It’s one of the all-time great comedy routines. Who’s on First, sublimely performed by the Hollywood Star duo of Bud Abbott and Lou Costello.
Who’s on First? What’s on second? Third?
I don’t know.
Sounds an awful lot like the Penguins’ potential line combinations for the coming season, doesn’t it? Especially given the fact that black-and-gold coach Mike Sullivan’s a notorious line shuffler.
Still, it might be interesting…and a challenge to boot…to ferret out what the lineup’s going to look like on opening night, especially given our bounty of centers and right wings and the comparative dearth of left wings. Subject to change, of course.
Here goes.
FIRST LINE: It’s pretty much a given that Jake Guentzel will man the port side next to Sidney Crosby. They combined for 19 goals during the 2018 postseason, accounting for a staggering 45 percent of the team’s output. Indeed, the preternatural pair seem to have an innate feel for each other.
Who’ll man the starboard side with Jake and Sid? Good question. Patric Hornqvist’s always displayed good chemistry with No. 87, and the Swedish banger brings a much-needed edge to the top unit. Yet given the fact that sniper Daniel Sprong is a virtual lock to make the club…at least according to GM Jim Rutherford…it might make more sense to give the kid a crack at top-line duty rather than consigning him to an unfamiliar bottom-six role.
Speedy and tenacious, Bryan Rust is another option, although he’s likely to switch to left wing.
Best Guess: Guentzel–Crosby–Hornqvist
SECOND LINE: With all the drama surrounding Phil Kessel this summer and his rumored dissatisfaction with a third-line role, it’s a good bet No. 81 will open the season in his favored slot next to Evgeni Malkin. Makes sense, too, considering “Phil the Thrill” piled up a career-best 92 points while skating mostly with Malkin. It sure didn’t hurt “Geno’s” game, either (98 points).
Fleet-footed Carl Hagelin meshed well with the dynamic duo, providing speed, a defensive conscience and occasional offense. But don’t be surprised if Sullivan continues to tinker with Kessel on the third line.
Best Guess: Hagelin–Malkin–Kessel
THIRD LINE: Here’s where it starts to get dicey. Rutherford didn’t fork over a first-round pick last spring to put Derick Brassard in mothballs…or play him at left wing. Look for Brassard…a surprise flop in the postseason…to anchor the third line, at least for starters.
His wingers? Anybody’s guess. If nothing changes, personnel-wise, Rust in all likelihood will get first crack at the port-side slot. Centers Matt Cullen and Riley Sheahan could cycle through on left wing as well. Possibly Dominik Simon, too.
On the right side? Sprong may start the season there. Look for Hornqvist and Kessel to settle in from time-to-time when Sullivan seeks to spice things up.
Best Guess: Rust–Brassard–Sprong
FOURTH LINE: Another potential Mulligan stew, especially given the under-the-radar summertime signings of center Derek Grant and right wing Jimmy Hayes.
Logic dictates that Sheahan will open the season as the fourth-line center. Cullen will probably man left wing, although it’s possible the roles could be reversed with Sheahan sliding to port. Given Cullen’s age, Simon could see occasional duty on the left side as well.
Zach Aston-Reese appears to be the front runner on right wing, with a possible push from the hulking Hayes, a 19-goal scorer with Florida in 2014-15.
Best Guess: Cullen–Sheahan–Aston-Reese
DEFENSE: There aren’t nearly as many moving parts on defense. Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang, Olli Maatta, Jamie Oleksiak, Justin Schultz and newcomer Jack Johnson should flesh out the blue-line corps, with Chad Ruhwedel in reserve.
While anything’s possible, it’s hard to imagine Sullivan breaking up the top pairing of Dumoulin and Letang. Let’s face it, No. 58’s not the easiest guy to partner with, and Dumoulin learned to mitigate “Tanger’s” all-too-frequent wanderings and lapses about as well as anyone could hope to.
The second and third pairings are a different matter. We could see Maatta with Schultz and Johnson with Oleksiak…or vice versa.
GOAL: Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry will likely open the season between the pipes, although ultra-cool Casey DeSmith could mount a challenge as backup.
I’ll throw it open to our faithful PenguinPoop readers and commenters. Barring injuries, what do you think the Pens’ lineup will look like on opening night?
