I don’t know about you. But for me, math and fun don’t often go together. Especially if we’re talking trigonometry or calculus (shudder).
Still, having reached the halfway mark of the 2016-17 NHL season, I thought it might be kind of enjoyable to do some Penguins projections.
There’s no rocket science involved, but some subjectivity. For skaters who’ve played a full slate of games, I simply doubled their present output. The same goes for “bubble” players and call-ups like Eric Fehr and Steve Oleksy, and goalies Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray.
In the cases where players have missed time due to illness or injury, such as Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang, I assumed a full complement of games in the second half and applied their present scoring rate.
For an extra twist, I compared the projections to their career averages entering the current season, based on the estimated number of games played for ’16-17.
On a team basis? The black and gold is on pace to go 52-20-10, with 114 points. Which would represent the second highest win and point totals in the club’s storied 50-year history.
If the Pens continue to produce at the same rate? They’ll tally 284 goals, the most since ’96-97, and yield 236, the highest since the ’08-09 Cup winners.
| SCORING | ||||||||
| 2016-17 Season |
NHL Career Average |
|||||||
| Player | POS | GP | G | A | PTS | G | A | PTS |
| Crosby | C | 76 | 56 | 41 | 97 | 36 | 65 | 101 |
| Malkin | C | 82 | 34 | 56 | 90 | 38 | 59 | 97 |
| Kessel | RW | 82 | 26 | 56 | 82 | 30 | 33 | 63 |
| Sheary | LW | 75 | 24 | 31 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 17 |
| Letang | D | 70 | 7 | 46 | 53 | 10 | 34 | 44 |
| Schultz | D | 82 | 14 | 38 | 52 | 9 | 24 | 33 |
| Hornqvist | RW | 76 | 22 | 28 | 50 | 23 | 24 | 47 |
| Kunitz | LW | 76 | 9 | 28 | 37 | 22 | 29 | 51 |
| Bonino | C | 82 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 14 | 23 | 37 |
| Rust | RW | 79 | 21 | 14 | 35 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| Cullen | C | 82 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 15 | 27 | 42 |
| Hagelin | LW | 82 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 17 | 23 | 40 |
| Cole | D | 82 | 4 | 26 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 16 |
| Daley | D | 77 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 7 | 17 | 24 |
| Wilson | LW | 79 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
| Fehr | RW | 70 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Dumoulin | D | 70 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| Kuhnhackl | RW | 65 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| Guentzel | LW | 10 | 6 | 2 | 8 | — | — | — |
| Maatta | D | 80 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 28 |
| Ruhwedel | D | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Murray | G | 40 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oleksy | D | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Sestito | LW | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Fleury | G | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pouliot | D | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Warsofsky | D | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| GOALTENDING | ||||||||
| 2016-17 Season |
NHL Career Average |
|||||||
| Player | POS | GP | SH | GAA | SV% | SH | GAA | SV% |
| Murray | G | 40 | 4 | 2.28 | .925 | 3 | 2.00 | .930 |
| Fleury | G | 52 | 0 | 3.12 | .908 | 3 | 2.56 | .912 |
Hey Rick,
You know I am a Stat geek so things like this always interest me. I do keep a running look at what the Pens 82 game projected is but I don’t have the career avg juxtapose. It is interesting, but shouldn’t be all that surprising. The older players numbers should be dropping a little as the kids start to take a little more prominent role.
You also tweaked my interest, I am going to have to take a look at how the Shots Against totals as a team stack up against the last couple of seasons, a little later today.
Hopefully, Either Sullivan comes up with a new breakout scheme that starts cutting down D-zone time or JR can swing a deal for a new D man, a bigger D man.
Hey Rick,
You kind a took this ” arm chair ” GM comment I made yesterday to a new level my friend. You did a lot of work as usual. 🙂
So I accept the challenge. All the other Pens Poopers out there step up, and make a prediction as well. Keep track Rick, and we will see who is closest at seasons end. This could be Fun. New and old a like. Lets hear from you.
Here goes my predictions. ( I finish last for sure ).
1. Total points in the regular season – 104. ( my logic is the real contenders will start to show up and the games will get a lot harder for us moving forward because we are the defending champs.No nights off !
2. Crosby will get 48 goals and 44 assists for 92 points.
3. Malkin will catch fire and have 42 goals and 52 assists for 94 points.
4. Kessel will be Kessel and not start to play until the playoffs. Fine with me.
I agree with you he will get 26 Goals and 56 assists for 82 points.
5. Schultz will get more points than Letang because they simply over play Letang and he will have injuries. I have Schultz at 18 goals and 48 assists for 66 points.
6. Kris Letang will be about 50 points for the season.
For space sake I am not doing the rest of the team except to say that MAF will not be on the team come trade deadline and Murray will be the man.
So there you have it Rick. Lets see what the others have to say.
I have one caveat Rick … If a major trade, multi player trade occurs then all bets are off.
Cheers,
Great stuff, Jim … 🙂
We’ve got you on record for all to see. I’ll bet you’ll be more right than you think, my friend … 🙂
Rick
Hey Rick.
So far only the 2 of us have made predictions.
There are a lot more PP followers out there.
Let’s see if they accept the challenge.
Hope so..☺