I confess. I was pulling like mad for Columbus to win its first-round playoff series with Washington. Not that the Blue Jackets would’ve been a piece of cake. But we had our way with them this season and seemed to match up well.
I’m not nearly as comfortable playing the Capitals. Let me count the ways.
First, there’s a little thing called the law of averages. The longer a trend goes, the closer it comes to ending.
How long has the Penguins’ mastery of the Caps lasted? A looooooong time. Try seven-straight playoff series, dating all the way back to 1995. To put that in perspective, Bill Clinton was president, Eddie Johnston our coach. Jaromir Jagr was a budding 22-year-old superstar who’d just won his first of five scoring titles.
That long.
Second? This collection of Capitals appears to be a far different breed than the puffed-up postseason chokers of the past couple of years. Simply put, a team doesn’t rally from a 2-0 series deficit against a tough team like Columbus by being mentally soft.
I admit, the Caps surprised me this year. When they bled off quality skaters like Karl Alzner, Marcus Johansson, Nate Schmidt and Justin Williams over the summer, I thought they’d be a non-factor. Instead, they captured a third-straight Metropolitan Division crown.
Washington still has lots of great players. Niklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Alex Ovechkin are formidable, battle-tested talents, as is high-scoring defenseman John Carlson. There’s plenty of secondary scoring with the likes of Lars Eller, T. J. Oshie and thug-turned-player Tom Wilson. And coach Barry Trotz has gotten solid contributions from speedy Jakub Vrana and a mostly no-name cadre of kids. To top it off, this bunch seems more solid and determined than their Presidents’ Trophy predecessors.
The Caps played us tough this year, too, splitting four regular-season meetings. You know they’re motivated.
So are the Pens. Sidney Crosby’s obsessed with winning another Cup, to the tune of six goals and 13 points during the opening-round conquest of Philadelphia. Talk about making a statement. When hockey’s best player wants to win that badly, his teammates have no choice but to follow his lead.
Guys like Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Patric Hornqvist don’t need any coaxing, either. The Pens may be the most driven team in hockey. And no one can match us in terms of big-game experience. When it gets down to rug cuttin’ time, our boys are at their best when it matters the most. From superstars to foot soldiers like Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, someone always rises to the occasion.
Let’s hope the trend continues.
Styles Make Fights
The Pens and Caps play a similar game predicated on speed, sand and skill. Washington possesses more muscle and isn’t shy about flexing it, especially when Wilson and ex-Pen Brooks Orpik hit the ice. We’ll need to keep our collective heads up. Look for the ‘Big Rig’ Jamie Oleksiak and Wilson to clash at some point.
Both clubs boast a high-octane offense. The Pens ranked fourth in goals scored during the regular season, the Caps five notches behind. Likewise, both teams possess a potent power play and middle-of-pack penalty killing.
Defense appears to be the question mark. Kris Letang must improve his decision-making, especially in the d-zone. He needs to keep a lid on his temper, too.
The DC crew features a solid top three of Carlson, former Pen Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov, but there’s a significant drop-off after that. The fact that Orpik logs top-four minutes bodes well. We’ve exploited him to the tune of a minus-5 over the past two postseasons.
In goal, Matt Murray and former Vezina winner Braden Holtby finished disappointing regular seasons with virtually identical numbers. But Murray’s won two Cups. And we’ve solved Holtby in the past.
Advantage Pens.
If You Haven’t Got Your Health…
Since the blood-rivals are so evenly matched, injuries could be a huge deciding factor. The Caps are presently without the services of Andre Burakovsky, a slippery scorer and traditional black-and-gold thorn.
Sans Malkin and Carl Hagelin…two-thirds of their second line…the Pens are in decidedly worse shape. With a huge chunk of talent, leadership and playoff experience languishing in the whirlpool, the acquisition of Derick Brassard looms larger than ever.
Let’s hope ‘Geno’ and ‘Hags’ return, and soon. We’ll need all hands on deck to vanquish the Caps.
By the Numbers
As I’d mentioned, the foes split their four regular-season meetings. Accordingly, there isn’t much to separate the clubs, statistically speaking.
