• Fri. Nov 22nd, 2024

Anatomy of Frustration – The 2018-2019 Penguins Review: Part Three

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ByThe Other Rick

Apr 25, 2019

If you were expecting me to finish off the song quote I started in my last post, you can be forgiven. It is my part of my idiom. (You should feel sorry for my wife, Michele has to put up with it all the time.) However, no, I am not going to finish off the quote, even though I plan on talking about the Penguins‘ port side.

Why am not finishing the quote, you may ask?

Simple, because if I did go back to that quote, I would have to change it, I would have to paraphrase it to “the left one won’t”.

If there is a weakness to the Penguins’ offense it is on its left flank. Once you get past Jake Guentzel and if you are like me, counting Jared McCann as a Right Wing (RW), then there isn’t much left to see here – move along. No, they weren’t bad enough to prevent the team from accumulating 100 points but the parade of pylons after Guentzel did represent the weak links on their respective lines.

When the Penguins were in the attacking zone, opposing defenses rarely had to worry when the Left Wing (LW) had the puck. The LWs were the millstones on most lines. The only reason that I give this position a C for a regular season grade is Guentzel. Even with Guentzel, in the playoffs, this position was an D-.

Name Regular Season Post-Season
Jake Guentzel A- D-
Zach Aston-Reese C D-
Garrett Wilson C D
Dominik Simon C- D-

Guentzel had the best season to date of his nascent career, He hit the 40 goal mark and topped 70 points ands was a +13 during the regular season. His maturation attracted the attention of opposing defenses causing them to take the same kind of runs at Guentzel usually reserved for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Unfortunately, like the rest of the team, he disappeared in the playoffs. No, I don’t blame him. It is really hard to beat a team that knows exactly what you are going to do, since your own coach can’t adjust the strategy.

The LW with the 2nd most goals among players at that position only had 9 goals compared to Guentzel‘s 40 and he was traded away for Erik Gudbranson (Tanner Pearson). That basic fact is all the evidence needed to illustrate the state of our locals LW.

Zach Aston-Reese checked in after that tied with Dominik Simon with 8 goals. The difference between these 2 players is that Aston-Reese only played 43 games while Simon played 71. Pearson had 9 goals in 44 games before being traded. Also, Aston-Reese‘s Shooting Percentage (S%) was at least respectable at 10.5%. Maybe had Aston-Reese started the season in Pittsburgh rather than in Wilkes Barre Scranton (WBS), the regular season would have been a little better, but by the time the post-season came along, even a roster full of 12 Connor McDavid‘s may not have been able to overcome the Islanders knowing exactly what the Penguins’ Coach’s strategy was. Some of us fans complain about Aston-Reese‘s speed, and granted he is well below Carl Hagelin in that department, but he really didn’t all that slow. The only real problem was Mike Sullivan trying to play him in a top 6 role and Aston-Reese is not suited to that role.

Yes, I give Garret Wilson a better grade than Simon. Wilson didn’t get any time with Crosby. He was deployed in a 4th line role and did his job. He didn’t do anything to move up the depth chart but he did what he was asked to do.

Simon, well, I think everyone here knows what I think. Simon had to be Shakespeare’s inspiration for the title of the play “Much Ado About Nothing” or to paraphrase MacBeth; “Simon’s game is but a shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

When Simon is on the ice his Corsi suggests that there can be firework (55.6% at 5 on 5) but rarely does it result in any goals, especially considering how often Sullivan tried to deploy him with Crosby. Simon only managed 7 goals in his 71 games with a S% of 6.6%.

Now for the Future;

Every years is different. That which worked this year may not work next year. That which didn’t work this year may explode next year. However, it would seem to me that here, on LW is where the Penguins can really upgrade their offense. Out of Guentzel, Aston-Reese, Wilson, Simon, the only one who has a lock on a roster spot come next year for me would be Guentzel.

Wilson is a Free Agent (FA) and I doubt that he will be back.

Unlike some of our readers, I don’t mind Aston – Reese when he is deployed in a role that he can play (bottom 6).

Simon, I am not sorry, in my book, he is gone. He is not cost effective on this roster.

If as Jason Mackey claims, the team is considering trading Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Kris Letang, adding them to the laundry list of players, Sullivan has run out of town, rather than acknowledging that when the number of players ignoring the coach is pretty much the whole team, meaning it is the coach and not the players, I fear our Penguins are going to keep Sullivan. If that is the case, both Aston – Reese and Simon have to go. Sullivan will play his coach’s pet Simon to the detriment of the team. He wants scoring from his top 3 lines, yet Simon is only good for tying up the puck in a frenzy that results in nothing. Furthermore he doesn’t put Aston – Reese in a position to succeed.

