Is there a chance that the Penguins are trying to grant my wish?
Perusing the internet, with the trade dead line fast approaching, just to see what may be getting ready to shake loose, I ran across an interesting tidbit. It is no secret that Ottawa is struggling both on and off the ice. Following another frustrating loss, this past weekend, a rumor seems to be coming out of Canada involving a player that I have mentioned as someone I would love to see the Penguins try and obtain (Jean-Gabriel Pageau).
Another Penguins blog quoted Elliot Friedman as saying “One of the teams that is currently looking hard at Pageau is Pittsburgh. And I would think that would make a lot of sense he would make a great fit there.”
As soon as I read that, I must admit, I brightened up.
In another recent article on the NHL web site, discussing possible trade dead-line candidates, Pageau’s name did surface but the author of that article, Greg Wyshynski, stated that because Pageau is still young Ottawa may not really shop him around. However, he did concede that if the right offer came along they would pull the trigger.
Hooks Orpik, author of the blog report quoting Friedman did acknowledge that a deal may not be all that easy to reach. I must confess, I did like Hooks’ suggested offer. He suggested that the Penguins may be able to pry Pageau off of Ottawa by including either Conor Sheary or Bryan Rust in a trade or either their 1st or second 2nd pick in this year’s draft. And if the Penguins do lose their 2nd round pick, they may be able to recover that pick by trading Ian Cole as a rental to a team eyeing a play-off berth, needing a defensive Defensman.
The Penguins need a true 3rd line Center, Riley Sheahan has been doing a good job but is better suited to anchoring the 4th line. He really hasn’t shown the offense needed to drive the third line and compliment Phil Kessel. For the Penguins to thrive, they need to have that three-headed monster again; Sidney Crosby, Evgei Malkin, and Phil Kessel split up, threatening opponents from three different direction, forcing opponents to have to choose where to play their best defensive players, freeing up at least one of those talents to bloom every night. No team is deep enough to cover three separate lines without stripping themselves of their own ability to score.
Personally, I would start the trade talks off with Conor Sheary as my main offer. Both players are in the $3 million range in cap (Pageau $3.1 mil, Sheary $3.0), therefore, from a Cap perspective, the numbers will work out. I would then add, if need be, the 2nd pick in this year’s draft (with the idea of trying to get the pick back on an Ian Cole trade). I would hate to add Rust into the discussion though, at least not without more compensation than Pageau. Rust is a CORSI monster and has shown that he can fill just about any hole the Penguins need him to fill; the perfect utility player. Rust’s speed is incredible and he has a knack of getting big goals in the play-offs.
Another reason I do like this trade idea and have been advocating it for a while is that Pageau is young, not yet a free agent/rent-a-player, but he is only signed for two more year (Thanks Lothar). I have been following Jordan Bellerive’s development and would hate to get tied up in a big and protracted contract if Bellerive does develop rapidly. However, if he isn’t quite ready to make the leap, the Penguins could then consider resigning Pageau.
If the Penguins are considering this trade, and can pull it off, I would really like their chances of three-peating. Three-peating is always tough but it would seem to me the probability of one would really get back into a reasonable range, after a trade like that.
Great comments, one and all. I’ll toss a few loose-leaf thoughts on the wood pile.
Overall, I was impressed by Sprong’s instincts, especially around the net. He definitely knows what to do in the attacking zone. What I wasn’t overly impressed with was his skating. There were a couple of times when he really appeared to be laboring to get up any speed, which totally contradicts his profile on “The Hockey News.”
I have absolutely no context for what I witnessed…I may very well have caught him at the tail end of a long shift. But I thought I’d mention it. Also, there were times when he looked lost in the d-zone, although that’s also true of a number of his more experienced teammates.
Switching gears, we all seem to be in agreement that the Pens need a legit third-line center (and I like Sheahan) and some help on defense.
I always liked the Cole-Schultz combo, but Ian seems as good as gone. Maatta and Schultz are okay together–Lord I wish Olli was a better skater because there are so many positives to his game. I like Oleksiak and what he brings to the table…I’m less enthused about his partner, Hunwick. I’d much rather play Cole, but that appears to be water well under (and past) the bridge.
The most worrisome pairing to me is Letang-Dumoulin. Dumo’s had a really rough year trying to cover for No. 58. It’s no secret he played his best games when ‘Tanger’ was on the shelf. But nobody else can handle that role, either, so he’s stuck there by default.
