It’s been said that some of the most beautiful flowers in all the world grow in the harshest environments. Indeed, vast fields of wildflowers can be seen bursting forth in colorful splendor in such inhospitable places as the Mojave Desert.
Okay, so maybe the Penguins’ 2017-18 season isn’t exactly akin to such an arid and desolate locale. However, with the team struggling to string together wins and perched a mere handful of points out of the Metropolitan Division cellar, it hasn’t been a rousing success, either.
Yet even on the desert floor, wildflowers bloom. Or, in this case, rookies Tristan Jarry, Dominik Simon and Daniel Sprong.
The kids were at the forefront of the Pens’ 4-0 pasting of the New York Islanders at Barclays Center last night, a triumph that enabled our guys to slip past the staggering Isles and into sixth place.
Since it’s an oft-stated hockey-ism that success begins in goal, I’ll start with Jarry. Tristan made 31 saves last night to register his second shutout in only 14 appearances, a pace that would place him among the league leaders with a full-time starter’s workload. Without much fanfare, he’s posted a sparkling 2.17 goals against average and an equally impressive .928 save percentage.
Like another black-and-gold goalie who donned No. 35, Jarry doesn’t lack for confidence. And talk about unflappable. The 22-year-old wonder seems totally unawed by his big-league surroundings. He shrugs off slap shots and prime scoring chances with an equanimity that makes even his famously poised partner, Matt Murray, appear jittery by comparison.
Many of us were petrified at the prospect of riding a Murray-Jarry tandem, especially after veteran Antti Niemi blew a gasket and had to be released. But rest assured, the Penguins’ net is in good hands.
Of course, hockey’s a team sport, and Tristan had plenty of help last night. A healthy hunk of it came from Sprong.
To say that few Penguins, past or present, have generated the sense of anticipation that surrounds the Amsterdam native would be an understatement of the highest magnitude. Indeed, Sprong’s created a buzz among Penguins Nation unmatched since Evgeni Malkin bid an emotional dasvidaniya to parents Natalia and Vladimir and defected from Mother Russia back in 2006.
Skating alongside Sidney Crosby, the fuzzy-cheeked rookie provided a tantalizing peek at his abilities, ones that earned him AHL Player of the Month honors for December. Bursting into the New York zone on a 2-on-1, he placed his stick in perfect position to receive Sid’s sharp, cross-crease pass and adroitly directed it home.
A nice goal, for sure. However, it was his second tally that really grabbed my attention…and made my heart skip a beat. After retrieving a sweet bounce pass off the left side boards from Justin Schultz, Sprong didn’t hesitate. Skating straight for the net, he beat Isles goalie Jaroslav Halak high to the glove side with a beautiful top-shelf wrister, banking it off the iron, to boot.
Watching the replays, it appeared Sprong had perhaps the tiniest sliver of an opening. Yet somehow he threaded the needle.
Breathtaking. A goal scorer’s goal, for sure.
By contrast, Simon’s skills are more subtle, yet every bit as deadly. Excellent in traffic despite his small stature, he excels at making short, crisp passes, like the one he delivered to spring Crosby and Sprong on the game-winning goal.
Simon also reads the game at a high level and has a knack for finding the seams, in a style reminiscent of former Jussi Jokinen. The fact that he’s comfortable on left wing…an area of need? A huge bonus.
Toss in newcomer Jamie Oleksiak, who seems to be developing nicely (51.1 Corsi) while adding a much needed physical presence to the defense?
Even in this brackish season, flowers are abloom.
Puckpourri
Crosby tallied a goal and three assists to earn the number one star. Malkin rounded out the scoring with his 15th goal of the season, a power-play tally at 3:30 of the second period.
The Pens outshot the Islanders, 31-10, during a 30-minute stretch of the first and second periods. They finished the game with a 38-31 edge in shots on goal.
Sprong paced the locals with six shots, one behind Islanders captain John Tavares. Ian Cole and Kris Letang registered five shots apiece.
Hey Rick,
I hear what you are saying with Murray looking jittery at the same time I also read what Jim said below about goaltending not being the issue. I am really starting to believe that it is the main issue.
I took a page out of tOR’s book this morning and went in search to see if there is anything like CORSI stats for goaltenders and wow did I find a surprise.
There is a stat called GSAA “goals saved against average” There is a long explanation of the stat here: http://ingoalmag.com/analysis/gsaa-essential-statistic-evaluating-goaltenders/
It is supposedly the stat of stats when compairing goaltenders. In searching that stat I came up with a website that tracks it for all of the goaltenders: http://corsica.hockey/goalie-stats/
Low and behold the worst goaltender out of 67 goaltenders who have played in the NHL this year is Matt Murray at -11.14. Not only is he the lowest, he is the only one in negative double digits. To compare, Tristan Jarry is #20 at +3.37.
