Penguins Update: Where We Stand Today

1. Hey all,

   Once again, I feel compelled to come to Conor Sheary’s defense.
   Everyone seems to be of the opinion that much of Sheary’s success was due to playing on a line with Sidney Crosby.

   True, perhaps. But so is the converse. Sheary helped Sid…a lot.

   When Sheary missed basically the month of February, Sid’s numbers took a tumble. Prior to Conor’s absence, Crosby had 56 points in 43 games, an average of 1.3 PPG. During Sheary’s 13-game absence, Sid had 11 points. An average of 0.85. Big difference.

   After Conor returned? Sid averaged 1.22 PPG.

   The Pens were a deceptive 7-3-3 when Sheary was out. They won five in a row when he returned.

   A few other facts. Sheary was third on the Pens in even-strength scoring (21+27=48). Virtually tied with Evgeni Malkin (22+27=49), who played one more game. Well ahead of Phil Kessel (15+25=40), who played 21 more games. Way ahead of Patric Hornqvist (11+16=27).

   I stand by what I said before. This kid’s a better player than anyone gives him credit for.

   Rick

   PS—Forgot to mention…Sid was pointless in 22 of his 75 regular-season games (29 percent). Six of those games came during Sheary’s 13-game absence (46 percent).

   1. Don’t get me wrong Rick,

      I liked what Sheary did for the team last year, or should I say how Sully used Sheary to get the big name players to toe the line but sitting them in favor of that 5′ something fireplug. I also appreciate the numbers he put up with Crosby during the regular season.

      However, let’s look at the last 2 playoff years, Sheary’s Stats were; 45GP 6G 17A 23Pts -6+/- and 7.3%S%. His point total was good for 10th place among Fs (bottom 3), his P60 was also only good enough for 10th place, his -6 was worst among Fs. His S% was 14th among Fs (not even bottom 6).

      I am sorry Rick, I am going back to my thoughts on Sheary when he first came up. Yes I started to want to believe in the little David playing among the Goliaths but not at anything near $4mil.

      Maybe if the Pens were a team looking just to get into the playoffs for the first time in a long time, a player who could produce dueing the regular season and then disappear once the playoffs starts may appear attractive but not a team that is looking to 3peat. More importantly, when a team is a “team” and a player with Schultz’s talent takes a contract that could be argued to be below his open market worth to stay on that “team” a player like Sheary should not be asking for anything close to $4mil.

      For that matter nor should Dumoulin. Schultz was a +36 over these last two years with the Pens, Dumoulin was a +11. That is 1/3 of what Schultz but $4mil is what about 2/3 of Schultz.

      No, I stand by what I wrote earlier, no arguments have swyed my opinion. Trade bith of them for the good of the team.

      1. Hey Other Rick,

         I won’t disagree that Sheary would be overpaid at $4 million/year…at least at this stage of his career. And I’m not trying to suggest that he’s a potential franchise bulwark along the lines of Crosby or Malkin. His size mitigates against that. So do his playoff numbers, at least thus far.

         Still, Conor’s a highly effective and productive complementary player. I don’t think $2.5-$3 million is at all out of line for a player of his drive, energy and ability.

         Rick

         1. I agree Rick,

            I would have no problem if Sheary is asking for $3mil. But I would at least hope that JR would think so too at that price and we wouldn’t be talking about this right now. Then again who knows, maybe JR is being a skin flint trying to sign him for only $1mil, it is possible. If that is true then I would take back what I have said.

2. Hey Rick,

   Just looking a little closer at your listings, Kuhnhackl is actually a RW who shoots L. At times the Pens have played him at LW because of this, but like Rust it is not his natural position. More than likely, unless the Pens find a LW somewhere else, he will inherit the open LW position, but he may not be at his best playing there. Like many Europeans (Jagr was another) they play their off wing.

