I don’t know about you. But watching our Penguins get skewered yesterday afternoon by the Minnesota Wild was tougher for me to swallow than a leftover turkey sandwich without the mayo. Especially after the Pens had demolished a very tough Rangers squad only two days earlier in arguably their finest effort of the season.
Indeed, the team’s play leading up to the quarter pole of the 2016-17 campaign has been positively bipolar. Up one game. Down the next.
“It’s hard for me to try to explain it,” said exasperated Penguins coach Mike Sullivan. “If I could, I could probably solve it.”
There are plenty of factors contributing to the team’s recent slide. Injuries to feisty crease crashers Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz, for one.
Poor decision-making hasn’t helped.
“We’ve got to do a better job of taking care of the puck in that end zone,” Sullivan noted. “If we’re not sure, sometimes the best play is no play. We’ve got to have more of a conscience on where we’re putting pucks.”
An unsettled defensive mix is an issue, too. While the third pairing of Ian Cole and Justin Schultz has been a pleasant surprise, the top two tandems have struggled at times. Sullivan only recently reshuffled the deck, teaming Brian Dumoulin with old partner, Trevor Daley, while elevating Olli Maatta to the number-one pairing beside Kris Letang.
Then there’s goaltending. Truth be told, the Pens have been a far different club with Matt Murray guarding the net than Marc-Andre Fleury. When the kid plays, they resemble Stanley Cup champs. With “Flower” between the pipes, they morph into The Bad News Bears on ice.
A classic case of the chicken or the egg. Is the goaltender’s performance a by-product of his team’s play? Or does the team takes its cue from the goalie?
Predominantly the latter, I say. When Murray tends the twine, the Penguins appear much more structured and settled. The numbers support my observation. The locals have yielded an average of 28.7 shots on goal per 60 minutes with the Thunder Bay native in net. Perfectly in line with the 29.4 they allowed during the 2015-16 regular season.
With Fleury? The average spikes to an ungodly 34.3. An unfortunate reflection of Flower’s frenetic style?
Perhaps.
Although not for a lack of effort, there’s no denying No. 29’s struggled this season. His .901 save percentage lags far below the league norm (.914 according to Quainthockey.com). Likewise, Fleury’s inflated goals against average (3.38) harkens back to the days of Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and skinny brown pads.
Maybe he’s having trouble adapting to his new role as a part-time starter. With seven seasons of 60-plus games, Flower’s accustomed to a hefty workload. Or maybe, somewhere in the back of his mind, he realizes his days in a Penguins uniform likely are numbered.
Whatever the root cause, Fleury appears to be pressing. When he presses, he makes mistakes.
Take the grievous 5-2 home-ice loss to the Rangers on November 21, for example. The Pens raced to a quick lead on a pair of feel-good goals by rookie Jake Guentzel. The building was rocking; the black and gold appeared to have the game well in hand. Then New York’s Rick Nash scored from point-blank range early in the second period, set up by an unfortunate bounce off a sprawling Schultz.
The goal clearly wasn’t Fleury’s fault. But he reacted as if it were. He began to scramble and overcompensate, culminating in a puck-handling gaffe that led directly to the Rangers’ second goal. A tally that knotted the score at 2-2 and sucked the air out of PPG Paints Arena. Shades of his lone playoff start against Tampa Bay last spring.
It was all downhill after that.
Flower’s mental makeup stands in stark contrast to Murray, who seems to shake off goals—even the occasional softie—with a preternatural cool. A quality Sullivan lauded on numerous occasions during the Cup run.
So what’s a coach to do? It would seem incredibly harsh to consign Fleury to a backup role, given his career achievements and immense popularity among his teammates. Perhaps you pull the two-time team MVP from the rotation for a brief spell and afford him a chance to reset.
Then there’s the option no one wants to consider, but which may well be the best thing for him and, ultimately, the team.
A trade.
In the meantime, here’s hoping Flower’s able to work through his funk.
Same with our Penguins.
Hi Guys,
I want to say, ‘What a difference a year makes or We are the Cup Champions and we are never wrong,” however when you look at the facts and not the emotions of this issue, as you both said, Murray is the better Goalie !! According to your sample size anyway and the fact the team plays better with Murray in net than with MAF. Nobody wants to admit that publicly.