Which means Letang really is the key. If he can get his game together and other things fall into place, we may have a shot at a decent postseason. But that’s a big ‘if’.
Rick
PS—Looks like Sullivan may finally be sitting Reaves against a more skilled team. I mentioned it before, but I think Oleksiak’s presence may eventually make Ryan expendable.
Hey Rick,
I am not going to get into a big dissertation or recapitulation of what I have already said, but we are in many respects on the same page from Cole, Sheahan, 3rd line C, etc).
The last thing I will say about Sprong is that I am not a Sprong fan but a Penguins fan but that is why I am banging the Sprong drum. After all the drum banging I did before Sprong came up, I really watched him play. I am not going to say he is the best RW or even 2nd best RW on the team, nor would I complain if the Penguins could use him in a trade to get a young legitimate power forward. However, what I will say is that I do believe he is pretty much tied with Rust as the 3rd bet RW on the team.
Sprong totally trumps Rust in the goal scoring department offensively but Rust, with his speed and tenacity often helps create “O” that he only gets assists on or no credit at all, other than another + to his +/- and Corsi.
Rust is a better “D” man but not by that much. I have watched Sprong clean up his own zone and get all the way back down to the bottom of the circle to get loose pucks and start break-outs but concede that after the first couple of games, instead of reacting in the D zone it appeared that he was thinking. Maybe all of what I think is ridiculous raps on his D caused him to start doubting himself. Regardless of those few instances, his +/- (+2) and CORSI% (62.98%) are best on the team. If everyone had anything close to his CORSI and +/-, we wouldn’t now be on the outside of the playoffs looking in again. Furthermore, Murray and Jarry would be in the end of the season Hardware discussions from having faced only 20 or so shots a game instead of the 30+ that they now average.
Sheary for Pageau would be a decent move. Pageau can kill penalties. One of the big problems is that it sounds like Ottawa is just trying to ditch payroll and trading for Sheary isn’t going to help them do that.
I’m pretty sure the Pens sent Sprong back down today. I really want to see him work out, but not scoring in 7 of 8 games on Crosby’s line is not a great start. I saw your comparison to Sheary, but Sheary played 4-5 less minutes per game on the 3rd line. That along with I believe Sheary has a one way agreement. I hope he gets his confidence back and comes up with a fresh start.
I think Sullivan likes to get them up here, tell them what they need to work on himself then send them down to work on it.
Hey Phil,
I hope you are wrong about Sprong going back down. That would just be plain wrong but I just saw that Rust took part in full contact practice. If that is true, Sprong and Simon are the only ones who can get sent down.
I haven’t said this yet, but in my mind the only way Sullivan’s playing of Sheary over Sprong makes sense is if the Penguins are looking to/currently shopping Sheary. Moving him back up with Crosby would play right into this. It could help build value into Sheary if he could get some goals again.
Actually if you look at the TOI comparison there really wasn’t a big difference and then look at the G/60min and P/60 minutes, Sprong was doing far more with his time on the ice. Sheary wasn’t doing much at all. And I hate to keep saying negative things about a player but Sheary has gone 8 games without a goal twice this season and was 7 games without a goal going into last game.
Then looking at the big rap on Sprong has always been that he needed to work on his “D” yet his D in terms of +/- and CORSI was not only better than Sheary but pretty much best on the team.
Again, if the team is shopping Sheary that is the only reason I can accept Sheary getting the nod over Sprong. Well that and the fact that and Sprong and Simon are pretty much the only forwards that can be sent down right now without exposing them to the waiver wire.
The other Rick
I’m struggling to see the advantage offensively of trading for Pageau. He currently has a stat line of 6g and 9a compared to Sheahan’s 4g
and 10a……Sheahan is 6’3 222lbs (26yrs old) while Pageau is 5-10 180
(25yrs old). I’m totally on board with moving Sherry but I think the Pen’s
need a more established player to man there 3rd line. Also, I might mention that Pageau is presently on the IR.