I’m not one to follow the Corsi and other stats, but that is huge. I have mentioned before that Murray in my opinion has a blaring weakness that I had noticed sitting behind him game after game. That weakness along with a glove hand side that is getting exploited way more than Fleury’s ever did spells huge problems.
Murray this year is not getting the cherry picked games that Sullivan handed him in the past and it is really showing.
I don’t know if Murray’s new contract is one way or if it is even possible to send him down to get his confidence up and work on his issues, but he is young and needs work. In the mean time I would really like to see Jarry get more time. I believe Sullivan is already headed in that direction anyway.
Just a mild push back Phil,
On that website you listed for us explaining the GSAA it lists strengths and weaknesses of the stat. Among the weaknesses it stats that Quality of chances are not taken into account, nor is fatigue factor after 30 shots, it also talks about normalizing the stat to 60min to make it a more relevant stat. I agree whole heartedly that Sullie needs to play Jarry more, at least right now, while he is hot. I have always been a fan of play the hot goalie. But Murray’s GSAA stat is seriously skewed by a very porous, very weak defense that gives up way to many odd man breaks and cannot move opponents out from in front of a net.
If fatigue after 30 over-all shots should be considered in the equation as your above website has intimated so should the volume of high quality scoring chances, not just physical but mental fatigue. Ove rthe last 2 games he has played, I have seen signs of Murray’s once unflappable personality deteriorate. After ceding a 4th goal on one of way too many great scoring opportunities he fished the puck out of his net and flung it up ice with his blocker hand in disgust. On one of the goals in his last game, he uncharacteristically over committed ala Fleury and was way out to his right on a shooter when the pass was slipped back into the slot for a wide open net goal.
Just look at Fleury himself. Last year behind theis pathetic D, he struggled heavily, particularly early on. His Sv% was well below 0.900 for most of the first half of the season. This year, behind a much more capable defense (Embarrassingly even more for the Pens defense an expansion Defense) he is destroying the league. In fact, Vegas’ D has made every goalie (and they had a string of them with their injury issues in goal) look very, very good.
Look just at Letang. First not only has he tipped just as many goals into his own net (2) as he has deposited into opposing nets (2) he has one of the worst even strength Team Goals Allowed per 60 minutes 3.52 (worst among D, only a F has higher), but his CORSI shot attempts per 60 minutes of even strength is among the lowest 48.35. When he is on the ice teams are not needing a lot of shot attempts, he is giving them prime shot attempts with his giveaways and bad decisions. He isn’t the only either.
So, although I find that stat like all other stats, interesting. The limitations of that stat do not lend that much gravity to it for me. I am not as concerned for Murray at the moment as others may be. If Murray were as bad as some like to think, there is no way in Heaven or earth that he could have won 2 – Cups as a rookie. Particularly last year when he had 3 shutouts against teams desperate to dethrone the Champs.
Hey tOR,
I was with you believing it was the defense all season right up until Jarry came in and put up way better numbers in front of the exact same defense. I know we pick on them, but they are the core defense that has won two Stanley Cups in a row.
You mentioned that every goaltender for Vegas has a good rating because of their defense and I look at Maxime Legacy of Vegas at 2nd worst GSAA behind Murray.
I would also like to point out a very fair comparison being Edmonton’s goalie. I have only seen a handful of Talbot’s games, and also highlights on the NHL channel but he has a horrible defense in front of him, gets pelted with a ridiculous amount of breakaways and has more shots against per game than Murray. Cam Talbot is right in the middle of the pack at -0.7.
Hey Phil,
Maybe some day I will change my mind, but at this point, there are too many confounding variable for me to place any real weight to this stat. Until the NHL keeps an objective, quantitative track on Shots by Rebound, Screened, Odd man breaks of all types, shot length etc for each goalie, I am not all that sure I will change my mind.
Case in point Antti Niemi has a 0.918 save% in Montreal this year (no GSAA listed probably due to multiple teams) his Save% was 0.828. The Penguins D stinks, particularly Hunwick and Letang. The Pens goalies (Fleury and Murray) bailed them out last year in the Playoffs. Fortunately the Pens had 2 very High Quality Goalies, when they wore MAF out MM stepped in.
And again, don’t get me wrong, I am very old school and believe in playing the hot hand in goal, so I do, repeat do advocate continue playing Jarry but Jarry didn’t come in at the beginning of the year when the D was at its worst. Murray’s worst games game at the same time Niemi was getting shelled as well.