Is there help within the organization?

If the goal is team speed, then Adam Johnson is your man. He can flat out fly. He is like Carl Hagelin with better hands. He had 18 goals and 43 points in 67 games down in WBS with a S% of 25%. If the team finds it impossible to trade Malkin and Kessel, then Johnson may be the best candidate to put on their LW. Both Malkin and Kessel were flying when Hagelin was on their line, nothing is for certain, but I would like to see Johnson get a shot there. That may be able to produce more than Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel did last October and that is saying something.

(However, don’t bet on a relative increase in team speed if Sullivan stays as coach, regardless of how young the team gets. The league has adjusted to Sullivan but Sullivan hasn’t re-adjusted. The team looks slow because everyone and an his grandmother knows what they are going to do and they get themselves in a position to stop it. I know I keep repeating this and I will keep on repeating it until this problem is fixed)

I mentioned Kasper Björkqvist and Filip Hållander in my last post, both of these players could upgrade the Penguins’ LW or at least break even.

Outside the organization?

I have mentioned this name many times, if the team could clear cap space fast Artemi Panarin would be my first FA choice. Unfortunately, I have heard rumors to the affect that Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky are pretty much signed, sealed, and delivered to Joel Quenneville and the Florida Panthers.

Jeff Skinner is also a FA and was linked to the Penguins in trade rumors in the past. He wouldn’t be my first pick in the FA market but looking at the weakness on the Penguins’ port side and at 26 he is young and noted for his skating. Since Panarin is pretty much off of the board, if Cap space is freed up, this may be another good choice.

Michael Ferland is another FA that was linked to Penguin trade rumors and he should even be a more reasonable Cap target. My guess is that several of our readers would love to get Ferland‘s sand on our milquetoast team.

Outside of the NHL?

I never limit myself to NHL players when looking to upgrade. It is a crap shoot to say the least to predict if a European’s game translates into the NHL, but sometimes you may find a good one and I am not averse to rolling the dice. Truth be told, I didn’t see any LW FAs in Europe that looked like future stars to me.

However, considering how weak our Penguins are at that position I wouldn’t rule out looking at Joakim Nygård. He is 26 years old, 6’0″ tall and 179 lbs. From what I gather he is also fast with good hands and creativity. He scored 21 goals and had 14 assists in 52 games for Färjestad BK of the SHL. I am not sure if he has signed a new contract yet or not.

I may also take a look at Jakob Lilja. From what I have seen and read, he may not have the same offensive upside as Nygård but again, the Penguins cupboard isn’t all that stocked on the left flank. Lilja is 25 years old and 194 lbs. He had 12 goals and 25 assists in 52 games playing for Djurgårdens IF of the SHL.

That is just my 2 cents about our beloved Penguins’ Left Wings.

11 thoughts on “Anatomy of Frustration – The 2018-2019 Penguins Review: Part Three”
  1. Hey TOR,

    Good Stuff. Hopefully your Panthers rumor is wrong. Would love Panarin, he would be fantastic for Malkin.

    Confused about your Simon not being cost effective??? His $750,000 salary next year puts him at $23,000 per point I believe he’s 1/3 the cost of the next closest Penguins Player. Easily the most cost effective player on the team.

    I know he’s being used wrong and should be a 3/4th line winger. He hustles, as you said has a great corsi. Excellent for the checking line. Checking lines with speed have been the thing since Sullivan introduced it. Cycling, tiring out the other teams defense is more important than throwing a check.

    I bring back Reese also. He has decent speed and grit, had a tough season after Wilson’s hit, but he’ll be back next year. Start him on the 3/4th line and see how he progresses.

    Trading Malkin would be a huge mistake. Get rid of Kessel and you’ve solved the Malkin problem.

    1. Hey Phil,

      I thought I replied to this comment a while back. I am not sure what happened.
      Sorry about the confusion – poor word choice on my part, when I was talking about cost effective I was thinking in terms of G/60min.

      Corsi-wise Simon was a stud. If you look at his with-you-without-you charts he dragged most other players into what they call the fun zone. I am not sure if you have ever really looked at their charts but they chart Corsi in terms of Shots Attempts For and Against along an X-Y axis in such a way that it splits the data into 4 categories the bottom left being bad, the top left being boring, the top right being good and the bottom right being fun.

      However, as I wrote, all of those shot attempts were to me anyway nothing more than sound and fury signifying nothing.

