I’ve been chewing over this one for the past week or so. And while it may seem odd to broach the subject on the heels of stirring back-to-back triumphs over Colorado and the Islanders, there’s no time like the present. So I’ll pose the question and try to answer it at the same time.
Are the Penguins playoff bound?
Man, that’s a tough one. To say we’re a gifted but flawed team is the understatement of the century. In my mind, we’re kind of like Olde Frothingslosh, a specialty (perhaps novelty’s a better word) quaff brewed by Pittsburgh Brewing Company and described as “the pale, stale ale with the foam on the bottom.”
Well, just like Olde Frothingslosh, it’s the bottom of the locals’ lineup that concerns me.
In many ways, the Pens have mimicked the Tampa Bay Lightning from the early 2000s. After winning the Stanley Cup in 2004, the Lightning invested heavily in core stars Dan Boyle, Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis and franchise icon Vincent Lecavalier…at the expense of the rest of their lineup.
Following two seasons of early playoff exits, the Bolts fell on hard times and missed the postseason in 2007-08, ushering in a dry spell that included a string of five non-playoff years over a six-season span.
A look at the ’07-08 squad is revealing. Over half of the team’s 221 non-shootout goals were scored by Lecavalier, Richards, St. Louis and Vinny Prospal. Four guys. That’s because the rest of the team had fallen into disrepair.
Although incidental to the story, know who was an assistant coach on that team? Yup, Mike Sullivan.
Our present-day Pens are following an eerily similar path. Sixty-one of the team’s 95 goals have been scored by the ultra-elite group of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin. Throw in Kris Letang’s seven goals? Nearly 72 percent of our goals have come from our core guys.
Wow. Talk about separating the wheat from the chaff!
To gain some perspective, the same group of players (minus Guentzel) tallied 53 percent of our non-shootout goals in 2015-16. The following season? Fifty-one percent with Guentzel in the mix. Last season…61 percent.
That’s a helluva swing…excuse my French.
It points to an unhealthy deterioration of bottom-six production. Inevitable in a way, given the exodus of productive second-tier players like Nick Bonino, Chris Kunitz and Conor Sheary and the dearth of NHL-ready talent at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. A condition exacerbated to an extent by the understandable tendency to shed draft picks as part of a win-now philosophy.
You might say we’re a victim of our own success.
It isn’t that GM Jim Rutherford isn’t working hard to revive the mix. Some of his moves have worked out well—the recent Tanner Pearson for Carl Hagelin swap the most noteworthy. Not to knock ‘Hags’, but he couldn’t hit the green side of a red barn with his shot. Pearson looks like a real good player and he’s four years younger to boot.
Dominik Simon (13 points, 56.5 Corsi) has had his moments, too. But they’re technically top six-guys, not depth players.
So how about the supporting cast of forwards?
Although he’s showing signs of coming around, Derick Brassard’s been so-so at best. Certainly not the difference maker he was touted to be. I love Bryan Rust, but he’s got to do better than one goal in 27 games. The Pens need more out of Riley Sheahan, too. Ditto Zach Aston-Reese, who’s shown precious little physicality or scrap since being blown up by Washington’s Tom Wilson in the playoffs last spring.
Derek Grant? Good on draws, but too slow for my taste. Garrett Wilson? Love his attitude, along with his willingness to finish his checks and jam the net. But a fringe player at best.
Defense is another trouble spot, especially in the wake of Justin Schultz’s prolonged absence. Again, Rutherford made what looks like an astute move to upgrade the blue-line corps by acquiring 22-year-old Marcus Pettersson from Anaheim for black-and-gold washout Daniel Sprong. While the latter undeniably has pedigree and it’s admittedly early, I like the look of Pettersson. He’s active and mobile and possesses a long, educated stick. Covers a lot of ice, too.
At first blush, his presence seems to have solidified a defensive corps that had a ‘down-a-man’ feel to it. But again, it’s early.
Of course, goaltending is a whole other issue. Plain and simple, you don’t get very far without a go-to goalie. Backup Casey DeSmith’s done a more-than-admirable job of plugging the gap while Matt Murray convalesces from his latest injury. In a worst-case scenario, if Murray flames out, are Casey and sidekick Tristan Jarry enough to get us into the playoffs?
