Before I begin, let me be clear. There’s absolutely no official basis for what you’re about to read. I don’t have any inside sources. Or connections to the Penguins. Nothing other than my instincts and fertile imagination to draw from.
Here goes. I can’t help but feel there might be a Reverend in the Penguins’ future. As in former black-and-gold defenseman Ben Lovejoy.
Before you label me an imbecile and swear off PenguinPoop forever, hear me out.
The Pens obviously need defensive help. Someone solid and reliable, and a good skater to boot. A guy who can make a decent first pass and mesh comfortably with coach Mike Sullivan’s up-tempo style.
In all likelihood, we won’t have much to offer. My guess is, Jim Rutherford wants to part with as few pieces from his present roster as possible. Perhaps a mid-round draft pick and/or marginal prospect.
Given those parameters, whose image starts to coalesce in your general manager’s crystal ball?
Yep. Lovejoy’s. Or a reasonable facsimile.
To digress for a moment, we’re probably all craving a sexy pickup. Perhaps a colossus like Brent Burns or Dustin Byfuglien. Possessing Shea Weber’s cannon blast of a shot and Kris Letang’s golden wheels.
Good luck finding him. Especially given the present NHL playoff picture. One in which most teams still have a feasible shot at the postseason. And, thus, aren’t likely to sell off the farm at the upcoming trade deadline.
Back to Lovejoy. True to form, his stats this season with New Jersey are exceedingly modest. In 60 games with the offensively challenged Devils, the Dartmouth grad’s tallied a goal and six points to go with a minus-4.
He’s registered 68 hits and 107 blocked shots while averaging a shade under 21 minutes of ice time. Second among Jersey defenders and similar to the workload he shouldered following his arrival at the trade deadline two seasons ago in a straight-up swap for Simon Despres.
Hardly the stuff of Norris Trophy winners.
However, Lovejoy’s true value never has been measured in numbers or metrics. While he’s best on the third pairing, the 32-year-old’s capable of stepping into a more prominent role should the need arise. Lovejoy’s universal skill set allows him to blend seamlessly with a variety of partners. Much as he did during his recent tour of duty with the Pens.
Blessed with outstanding lateral mobility, he’s extremely agile on skates. Part of the reason he’s such an effective penalty killer and trusted with the bulk of his team’s defensive-zone starts (66.1 percent with the Devils).
Ben brings a ton of intangibles, too, including a willingness to bang and an upbeat, outgoing personality that endeared him to his former Penguins teammates. With a cap hit of $2.67 million, he’s reasonably priced.
Best of all, Lovejoy’s a known commodity. What you see is what you get, game in and game out. No surprises.
Can I get an amen?
Ice Chips
Justin Schultz is progressing through his concussion protocol and may be available for Saturday night’s Stadium Series contest with Philadelphia. The high-scoring defenseman has missed the past three games.
No word of yet on the severity of Trevor Daley’s lower-body injury. Conor Sheary is about a week away from returning, according to Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Bryan Rust’s injury likely will keep him sidelined for most of the homestretch.
Pens picked up a d-man 35 yr old – 6’3″ Ron Hainsey from Carolina for Danny Kristo & a second round pick. Carolina is paying 1/2 of Hainsey’s salary.
Hey Phil,
Thanks for the update. Hainsey was one of the names being kicked around to be traded and given a shot at a Cup run. Not sure I would have valued him enough to give up a 2nd round pick and a prospect but if the Pens are bent on an all out effort to make a Cup run I could have guessed they would overpay for a rental.
This is the type of under the radar type deal I expected though.
Thanks for the update, Phil … 🙂
Hi guys … As some of you may remember, I am (still!) in the process of trying to learn how the salary cap works, which is why I’m curious that Carolina is willing to pay half of Hainsey’s salary. Does that say anything to you guys about what Rutherford might have in mind? I mean, do you think it was it a condition of the deal to allow further wiggle room for another trade? Also, how does “LTIR” work in this situation? With a couple of the defencemen out for extended periods, could that come into play to free up cap space? And if they do put a player on LTIR now, can he come back during the playoffs?
Sorry, I just reread that paragraph, and realize it is just one merciless string of questions. It serves you all right for welcoming me into this group! 😉
Jayelene
Hi Jayelene
Always love your posts and questions. ☺
Keeps us on our toes.
I will try to answer a few cap questions and let the others handle the difficult ones.
