Early in 1967, iconic recording duo Sonny and Cher released The Beat Goes On, a pop classic that rose to No. 6 on the Billboard Hot 100. For some reason the catchy tune (“lawdy dawdy dee, lawdy dawdy dah”) reminds me very much of our Pittsburgh Penguins, present vintage.
Last night the black and gold overcame a 1-0 deficit in Calgary, no easy place to play because of the altitude (3428 feet above sea level) and opponent, to grind out a methodical 4-1 win. In the process, dousing the piping hot Flames (7-1 in their last eight games) with a bucket of ice water.
The Pens out-hit their hosts, won 52 percent of the draws and, following a typically sluggish start, came on like gangbusters to rack up a 27-17 edge in shots on goal over the final 40 minutes.
Ho hum. Same old story. Just another day at the office, right?
Wrong.
There’s a whole lot of extraordinary wrapped up in all that ordinary. Tristan Jarry continued his meteoric rise to the head of the NHL goaltending class, stopping 33 shots to earn No. 1 star of the game. Making like a firewall, he stoned Milan Lucic on a 2-on-(oh dear Lord!) break with 2:20 left in the second period to literally halt the Flames in their tracks.
Since taking over the goaltending reins from a faltering Matt Murray a month ago he’s been nothing short of sensational. The Surrey, BC, native’s posted a sterling 9-2 record with a 1.72 goals against average and a .942 save percentage.
Let those numbers sink in for a moment.
It’s fair to say, “As Jarry Goes So Go the Pens.” Or “In Tristan We Trust.” Fitting slogans both.
Number 35’s not the only one to shine. The newly formed top line of Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust continues to burn up the ice. Following a two-game absence and bout with the flu, “Geno” celebrated his return to the lineup in grand style, notching his 400th career NHL goal and two assists.
Not to keep spouting statistics, but Malkin’s bear repeating…five goals and 15 points in his last eight games! So do the rest of the unit’s, for that matter. Despite a rare pointless outing, Guentzel was a plus-three for the night. He has eight goals and 22 points in his past 15 contests. And Rust continues his stunning transformation from grinder to scorer, potting his fifth goal in his last eight games and eighth in his past 11.
Look out Rocket Richard. Here’s comes Rusty.
There were heroes aplenty on the back-end as well. Skating nearly the whole game with Justin Schultz down (and apparently out again) the Pens ‘d’ proved its collective mettle. Love him or hate him, Kris Letang thrives with a heavy workload and last night was no exception. “Tanger” tallied a goal and an assist in 27:54 of ice time. He’s got four goals and 12 points in his last 10 games.
And what can you say about John Marino? My word, has this kid been a Godsend and a revelation. All of his production (four goals and 15 points) have come in the last 23 games…an impressive clip for anyone let alone a rookie out of Harvard who was acquired for a conditional sixth-round pick.
Perhaps not by coincidence, the Pens’ present hot streak coincides neatly with Marino’s stunning emergence. They’ve gone 14-5-4 during that span and 10-4-3 sans captain Sidney Crosby. Oh, a little good news on the injury front…Sid’s been skating for the past week as he recovers from abdominal wall surgery.
Are the Pens a perfect team as presently constructed?
No. They’re relying a little too heavily on Jarry and the Malkin line for my taste. In particular, secondary scorers like Dominik Kahun, Jared McCann and snake-bitten (or spider-bitten) Alex Galchenyuk need to dial it up a notch. To say nothing of grinder Zach Aston-Reese and Mike Sullivan favorite Dominik Simon, who’s literally fallen off the planet of late (four assists, minus-10 in his past 21 games).
For now, I’ll take the points any way I can get ‘em…and gladly. Especially considering how banged up we are.
In the meantime? The Penguins beat goes on.
Awesome win!
Hey Rick,
A win is a win, especially on the road. Fortunately for our black and gold, Dube past up the shot on that 2 on 0 and kept feeding it back to Lucic all the way in until he had nothing at which to shoot. Not only did Dube who, in a small sample size, is shooting 20%, but he waitingf way too long and passed it to a guy shooting 6.3%. This is one to smile and be thankful.
I hear what you are saying about 2ndary scoring and I will agree that recently it almost appears that Malkin – Rust – Guentzel are carrying the team, but McCann, Marino, Letang, and Kahun haven’t exactly been a buch of Simons.
Looking over the last 21 games (because you looked at the Penguins answer to Mario Mendoza over that stretch) . Unlike the Pens ersatz LW, 0fer Simon, McCann has put up 5 Gs and 9As, Marino 4 Gs and 10As (and he is a rookie), Letang 4Gs and 9As, and Kahun 6 Gs and 6 As.
They may not be lighting the lamp like true 2nd line players, but when or if Crosby and Hrnqvist can get back while those players stay healthy, that starts to look pretty darn good and may work to potentiate each other, stgraining limited defenses of opponents – pick your poison.
