Decision Time for the Penguins

We are coming down to the wire. There are only hours before the last Preseason game. Soon after that our Pittsburgh Penguins need to sort out their season opening roster. There are still 2 questions to be answered; what to do about 3 waivers exempt Goalies and a $331,625 overage on the Cap.

So, as a last bit of fun before the season starts, let’s play arm-chair GM.
(The only way we have to be worried is if we are wrong and the organization thinks like we do, otherwise no one will ever know if our ideas would have worked or would have better or worse than what the team did)

The Goalies

Matt Murray is the undisputed starter. The only question that remains is how many games will he play? Thus may not really be a discussion of injury but of team strategy managing his minutes. In the past, our Penguins really didn’t have a Defenseman capable of physically protecting our goalies. Kris Letang may have been the most physical Defenseman on the squad despite his lack of size. All of the rest of the Defensemen play a lot smaller of a game than their physical stature would suggest.

(Yes, I am giving Letang some credit here. My only problem – and it is a big one – is that he doesn’t know how to play defense. I will never argue against his offensive skills, skating ability, or heart.)

With Erik Gudbranson on the team, I do wonder if there will be less liberties taken on Penguins’ Goalies. Therefore, managing minutes may not be as critical as some have suggested, but that is something that we will have to wait and see.

Once past Murray, now the team has a decision, do they keep Casey DeSmith or Tristan Jarry? Or maybe go with all 3?

DeSmith is the older of the 2 and seems to have the better demeanor to be the back-up. Perhaps his age and the fight he had to make it to the NHL have given him the perspective and experience to work through the off time and be able to off of the bench to give a break to, relieve, or plug in during bumps and bruises when called upon. He does cost more, $1.25 million to $675,000, almost twice as much, enough to get them over the Cap problem if he is traded for prospects but the difference is so small that it may be a good insurance policy to know there is a guy who can come in on a moment’s notice and play solid and not wait until he has a game or 2 under his belt.

Jarry is younger, cheaper and may have the better upside. Considering that Murray will be a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) next season, Jarry may not be the best short term insurance policy, but he may be the better long term back-up, if the team needs to start the season without Murray next year while they haggle of money.

Of course, GM Jim Rutherford has hinted at keeping all 3 on the roster to start the season but that means the team will only be able to keep 2 skaters at most on the roster and just shift the discussion from which goalie gets exposed to some other position.

If an opposing team is looking for a goalie, they may want to risk seeing if the Penguins expose 1 of these 2 players to waivers and then claim him. So, if I couldn’t get exactly the right deal, one in which I could either unload a bad contract as part of the trade (ie Jack Johnson) or I get real value, in terms of prospects, I would start the season with 3 goalies and shift my discussion to a different area. I would rather risk sneaking a Chad Ruhwedel or Dominik Simon through waivers than a goalie.

(Any other arm-chair GMs out there want to weigh in, or is it still too early)

Cap Compliance

Well, at least our Penguins aren’t the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto has to shed over $13 million. In fact, the Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals, Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Arizona Coyotes, St. Louis Blues, and Carolina Hurricanes are all in worse shape than the Penguins when it comes to projected Cap space

Team	Projected Used	Projected Space
Toronto Maple Leafs	$94,865,199	0
Vancouver Canucks	$83,216,539	0
Washington Capitals	$82,864,294	0
Buffalo Sabres	$82,559,524	0
Calgary Flames	$82,158,375	0
Arizona Coyotes	$82,131,068	0
St. Louis Blues	$82,111,260	0
Carolina Hurricanes	$81,998,124	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	$81,831,625	0
New York Rangers	$81,264,799	$235,201
Minnesota Wild	$80,625,255	$874,745
Dallas Stars	$80,529,999	$970,001
Boston Bruins	$80,346,666	$1,153,334
Nashville Predators	$80,165,476	$1,334,524
Florida Panther	$80,018,669	$1,481,331
Edmonton Oilers	$79,966,999	$1,533,001
Tampa Bay Lightning	$79,773,331	$1,726,669
Vegas Golden Knights	$79,724,999	$1,775,001
Philadelphia Flyers	$79,632,579	$1,867,421
Chicago Blackhawks	$79,037,586	$2,462,414
San Jose Sharks	$78,817,417	$2,682,583
Detroit Red Wings	$77,229,543	$4,270,457
New York Islanders	$76,846,666	$4,653,334
Los Angeles Kings	$76,259,394	$5,240,606
Montreal Canadiens	$75,093,809	$6,406,191
New Jersey Devils	$75,038,333	$6,461,667
Anaheim Ducks	$72,249,758	$9,250,242
Ottawa Senators	$69,684,999	$11,815,001
Columbus Blue Jackets	$68,409,957	$13,090,043
Winnipeg Jets	$66,640,831	$14,859,169
Colorado Avalanche	$65,884,761	$15,615,239
* Taken from Capfriendly

With the Cap compliance deadline looming, rumors and suggestions are starting to catch fire as to how our boys-of-winter get in under the Cap. At one point or another I have read discussions about Jack Johnson, Bryan Rust, and Nick Bjugstad either truly being on the block or Rutherford willing to listen to offers.

I am not sure how many tears would be shed in Penguindom should Rutherford pull off a Johnson trade, but don’t count on it. As I wrote in my previous post, I find it hard to believe any team out there will want to take on Johnson’s contract unless the team sweetens the deal with a goalie and or another player.

Colorado has the most Cap space to absorb Johnson’s contract, but with Ian Cole and Nikita Zadorov on their port-side of Defense there is no need and with the way the Avalanche handled the Matt Duchene trade I doubt they would be dumb enough to deal with.

Winnipeg? Hmm.. They do have Cap space. Looking at their Left Handed Defensemen (LHD); Dmitry Kulikov, Joshua Morrisey, Nathan Beaulieu, and Anthony Bitetto, Johnson may not be that far off any but Morrisey if Rutherford packages Bjugstad or Rust. I still would rather trade Simon but I can’t picture Simon in a Jets uniform and I don’t see them biting on a Johnson – Jarry trade either.

I could see Bjugstad in Winnipeg, but now asking the Jets to take on $7.35 million may be a little high, so now I would have to see who I would take/they would want me to take in exchange.

Anaheim? They only have 6 Defenseman on their roster. How about Johnson and Ruhwedel for Michael Del Zotto? Do you think they would go for that? I am not all that excited about Del Zotto, but getting rid of the contract looks good to me.

Just thinking out loud here.

Montreal? I have heard rumblings that Montreal is not happy with Jonathan Drouin and that the New York Islanders were inquiring about the Centers availability. How about a package deal where the Penguins package Jarry – Johnson – Bjugstad for Drouin and probably someone else? I would think that Jarry would represent an upgrade over Kieth Kinkaid in goal.

So that is my arm-chair GMing for today?

This evening the Sabres

Go Penguins!!!!