1.Teams hold salary to sweeten the deal and allow the purchasing team more flexiblity to do other deals.So holding half of Rons salary allows JR more options to do another trade.2.The motivation for Carolina is to clear a player off their books that otherwise may be untradeable. (Like MAF at 5.75 million cap hit.)
3. During playoffs you can expand your player roster from 20 , 18 players and 2 Goalies to 25 players.
Plus the salary cap no longer applies once you start the play offs.4.LTIR…Long term injury reserve is a mechanism in the CBA that allows teams to put injured players off their books temporarily while they heal and teams can use the injured players salary and hire a replacement.The trick is if this was in October and Ollie was out for 6 weeks, and you hired a replacement, when Olli returns one player can not play because your are now over the cap. But because we are so close to the end of the season, we simply add Ollie to one of the extra 5 play offs spots, ( 25 – 20 ).
So I hope this clears it up a bit. I am not 100% but 90% sure because the CBA has a lot of unique clauses in it and it is impossible to know it all.
Thanks for your post.Super questions. Keep asking because a lot of others enjoy them as well.
Cheers
Jaylene
One last point I over looked.
JR was the former GM of Carolina for many years and Carolina has been for sale for at least 2 years. Still is.
Carolina will not be in the playoffs so this is a simple way to reduce costs for them and very few teams were willing to pay Ron’s full salary.
Cheers
Hi Jim,
I don’t know about keeping you guys on your toes … from what I read here, it seems to me you’re pretty much there, most of the time. But thanks for the kind words, anyway. And thanks for the explanations – they’re really helpful. In particular, I wasn’t aware of the roster expansion once the playoffs start, nor did I know that the salary cap no longer applies. It’s actually beginning to all come together for me now. (God help us all!) Thanks for the thorough explanation – I appreciate it!
Jayelene
Thanks, Jim.
Your explanation helped me, too … 🙂
Rick
Hey all,
Just read on the “Pittsburgh Post-Gazette” website that Trevor Daley had knee surgery and is expected to miss six weeks.
Ouch … 🙁
Rick
Are you kidding me Rick.!
A perfect storm….
When does Justin get back?
Soon I hope.
Thanks for the update.
Hey Rick, Jim, et al,
Jim given your opposition to Lovejoy and my statements about Colotado and working under JRs statement that the Pens are in it for the short term, all in to win, here is my trade offer and it is a blockbuster;
MAF, Bones, and Pouliot for
Landeskog, Tyutin, and either Wiercioch or Zadorov (I prefer Zadorov but will take Wiercioch if Sullie wants him instead)
MAF and Landeskog are relatively equal salary, $250K off, Tyutin and Bones are only $100K different, Pouliot, Wiercioch, or Zadorov are only $32k different
Varlamov had surgery for his lower body injury, they say he should recover by next year but that really is a crap shoot so to sweeten the deal (again working under the all in for this year mentality) I either retain $1.85mil or some portion there of, of MAFs salary over the next 2-years which offsets Colorado buying Varlamov out (MAF represents an upgrade in goal even if SV recovers). I then throw in a draft pick conditional to how much of MAFs salary I have to eat.
So for the Pens my line up will read;
On Offense – LW – C – RW
Landeskog – Crosby – Sheary
Guentzel – Malkin – Hornqvist
Hagelin – Fehr/Cullen/Sundqvist – Kessel
Kunitz/Wilson – Fehr/Cullen/Sundqvist – Kuhnhackl/Fehr
When Rust comes back I will have to readjust my lineup a bit but no big deal there
On Defense
Cole – Schultz
Tyutin/Zadorov – Letang
Domoulin/Wiercioch – Daley
Honestly, I comfortable with Jarry or DeSmith as the back-up the rest of the year but the Pens could get a back-up if they are too afraid of my move by moving Fehr/Sundqvist/Kuhnhackl/Domoulin/Maatta
No I don’t think the Pens will make my bold move, they have painted themselves into a box with their insistence on keeping MAF, but this is my suggestion.
Now I will wait for anyone else’s thoughts
Hey Other Rick,
I was going to fashion this into a post. But somehow I think the Daley injury might render it a moot point, given that we really need to concentrate on our D. But here goes:
Of all the players I’ve heard bandied about, Landeskog is the one I covet. Big, strong, talented—already a captain at age 24. Plays a power game and doesn’t shy away from the rough stuff. A super-sized version of Patric Hornqvist, with a bit more skill. About as close as you can get to a 2017 version of Rick Tocchet.