Comparing Murray to Jarry isn’t a fair vindication of the teams pathetic D. Comparing Niemi’s time in the ‘burgh to his time in Montreal is far better.
Antti Niemi is a very poor case in point. As I remember ever game he played was the back end of games the Penguins played the night before and the other team did not. Two of them came against Tampa Bay. All three were cases of Sullivan protecting Murray who was supposed to be the main goaltender who usually gets the tougher game.
You could just compare Murray and Jarry’s last 8 games.
Actually Phil, Niemi only has 2 starts of his 4 games so far for Montreal and those 2 starts came on the back end of back-to-back series, so a comparison between his work in Montreal and in Pgh is very relative and on point. The Teams he has faced while in the Habs uniform are McDavid’s Oilers 2x, Matthews Leafs 1x and Nashville who are 9th in the league in scoring/game and he took them to a shoot out.
The Penguins D was nearly non-existent at the beginning of the season, may be getting better now but that may only because they couldn’t have gotten much worse. The best D-man right now is the kid Oleksiak. All past performances and future expectations aside as a group, the Pens D is only slightly more effective than pylons.
Niemi has a ton of padded stats against teams that were in prevent mode after the game was won . Pittsburgh was all 100% 2nd game nothing else.
Edmonton is 19th in goals scored vs Tampa #1 in goals. If we are getting picky.
Murray save % is .852 in his last four starts. I don’t have the stats, but I would venture to say an even worse GSAA than the beginning of the year. Jarry is .963 in his starts since Oleksiak same time period.
Same defense, same time, same shots. Even played one of the same teams and faced the exact same amount of shots by that team in this period of time. If that is not apples to apples I don’t know what is.
The defense isn’t perfect that’s for sure, but I’m going to be holding off on blaming the defense for all of the Penguins problems for now.
Matt Murray’s GSAA was 14.48 last year but -8.97 this year. What is the difference, MAFs was -4.8 last year and is 10.96 this year. What is the difference? The D playing in front of them. As the above website you reference notes that there should be a fatigue factor after 30 shots per game. following that logic, there would also need to be a factor of number of game facing the number of odd man breaks.
As I noted above, Murray is not the same Murray of last year. He is now a frustrated goalie from the pathetic D he has been trying to bail out all season. He is tossing pucks around and yes, he is over-reacting right now, but that over-reaction was not his hallmark last year. He is trying to guess rather than react this year.
Again, I agree play, Jarry, ride him while he is hot. But don’t be surprised when Murray goes back to being lights out like he was last year when he posted the 14.48 GSAA, if he can get a couple of games back-stopping good D play or vice – verse if the Pens D continues its turnstyle efforts watch for Jarry to crumble and start guessing too with a proportional fall in his GSAA.
There are only so many times a person can ignore their own D-men’s deflecting shots past them, coughing up pucks in the slot, battling to see thru screens, or any of the other absentee D efforts before morale deteriorates.
The defense is mainly the core group of guys that have won two cups in a row. A good goalie doesn’t give up and get frustrated when the going gets tough. Every goaltender has his own team deflect pucks in. There are easily 25 teams with worse defenses. His numbers are the worst in the entire league. It is that simple.
We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I believe the numbers last year reflect Sullivan cherry picking his games for him as I stated all year.
I hope he does come back like you are saying.
Ha! Every time I talk up a player they have a horrible night. I should have known better.
First thing I do when I sit down in my seat at the games is I turn to my buddy and say “that 87 guy sucks” he usually quips back with a “I don’t even know why he is in the NHL” That assures that Crosby will have a good night. 🙂
Hey Phil,
I know the feeling all-too-well, especially on the flip side.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been critical of a player, and he winds up scoring a couple of goals.
Hmmmm. Maybe I need to bad-mouth Carl Hagelin a little. Might be just the thing to get him going … 🙂
Rick
Hey Phil and Other Rick,
Really interesting stuff. Not being a huge advanced stats guy, I confess, I’d never heard of the GSAA. So you’re both way ahead of me in terms of speaking (and writing) knowledgeably on the subject.
Going strictly by the eye test, Murray’s been more vulnerable this season. He seems to be giving up cheesy goals with far greater frequency, and he doesn’t appear to be as bomb-proof in terms of composure.
Still, I’m kind of stunned that he would be at the rock-bottom of any goaltender list. (Are you sure Antti Niemi didn’t slip in beneath him???)