Probably.
Any further? Probably not.
I think that’s a fair assessment of our team’s chances as well. Will we make the playoffs? In the performance challenged Metropolitan Division…probably.
Will we go on an extended Cup run? Probably not. At least not as presently constructed.
Rick
Hope your well. I have the Topic for your next article.
“Are the Pen’s really that skilled”?
We can’t win a shootout – 1 on 1 with the goaltender and we
can’t win a 3 on 3 overtime game. Where’s this incredible
skill level everyone wants to talk about.
3 on 3 and shootouts require high level skill players.
I would like to hear everyone’s thoughts.
Hey Mike,
I honestly think the Pens do have skilled players but I don’t think they are schooled well enough to handle when other teams counter Sullivan’s plan A. I also think it is more of a question of; are they deployed in the right combinations to put the team in the best position to win? and to that question I would say a resounding NO!
If drilled better w/ a plan A ,and B, and maybe even a plan C, as well as better line combinations, I doubt the team would have been in half of their 3 on 3 or SO situations. Furthermore, if deployed better I think that Malkin and Crosby would have been better in the SOs that they have been in, but every SO they always seem to exhausted to try to make any real moves.
Hello Rick ,
Very Good Stuff.
I do have some disagreements.
Simon? Please . Crosby deserves better than him and make him a look like he a complete player on the top line. He isn’t a top 6 foward . Jake And Sid elevates his game and his stats to look like a top 6 foward. They don’t need another playmaker on their line. Especially a fringe bottom 6 forward. Simon is a bottom/ middle player who should be playing on the bottom lines or another team. He reminds of Sheary’s situation with Sullivan. I don’t get why Sullivan wants him there. He bad defensively, not that fast, turn the puck over to much, doesn’t keep up to much with Sid&Jake. Bad penalties. Passes to much. He can’t gandle it going a against top lines and defender. Eye test tell otherwise. He didn’t way to be with Sid&Jake. Rust too.
He’s sloppy and wear top line down. He’s isnt a shooter nor finisher. On and on.
Pearson? He doing some good. Maybe it’s more to come. But he looks slow at times. Weak on puck. He might really be third line LW . I don’t think Malkin can sustain that much with him. Unless Kessel there. I don’t see to much consistency nor chemistry there. Malkin is off his game. Carrying to much weight on his shoulders to get stuff going. Pearson doesn’t make space enough for him and misses passes to much. His body language speak it with coaching staff. (Malkin)
Sheary? The other Rick. specifically gave the right assessment. Sheary is a fringe third liner st best. Nothing more nothing less. He lose the puck to much , Very streaky, weak on skates and puck. Bad defensively.
Rust? Bottom 6 foward. With a very undeserving long leash. Overpaid for past performance. Sheary and other got that too. Rust has not been good for two seasons. Maybe it’s the constant line shuffling him everywhere. Players needs consistency and to know their center tendencies. To know they will be with the same center for some good amount of games. Agreement with TOr on his assessment too.
Brassard? Brassard doesn’t fit here. He doesn’t want to be here. Interviews and body language tells it. He’s weak on puck and boards. He isn’t noticeable
Pens needs trade Brassard. He doesn’t drive enough offensively and play Penguins hockey. I don’t see him On the PK. Passenger? Swap for another young great center or something. Coyle? Lowry? Hayes? Someone else. I can’t think unless I see the trade bait rumors.
Johnson? Bad Signing. Long list of issues with him. He’s getting to much ice time and more offensive time while Määttä and Oleksiak. Despite they both have great plus rating and and better helping to chip in offensively with better shooting the net. Sullivan is try his best to accommodate him. While punishing his other better defenseman. Määttä and Oleksiak is better than him. Pens needs to find a way to remove him off their roster.
I agree with you. Pens will make the Playoffs. I expect them to make it far this year. With Rutherford moving some passengers and acquiring some needs to this team. Use better fresh blood. Mike Sullivan get it together with players usage , accountable and develop players at hockey leve.. etc.. I hope so. I have But’s and if’s to doubt them. Because I don’t think they need Letang to hurt them and to many LHD’s to hurt them.