He just feels like a Penguin-type player, doesn’t he? I think he’d be the perfect addition.
I just don’t know if the Pens can offer what it would take to land him. Keep in mind, being one of the few sellers, Colorado’s going to be besieged with offers. Which means we’re going to have to pony up.
Obviously, we’d have to part with Fleury as the centerpiece on our part to make it work, cap-wise. It’s really tough to gauge how much interest Avalanche GM Joe Sakic would have in “Flower.” While I’m no insider, my sense is the Avalanche are happy with the play of 24-year-old goalie Calvin Pickard. Putting myself in Sakic’s shoes, would I want to tie up $5.7 mil/year for the next two seasons for a 32-year-old goalie in Fleury on a rebuilding team, when I already have a kid I like?
Probably not.
Here’s another catch. Subjective, of course. I believe we MUST receive a competent backup goalie in any deal for Fleury. Worst-case scenario. On the last day of March, Matt Murray gets bonked in the head with a shot and suffers a concussion. (Sound familiar?) Do you really want to ride an untested kid like Tristan Jarry going into the playoffs?
I know everybody’s high on him. And maybe one day he’ll be a good (or very good) NHL goalie. But the likelihood of him stepping in and playing the way Murray did last spring is slim.
For the sake of keeping this going (again, I’d love to get Landeskog), let’s say Sakic agrees to take Fleury. He’ll give us Pickard to serve as a backup, but he wants Jarry for down the road. JR agrees (remember, we’ve got Filip Gustavsson behind him on the depth chart).
At this stage, we’ve got about $6.5 mil in cap hit coming to us and $6.3 mil going out. Almost a wash.
Except Sakic wants a forward prospect to replace Landeskog. He’s got his eyes on Jake Guentzel. JR tries to get him to bite on Daniel Sprong instead, but nothing doing. Joe wants Guentzel.
Do you go ahead? Or do you call it off?
As much as I like Guentzel, I say okay. I’ll throw in Jake for the opportunity to get Landeskog. But give me something, too. Say, a second-round pick.
Okay says Joe.
How about a defenseman? Other Rick, like your call on Zadorov, but he fractured an ankle two days ago and is out for the season. Given his enormous upside, I can’t imagine Sakic entertaining an offer for him. And the remaining pickins’ are slim.
I suppose Tyutin is kind of the Russian version of Lovejoy. Probably a bit more offensive upside; a bit more erratic on D. Wiercioch has size, mobility and a shot, but also is erratic. And Sakic’s not giving either of ‘em away. He wants Derrick Pouliot.
If JR says no, let’s stick with what we had before, you’ve got Fleury ($5.7), Jarry ($0.63) and Guentzel ($0.73) going west for Landeskog ($5.5) and Pickard ($1.0) and a second-round pick.
If JR says yes to Wiercioch ($0.8) for Pouliot ($0.86) it’s pretty much a wash.
Rick
Hey Rick,
First of all I just want to reiterate that I seriously doubt the Pens are/would entertain this trade offer, it is just what I would do.
Rick you suggest that Sakic may prefer a more ready prospect like Geuntzel rather than a draft pick; Like you I say yes. If I am getting Landeskog, I agree, but I am now less amicable to giving up draft picks or at least high round ones.
Of course, given as deep as the Pens are right now at RW, I may try your idea of getting him to bite on Sprong.
Also, I didn’t see Zadorov being injured but still like him over Wiercioch. With the Pens picking up Hainsey as Phil reports, I think I can wait until later to see him in a Penguin jersey. However, I will of course go with Sullie’s preference, if wants Wiercioch I go after Wiercioch.
Sakic may give lip service to liking Pickard but that may all it is. Pickard is 24 still young by goalie standards so maybe he is Colorados future but teams need revenue now. MAF is a solid No 1 and can make Colorados rebuilding phase a lot shorter. And since I would look elsewhere for my back-up, if at all, I am not looking at Pickard.
Sorry, but if Murray goes down for any protracted period of time, I bite the bullet. The chances of him getting hurt granted are not exactly negligible, but the chances of Skaters, improtant skater; Fs and D are much higher and if I gamble anywhere I like the odds of Murray not missing more than 1 or 2 games in the play-offs.