Good Question Mike,
My reasoning is this;
1. The Penguins need a Center to free Guentzel up to play Wing.
2. Pageau, like Sheahan is a good face-off man, He has posted W% of 52.2 and 54,8 in the previous 2 seasons, has a 53.1% right now, and has a career W% of 52.2%
3. Offensively over there careers Pageau scores more goals 0.69/60 min vs 0.51 for Sheahan, gets more points, 1.56 vs 1.37 for Sheahan, has a better shooting% 9.9 vs 8.8 for Sheahan, gets more shot attempts on goal 63% vs Sheahan’s 56.6%
4. Defensively Pageau is a +25 for his career vs Sheahan’s -34.
5. Pageau also averages 172 hits, 59 blk, 28tk per 82games, while 33gv/82g vs 54hits, 28blk, 21tk, and 18gv per 82games.
6. Like Sheahan, Pageau can PK, he has scored 10SHG in his career, Sheahan has scored 1.
Since Sheahan is bigger and not as good offensively, he would make a better 4th C and Pageau could fill the 3rd line center.
And let’s remember, if the Penguins could figure a way of pulling this off only giving up Sheary, a left wing, and no other player off of the roster, that is a major win.
The other Rick
Totally agree on Sheahan being better suited for the 4th
line center position. “STATS” don’t really tell the story – there are just way to many variables involved. For one Detroit has flat out sucked the last 2 or 3 years. I don’t believe we need to bring in another guy 5’10 when our farm system is loaded with small players. JR just needs to be patient and someone more established will fall into our laps – I think you will agree that if we traded simply based on stats we would of never landed 2 or 3 players that contributed to us winning (2) cups.
Example: Justin Schultz
Edmonton – before trade – 3g 7a 10pts……. -22
Pgh (2016-17) 12g 39a 51pts…….. +27
Hey Mike,
I would definitely love to get a bigger Center, and I have been keeping an eye on Angello (6’5″ I believe) and Pavlychev (6′-7″) – in college. Neither appear to be able to grow into a top Center, but then again, right now, we don’t really need a top 2. However, they could become valuable bottom 2.
With Pageau only signed for 2 – yrs we wouldn’t be committed long term.
Also, Detroit only began to fall apart last year. Sheahan was on a perennial playoff team until then; a team that collected 93 points 2 -yrs ago, 100 points 3-yrs ago, and 93 points 4yrs ago. Overall, Ottawa and Detroit have put up similar W/L records over the years with Detroit falling apart last year and Ottawa this year, so comparing their data isn’t all that wrong.
However, you are right, stats can only be a fraction of a story. Warren Young’s numbers were definitely inflated playing with Mario and Crosby certainly got Sheary money he really doesn’t deserve – but in those cases the numbers people only looked at Goals, Assists, Points and maybe +/- and I am looking at far more stats. Lastly, unfortunately, they are the only objective data we can look at.
In the end, any trade at the dead line, off season, or whenever, is a crap shoot. For a Pageau case, I would roll the dice. He isn’t optimal, but with the rumor mill circulating the idea that there is more than a little collusion going on in the NHL trying to keep teams to trade with the Penguins, to try and get an edge over us, so even if a bigger C of equal or near equal skill would become available to others, we may not get the chance at him. We my have to try and work with what we can get.
Hey Phil
Changing tracks to your comment on Pageau, there certainly something to what you say. Pageau and Sheary are roughly the same age, size and Salary so Ottawa would hardly be looking to make a lateral move. Although the Penguins could possibly sweeten the pot with a prospect in their system or in college, as Lothar suggested, but a draft pick may be what is required to make the deal.
Pageau’s $3 mil wouldn’t really save them much money in the long run, so Sheary’s $3mil may not be a deal breaker. If Ottawa is going to save salary, they more than likely will need to move Hoffman, Karlsson, Phaneuf, and/or Ryan (Well Duchene too, but they just traded for him).
Hey Phil,
Interesting article from Jim O’Brien of NBC sports taking about the Penguins demoting Sprong did you read it?
O’Brien suggests that the demotion was punitive on Sullivan’s part. However, O’Brien focuses his attention on Reaves rather than Sheary when it comes to Sprong.
Just like you, O’Brien talks about Sprong not scoring in 7 games. What really bothers me is the fact that Sheary as I have mentioned has twice failed to score over 8 games and just escaped doing it a third time. Sheary also was a complete 0 last year in the play-off. Even that “redemption” goal he scored against the Preds was more of a result of Kunitz’s unbelievable no look pass.
