Google defines sexy as exciting, stimulating, interesting, appealing, intriguing.
How I wish it were true of the Penguins upcoming first-round matchup with the New York Islanders. Then we’d be assured our competitive juices would flow and we’d be fully engaged.
Unfortunately, the series with the Islanders promises to be about as thrilling as going out on a date with your Aunt Betty perched in the back seat of the car. Heck, even the NHL schedule-makers thought so. They slated all four of this season’s games with the Islanders back in 2018, figuring they’d be of little interest and have little bearing on the Metropolitan Division race.
How wrong they were.
I agree with my esteemed colleague, Other Rick, on many counts. On paper, the Pens are the better team. However, as we know all too well, ‘on paper’ doesn’t always translate into results. Especially when the chase for Lord Stanley’s coveted silver chalice begins.
As a team, you need to bring your ‘A’ game…or a reasonable facsimile…every night. While the Pens have made significant strides in that regard, especially since adding Nick Bjugstad, Erik Gudbranson and Jared McCann and giving significant ice time to kids like Teddy Blueger, they’ve betrayed disturbing signs of a letup in recent games. Something our guys can ill afford against the Islanders.
There’s an old boxing adage…styles make fights. It very much applies to this series. While the black and gold generally embrace a run-and-gun style, Islanders coach Barry Trotz, fresh off a Stanley Cup with Washington, installed a disciplined defensive system and authored a stunning worst-to-best transformation in goals against. New York goalies Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss, journeymen both, combined for a .928 save percentage and 11 shutouts. The Isles jumped 23 points to snag second in the Metro.
I worry about our insistence on making plays at the opposing blue line, which feeds right into our foe’s defensive wheelhouse. The Pens tried this approach against Washington last spring with diminishing returns, while springing the Caps’ forwards loose for quick counterstrikes off of turnovers. I still have nightmares about Jakub Vrana and Evgeny Kuznetsov racing in on Matt Murray unimpeded, to say nothing of Alex Ovechkin.
I’m especially concerned when Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel hit the ice. A dynamic duo they may be (154 points combined), but they also were a collective minus-44. Given Malkin’s insistence on carrying the puck into the offensive zone and making blind drop passes? Trotz and his boys must be licking their chops. A disaster waiting to happen.
A potential remedy? I liked the look of Kessel skating with Blueger and McCann during Malkin’s recent absence. Kind of a modified HBK Line. However, I prefer McCann with Sidney Crosby. Such a move would also disrupt the third line of Bjugstad, Patric Hornqvist and Dominik Simon, which displayed decent chemistry. For the record, I’m not wedded to the latter and would like to see Blueger hold a spot ahead of him.
The bottom line? We can’t play it fast and loose against these guys. If we do, they’ll burn us.
I have other concerns as well. The Islanders aren’t goony tough, but they’re big and physical and they’re very effective along the wall and in traffic, where we’re comparatively weak. If we can’t win puck battles on a reasonably consistent basis, we can’t win games.
All of this can be alleviated to an extent if the Pens pay attention to detail and play smart, which they’ve done more frequently in recent weeks. Don’t try to force plays (Geno) at the Islanders’ blue line that aren’t there. Dump the puck in, as coach Mike Sullivan has preached while prepping his troops for the series. Be patient and wait for opportunities.
Dazzling numbers aside, neither Lehner nor Greiss are the second coming of Georges Vezina. The Pens enjoy a huge edge in top-end talent. Despite recent difficulties, guys like Crosby, Kessel and Malkin know how to finish when they have a goalie at their mercy. So does 40-goal man Jake Guentzel, already a storied playoff performer at a ripe, young age. Guys like Hornqvist and Bryan Rust have proven postseason track records, too.
At the far end of the ice, Murray has quietly regained his Cup-winning form. If Sullivan can resist the understandable but misguided urge to force Olli Maatta into the lineup at the expense of Gudbranson when everyone’s healthy, I don’t have any huge worries about our defense.
Hunger is a key, too. I’m hoping with all the new additions, we’ve got some fire back in our collective bellies. Can’t win without it.
My predication? I’ll gaze into the future by observing the past. After winning back-to-back Cups in the early 1990s, the Pens were knocked out in the second round the following spring by the Islanders. Poised to bounce back in 1994, they instead endured a shocking first-round upset at the hands of the Capitals, who employed the unusual practice of rotating goalies.
Sound eerily familiar?
I think we’ll break with tradition. Can the Penguins beat the Islanders? Yes. In six games.
Of course
Rick – nice job – hope your well.
I’m with you on this one – this is a series where our Forwards need to back
check and remain opportunistic on the offensive end of the rink.
One of the reason’s why I worry about Letang – I don’t think he can control
himself – he loves to roam around the ice out of position.
Also, I agree 100% on Maatta – I would only play him if theirs an injury to one
of our top six. Gudbranson & Johnson are must line-up guys in the playoffs.
I fear like you Sully may sit one or the other to find a spot for Maatta – If this
transpires look for Anders Lee to have a field day in front of Murray.
Last but not least please plug Blueger in for Simon. Simon couldn’t score
on you or I in goal.
Rick,
Great stuff except I have a huge problem with the Maatta/Gudbranson part. You are saying that Sullivan should play Gudbranson who has a total of 13 playoff games in his career since 2012 and is a -4 0 points over Maatta who leads the Penguins in playoff minutes since he came into the league I think the year after Gudbranson, and Maatta has the best +/- in the NHL playoffs since then other than Duncan Keith who is considered probably the best playoff defensemen.