I believe that MAF is playing his way off the Team and he will be traded. Unfortunately, if he continues to lose, and given his age and previous reputation as a ” choker” under pressure, our return for MAF will not be as great as many expect. In my opinion his days are numbered in Pittsburgh, but as you both know,I have been wrong many times before.
Cheers.
Hey Jim,
We all are wrong at times, but it seems to me that I remember you made several spot on predictions in a row last year and in this case the laws of probability are on your side. Unfortunately, it does appear that MAF has locked himself into a self defeating, downward spiral with MAF his own worst enemy and therefore he, himself his best hope to recover. MAF needs to find away to mentally divorce himself from his recent bad play, forget the pressure of no longer being the undisputed best goalie on the team and just play for the fun of the game. If he can do that his talent will become extremely evident again.
However, your statement “his days are numbered” will most likely come true. Even though I think MAF still has the skill to be a top flight starter in this league, when he is on top of his game, Murray is both younger and better. As I have written several places before, Murray controls the game while MAF reacts to the game.
There are many who have advanced the idea of blaming the team for letting MAF down because the stats are starting to tilt that way. It was even mentioned on TV during the last broadcast. However, I am not in that camp. I assert that the diverging stats are more a result of style of play of the goalie than the rest of the team. I contend that the reason Murray faces less shots is that he controls the rebounds better, absorbing them or directing them away from high traffic areas whereas MAF gives up more rebounds all together and has much less control over where the rebounds go. I also contend that MAF, although strong with his stick, goes through periods of bad decisions with respect to holding the puck and, or directing dumped pucks to his D.
I can even make a good case for some of the bad decisions by some of the D including Letang to be a result of MAFs slump. When a team is constantly having to play catch up hockey, the D has to take greater chances to catch up, often leading to odd man breaks or bad passes in their own zone to try and break-out faster. The longer a goalie goes through a slump, the more pressure gets put on the rest of the team to score more and more goals. If a team knows their goalie is playing well enough to have a very good chance to make a 3 or less goal game stand up, the looser the skaters can play.
In my mind the worst of the situation comes down to two points (if he gets traded now); I really like MAF and do not want his last days in Pgh to be this bloating GAA and nose diving Sv%. I want to remember him as the goalie who kept the team together when they couldn’t buy a goal. And second, as you write, MAFs stock is dropping. The return the Pens will get, if he doesn’t right the ship, is not going to be much. Worse than that, MAF will come around again and end up being a super bargain for his new team and probably have some great games against the Pens.
Hey Coach,
Great analysis as always. I think we are all on the same page with regards to the future of MAF. Just the timing of it is all we really are discussing. So the big question is, Where does he go ? As you noted we can not really trade within our conference and play against him 5 or 6 times a season. The fans would revolt ! I think it has to be out west.
What do you think ?
Cheers
Hey Jim,
That’s an interesting question, my thoughts on the Goaltending quandary?
I read an interesting article recently, an interview with JR where he acknowledges that the goaltending situation isn’t working out as well as he thought at one point then back tracks a little saying he isn’t planning any roster moves. at another point, although the way the article/quote read it appeared that he may actually be considering something but for PR purposes is hedging his bets.
But back to the question; I really like Rick’s proposal (below) but I doubt that Calgary will go for it, even if we give them both Maatta and Pouliot, at least not at this point. True enough, Calgary’s trading for Elliot looks like the biggest failure of the off season, Chad Johnson is playing fairly well and Hamilton is Calgary’s best D man. Unless Johnson falters big time and soon, I wouldn’t make the deal, not the way Fleury is playing. Maybe if Fleury does catch fire.
And from our stand point, I wouldn’t mind at all in having Hamilton on this roster; Letang, Daley, Schultz, and Hamilton, but I would be very afraid of games Elliot was in goal and would be praying Murray could play out the season and post-season without many breaks.