The end of the article is even more interesting. It could be construed as O’Brien calling Sullivan out for a terrible move, “We’ll see how the Sprong-less Penguins fare against the Carolina Hurricanes in a pretty important game on Tuesday.”
I agree with O’Brien. I hope that somehow or another it works out for Sullivan so the Penguins can at least get into the play-offs. There really isn’t too much room for the Penguins to absorb more losses because Sullivan refuses to sit Sheary.
In the first 8 games of the season when Sheary was planted on Crosby’s line, Crosby was -5 and Sheary was -4 while during the 8 games Sprong played RW for Crosby he was -1 while Sprong was +2.
Furthermore, when Sheary was playing with Crosby, Crosby’s CORSI numbers were 126 CF, 126 CA for a difference of 0 or 50% and Sheary’s CORSI was 95 CF 109CA for a -14 or 46.6% With Sprong as his Winger Crosby’s CORSI was 148CF and 83 CA for a +65 or 64%, while Sprong’s CORSI was 114 CF with 67 CA for a +47 or 62.9%.
No matter how you slice it Sprong deserves to be playing not Sheary. Sprong is better than Sheary and he elevates Crosby’s game.
Sheary’s defensive numbers didn’t start coming up until he was demoted to 3rd line playing against opponents 3rd line players.
If Sullivan isn’t playing Sheary and dragging Crosby back down again in order to build value in Sheary for a trade, than I am sorry JR and Mario need to have a sit down with Sullivan and show him the numbers, show him that he has absolutely no objective evidence to support his coddling of Sheary and punishing Sprong.
First mistake is you cant go by the numbers – coaches are with the players everyday – practice, film, meals….etc…… – maybe Sprong isn’t good for team chemistry – You just never know what’s taking place behind closed doors. Sullivan is the coach and looking for his players
to perform a certain way in his system – I think his track record is pretty consistent when it comes to young players – you work hard and responsible he’ll keep you on the roster – case in point / Rust, Sheary, Guentzel, Wilson, Kuhnackle…..obviously in his eyes Sprong is not ready and it appears to me he’s sending him a message. My guess is he’ll bring him back in the very near future.
As I noted above, I do agree that Stats aren’t the be all to end all. Well one stat is, Ws and Ls and the Penguins have once again fallen out of the final wild card spot. They Climbed back in when Sprong was on the team and have fallen back when Sullivan sat Sprong. That may be coincidental but then again maybe not. The other stats, the ones I quoted would back up the evidence of it not being coincidental.
I agree, you are right about what Sullivan did in the past when he first came to the Big Club he wasted little time bringing in Rust, Sheary, Wilson, Kuhnhackl, and Sudqvist. He also had no problem sitting Malkin to make a point. However some things to consider;
When he first came to the big club, he could not possibly be emotionally/sentimentally vested in the players around him, so he could make cold, hard, clinical decision about them. However, the afore mentioned kids were kids he had already coached for half a year and may have begun to have a bit of sentimentality. Now 2 years later for the big club and 2.5 years coaching Sheary, Rust, Kuhnhackl, it is very possible that Sullivan is falling into the MJ mold of seeing certain players through sentimental glasses.
Above you argue against Pageau in a trade but here you defend Sheary over Sprong. Sheary is too small and isn’t getting the job done. You could argue that maybe now that Rust is back he moves in and Sheary out, but Sprong is light years better than Sheary and Sprong brought energy and Ws back to the team. There is very little time left to climb back into the play-off picture so there is no time for keeping Sheary (again unless he is being shopped). If he isn’t being shopped then waive him and keep Sprong up here.
I would certainly like to try and trade Sheary for a player like Pageau but I can’t help but think that the rest of the league places a whole lot less value on him than at least the Penguins coaching staff and he would actually clear waivers. However, if the roles were reversed, I doubt Sprong would last 10s on the waiver wire.
The other Rick
I’m not at all defending Sheary and would welcome a trade – I am defending Sullivan who I think deserves at least that for the job he’s done with the Penguins.
Just a quick point – Its really a joke when people try to determine the Pen’s success based on how Crosby and Malkins linemates are playing – Look you could put a couple of statues next to those two and they would make them look good. Bottom line and JR said it best when the players we have who are capable of scoring begin to score the team will flourish. Crosby, Malkin and Kessel have been putting up great numbers and the W’S are coming.