Dumoulin is a game time decision, but didn’t skate today. Also there seems to be a feeling going around that if Dumo plays Jack Johnson is the odd guy out if you can believe it. Sullivan doesn’t pull punches come playoff time.
I really think the series is going to come down to special teams and goaltending. The Penguins are going to have to be able to draw penalties against a Trotz’s team who as you know can be very stingy in that regard in the playoffs.
Matt Murray has looked horrible against the Islanders this season. Four goals on nine shots was his worst game of the season. They are not afraid of him. Hopefully he HAS turned his game around and playoff Murray shows up. I truly think he will, some players just do that. The Isles are going to come out fast and hard and Murray needs to weather the storm.
1st goal is huge.
The only way the Penguins lose is if just like in the 90’s they come out and believe they are going to win just because they look better on paper. They also have to be able to finish the series. Don’t let the Isles hang around.
Prediction: Pens in 5 losing only the third game.
Phil
On Maatta – I respectfully agree with Rick. The problem with the construction by
JR to form a team he overlooked the importance of having a physical presence come playoff time. If the Pen’s could rely on any toughness from their forwards
I may agree with you. Even with Gudbranson and Johnson we still come up short in the grit/toughness department.
If you go with Maatta the Islanders will have a field day sitting on Murray’s lap
the entire series – I for one don’t want to watch that happen.
I used to be a Maatta fan but its obvious he’s lost a step or two and that’s a
generous evaluation. He’s a finesse D-Man and we need toughness. To me
its a no brainer.
Hey Mike and Phil,
I’m going to do a solo response to you guys. Great, of course, to hear from you and read your thoughts… 🙂
I’m going to sound like I’m speaking with forked tongue (ugh) or out of two sides of my mouth. I really don’t mind Olli Maatta. In fact, truth be told, I like him. Yes, he lacks speed and he’s not a bruiser. But he reads the play well, makes nice passes and will at least put himself in harm’s way.
I just wouldn’t sit Gudbranson to make room for him. No way. Against a fairly large Islanders team that’s going to grind on us, in my mind we must play Gudbranson. Otherwise, it defeats the purpose for acquiring him in the first place.
I’m with Mike on the importance of a physical presence in front of the net. One of my enduring memories of Maatta this season was him getting absolutely leveled in the crease while all the other Pens stood around and pretended not to notice.
We don’t need that kind of juju against horses likes Anders Lee (231 pounds) and Brock Nelson (212). At least not at Gudbranson’s expense.
As I’ve mentioned in prior comments, I would consider playing Maatta in place of Pettersson. I think he’s more solid and bomb-proof, as opposed to the rookie (who I also like) who seems to get a little rattled at times under pressure.
However, on the flip side, I like the ice Pettersson covers and the way he uses his reach, not to mention the fact that he and Gudbranson seem to have pretty good chemistry and make an effective tandem. The playoffs would be a lousy time to break in a brand new, never-tried-before defensive pairing.
I might consider sitting Johnson, but again I’m going to side with Mike. I like JJ’s shot blocking and physical play (and outlet passing). Unless he really messes up, I play him ahead of Maatta for now.
This could all be moot. Not to jinx us, but injuries do occur in the playoffs. I’m sure we’ll need Olli before all is said and done.
Rick
Hey guys,
I’m going to go for the twofer comment also. I watch Maatta non stop cleaning guys out from in front of the net. That’s why his plus minus is the best. He is non stop cross checking guys out of shooting lanes. I haven’t seen a change in Maatta’s speed, not fast, but not a slow as everyone thinks.
Johnson blocks shots, but it is usually because he has messed up. Watch close how he constantly loses the puck in his feet when there is any pressure on him. Maatta’s greatest ability is his ability to get the puck out of the zone throwing a clean pass.
Gudbranson I have liked so far, hopefully he is good under playoff pressure. I haven’t seen a big flaw in his game. His -4 playoff numbers aren’t horrible considering the teams he was on.
Couple guys from the PG and 97 the fan are claiming if Dumo plays Johnson is out.
This is all a great problem for a team to have!
I can’t wait! Go Pens.
Good points, Phil.
I know you go to a lot of games and you have an opportunity to see things all over the ice.
I think Maatta does a decent job of mitigating his heavy feet. It mostly manifests when he has to turn suddenly…he just can’t get up to speed. Again, he’s pretty good about avoiding those situations.
And I do agree…he does get in the way. He just doesn’t do it in a sexy manner. Back to the original thrust of my article … 🙂
Agree that too many defensemen is a nice problem to have.
GO PENZ!
Rick
Phil & Rick
I think last night confirmed my worst fears with Maata. It actually threw me for a loop when after the first period both Maata and Petterrson openly pulled up to allow one of the Isles players to go in first for the puck. These are Pro players we’re talking about.
Phil to your point on JJ – the majority of the time when a player is giving up his body to block a shot he’s rotating or recovering from being out of position – Its a desperation move.
Personally I get Johnson back in the line up asap. We need his physicality vs the Islanders. I have no problem with inserting Maata back in the line up against finesse teams when the poke check is a more effective weapon. This series requires us to be physical.
Game #2 is huge – we drop this one and the Isles confidence sky rockets. We have to send them a message. Pen’s 4 Isles 0
Yes they can go pens🐧🐧🐧🐧🏒💛🖤