Rick
Good topic for discussion – just wanted to make an interesting point.
Malkin and Kessel picked up a little over 40% of there points on the
Power play. In comparison Connor McDavid had 5 goals and 15asst
on the Power play and ended up with 108pts.
My question – how effective were Malkin and Kessel playing together?
On the Power play which was ranked #1 in the league they had the
benefit of having the best player in the world on the ice with them.
Just food for thought – Maybe Sullivan saw something we didn’t in 5 on 5
situations. If I remember correctly Guentzel had 36 or 38 points even strength
while playing less minutes and spending limited minutes on the Power play.
Power Play Points
Kessel 42 ppp
Malkin 38 ppp
Crosby 38 ppp
Hey Mike,
I hope you don’t mind me jumping in here.
I do hear what you are saying about the points Malkin and Kessel scored on the PP but consider this – Malkin and Kessel rarely played together other than on the PP, Sullivan tried to spread the scoring out over 3 lines. And looking at each of the 3 players – Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel, Malkin and Kessel out produced Crosby per 60 minutes of ice at even strength last year while Crosby was a hair better on the PP than either Malkin or Kessel;
Even Strength
Crosby 0.9 G, 1.4 A, and 2.2 Pnts
Malkin 1.4 G, 1.6 A, and 3.0 Pnts
Kessel 1.1 G, 1.4 A, and 2.5 Pnts
Power Play
Crosby 1.8 G, 5.5 A, 11.4 Pnts
Malkin 2.9 G, 4.9 A, and 7.8 Pnts
Kessel 2.3 G, 5.7 A, and 11.2 Pnts
Looking at these numbers it would appear that Crosby was the one benefiting from Malkin and Kessel on the PP considering how low his Even Strength production was while saddled with Conor Sheary for the bulk of the season. The eye test also tells me Malkin and Kessel could be quite a dynamic duo. Every brief time they are together they light up the score board. There was a run of OT games in the middle of the season where those 2 got the GW in OT and I commented on it when it happened. Even before there was an HBK line, Hagelin experienced some of his best production manning the Left flank for Malkin and Kessel.
I am fairly confident that Malkin – Kessel can be extremely synergistic and if Sullivan lets them play together can put up even bigger even strength Points per 60 minutes this year.
Sorry one more comparison,
McDavid’s Even Strength Numbers were; 1.5 G, 2.1 A, and 3.6 Pnts only a ,1 better than Malkin, While his PP numbers were horrible in comparison; 1.2 G and 3.6 A.
McDavid just got way more TOI
Sorry another correction,
I transposed Team Goals per 60 minutes for Points per minute on the PP for Crosby and Kessel Crosby had 7.3 Points per 60 minutes PP TOI and Kessel 8.0 not 11.4 and 11.2
and McDavid 0.6 points per 60minutes better than Malkin
It was really early this AM when I typed that and my eyes weren’t focused I guess.
The Other Rick
One quick point on your responses. I think no matter what the
numbers say (stats) everyone benefits by playing along side of
Sid. Just his presence on the ice gives every other player out
there a little more room to operate.
Also, McDavid played on an Edmonton team that sucked!! Put
him on the ice with the #1 Power Play unit in the league “WOW”
All-things considered I think McDavid’s numbers especially even
strength are impressive.
Went I created my comment I really didn’t go deep into the numbers.
I think a good comparison would be Guentzel – His numbers even
strength (less ice-time) are impressive – he received very little PP
time with the first unit to help pad his stats.
Hey MIke,
I am not trying to put Crosby down. I agree, who you play with can be very, very important, as I pointed out, Crosby was saddled with Conor Sheary far too much last year just as Kessel was not really given an elite pivot man most of the season (no offense to Sheahan) yet only Kucherov was really better than Kessel at even strength.
Also, I should have been a little more clear in my addendum reply, when my eyes came into better focus, I realized McDavid was way better Even Strength 3.6 to 3.0 on Malkin. MacKinnon was even better yet 4.0.
My real point is that I do believe the evidence suggests that a Malkin – Kessel combo would be explosive. Even though Malkin is in truth Center 1A, he is forced to play 2nd line and I doubt any other team could afford to play the 2nd best RW in the League on a 2nd line that boasts the 3rd best Center in the league (or 4th if you want to put MacKinnon in that group with McDavid and Crosby as NHL.com list the top 2).