Penguins trading Letang for something decent to help them in return. One very good player to play now /Picks/Prospects can help now and in the future.
I still believe trading Rust, Brassard and Letang would benefit them.
I would considering trading Murray.
Rutherford may can get another reasonable RHD, new 3C , RW for Sid , Veteran back up goalie could to take them to next level.
I can’t count against Malkin, Hornqvist, Crosby , Guentzel, Dumoulin , Kessel and Shultz.
There’s a way for them to go deep and win a stanley cup this year. December-February is crucial .
Rutherford,Mike Sullivan&Coaching Staff , Some Players gotta do better to make more progress.
I would like to see:
•Continuously Cohesive mature game for them.
•Urgency/Consistency/Compete level
•fresh young speedy supporting cast
•protection in their zone/5man unit/better neutral zone movement/more solid defensive schemes
•3-8 win in a row
•better structure line combos unless barring injuries
•fair accountability/scratches
•Winning puck battle/forecheck/ better face off wins
•controlling puck better/better decision making
•more solid goaltending
•Defensive first/better coverage
•low shots for teams
•better from coaching staff or in house firing
•create better identity
•better preparation against teams
•Stay healthy/ Sully do a better job to keep Sid&Geno fresh
•Support one another/cycle down low/ dirty battling areas and blue paint goals
• retool powerplay
On and on
Overall, I see that on a nightly basis from them, I will have no doubts about them going deep and deep for a stanley cup. I know Crosby and Malkin want to win another one and very anxious to do so.
Hey Dee and Other Rick,
Since you guys have much the same comments and concerns, I’ll offer a collective response and a mild push back to some of your comments.
When I mentioned Dominik Simon being in the top-six, I didn’t necessarily mean he belongs there. Rather, it’s where the Pens are slotting him. I agree that he probably belongs on the third line although…a lot like Sheary…I’m not sure he has the requisite grit to fill a bottom-six role. So he’s kind of an odd fit.
It’s part of the issue with our present Pens…we have players with skill sets that don’t quite fit what we need in those particular slots.
In terms of Sheary, you and Other Rick have both expressed your dislike on numerous occasions and obviously there were holes in his game. But he also brought a lot of speed and energy and scored 41 goals over the past couple of seasons. The Pens haven’t replaced his production and that’s part of the problem.
I’m not sure I agree with you about Pearson. I think he plays well in traffic and I like his shot. Whether he’s a perfect fit for Malkin remains to be seen.
This is more for Other Rick. I’m fully aware that Kunitz is pretty much at the end of the line. I was referring more to the production he gave us during the Cup years…17 goals in ’15-16 and 9 goals in ’16-17 (mostly from the bottom six) than the actual present-day player. We could use that type of guy in our bottom six…a young version of Kunitz…or at least the older Kunitz who could still bang and chip bodies and score about 10 goals.
Dee, I agree about Brassard. This guy has shown me little or nothing. He’ll occasionally make a nice pass and he hints at being defensively responsible, but that’s about it. He makes very little happen and does little to drive possession (46.9 Corsi). Perhaps Rutherford’s worst move since he’s been here. I, too, dump this guy at the earliest opportunity.
Regarding Johnson, I think he generally makes nice passes and I like the fact that he’ll block shots and at least put his body on people. But I think he has recognition issues in the d-zone…like he has to think about what he’s doing for a second before he reacts. And in the NHL, you simply don’t have that luxury.
Wish I shared your enthusiasm that this team can go far. Maybe we can get lucky with some call-ups from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton…Other Rick has mentioned Anthony Angello and Adam Johnson. But unless JR pulls a couple of miracle deals out of his hat, I don’t think this team is anywhere near Cup-worthy.
A shame, too, because Crosby’s playing some extraordinary two-way hockey.
Rick
Hello RiCk,
Absolutely.
Players are being slotted wrong and particularly do no fit this team . Pens need more speedy wingers. I want Johnson and Angello up here. Dea is no no. There’s no reason for him at all. I like him. I don’t think they need him. Rutherford seem to talk WB/S Players up that they will get a chance to thrive up here. I don’t see it.