| Shots on Goal | Faceoffs | Hits | |||||
| Date | Result | PIT | WSH | PIT | WSH | PIT | WSH |
| 10/11/17 | PIT 3-2 | 36 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 16 | 26 |
| 11/10/17 | WSH 4-1 | 28 | 31 | 26 | 34 | 17 | 30 |
| 2/2/18 | PIT 7-4 | 39 | 33 | 31 | 32 | 29 | 31 |
| 4/1/18 | WSH 3-1 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 34 | 30 | 33 |
| Total | 136 | 120 | 121 | 138 | 92 | 120 | |
| Shot Attempts | Power Play | Giveaways | Takeaways | ||||||
| Date | Result | PIT | WSH | PIT | WSH | PIT | WSH | PIT | WSH |
| 10/11/17 | PIT 3-2 | 57 | 54 | 3-6 | 0-4 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 5 |
| 11/10/17 | WSH 4-1 | 59 | 56 | 0-4 | 2-6 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 12 |
| 2/2/18 | PIT 7-4 | 64 | 54 | 3-4 | 0-3 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 4/1/18 | WSH 3-1 | 59 | 57 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Total | 239 | 221 | 6-19 | 2-18 | 40 | 43 | 28 | 28 | |
While the Caps controlled the faceoff circle, it didn’t put a significant drag on the Pens’ puck possession numbers. A hidden nugget? We held a decided edge in special-teams play.
Prediction
Mark Madden cautioned on the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the series is too close to call. I agree. My head says Washington…my heart says Pens. I’ll go with my heart.
Pens in seven.
Hi,
Tighten up defensively
Shoot the puck
Stop stupid pinching and neutral turnovers (brutal turnovers )
Deep gap and attacking with speed
Heavy awareness , urgency and consistency
Relentless Forechecks and Speed
Fowards and Defense needs to support one another.
Murray making better timely saves ( steal games)
We all know what I said about Letang and he shouldn’t be covering Ovie
Brassard needs to step and Sheahan I know he will
Hags and Geno coming back. More scoring from Phil . He’s the key with Sid, Jake , Hornqvist and Geno ( top lines depth) Hags is important as well for Geno and all the other things he do.
Rust , Zar and Simon bring secondary scoring
Strong Pk
Simple smart hockey
I believe these things are the key in series. ..
Nice.
Hi,
Lord. Letang will be covering Ovie. Coaching making a mistake there. It should be Dumoulin.
It will come down to secondary scoring….Kessel, Rust and Brassard. We need goals from them and Murray to hold the fort, plus Leturnover Letang needs to keep the giveaways to a bare min.!!
Pen’s in six.. maybe 7.
LET’S GO PEN’S!!
Malkin and Hagelin will not be playing game one. There is some good news though. Both of them skated today.
Coach’s thought: The Pens have gone through the Caps on the way to ALL 5 Cups! 😉
Hey Rick,
Great, Great Stuff! Thanks for such a thorough piece.
I was working on a similar article but I doubt I would have completed it as in depth as you. And since you have already done it, I’ll just add my 2 cents in here.
Honestly, I think this years Penguins team is slightly better than last years team over-all while the Capitals are at least slightly weaker on paper. I liked Bonino and Cullen but think that that Brassard and Sheahan are an upgrade over last year and they may be the key.
On LW I loved Kunitz and thought Wilson had some good points however, even though Kunitz does represent more experience than Aston-Reese and Aston-Reese is more of a RW but he can play LW his youth and enthusiasm mutes the loss to a great extent. I would only give Kunitz a slight edge. Hagelin is playing much better than he did last year as is Sheary. And although Wilson was more a fa scrapper than Simon is, Simon has a lot more high end talent. I know some people say that Wilson had high end talent, top 6 talent, and there were times when he appeared to flash a little, so far he hasn’t. And let’s face it, this year’s Guentzel is still playing like Guentzel of last playoff. So over-all I think LW is stronger.
RW is pretty much the same. Although the Pens seem to use Aston-Reese on the RW and Kuhnhackl on the LW, I see them and evaluate them in reverse.
Defense still scares me as it did last year. If the Penguins would have figured out a way to deal Hunwick instead of Cole for Brassard, I think I would actually be comfortable with this years D. I also tend to believe that if Pedan had been given a shot during the regular season, I would be more comfortable. But that is all water under the bridge. As it stands, thinking about it more deeply, I don’t think there is much difference between last year and this year if the team doesn’t put both Hunwick and Letang in the same game.
The only real drop of in talent the Penguins experienced this year (more important than Cole) is Fleury. DeSmith and Jarry fared pretty well in the face of an absent D during the regular season but have not played in the post season and as I mentioned about Fleury’s poke check, I definitely wouldn’t mind having that weapon in the Pens arsenal.
For the Caps, I do think they lost more talent than they picked up over the off-season and trade dead-line. However, I do think they are starting to play like a team rather than an amalgamation of stars.
I do think the Pens have 2 things still going for them;
1. Goaltending – Murray would appear not to be had as good of regular season this past year but I really do attribute that to too much Letang and Hunwick and not enough defensive responsibility. Holtby on the other hand not only struggled ove rthe course of the regular season but was supplanted by Grubner for a while as the go to guy. Holtby even got chased from the net during the regular season by the Pens.