      I don’t have anything against Aston Reese like you I could see him in a 3/4th line role but I do see some room for upgrade. His speed isn’t as bad as some make it out to be and he has that toughness to play through penalties.

      I agree Malkin has to stay. You need 2 number 1 centers. The Center Position is that important. The only way you trade Malkin is if you want to reboot the team completely and start from scratch.

  2. Nice article too..

    Matt Murray should be on the trade list that give Penguins significant open cap space.. . Get a veteran cheap goalie like Marezk, Mchinney and look at other goalies.. Use DeSmith more or Give Jarry the ropes at back up..
    I do not want to pay mUrray over 4 -8 million dollars.. It would be a mistake.. imo Murray is too hot and cold. Very average and injury prone.. Very shaky, off angles, make himself small and not confident to stand on his head..

    He can’t be someone like Bishop, Rinne, Price, Grabeur, John Gibson in the league.. It’s time to move one..
    I believe DeSmith should have play game 3 and 4 ..

    Murray isn’t that guy ( will never be that) and cannot get Penguins over the hump in the 3-5 years Crosby and Malkin has left..
    He’s going back and don’t take over games etc.. Penguins missing Coach Bales.. Congrats to him and Canes..
    I prefer to Jarry get his chance and go from there..

    Penguins Goaltending and Defense needs to be significantly improvement.. Big issues and teams weakness..

  3. Hello ,

    I am enjoy a big birthday day family member celebration on a nice place out the country..

    I will give my finally thoughts on your last part of your 2018-2019 season articles..

    I will say this . I will keep speaking in existence and hope it becomes a turning point to help make Penguins better..

    I thought to give Rutherford another chance due to organization giving him new extension..and I starting to change my mind more and more.. He’s make himself look more bad and has no accountability with constant defending Sullivan while blaming players ..

    I believe and really want Sullivan , Reechi and Rutherford fired.. I want Letang to be traded. I don’t think Pens should traded Kessel who is their only elite RW that they have done everything he needs to help this team while significantly showcasing durability among other things..

    All I know Letang is a strong candidate to be traded ..
    I will continue to bring light that starting trading Rust, Letang , Johnson will help Penguins a lot to clearly cap space and not go after more dimensional players with big significant signing..

    Defense core needs to be cater to.. Penguins Breakouts with Defensemen needs to be defense skating out puck to be peeling off fowards when they skating to get puck instead on waiting with stupid passes..

    I would go after Defensemen Trouba, Myers, Faulk, Pesce.. you sign and get them at 5-6 million time 4-5 years.. Maybe Karlsson.. I doubt that Panarin, Skinner , Ferland , Karlsson will be sign here.. I wouldn’t give them over 8- 11 million dollars a year.. I would love them I think we need to be realistic and Penguins organization needs come together with plan that help now and towards the future.. Penguins WBS is really weak and cap space needs to be smartly use esp how Rutherford wasted 4-5 million on bad defenseman like Johnson

    People can sit here ( in general) makes excuses for Letang and go after Malkin and Kessel is ridiculous.. I rather keep Kessel til his contracts ends and Malkin til he’s wants to retires.

    Kessel has showed his capabilities to be strong candidate to be part of this core than Letang has … It will become a hard blow to Malkin and Crosby.. Look at the effective at Hagelin trade .. I would rather take him back at a great 2 million x 2-3 years.. Rutherford trade him just to trade him..

    There’s no right winger out that can get pay and want 6.8 million contract to bring something to the table unique like him.. it can be replaced like Letang can be replaced

    Lastly——— in this organization Stars that have put this team on their back, up and down with no significant supporting and did everything they can to win games to get hard trophy deserves more respect.. .to the fans too..

    Mario needs to get involved and shut it down.. I can’t take Gm that don’t take accountability and praised a coach with two bad seasons of below average coaching results..

    I explained several times what has been going on.. tip of the iceberg with Tocchet’s departure.. Sullivan been lost the room and players are tiring him and Reechi..

    I don’t care . Malkin has every right to be frustrated and tired of the current roster with below average coach that can’t get it right nor provides consistency to two top lines that should be one of the most premier lines in the league..
    Sullivan kept deploying Jack Johnson with him.. Even Crosby was tired Jack Johnson playing with him..

    I am not surprised from what I’ve seen and what I know within the organization that was told to me .. I won’t give people’s name or player’s name .. it’s nothing knew.. it’s has been going on since last end of this cup with 2017-2018 season..
    All I know main players are tired of Sullivan, Reechi and player that is Letang..