Rutherford didn’t replace players to well to fit holes. He tried too.
Agree. Johnson block shots a lot and take body to much because he doesn’t defend very well,turn puck over, bad clear attempts, leave puck in no man’s land, very slow, lack contextual awareness and get outmuscled at times. Doesn’t drive offensively. He has no purpose on this team. Last night Sullivan had him to much with Crosby’s line and simply caved them in ..he keep the team to much hemmed in..put him more with top lines than he needs to be. He bring little physical presence and ok good Pk. But it isn’t good enough.
Sheary has one good season almost 3 seasons ago because Crosby was on fire and doing the to much dirty work. Sully ‘s boy. Sheary isn’t it. Rutherford do need to find a way to replace it due to fact Rust will not do enough to make that up.
Penguins don’t have identity due to the fact Sullivan has not done a great job of putting players in positions to succeed recently. Better systemic changes. Two seasons.
I think he harps too much on the negatives instead of embracing the positives. He needs to realize the kind of roster he has been given. Stop the line shuffling unless barring injuries and let players build on the ice to be the best. Time is ticking. Sid&Geno have to many years left to be wasted.
He doesn’t develop players right at National Hockey League. Very picky and ridiculous. Very egotistical and to much favoritism that hurt this team on the ice. He needs to put personal feelings and bias aside and work with players regardless how he feels. He has to much problems with players that’s willing to help this team in a nightly basis.
He doesn’t objectively look at players to play them where they belong within their limitations. Stop sacrificing top players to be all games with just one to two lines every game. Stop pick guys that don’t to much to help you. Penguins need deep rolling four lines against teams.
He’s too comfortable and not on the same page with Rutherford. He needs to realize every player that he encounters he will not like something about their game and Rutherford brought them here for a reason to help the team. Rutherford needs to sit him down and let him know that. There’s to many players that Rutherford wants or the team needs that get push out of town.
I truly believe Angello and Johnson can help them on the bottom lines. Get One two way speedy,physical like Kunitz . Wilson and Zar can’t sustain what Penguins need to win games. ZAr does PK well.
We can judge more further until Rutherford do something else to at least help them . Defense , Mature cohesive game and Rolling four lines will take care itself. With Solid Goaltending. Right now coaching staff gotta do better and get more wins before their Christmas break..
Hey Dee,
Interesting thoughts on Sullivan. I agree that he seems to try to force guys into his system rather than tweaking or adjusting his system to fit the talent at hand.
I think our disastrous 1-7-2 stretch…which may still potentially cost us a playoff berth…was due at least in part to the fact that Sully failed to recognize…or at least react to…the need to make a defensive adjustment and keep the off-side winger from flying the zone.
As soon as he made the adjustment (probably with a lot of coaxing from Jacques Martin) things settled down. But, man, was he slow to do it.
Also tend to agree with your very intriguing assertion that Sullivan doesn’t develop players well at this level. During our first Cup year, it looked like we’d unearthed a batch of kids…Kuhnhackl, Rust, Sheary and Scott Wilson who could serve as energy guys and bottom-six anchors for years to come. Although Rust and Sheary have had their moments, they all eventually regressed under Sullivan.
And now Sprong. I’ll be really curious to see how he pans out with Anaheim.
I’m not a fan of the incessant line juggling, either. I personally think it does more harm than good. Although I do need to point out that Scotty Bowman liked to juggle lines, too. And he won…what…eight Cups?
Rick
Hey Rick + Dee,
I look at things in terms of levels of probability. I do think that the probability of the Penguins making the play-offs is pretty good, regardless of what the team does short of trading Crosby or Malkin. If they fall back out of play-off contention again, then Sullivan really does need to get on with his life’s work. However, the probability that the Pens make a serious run at the Cup is relatively small, no matter what they do. There are too many problems to fix this year. As I said before they lack the assets to make all of the needed upgrades. As you have said several times Dee, there are far too many passengers.
With Malkin and Crosby, there will always be a greater than most teams chance of the team pulling an upset, but that chance is still going to be small.