I’ll have to think about this one. I started looking at rosters of potential trade partners (Teams in need of goaltending outside our division, preferably conference too) to see what I might want to ask for in exchange for Fleury. With MAFs salary, my guess is that we would have to flip goalies in the trade. For Dallas I definitely don’t want Lehtonen, I might deal with them if Niemi was the goalie in the deal, but not Lehtonen. Varlamov from Col? They have similar stats, could Varlamov play back-up?
(I am thinking as I am writing) another concern, especially since teams are probably going to want to exchange bigger salaried goalies is does that goalie have a no trade clause. I would hate to flip goalies and get a lesser goalie that has a no trade clause.
Let me think a little longer on this. It really isn’t that simple.
Hey Rick,
Great stuff!
I like MAF. I would love to see him break out of his slump, for his sake and for the teams.
I am in the camp of those who really feel a lot of MAFs drop in level of play is coming from his lack of playing time. But as much as I like MAF, Murray is at least a little better even when they are both on top of their games so unfortunately for MAF this may be the best he can get in the way of playing time. For that reason, I would advocate trading him and trading him somewhere where he can get the bulk of the playing time. He deserves to be a starter.
Not sure if you are as big of a stat geek as I am but the NHL web site has a new engine that allows you to search players stats as cumulative by games. USing that engine I found the following interesting stats.
In the 9 games played before Murray came back Fleury compiled a record of 6-2-1 with a GAA 3.09 and a SV% of 0.909
In the 13 games the Pens have played since Murray has come back, the goalies have been Roughly splitting time in goal with Murray getting a slight edge (7 starts for Murray, 5 for Fleury), In that time Fleury’s record is 0-3-2 with a 3.82 GAA and a SV% of 0.889.
But lets talk about somethings that may be positive; Jake Guentzel, how about that kid. He looks really good. I don’t know what Sullivan plans to do when Kunitz and Hornqvist get healthy but I sort of hate to see him sent down. I know it has only been 3 games but he looks like he is developing the same type of chemistry with Malkin that James Neal had. It may be hard to keep him down on the farm.
If Guentzel develops that type of chemistry with the Neal baggage, I would really enjoy watching another deep play-off run/Cup with Crosby-Hornqvist-Sheary/Kunitz, HBK, and Malkin with a Neal-like winger.
Also, I agree the D has looked ragged but I do think that Schultz, Cole, and even Daley deserve shout-outs. Schultz and Cole are approaching double digit +/- on a team that is struggling with its goal differential. As for Daley, I really watched his last couple of games paired with Maatta as his partner. He really worked hard trying to cover-up Maatta’s slow footedness. I stopped counting the number of times I saw him race back to run a pick when opposing forecheckers looked like they were about ready to exploit Maatta or pressure players who had gained a step on his partner.
In the end regardless of who is in goal or on D let’s go Pens!!
We still are the champs until someone can dethrone us.
Sorry, I meant without the baggage. James Neal was a head case. If Guentzel has the chemistry without the baggage that is a good thing.
Hey Other Rick,
Great observations and comments, as always.
I hope I didn’t come off as being too critical of Fleury. Hockey is a team game, and the way the Pens have played in front of him has certainly affected his performance to a degree. And, from all accounts, MAF is just a super good guy and teammate. Truly beloved.
Still, there’s no question he’s been off his game. At times his play has reminded me of the disastrous 2012 playoff loss to the Flyers, as well as the 2013 series against the Islanders when Dan Bylsma had little choice but to pull him in favor of Tomas Vokoun. Same dynamic, in a way. He’s under a lot of heat. But he’s getting beat on some pretty routine shots, too.
I think it’s largely a confidence issue at this stage. Maybe Mike Sullivan can target his next start for an “inoffensive” foe. Anyway …
…sure was nice to see the Pens pull out a “w” last night against Jersey. They really needed that one. Huge goal by Sid … what a play. To have the skill and presence of mind to first fish the puck out of Andy Greene’s skates, then settle it and roof it with time ticking away … my goodness. Pretty goal by Tom Kuhnhackl, too, who—as we’ve discussed—is well-schooled and possesses some underrated skill.