2. The Monkey on the Caps back. You mentioned the odds start going against the Pens the more the Pens play the Caps. If we were flipping coins where random chance is the only factor, then I would agree with you, the odds could be getting longer each series. First, statistically each series like each flip of a coin should be looked at individually and not as history so the odds always stay the same. Second, random chance isn’t the only factor influencing the out come. In a close series, the Monkey on the Caps back will be a hard, hard foe to over-come. Much harder than any player on either team.
Although I am looking at this series a little differently, in terms of substance, I do see it very similarly in result. I am not all that confident, but I think the Pens win in 7. If the Capitals are going to win, I think they have to win in 4 or 5 games (sweep or near sweep).
Pedan is leading the way in the playoffs for WBS Pens. The baby Pens are losing their series 2-0 in a best of five so I imagine he will be called up as part of a practice squad soon along with your boy Sprong and a few others.
I know you’re down on the D, but Dumoulin and Maatta have returned to their normal great post season form each a +7. Shultz +5 has been solid. Oleksiac -1 seems to be keeping Ruhweedle -1 at about even. Letang +5 the “wild card” is leading the ‘D’ corps in point with 7. You have 4 defensemen with some serious playoff experience.
I hate to say this because I know Rick is mad at the Penalty Letang took, but I like when Letang plays with a chip on his shoulder. He was watching as Philadelphia took some really cheap shots at the Pens and did something about it. I also think he through Giroux way off his game.
The Pens will be facing another handful of cheap players in Washington. Letang has also been known to throw Ovechnik off his game.
I am not going to argue about Dumoulin particularly, he has turned it up again. I saw an interesting stat on him showing how much he turns it up in the playoffs. In 243 regular season games Dumo is +7 and has a Pnts/60 of 0.63 and a Gs/60 of 0.09. In 38 playoff games he is +14 and has a Pnts/60 of 0.94 and a Gs/60 of 0.19. He really does turn it up. He roughly doubles up come playoffs.
I won’t really change my opinion on the whole group until I see what they can do in Conference Championship. They did hold the Flyers to less than 30 SOG/game but I want to see what they can do over time and against more seasoned and better clubs. Murray still had to make some really tough saves and faced way too many break-aways for playoff hockey.
One place where we really miss Reaves (mind you I still would rather have drafted Hague but have to admit this) Giroux wouldn’t have reverted to 70s hockey, at least not unscathed had Reaves been in the line up.
I have been following WBS and am excited, but I should point out that although I do like Sprong, I do support the idea that Sullie has the final say (at least until a pattern develops). If the Penguins trade him for someone that helps the team and that Sullie uses, I won’t complain. I am not tied to any player.
Hey Phil,
Despite my general critique, I do agree the Pens’ defense has been pretty good thus far. Contrary to his early rep in Edmonton, Schultz has developed into an excellent two-way defenseman.
Your guy Maatta is doing a fine job, too. He really handles the puck well…his head’s always up and he makes very crisp passes…and he’s been real solid in the d-zone. The only fly in the ointment with Olli? He really labors to get up to speed when he gets turned, although he does a pretty good job of mitigating it.
Dumoulin’s been terrific…a real postseason stud. I wish Oleksiak had a partner who could free him up a little more offensively like Cole did, but Ruhwedel really hasn’t done a bad job at all.
Which brings me to Letang, who just drives me nuts. I agree he’s done more good things than bad. I just can’t watch him too closely or I lose my mind… 🙁
Rick
Hey Other Rick,
Sorry to derail your plans. But I’m glad you shared your 2 cents. Lots of really great insights… 🙂
The thing that strikes me about this Caps team…and you alluded to it when you noted that they’re playing like a team rather than an amalgamation of stars…is how they play as a unit. The whole seems to add up to a value greater than the sum of the parts…or something like that. Kind of an on-ice version of ‘The Borg.’
They don’t seem to get rattled and they don’t appear to unravel like they have in years past. We’re going to have to show the same qualities. No lackadaisical starts…no prolonged lapses in our team ‘d’ and attention to detail.
Perhaps a tall order for what’s been a hot-and-cold team.
Rick
If it helps you feel any better, I believe the losses to the Capitals were in back to back games. I see this series being determined by whether Malkin is healthy and goaltending.
Penguins have Holtby’s Number. Can Murray stop the Capitals?
That was an interesting thought Phil, the Penguins losing in back-to-back games, so I looked it up. All 4 of the Penguins games against the Caps were played in back-to-back series. 3 times the Caps were the front end team of the series. Only their last game (a loss) came at the back end. So tactically, the back-to-back may have figured into some decision making but fatigue should only have been a factor in the last loss.