I do think that now that Sprong is gone there will be a bit of spike in team play, with Sullivan not pouting in the locker room over having to have a top tier winger that his ego can’t play nice with for the good of the team. It seems that there was a pall over this team the whole year because of that pathetic rift. Hopefully Sullivan has grown up and he doesn’t find a Sprong, Cole, or Reaves 2.0 or 3.0 or 4.0 (how many players has he chased away now?) to fill his dog house.
With Kunitz, until he left the team, he still was used quite often as a top 6 LW (no doubt due to the dearth of port side talent this team has suffered thru of late). So, I don’t really consider him depth scoring until now that he is on other teams.
I still say that the best thing this team can do is give it up and trade off top heavy talent that appears to be doing well right now, to get the most they can for them. Free up Cap space with their departure. Drop into the top 5 rounds of the draft to get a good young player. Then sign 2 or 3 top UFAs and they can be set for B2B runs again.
In my mind it will be better to lose this better to win another couple of wars – and win them in the near future.
and as Mary Lou Retton used to say on her commercial – oh and one more thing;
Duchene and Ryan are both out. If the Pens lose tonight, Sullivan needs fired tomorrow morning.
Rick
I completely agree with you. First thing I will say is the Pen’s are a
lock to make the playoffs – 2nd there a lock to be eliminated early.
Can you say zero toughness – what are people watching – does anyone
listen to the Pens on the radio – Phil Bourque constantly talks about
opposing teams never having to answer for a cheap shot to one of our
skilled players and we don’t have one defenseman that will knock someone on there ass in front of the net. (excuse my English)!!
Next and I mentioned this in an earlier reply – the Pen’s supposedly are
loaded with skilled players yet we can’t win a shootout or overtime game.
Something doesn’t add up.
I’m in agreement with Dee – Make a major trade – Letang, Brassard and
Rust. For me I would look to move Matta – he’s lost a step.
Everyone wants to take shots at Johnson but its not his fault that JR
over-paid to get him. Also, he leads the team in blocks and hits which with the Pens has a huge value.
Hey Mike,
I agree the Pens need more toughness, that is why I write elsewhere that even though Sheary may be scoring goals and picking up points, now, during the regular season, he is a limited player and really had worn out his utility for the Penguins.
Losing Pedan to the KHL really hurt the team’s potential toughness. I still can’t help but wonder what his motivation for running back to Europe was. Did they really offer him more than the Pens were willing to offer, or was it a question of Pedan watching Sullie give Letang more TOI with each and every screw up last playoff year with the realization that he (Pedan) would get almost no chance of playing.
If The Pens Defense had Oleksiak on 1 pairing, Pedan on another, and had they found a way to get Mozik like I would have loved to see on the 3rd pairing, the Defense would be knocking all of the offending forwards trying to set up camp in front of the net. Furthermore, had Sullivan not forced Rutherford into a bad trade Cole and Reaves for Brarrard, the forwards would also be forcing the play more.
Like you I would love to see the Pens unload Letang’s Brassard’s, Rust’s, and Maatta’s contracts. I can say good things about all 4 players. In other circumstances, I would love to see at least Rust and Maatta remain Penguins. But all are over paid. And that money could be better spent elsewhere.
I can see your point about Johnson, even about JR over-paying him, but bottom line is, he is over-paid too. The biggest difference between him and the fore mentioned four is that I doubt JR would finding a taker for him.
Hey Rick,
Good stuff! There is an uncomfortable likeness to TBL. I didn’t realize Sullivan was there though.
You know I agree with you, this team my still make the play-offs, but I seriously doubt that they can make a run at the Cup. I further doubt that the have the assets to trade to get the right puzzle pieces to change that much.
The good news, in my mind, is that once the play-offs start, anything can happen, particularly when you have Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel on your team. Even if they traded off say a Letang for prospects Draft Picks and a Prospect, the team would neither hurt nor improve their chance to make a Cup run this year, but they could position themselves to not only be in a strong position this year, but in a very dominant position for another shot at B2B runs, while they still have the big guns Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel.