I agree with Other Rick that the Pens’ d-zone coverage has been downright atrocious at times, although my sense is it’s been better of late since we acquired Oleksiak. I don’t know if anyone quantifies odd-man breaks against, but if so, we’ve got to be leading the league, to say nothing of all the quality chances and second looks we surrender.
Fortunately, I do feel we have a very viable option in Jarry. His presence might afford Sullivan the luxury of easing back on Murray’s workload, which might help ‘Muzz’ regroup a little.
Phil, I’m curious about this weakness you’ve spotted in Murray’s style …
Rick
Agreed Rick,
Oleksiak is making a huge difference on the team D (word play intended). If I were in charge and would go into fire-sale mode, although in my book everyone is for sale for the right price, Oleksiak would only be trade under the highest returns for a D man. In fact, the 3 safest D men would be Oleksiak, Schultz, and Cole. Schultz definitely not due to anything he did this year, but knowing his upside. Cole again not for anything he is doing this year but for knowing how well he has paired in the past with Cole. And Oleksiak for everything I am seeing from him this year.
Even though I don’t have any beefs with Dumoulin or Maatta, I don’t think they really have hurt the team, at least not as badly as Letang or Hunwick, but I also don’t see them making any real difference in the team. With regards to the idea of baseballs WAR stats invoked by the above website detailing the meaning of GSAA I really don’t see either of those 2 contributing that much more than the average replacement player, at least not commensurate to their $$$$ hit. (I’ll probably will stir up some heat with that statement but if anyone hates it, remember not only that it is just my opinion but what that say about opinions)
Hey Other Rick,
Your comments about the Pens’ d got me to thinking about Letang, so I checked his giveaways. He’s currently tied for third in the league with Keith Yandle at 59.
Since it’s easy to take a stat out of context, I took a look at the other top guys. Sure enough, the top ten players in the NHL in giveaways are d-men, and include other primo offensive types like Yandle, Kevin Shattenkirk, Mike Green and Brent Burns, who has 81 (holy schnikes)!
Next, I checked to see if this is a normal giveaway rate for ‘Tanger’. It’s not. His career highs are 69 in ’15-16 and 60 in ’14-15, so he’s well above his usual pace.
Kind of confirms what we already know…that he’s having a rough time with his puckhandling and decision making.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Today was the first day I had heard of GSAA and was very surprised to see Murray at the bottom of the list.
I sit up high behind Murray with a birds eye view. What worries me is a combination of 3 things.
1) His speed side to side, especial when having to redirect back the other way.
2) He way overskates his angles.
3) He needs a second to get his angles correct.
That is why he was always great on the first shot but fails miserably on the second. Now that the shooters have glove hand on him, not even the first shot is safe.
That is just what I see, maybe it is just because I’ve been blessed watching Fleury dart left to right for years. Who knows.
I’m hoping it’s sophomore jitters, but worried that it’s because for the first time he has had to play the tough games.
Hey Phil,
I’ve read that beneath Murray’s calm, collected exterior is a fiercely competitive guy.
Given his quietly intense nature, I wonder if he’s pressing a bit to get his game back in sync. It might explain the tendency to overskate his angles.
Then again, perhaps it’s a chronic issue that he needs to resolve.
If memory serves me correctly, Fleury had similar issues early in his career. I distinctly remember a quote from Brooks Orpik to the effect that Flower would often move too aggressively and slide past the puck. Eventually, he learned to curb his instincts and make his uber-athleticism work for him.
Hopefully, Murray will iron things out, too. It’s easy to forget that he’s still a kid.
Rick
PS–Nobody could move post-to-post like Flower, could they?
It was announced that Jarry is starting tonight.
Hey Guys,
Boston just gave Carolina a thrashing tonight. 7-1 .Yes the same team that humiliated us 4-0 the night before.
Some will blame the back to back games for the Canes as the reason for the loss. I think not. The west is changing guys and Boston represents one of those young clubs with some elite veteran presence whose fortunes are on the rise where by the Pens since the start of the season have been going the other way.
Will Boston be tired today and we catch a break and maybe sneak in a win?
We should not have to.We are the Cup champs but we sure do not play like it.
Lets Go Pens.
Hey Jim,
I was hoping that Carolina would have put up a fight to wear Boston down a little.
With Carrado being waived for reassignment I wonder if Dumoulin will be ready for tonight?
Here is to the start of a winning streak, (2 games) Let’s Go Pens!
