How do you like our chances?
The question’s been posed to me dozens of times over the past few days by friends and fellow hockey fans.
I tell ‘em the truth. I don’t know. Honestly, I don’t.
To me, the upcoming Penguins-Capitals series is too close to call. And, as much as I hate to write this being an ardent Pens fan, the outcome truly could go either way, especially with the Caps enjoying home-ice advantage.
Like so many others, including a number of our knowledgeable PenguinPoop readers, I’m deeply concerned with our play in the defensive zone. We experienced enough lapses during the Columbus series to…well…put it this way. Had we been a student in school, we’d have been held back a grade. That’s how bad we were at times.
They say looks can be deceiving. That was definitely the case against Columbus. Don’t let our glossy five-game conquest fool you. Scratch the surface, and there was trouble aplenty.
Among the 16 playoff teams, we ranked 15th in five-on-five shot attempts percentage (46.24), ahead of only the sluggo St. Louis Blues. All told, we yielded a staggering 286 even-strength shot attempts during the five-game set, an average of 54.8 per 60 minutes. While we blocked 80 of those attempts, it’s still far too many.
The only saving grace? Our five-on-five SAT% percentage jumped to 53.02 when we trailed in games, as opposed to 46.26 with the lead and a horrid 39.74 when the score was tied. Which means we turned it on when we needed to.
Incredibly, only one of our players—Phil Kessel—was on the ice for more even-strength shot attempts for than against. Everyone else, from superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to scoring sensation Jake Guentzel, was a minus.
Nick Bonino was minus-27. Rearguard Ron Hainsey, acquired for the express purpose of solidifying our defense, ranked 317th out of the 325 players who’ve appeared in the postseason at minus-32, according to NHL.com.
This isn’t meant as a poke at Ron. He’s on the ice with four other skaters, so it’s a team stat to a degree. Situational, too. But you get my drift. Our shot suppression against Columbus was dreadful.
As good as they were, the Blue Jackets lacked the finishers to take full advantage. Put it this way. If we give Washington the offensive zone time we afforded Columbus, guys like T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams will pick us apart, no matter how well goalie Marc-Andre Fleury plays. To say nothing of what Alex Ovechkin might do if he’s allowed to roam wild, free and unfettered for extended chunks of time.
By contrast, the Capitals five-on-five SAT% was a solid 50.98, impressive considering they played a fast young opponent in Toronto. And, unlike the Pens, their share of shots remained fairly constant through all circumstances. Which points to them playing a sounder 60-minute game.
Okay, enough with the shots. What about other factors, such as special teams?
Each team possesses a downright lethal power play. In fact, the Pens and Caps were tied for third-best in the league during the regular season at 23.1 percent. Against Columbus, the Pens converted five of 15 opportunities—an incendiary 33.3 percent clip. The Caps rank right behind us at 29.4 percent.
Likewise, the clubs are evenly matched shorthanded. During the first round, each registered a highly respectable 83.3 percent kill rate.
For all intents and purposes, special teams are a wash.
Some other stats to chew on. The Caps registered 241 hits against Toronto, far more than the Pens’ 137. An edge to Washington in physical play. However, the Pens performed remarkably well in the faceoff circle against Columbus, winning 52.5 percent of their draws. By contrast, the Caps tasted success on just 46 percent of their faceoffs against the Leafs.
In the giveaway-takeaway department, the Pens hold a huge advantage. Indeed, the locals were a plus-7 in turnovers (35-28) during the opening round, while Washington was a miserable minus-28 (62-90).
With our quick-strike ability, a considerable chink in the Caps’ armor the Pens may be able to exploit.
Now for the intangible, gut-level stuff.
Washington is a better team than the one the Pens vanquished last spring…far better. Coach Barry Trotz has four strong lines at his disposal. Heck, heavyweight Tom Wilson’s scored three goals thus far in the postseason. Trade-deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk added a missing offensive element to the defense. Braden Holtby is a proven goalie.
The Caps sure don’t lack for motivation. With free agency looming for a number of key performers, it’s now or never. They’d love nothing more than to obliterate our Pens and wipe the smile from Crosby’s face, in the process removing the 800-pound gorilla of past playoff failures from their backs.
And our Pens? Fixing the transition game is a must. If we can avoid the defensive breakdowns that caused us to languish in our zone, we certainly possess the firepower to make life miserable for Holtby. Better starts wouldn’t hurt, either.