I do have a couple of slight disagreements;
As much as I like Kunitz, he really doesn’t have it anymore. Even if he were still on the roster, he would also be an under performing bottom 6. Time has caught up with him. Yes, I still would have loved to see him stick around and retire a Penguin, but he would be adding nothing but sentiment to this team.
As for Sheary, he may be a useful regular season player, although a bit streaky, but he is a complete Zero once the play-offs come and the referees put there whistles in their pockets. He tries but he is so small and so weak on the puck that I have gotten tired of seeing him get knock off of the puck by the wake of a player skating past him. David and Goliath story’s only happen once every 3 or so thousand years, that is why they are s special when they do happen.
Although I do think the Pens traded up or at least both teams will win in the Hagelin – Pearson trade, but Pearson has certainly cooled off since getting here. Furthermore, the dynamic duo of Malkin and Kessel tailed off when Pearson came on their line. More production game from the port side but at the expense of the C and RW. It would be interesting to see if Panarin goes UFA and the Penguins dump enough wasted salary to make a play for him, what the team could look like with him or maybe Duchene to give them 6 real NHL top 6 players.
Finally, Simon? he isn’t a top 6. Maybe a middle 6 at best, but not a top 6 – more like a serviceable 3rd liner. Furthermore he as I have written before, he is just one more play maker who doesn’t really know how to bury the puck, but prefers to make that one last pass. Although putting Kessel, a goal scorer, with Crosby, really picked up Crosby;s game – just like putting Sprong on it last year in January did (To bad Sullivan couldn’t put his ego aside for the good of the team) it stripped Malkin’s game. I know some Sprong haters say he (Sprong) did nothing to earn a spot with Crosby, but as I said several times before, neither did Simon, or Rust and both have played with the Captain, anchoring him down.
I did like the way Aston Reese and Wilson played last night but I am a Doubting Thomas with them. I can’t help but wonder what Angello and Johnson would do if given the chance. However, even there this year is appears to be a long odds year no matter what the team tries.
The Other Rick
Not to dispute your Pearson claim but Malkin cooled off well before
that trade was made and has continued to struggle.
Pearson will be an asset on lines 1 thru 3 – he goes to the tough area’s
and possesses a good hockey IQ – I’m sure it will be after the New Year
before he’s totally comfortable with Sullivan’s system.
Also, I’m not a Simon guy – good playmaker with average speed, undersized
and can’t finish – The Pen’s lost two speedy players in Hagelin and Sheary
and I thinks its definitely hurt our overall team speed. Right now Sheary is
sitting with 6 goals and 6 assist.
Hey Mike,
I do think Pearson is an upgrade from what we were getting from Hagelin , offensively, and I do like his nose for the net, but Malkin had 7 Gs, 14 As, 35 shots, and was a -1 in the 16 games before Pearson came. In the 12 games since he has 3 Gs, 9 As, 27 shots, and is a -6. Malkin may have had a bad game or 2 before Pearson came, but that could have simply been random chance. The body of work before and and after shows a decline. Pearson may be a top 6, but he may not be a a good fit with Malkin. Or it could be that Malkin and Pearson need Kessel to really maximize their potential, but Hornqvist, although a great player in his own right, throws the line off. Certainly Sheahan is an anchor on that line dragging it down. Sullivan would be infinitely better off playing Dea or Aston-Reese on that line than Sheahan. Even Angello could be an upgrade over Sheahan.
Sheahan may grow back into a servicible bottom 6 Center, but he is not a RW. Sullivan can try all he wants to, to pound a square peg into a round hole, and maybe it won’t be horrible, but it certainly won’t ever be optimal.
I did like Hagelin and wouldn’t have minded seeing him stay in a bottom 6 capacity, but the Pens did/may still need a top 6 LW to compliment Malkin, or perhaps a better compliment on RW for Malkin – Pearson.
Sheary, sorry, I am not a fan of him as a Penguin. I like his story and would love to see another David Goliath story happen, but when whistles go into the pockets at play-off time and hockey returns to a man’s sport, Sheary disappears. He can have all the speed he wants but it does no good at that time. A gnat can irritate a foe for only so long, until the foe swats it, and then the gnat is no more. The Penguins needed to get more size and grit than Sheary could provide.