I agree about Jake Guentzel. He’s ready to step in right now. And we sure could use a consistent scorer on wing. Scott Wilson’s okay for a bottom-six role, but miscast on the top two lines. Almost wouldn’t mind seeing Garrett Wilson, a bigger guy with a little more sand who’s producing at Wilkes-Barre, get a shot in his place. Oskar Sundqvist’s doing really well with the Baby Pens, too, although there just isn’t room for him at the moment.
A nice problem to have. Wish we had the same issues on defense, where we’re a little vulnerable. If Fleury is eventually dealt I think it will be for a d-man. The Pens were rumored to have interest in Calgary’s Doug Hamilton, a big kid with offensive skills. He and Flower have pretty much the same cap hit. Maybe we kick in Olli Maatta (or Derrick Pouliot) and get Brian Elliott to back up Matt Murray.
Rick
Hey Rick,
No I don’t think you were that critical of MAF, but then again we have talked enough for me to know what you meant. However, there are aome people out there that are so polarized one way or the other that they don’t always read completely what is written and assume the worst, so when I write anything anymore I may be oversensitized to them and try to reassure them that I actually like both goalies and see them both as Number 1s. I just think that Murray is at least a shade better.
It was an ugly win last night, but I have always been of the camp that great teams and players find a way to win even when they aren’t on top of their game and actually deserve to win. That is one of the reasons I like Murray. Yes, he is like every other goalie, he will give up a soft goal, but he always seems to shake it off. Even though he was very average at the beginning of the game, being just good enough to keep the score within reach, he stood on his head and made some great saves later in the game and in the shootout.
I haven’t really had a chance to see Garrett Wilson play and I hate to admit it but I just checked the Wilkes-Barre stats after you referenced it, so I didn’t know he was producing so well. I do think your idea of bringing him up does have a lot of merit, particularly if he is the type of player who really likes to play in front of the net. With Hornqvist and Kunitz out he may be the best man to replace one of them in the line-up particularly on the PP.
Would he have to clear wavers when Hornqvist and/or Kunitz come back and the Pens look to send him down? If he does have to clear wavers then that is the only reason I would not want to see him come up right now and would rather take some lumps for a couple of games. Of course, Sullivan may want to use Sestito on the PP as the net front mayhem man until Hornqvist and Kunitz get back. He may get a surprise and find that Sestito can do more than be the big dog on the porch. He wouldn’t be the first big enforcer type who found some success on the PP, I remember Steve McKenna picked up 5 PPGs one season in the early 2000s.
Also, as you know have been a big Sundqvist fan. I love the way he plays great positional hockey and protects the puck with his body. But as you note, right now, with Crosby, Malkin, Bonino, and Cullen at Center, there doesn’t seem to be room for him. And the way Fehr played the last couple of games at center while Cullen has been spotting up on Crosby’s LW it may be best to let him skate down in WBS. However, I do have some concern that he isn’t getting any NHL experience, there is a difference and Cullen is no guarentee to return next year, and with Bonino an UFA, neother is he.
Your trade proposal is very interesting. With all the lost draft picks over the last couple of years I have tended to focus on getting draft picks back in trades but Hamilton has had some good seasons and just might be a perfect fit for Sullivans system and Fleury and Maatta would both get a fresh start. Question is; has Chad Johnson played well enough for Calgary to want to throw their confidence behind him and just write off Elliot as their back-up.
Let’s see what the Pens do with their little break. Hopefully they can use the time effectively to address some of their weaknesses. If they can get Hornqvist back in that time that is a major bonus.
Hi Rick,
Trading O. Maatta. Last year I bragged what a great signing he was and at 6 years for only 4.1 million per season. Jimmy R. was a magician we all thought. But what happened ? One of two possible things….either the entire league got faster by 1 step or Olli lost a step. To me he never was the same player he was before his accident and his new 6 year contract.
I was hoping his stint in the Army and the World Cup would bring him back to all star form. It appears not. Yes the kid is still 21-22 years old and has a lot of hockey in him still, but his foot speed is an issue. I agree with you in that he could become trade bait for another bigger deal. Who would ever thought such a thing 2 years ago. Where would you send him Rick ?
Cheers.