I sense the Caps’ defense is vulnerable, especially with veteran Karl Alzner on the shelf and Nate Schmidt nursing an injury. In particular, Shattenkirk and Ex-Pen Brooks Orpik (minus-4 each) are shaky. And there’s always a chance Brooksie (and the aforementioned Wilson) will take an undisciplined penalty at an inopportune time.
Although improved, Washington’s bottom-six forwards struggled to keep pace with the Leafs. Look for them to have similar issues against the speedy Pens.
Funny, but writing this preview removed some of the cobwebs from my crystal ball. I see more clearly now.
Penguins in seven.
I am not going to go on record one way or the other. I can see it go either way.
The only thing I am saying at the moment is this; if I were Sully, I would have used these days off to practice breakouts, particularly passing; crisp, sharp, hard passes, the kind of passes that the forwards will not have to wait on, or come back to, passes that become hard to be picked off.
I watched the close-out game at my brother’s place, just below oyur hangout Rick, just below the Pennsbury Pub. One of the things my brother Ed and I reminisced about was how when the Pens had Coffey, Murphy, and Barrasso, they had the ability launch laser beam, tape to tape passes out of the zone, breaking up any attempt to employ a heavy forecheck, forcing opponents to try and skate the puck in rather than dump and chase as well as forcing them to keep their forecheck honest, having to hang back a little for fear of a forward getting sprung.
Despite all the talk about the Pens having good puck handling defensemen, I can’t remember the last tape to tape, hard pass from a D man. But then again, even as good as the Forwards are, they don’t pass anywhere near as hard as Lemieux, Francis, Jagr, Stevens, Mullen, etc.
Hey Coach,
Only the Montreal teams of the 70’s could match an all star cast of the Pen’s team you just mentioned. With the current Cap system and CBA, you will never see that combination of Hall of Fame talent on a single team again in the league either. That is a problem when a team such as the Pen’s celebrate 50 years in the league and has had so much success in the past.The current rosters always get compared to the Good Old Days.
It is really an unfair comparison because times and conditions change.
I greatly respect your knowledge and analytical ability to dissect in immense detail the Pen’s games and their opponents play. So I am going to use your own logic and words that you have so eloquently written to us this past season. Monkey on their Back !! That was a wonderful expression you used several times this year when referring to the Caps ! Well my friend, that Monkey is still there !!! This series means a lot more to the Cap’s than the Pen’s . The pressure is immense on them now to win.When the Cap’s lose again in about 2 weeks this team, ownership, management and Fan base will be devastated and major changes will have to be made.That is the Monkey you have been talking about. It is a real problem for them. Secondly, as I posted earlier and Phil eluded to it, the Cap’s did not look that impressive against a weak, young but fast # 8 seed who never expected to be in the playoffs. Barring major injuries and a MAF melt down, the Cap’s are a lot more scared of us than we of them.
Really believe Pen’s in 6 games Coach and many of the reasons came from you this past season.
Lets Go Pen’s.
* If MAF were to lose 2 games in Washington badly, I believe you would see Murray back for game 3, so I am not really worried about MAF all that much.
Hey Jim,
Always appreciate your perspective and insights, my friend, even when we disagree. Especially since you know the game so well and have grown up with guys who’ve played in the NHL … 🙂
A bit of a pushback on the Pens’ goaltending situation. To my knowledge, Murray hasn’t returned to the ice as of yet. Rumor has it he’s nursing a groin injury–pretty dicey for a goalie. I highly doubt he’d be ready to play in this series.
For better or for worse, it looks like “Flower’s” net, at least for the foreseeable future.
Rick
Hi Rick,
Thanks for the update. 🙂 It is not the news I wanted to hear but such is life. You know there is no bigger critic of MAF this past 3 years than me. If I was running the place he would have been long gone, but thank goodness I am not running the place. I must admit, except for that screw up play in Columbus MAF has played well.Very well. I was wrong about him, as I posted earlier in the Columbus series.
That said, every time he goes for a skate behind his net to play the puck, I get the shakes from worry if he will screw it up .But, I really like our chances….Pens in 6 !! .
Another off the subject remark Rick. During the Toronto series our media interviewed OVI a lot. Almost every game.
He did not look to happy, plus I do not know what he does in his spare time, but from the look on his face and eyes that man has NOT aged well at all.
Look at Crosby in an interview then watch Alexander…
Big difference Rick. Let me know what you think….
In my Country there is an old saying from my fathers day.
The Italians like their food,and the French like their women,and the Americans like their money and the Russians like their Vodka. !!!