With Crosby, Malkin, Brassard, Sheahan, Grant, Blueger, and Cullen, the Pens have to have the deepest list of Centers in the league.
With Kessel, Hornqvist, Sprong, Rust, and Aston-Reese, they may also have the deepest pool of RWs as well.
The Pens only problem, offensively, is the left side. Unless you skate Brassard on the LW, they only have Guentzel, after that they have some prospects but no proven scoring depth. (Hagelin is a great defensive forward but his Offensive contributions over the last 2 years has been minimal)
But offense is not the Pens real problem. They can score and score in droves, most of the time, especially now that Sheary is gone and Crosby will have to get a qualified RW.
Defense is the main area of concern. I am not going to preface this with the obligatory sorry because I am not sorry. If I were the Coach or GM, I would still be in the market for 2 right handed Defensemen.
Excellent points, Mike (no pun intended).
As you suggest, perhaps Sullivan and the coaching staff saw something regarding the 5-on-5 play of Kessel and Malkin. To my eye, they were very effective together, especially after Hagelin settled in on left wing and had their backs defensively. But, again, that’s just my perception. It’s not based on any hard numbers. And it’s understandable Sullivan would try to establish three scoring lines instead of two. It just didn’t work out so well in playoffs.
I’m especially interested to see how Sully handles the backlog at center. Counting Teddy Blueger at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, we go seven deep down the middle.
To me, it begs for dealing a center for a left wing.
Rick
Rick
Great point – Center appears to be a position of strength – Like you
I’m keeping my fingers crossed that JR is only using “Cullen” if
our younger players aren’t ready.
Also, in my mind I’m already scrapping the idea of moving Brassard
to the wing “horrible idea” – thats just there way of creating a spot
for Cullen to center the 4th line. Doesn’t make sense.
Left wing concerns me – I’m luke warm on ZAR cold on Simon and
worried about Rust durability. It should be interesting.
Hey Mike,
As we’ve shared before, I think we have a lot of the same concerns.
Good point about Rust’s durability…he plays with such abandon he’s a frequent visitor to IR. So is Murray, for that matter.
Like you and Other Rick, I’m not certain what role they have in mind for Cullen. Do they see him as an every day player? I don’t think JR would’ve signed “Cully” if he intended to park him in the press box, nor do I think Cullen would’ve signed with us if that were the case. Some assurances about his ice time and role must’ve been made.
While I think JR upgraded the ‘d’ with the Johnson signing (over Hunwick and Ruhwedel) I’m still concerned with our team defense and, for that matter, our penalty killing.
The thought of Kessel and Sprong paying only cursory attention to their defensive chores doesn’t soothe my nerves any, either. And if we have a bunch of guys playing out of position up front…well…you get my drift. Murray may get burns on the back of his neck from all the flashing red lights.
Still concerned about muscle…or lack of. Wish we had at least one aggressive, buzz-saw type to plug in up front.
Rick
Hey Rick,
So when it comes time to pay the first baseman who gets the money?
You have me rethinking myself here right now. I am not sure now who I would play where. I have been writing and rewriting my comments thinking what I want to do but I can’t come up with anything right now. I want to see what Lindberg and Blueger look like before I would want to make any real decisions if I were coach.
In all honesty, the only players who I would count as opening night players are; Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Murray, Hornqvist, Schultz, and Oleksiak. Every other player, including Letang would have to earn their roster spots during preseason. Furthermore, unlike what the Penguins seem to be doing I would tend to want to add 2 – 3 kids to the 23 roster spots opting for the younger player when all else is equal or close at least 2 instances. Crosby and Malkin have 3 Cups and Kessel, Murray, and Hornqvist not only have 2 Cups but were integral parts of those 2 Cups. So, despite the Penguins attempted spin, there should be no lack of veteran leadership in the locker room.
And on D, I would love to see what Dumoulin could do with a better D partner, but until the Pens dump Letang, he may never get that chance because he seems to be the best at mitigating Letang’s lack of defensive acumen – and we all know that no matter what the truth is, Capt Edward Smith (Pens management) will bull headedly keep playing and giving Letang undeserved minutes all the while the iceberg looms dead ahead of them