Also, I don’t care if the have both Murray and Fleury, it isn’t going to a darn bit of good unless they can find a way to get opponent zone time and shot attempts down.
Sakic, not wanting to tie up 5.7 mil in an aging veteran, if he doesn’t make the deal, he still has to Valmarov’s contract is pretty much the same, so he will still have to pay that 5.7mil. If he is going to have to pay it anyway, I think he may want more bang for his buck.
Tuytin may not be that much different than Lovejoy, but he is purely a rental and is gone next year unless the Pens find themselves needing to make him an offer.
All three of the D I mentioned may either be young and erratic or old and erratic but how much of that is because of who they have been paired with? To go along with that, what the Pens have right now on D isn’t working. Murray and Fleury are getting assaulted with flying rubber. Yes , the D is often blocking 20 or more of those shots, but look at what it is doing to the D. They are undersized to begin with and running around in their own zone, blocking shots and getting hit by bigger forwards are generally wearing them down. So knowing what I have isn’t working, I roll the dice and bring in new bodies. At worse I still have my core D to fall back on, Tuytin, Wiercioch, Hainsey, or Zadarov will be at best a second pairing, and when Maatta comes back, 3rd pairing, unless they really distinguish themselves.
And if I am JR and get pressure about a back-up from above, then I trade elsewhere for a back-up.
The more I think about the deal, the more workable I think it is, however as I said at the outset I am under no delusions that the Pens will pursue the idea even if they read this blog.
Hey Rick….
Noooooooooooo ! With over 200 d men in the league and another 50 or 60 qualified d men playing outside the NHL, surely we can find someone younger.
Especially with a 2.3 + million pro rated salary cap hit.
Maybe it is not possible,but I am sure hoping and praying for it to happen.
Amen.
Hey Jim,
I mentioned elsewhere that Colorado has a couple to three players I would look at over Lovejoy, Wiercioch ($800K), Zadorov (832K), and Tyutin ($2M). Tyutin could be simply a rental player, he is on a 1yr contract and though he is long in the tooth too, he has at times put up big numbers in Hits and Blks and at 6’2, 221lbs does represent an upgrade in size. Zadorov has loads of size at 6’5, 230lbs and is putting up big numbers in hits and blks. I don’t watch Colorado regularly so I don’t have a good feel for him, but the scouting reports say he has a good shot and good first pass for transition game but that he is more of a stay at home D man and that as a young D man 21yrs of age can at times be overly agressive and take himself out of the play. And Wiercioch has Domoulin type size 6’5, 200lbs, good skater, offensive upside, and would seem to fit Sullivan’s Mobile D mentality.
All three represent an upgrade in physical size, 2 of which represent a significant upgrade in physical play, and 1 can be a pure rental. None of the 3 are putting up sterling numbers, nor is their team, but transplant them onto the Pens roster, infront of better goaltending, behind more confident veteran, talented forwards, surrounding them with Schultz, Letang, and Daley to complement those O talents with maybe some toughness to insulate those big three from liberties (right now all we have is Cole) and add Sullivan’s genius for getting the best out of a player and I think any or all three may be better than Lovejoy and still a viable option.
As I said below, I do think Lovejoy would add something to the team and I certainly wouldn’t despair should that be the track the Pens go down, the below radar d men I have been contemplating are on a team that has pretty much said they are in fire sale mode.
I hear ya’ Jim, loud and clear… 🙂
I certainly understand your reservations about Lovejoy, his age in particular. For the record, he’s got two seasons left on the contract he signed with the Devils last summer. While they’re different types of players, I know none of us wants to see another Rob Scuderi situation play out.
I do think in addition to acquiring a Lovejoy-type, Rutherford will set his sights a little higher up the ladder for another defenseman. Maybe he’s not all that much of a leap—ability-wise—but I find Detroit’s Brendan Smith an intriguing possibility. He’s got some size and grit and can skate.
Anyway, it won’t be long now. The deadline approaches …
Rick
Hey Rick,
I’ll give you an Amen! You know my biases but I know that Lovejoy is a step up from where the Pens are right now. You are right, I would love to see the Pens land a Byfigulen or Shattenkirk. There are even three guys on Colorado’s roster that I would consider. But truth be told, I do not see any blockbusters happening. If the Pens did get Lovejoy back without getting fleeced (only giving up equalish value) I would feel better than I do now.