I think # 8 fits all of them… ( ha ha )
That catches up to you eventually.
Cheers
Hey Jim,
As I said, I can see how the Pens can win this series. The monkey on the Caps back probably is more like a Gorilla. Dan Rosen was just writing about this today on the NHL website.
However, I see wholes in the Pens this year and I can see a scenario by which they lose.
If Sully was in-effective in teaching the Pens D how to breakout, the Pens will be fighting a tough battle. And MAF has to play better on the road than he did against CBJ. He was virtually a wall at home, but a turnstile on the road. With the Caps having home ice advantage, the series will hinge on his road play. As I noted a couple of days ago, at home his Sv% was 0.967 but on the road it was 0.873. I don’t think 0.873 is going to cut it against the Caps and as Rick pointed out, Murray doesn’t look like he will be back for quite a while.
Coach.
I hear you about the concerns of the break out. Really wish Letang was here. Indeed MAF needs to do better in Washington. But I think he will.
My question to you is can the Caps skate for 3 periods with a fast Pen’s team.? We worry about them but how do they handle Geno , Kessel,Rust line, then Sid.Jake and Conner, Nick, Carl and Patrik… Matt , Chris and Tommy… …That is not easy to do.
And for the Caps d corps they were not exceptional in Toronto series. They did the job but had there weak moments.Nobody challenged the net presence as we do.
So I am not that worried.
Cheers
Hey Other Rick,
It looks like you and I are alone in the too-close-to-call camp.
I don’t buy the “Caps are chokers” talk for one minute. They’re a tough-minded veteran team, with a lot of good hockey players. And guys like Oshie and Williams are clutch scorers who rise to the occasion on a big stage, much like Kessel, Crosby and Malkin.
They have a leg up on us in terms of playoff-style hockey, too, courtesy of a challenging first-round matchup with Toronto. I’m not sure how to describe what the Pens and Blue Jackets played, but it wasn’t traditional postseason shinny.
To reiterate, I do think the Caps are a bit vulnerable on D. And, with seven regulars age 30 or older, I hope prone to wearing down as the series goes on.
However, if the Pens don’t (significantly) clean up their breakouts and overall play in their own end? It could be a long series, indeed.
Rick
Hey Rick,
I wish I weren’t in the Too-Close-Too-Call-Camp, but….
I do think the pressure is thru the roof on Was, but as bad as the pressure is on Ovie and Crew, I am really scared when I look at our D and Fleury’s road performance. Momentum is going to be huge.
I am just crossing my fingers and praying.
I’m with Jim Pens in six.
Fleury is the key to everything. Pens losing first and fifth game away. I think what the Caps may have had over the Pens, which was toughness was completely taken away by the Pens handling of a Columbus.
I think the key is that the Pens have a second gear, they have a “playoff mode”. The Capitals put it all out there like Columbus did in the regular season and only finished a few points in front of the Penguins. On the other hand I watched the Penguins play half caring most of the season, completely riddled with injury and finished just a few points behind the Capitals.
The Penguins showed in the first round that they completely up their game in the playoffs. The Capitals gave it there all and just luckily beat the worst playoff team using 5 overtimes.
Interesting take, Phil. I know that there are players that hold back their best play for the playoffs, but before following the Penguins for the past couple seasons, I didn’t realize that teams did it. With all the injuries they suffered during the regular season, it was impressive that they were able to finish as successfully as they did. Then came Columbus, then went Columbus – disposed of in another gear, entirely.
Count me in with you and Jim – Pens in 6!
Jayelene
Hi Phil,
That is a really good point. Champions find away to rise to the occasion and will always find that second gear you refer to.
It reminds of Phil Kessel and his career. In regular season play or even international play in the non important games he floats. But when the Championship game is on the line Phil is always there. He plays at another level and many others are the same way.
Good point…
Barring serious injury, I see the Pen,s win in 6 games !!!
Game 5 will be the critical game of the series and after losing
on home ice in OT the Cap’s will not recover.
Watch and see if the Cap’s can play enough disciplined hockey
and control their emotions for a 6 game, hotly contested series.
I do not think they can….In Toronto there were a lot of holes in their game.
On paper with our current injuries to key players, I will admit that the Cap’s ARE the better team….
Lucky for us that the game of Hockey is played on a 200 foot sheet of ice and not an 8 x 11 piece of paper.
Rick, bluntly put the Pen’s will not win this series, but the erratic play of the Cap’s will lose it…..
Cheers,
Jim