Also, the crazy talk that the Penguins could miss the playoffs is also a “JOKE” – They havent hit there stride but there showing flashes of getting it going at the right time.
Hey Mike,
I apologize if I sound like I may be suggesting that Sullivan needs fired, I am not. I think that Sullivan is great coach. However, he still is human and therefore capable of not only mistakes but liking and disliking people not based off performance but personal bias. We are all in that boat.
All I am suggesting is that just like sitting Malkin in his first couple days of Coaching, Sullivan may need a gentle reminder from his superiors.
I have acknowledge some reasons as valid for sending Sprong back down and even some very tenuous reasons for sitting him over the last couple of games, however, any suggestion that Sheary deserved more ice time/a roster spot, compared to Sprong, is not one of them. And if Sullivan does try and suggest this, than he has no evidence.
Now consider this, when Spring was playing the team was 5 – 3 and occupying the 3rd Wild Card spot and climbing. Since Sprong was bench, the team is 1 – 2 and are once again trending the wrong way. For one of the rare times this season Kessel was held off of the score sheet and Malkin and Crosby also are showing signs of slowing. All of that may be coincidental but with the clock ticking there is little to no room for error.
I agree with everything that everyone has stated in this comment section and it has been obvious since going two years ago despite stats that Sheary should not be Crosby’s line at all. They don’t mesh well tell together and I think he was part of Crosby’s slump and often frustrated of not sustaining offense with him. Big Red flags were given to Rutherford on not signing Sheary and use money for two -way effective 3rd line Center. He isn’t a top line caliber winger that can produce, be consistent, not effective when not scoring and need a star to make him better. He’s one of them player he was good in AHl but not in Nhl. He’s a streaky lost Inconsistent small weak one dimensional player.
I never see the potential in him and he makes not wanna go to games when I know he is on Crosby ‘s line because I know he will lose the puck, get knocked down, turnovers, won’t win pucks battles, be bad defensively and hurt Crosby overall elite game. I feel like I only see center and one winger on that line playing.
Although they drop Sprong back to Ahl about two weeks ago I’m curious in why Guentzel wasn’t put back with Crosby and Simon instead Guentzel because they actually played great together plus seem like a great line with Simon on the right wing of Crosby. I hate Sheary on the first line but like it was Commented he should be on there if he’s being traded/ shopped around for 3C in which I think he will benefit in the Pageau deal even tho I would like Bozak as well. I know Rutherford really wanted him. I believe Guentzel is great long term fit for Crosby due to fact they play the same game and have great chemistry among other things. Do you think Simon and Jake should be with Crosby? If Sprong do come back I would put him on the 3 or 4th line gradually let him work him way back up. I’m afraid he will never be ready or Sullivan doesn’t like him because he’ isn’t one of guys like Sheary and Matt Murray. I would rather Jake and Simon for the Lon term on Crosby ‘s line because they don’t just stand around lost waiting for Crosby they work hard every shift, get involved, make plays, defensively good, support Crosby well, great on the boards/down low cycle great for Crosby and they make /play their game with Crosby’s game where everyone benefits ultimately bring the best out of each other.
Phil
Agree – there’s definitely a method to Sully’s madness.
I agree with you.i was just saying it is a good contract.It give time for some young player devolpment. I also agree with the cost Sheary plus a second is great, maybe iclude one of the college prospects. I would not give up Rust without more coming back he is too good in the playoffs.
Hey Lothar,
Agreed it is a good contract.
I hadn’t thought about the college bound kids, but that may be an idea too. Anthony Angello is having a decent season right now. I was thinking he could be a good fit on the 3rd or 4th line next year, but to get Pageau this year it would be worth it. He does have good size too, so Ottawa may bite on him.
Pavlychev is even bigger but he isn’t really putting up any numbers so Ottawa may not want him.
Bjorkvist started this season off slowly put at least his stats are picking up right now, so he could be another asset the Penguins could add to sweeten the pot. He was 2nd round pick a couple of years back. Maybe giving them an older 2nd round pick may get the trick done rather than giving up a future one.
I know the Penguins were at one time high on Lafferty but he hasn’t had a good season thus far either this year, so I am not sure if Ottawa would bite on that one.
Pageau is signed for 2 more years
Thanks Lothar,
So sorry. But even 2 years is no long commitment and allows for younger player development and addition.