   1. Hey Other Rick,

      I’d seen a reference to the Pens moving Kuhnhackl to the left side. Truthfully, I don’t think he’ll see much time on right wing, given our depth.

      Also, hockeyreference.com lists Sheary as a left wing. And he is a left-handed shot. I know he’s played predominantly right wing with the Pens. But perhaps we’ve overlooked the possibility of shifting him to the port side, where we’re comparatively thin.

      Rick

3. Wow, great presentation! It looks like the Penguins are really over loaded on right wing.

   I would say the writing is on the wall for Sheary. Arbitration is just delaying the inevitable. Seriously, is Rutherford just waiting for Sheary to be signed until he makes his move for Center?

   1. Hey Phil,

      I had that thought too. It may be why he went to arbitration rather than giving a home team discount. He may be thinking, I could be finishing the season on a non playoff team so I might as well go for the money.

      1. Hey Coach, Phil,Rick
         If Sheary gets 4 to 4.5 million award from the arbitrator as some people suggest, I can tell you that it will upset the chemistry of this team. Schultz is only paid 5.5 million and he is worth 3 Shearys. Or how abut Matt Murray.The guy who won us 2 Cups! He is only paid 3.3 million. If you were Byran Rust or Daniel Sprong who needs new contracts in 2018…Their agents will remember the arbitrator of 2017 and his decision.
         I am sure JR knows the asking price from Sheary and his statement of only having 2 million to sign a new center to me means both Brian and Connor are getting big raises.
         Not good at all..
         Trade is the only salvation. But if their salaries are to high nobody will take him. (Sheary).
         Beyond our control as well. (Wrote an article about this very fact.)

         Cheers

         1. Agreed Jim,

            The longer this drags on the less I want to see these players in black and gold this coming season.

            1. Hey tOR, I think Dumoulin will be fine. I don’t think the Pens can afford to move any defensemen.

               I think the big difference with the two is that Sheary got where he is by being on Crosby’s line and as soon as he was removed from his line had very little production.

               Dumoulin in Sullivan’s eyes earned the #1 defensive shutdown position on his own having an incredible playoffs.

               1. Hey Phil,

                  It’s not that I am looking to dis Domoulin’s ability. He had an inconsistent regular season but came up fairly big in the playoffs. My biggest concern is the morale fall out. I have no idea what JR offered, he may have been rather insulting in his offer, but if he made anything resembling a fair offer and Domoulin balked, then my worry becomes how will that play out with the team dynamic. I am really appreciating how this team acts as a team. So, if one player starts to feel more important than others, Dumoulin has shown some shut down skill at least enough to be the best on a more less weak D. In the first 2 series it was really MAF who was the shut down D. And even later on Murray too slammed the door shut. Yes, both Gs had an off game, but over all they covered for a lot of sins by all of the D. Again, I don’t any of the numbers, and if you use Maatta’s contract as a bench mark, but he can’t justify more than $4 mil. If you use Schultz’s contract, he can’t really justify more than about $3.5 mil.

                  Granted, the arbitor will look at Shattenkirk’s and Orlov’s contracts but both of these guys are going to get over-payed, particularly Orlov.

               2. Hey Phil,
                  Why not just package a trade now for Sheary and sign Dumo before they get to arbitration. A lot of GM’s do not go to arbitration because they feel it favors the player and not the Team. Especially as Coach notes above if you have a few recent free agent signings that really high and distort the numbers than you DO NOT want an arbitrator calling the shots !!
                  His job is not to help the Pen’s… He is there to get the most money possible for the player….
                  I am really worried about this Phil.

            2. Hey all,

               I certainly understand everyone’s concerns. But with all due respect, I think we’re overreacting a bit.

               There’s no way I trade Brian Dumoulin. I’m not saying he’s a future Norris Trophy winner, but all-in-all he’s a really good, young defenseman. The type we can’t afford to give away.