    I hate players can’t speak up for themselves without being dehumanized and no one step up for them. Nhl Coaches have short shelf lives for a reason.. Duper try to step for them.. Nhl elite stars are not stupid and are very human to get better through this organization..

    1. Hi Dee,

      Good to hear from you. Enjoy the holiday my friend!!!

      Like you I am fed up. However, I would give JR 1 last chance to do the right thing. I would give him 2 more weeks to find new coach, acknowledge his and Sullivan’s contribution to this post-season’s disaster, and fire Sullivan. Since he and Sullivan public blamed the players, he would have to make his failure acknowledgement public. If JR fails at that then he would be gone and Guerin would have the helm.

      In will hold off my thoughts on the Penguins D until I go through them thoroughly but you will notice I make no argument about Letang.

      Apparently you have deeper insight into the inner-circle than me, but I don’t doubt what you say. Even if you didn’t hint at a rift between players and coach the evidence is huge and hard to ignore and still be honest. That is why I get more than a little miffed when I read some of the tripe the media tries to spin to deflect the blame to the players – it never makes any logical sense yet it still spews out.

      1. Hey TOr,

        Well I got a text suggesting that media is spewing things for click bait and gave me some bizarre paragraphs that were in click bait articles..

        Another text that Penguins organization are evaluating heavily looking at goaltending and defense.. They are pissed not being able to having that coming back from the playoffs..

        Maybe I’m just fast to stop another chance because he deflected to the players in his face press conference..

        I was wondering if he simply doesn’t have a plan and throw players out the wolves in that press interview on clean out day.. I got the feeling he’s ok with goaltending and defense unit.. especially Jack Johnson..

        Strong possibility he could be firing him and will let his plans know around probably June and July ..
        I will want til all of your final articles.. I believe Penguins are not in declining and still have the means to get it right and that everything will come from the horse mouth during free agency..

        I do agree Pens LW is weak after Guentzel and Adam Johnson..

        Ashton Resse.. I think he has a place somewhere on another team. He needs to get faster and do better.. He seem to be ok if he getting to throw hits that gets him out position.. It’s not his fault how Sullivan play him. I don’t mind him being a fourth line plug for injuries.. he has nothing that stands and take this team to another level.. He can’t stand the rigors of this league and seems to be lost all the time beyond comfortable to do nothing..
        Nothing has changed in his game and he had a poor training and hockey season..He did have ok moments here and there..
        His skating, passing, hands, finish and overall game is weak..

        He never earned his spot on the team and Adam Johnson was high than him on the depth chart and training camp.. Adam Johnson is a projected top 6 foward and he gave spark to the fourth line to get promoted to 2nd and 3rd line..
        Let him walk and sign another college speed LW..
        Players like Resse and Simon gotta go due to the fact that they bring nothing and overall how Sullivan overall use them when they do not earn it..

        Agree with players you suggest from Khl to college..
        Enjoy the games tonight..

  4. Hey Other Rick,

    Fantastic work, as always. I’ll toss another name into the mix…Sam Miletic.

    Although his first pro season was interrupted by injury, Miletic was productive when he played to the tune of 12 goals and 35 points in 49 games for the Baby Pens. Projects to roughly 19 goals and 54 points over a full 76-game AHL season. He was a plus-14, too.

    From what I can glean from scouting reports, he’s crafty and plays well around the net. Decent size (6-1 196). However, skating might be an issue.

    Still, the kid showed some scoring pedigree in junior and might be worth a look.

    Rick

    1. Hey Rick,

      I don’t know why I overlooked that player. Maybe because of his injury he dropped below my radar but you are right, Miletic should be given a full chance to make the team. The bulk of that left side is questionable.

    2. Hey tOR, and Rick,

      Yes. I’m a Miletic fan. He was my surprise pick in 2017 camp. He stood out, especially in front of the net. Good hands. Good stick. I didn’t think his skating was an issue, but I haven’t seen him much in game situations. Not sure about his defensive side, though. That’s hard to judge in camp.

      I’ll be pulling for him again this coming year and hope he stays healthy. He’s probably as good as anyone we currently have on the fourth line. However, at 6’1”, 195, Sully might think he’s too big for a winger.

      Okay. Yeah. That’s sarcasm (sort of).

      — 55

      1. Hey 55,

        The sad part is, you are being sarcastic but you are kind-a-sort-a on target. When assessing players and talent and speed are statistically equal, Sullivan seems to always choose the smallest, softest on the puck option.

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