Hey Rick,
I am a big supporter of Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry. I have no problem in riding either of then into a Chase for another Cup. Our issues are many, but goal tending is not one of them. Wingers with size, speed, skill and snarl ranks up their at the top of my list. You know what i mean. A Cam Neely or a young Jaromir Jagr type who does not need Sid or Geno to carry all the load.A true power forward ! The type that drives the defense back and can create a cycle game almost single handed. Jake and Connor can not do that. Plus we need to remedy the Letang situation sooner than later.
I know I keep changing names every time i post, except Letang, but if Sid had a good power forward on his right or left side and then Riley had a similar one for his left side , i think the outcome may be different.Riley is not Bonino but I think with the right line mates he may come around.Plus of course getting another offensive d- man to replace Letang.
But a win is a win even if the competition is weak.
BTW Rick, – 38 tonight with the wind chill . Crazy Cold.
Jim
Hey Jim,
I was worried about you, my friend. I alluded (only half in jest) to you possibly being stuck under a snow drift up in NB. I’m happy to find out you’re not … 🙂
But minus-38? Yikes … 🙁
I, too, covet the type of player you’re talking about…a bona fide, honest-to-goodness power forward. I drool at the thought of adding a guy like Evander Kane…except he’s a pending UFA with a bit of an attitude problem, to boot. But I’ve love to see us land a player of his ilk.
Max Pacioretty’s name has been bandied about, too. I know you and Other Rick have discussed him. He doesn’t possess Kane’s mean streak which, in this day and age, may be an overrated quality. But he’s considerably more affordable and under contract for another year at $4.5 million. Which certainly makes him an attractive option.
Rick
Hey Rick and Jim,
I would think either player would at least get the Pens into the playoffs. However, in Kane’s case, unless they could sign him to an extension, the mill stone of a Rent-a-Player may out way any positive Mojo once the play-offs start. So, if I had my choice between the two, I would choose Pacioretty.
However, I still am dreaming about a JR working out some magic to get enough draft picks off of other teams for players like Letang, Cole (would rather keep him but the writing may be on the wall), and Sheary, to then trade picks/prospects for Karlsson and Pageau. I can dream can’t I?
I still would love to see a line-up of;
Crosby – Sprong – Simon
Malkin – Kessel – Guentzel
Pageau – Hornqvist – Rust
Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Reaves
with Rowney and Hagelin swing men toggling in on the 4th line depending on speed or brawn.
I am not sure what I would like my D pairings just yet, I really hate to part with Cole. The Pens D could blow up my plans.
If the Pens don’t get a winning streak rolling starting this coming week, I would give up on the idea of 3-peating and start selling trying to trade up toward a shot at Rasmus Dahlin. In this case I would sit down with Hornqvist and let him know I wanted a shot to resign him at the end of the season but use him to get max draft picks.
I also still would love to get Hague off of Vegas, the guy I wanted to draft in the 1st round this year rather than trade for Reaves. As I wrote once before he has 46 points in 39 games and 71 PIM in the OHL.
Also, in a case of giving up on 3-peating I would start getting good looks at Blueger, Aston-Reese, Pedan, Tinordi, DeSmith, and Bengtsson if he is anywhere (Haven’t seen/heardanything on him in a while.
Hey Rick,
Sounds like we watched the game from the same point of view. I haven’t totally given up on this season. All the Penguins really need is to get into the dance. Once the dance starts, I do think the Pens would have an edge over all opponents they face, if they can get at least the last invitation.
Hey Other Rick,
Yes, indeed! The kids certainly made their collective presence felt last night, didn’t they? If Sprong, in particular, can mesh with Sid and score at a reasonably consistent clip, perhaps all is not lost.
As you so aptly mentioned, if we can at least get to the dance, I wouldn’t want to face us come playoff time.
I was glancing at our team stats this morning. And, while it’s admittedly early for both of them, Sprong (69.0) and Simon’s (61.5) Corsi’s are off the charts.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Agreed, it is early, but the energy they are showing certainly backs up their CORSI, An interesting way to look at CORSI is look at the raw numbers with respect to their 60 minute normalization. As you say it is very early to put too much weight in what they are doing, but consider this; Sprong has gotten a rap that he has been weak defensively. If you normalized his CORSI to 60 minutes at even strength, opponents are only managing 33.1 shots per 60 minutes, lowest on the team.
What I am getting at is you can have high CORSI numbers from trading chances, giving your opponents good looks at your own net while creating opportunities for yourself (Letang) but at this point, Sprong is not only are they getting good looks at his opponents goalies, he really is tilting the ice, not trading chances.
Simon, sees the game at least as good as Sheary, if not better, and although no hulking giant, has 2″ on Sheary and so far seems much stronger on the puck.
Most importantly, these two kids are bringing love of the game back to mentally worn out players who may be pressing too hard.