               He’s the only one of our present defenders with any appreciable size, and he skates really well for a big man. I thought he matured a lot during the recent Cup run while displaying shutdown capabilities. He led us in ice time and shorthanded ice time. Dumo even developed a bit of a physical side to his game.

               Although he doesn’t play with quite the same edge, there are similarities between Dumo and Simon Despres. We all screamed bloody murder when JR traded the latter.

               To me, Dumo’s a keeper. Even if we have to slightly over pay.

               Along those lines, I know everybody wants to land an impact third-line center. Yes, Matt Duchene sure would look good wearing the black and gold. But barring a blockbuster where we cough up a player (or players) we don’t really want to part with, I don’t know if that’s going to happen. At least not in the short term.

               Perhaps the answer to our center woes is right under our nose. Rutherford seemed really high on Adam Johnson when he signed him this summer. Maybe Johnson fast tracks into our third-line center. The kid plays left wing, too.

               Stranger things have happened. Did anyone foresee Jake Guentzel’s emergence as an elite sniper last season?

               Also, everyone seems to be ignoring Carter Rowney. No, he’s not sexy. But he should make a solid fourth-line center.

               I trust that JR knows what he has in the system, and knows what he needs to do. It sounds like he’s got a realistic idea of what Dumoulin and Sheary will fetch in arbitration. Yes, it will probably be more than we’d like to pay. Name another NHL club that isn’t in the same predicament, or worse.

               The Rangers? They don’t even have a first-line center, let alone a third. The Caps? More holes than a chunk of Swiss cheese.

               Nirvana, it ain’t. Nor is it likely to be. But all things considered, I think we’re in a comparatively good place.

               Rick

               1. Hey Rick,
                  Agreed my friend..
                  I really do not think Dumo is the issue. Yes he will command a hefty raise, but conversely he was a steal for us this last 2 years at about 800 k a year. So now he is long over due for a raise to bring him in line with his peers. Yes it will cost us. But he is worth it. Big d men are in short supply. Especially ones that have 2 Cup rings on their hand.
                  The real issue here is what will Sheary receive in arbitration? Be rest assured that if his new contract was a reasonable number, that JR would have signed him already.
                  From looking at the situation from a far, most people see 53 points being scored by a second year budding star and next year he could have 70 points. If you follow that logic that could cost the Pen’s a lot of money.
                  Because you all see Sheary play everyday, you realize it was the play of Sidney that helped to get Sheary a lot of those points.
                  People from a far do NOT realize this !
                  The arbitrators do not live in Pittsburgh either.
                  Because Sheary went the US college route, when he entered the league he was older than the typical 19-20 year old from the Junior programs. He is 3 -4 years older and the arbitrator takes that fact into consideration as well. So if the arbitrator believes Sheary is just starting to play the game and he has an upside in his possible production, 70 points ??, he factors that in his decision.
                  That is my concern Rick….A $ 4 to 4.5 million dollar salary award by the Arbitrator to Sheary and then ” Houston, we have a problem “.
                  ( It makes no sense to me but if somebody thinks Sheary can get score 65 to 70 points..
                  He will get a big pay day.)
                  Good discussion .

   2. Thanks Phil,

      It seems JR’s waiting on the arbitration hearings before he makes a move. He probably wants to see how much he has to work with. Also, there’s an outside chance that Matt Cullen will come to a decision by then.

      Regarding our current team, just wanted to mention that RFA Jean-Sebastien Dea is still listed on the Pens web site roster (and CapFriendly). I believe he signed his offer sheet. However, it doesn’t appear he’s officially been signed yet.

      I don’t know if JR’s waiting to file Dea’s contract with the league (pending what happens with Dumoulin and Sheary) or if they’ve decided to let him walk.

      Rick

4. Hey Rick
   Thanks for sorting out the discrepancies between Cap Friendly and the Trib article.I wish he had the extra million to work with…but all makes sense.
   I am very concerned about the upcoming arbitration hearings and possible long term affects to our team.
   Very much so…

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