Speaking of Simon (as you were), what makes things worse about this slump is that he is still get fairly quality ice time. His 14:05 may be 9th among forwards but is not all that significantly different than any but the top 3 players (Malkin, Guentzel, Rust) and his 13:09 Ev TOI checks in as a top 6 winger. A player who has no goals and is a -10 over the last 21 games is not only still in uniform but on the ice.
Hey Rick,
Great stuff. I agree they are relying too much on the big 4 – Jarry, Rust, Malkin and Guentzel.
Is it me or have there been 5 or more games where the Penguins lose one of their defensemen in the first two minutes of a game. Jarry had an incredible first period.
I was laughing at all of the headlines about Malkin’s empty netter and not one about Jarry’s incredible game. Ah well, you got it right!
I know people hate Simon and I know he was a -1 last night, but it seemed like he played 25 minutes even though he only played 12 some. He was on a constant fore-check in the 2nd and 3rd period that really seemed to wear down the Flames. If not that, it kept them out of the Pens zone.
I would like to see Simon back with Blueger and Aston-Reese. Even though they don’t score, their non-stop cycling has worn down other teams defense for the rest of the team. I call them the BARS line lol.
Maybe Phil, but Simon finished with a CORSI of 12CF and 16CA for a 42.86%, including the games only GA. His O-Zone starts were 2, his D-Zone Starts were 2, and his N-zone starts were 2, while 10 starts were on the fly. So, he had to be very inept in his own zone if he only started twice in his own zone but yielded 16 Shot Attempts against.
If Sully kept him on the 4th line with Blueger and Aston-Reese I may not complain too much about him, but to paraphrase sandlot, he is killing me Smalls.
Not only was the 16 CA against equal to over 60 per 60 minutes, but the 12 that actually made it through to the net were worst among the forwards last night.
I can’t imagine his toi in the O-zone could hav ebeen all that much.
Hey Guys,
Never once looked or cared about a Corsi stat, I watch all the games and form my opinions from that. The guy spent a ton of time fore checking while the other guys on his line where laying back tired. A lot of the team looked sluggish.
I’m not a fan of Simon on either of the top two lines, and prefer him on the 4th, but for league minimum I think he is great.
Sorry Phil,
I recall you touting Simon via his CORSI numbers when many people questioned his scoring touch or lack there of, so you must have looked at CORSI at some time.
I also am not a fan of the subjective eye test, as I once paraphrased a Rush tune, it is “an once of perception and a pound of obscure”. The reality of human memory is that it only tends to remember what it wants to remember and not what actually happened. It is very plastic and good Lawyers exploit that weakness either planting false memories in witnesses minds or getting them to question their own testimony.
My whole point above is that it would have been physically impossible for Simon to have been a forechecking demon in the 12 min and 22 seconds of TOI he played the other night while ceding 16 shot attempts against, particularly when he only had 2 defensive zone starts.
Had Simon been the tireless dynamo that your memory suggests all 16 shot attempts would have had to occur in a very brief period. He averaged roughly 1 Shot Attempt Against per shift but the Shot Attempts for per shift was a fair amount lower.
The chances are far higher that Simon was unable to hold the puck in Calgary territory for too extended of a period of time, with 2 O-zone starts, 2 N-zone starts and 11 starts on the fly, while only starting twice defending his own zone.
Add to that the fact that the only stats attributed to Simon in thhe game against Calgary was 1 Shot, 1 Shot Attempt Blocked by a Flames Defender and 1 Offensive Zone Giveaway.
The wrist shot that did make it through to the net was from a decent location -between – the circles, but it was from 36 feet away. Simon’s wrist shot attempt that was blocked was a little outside the slot and from farther away.
I agree, Simon isn’t bad at cycling in the corner but he never seems to be able to get the puck into high danger scoring areas. (It is no wonder that Crosby had a Sports hernia from buoying up that millstone.) Furthermore, it was physically impossible for Simon to have had anything resembling a good game, he spent more time defending his own zone without ever really starting there.
Three years ago, I was all for giving him and a couple other young guys a chance to see what they could do and if I were GM I wouldn’t actively be seeking deals but now that I have seen what Simon has to offer, I am over it. I am sure there is at least 1 player in WBS that can do what he does and more. If he were replaced, I fairly confident that he wouldn’t be missed.
At the very least, Crosby would be at a much lower risk of a recurring hernia.
Wow tOR,
Please don’t LIE about me.
I once said… quote “as you said has a great corsi.” and that was the most I have ever used it. I quoted you.
To go further into what I have said about corsi here is EVERY one of my comments about corsi over the years:
“I don’t give a crap about what any defenseman’s corsi #’s are. Corsi’s don’t win games”
“To tell the truth, other than you telling me Sprong has a good “Corsi” rating I haven’t seen a thing. ”
“I’m not one to follow the Corsi and other stats, ”
That is every one.
Funny part is you had been telling me how great Sprong’s corsi numbers were for years. I told you I watched him and he was lazy and sucked. How did that work out?
I also mentioned in my comment that Simon forechecked. He did not have the puck. He was first in almost every time and slowed Calgary enough for Pittsburgh to set up their defense and forced bad plays out of their zone. I mentioned the Penguins were sluggish. There is a virus going around the Pens locker room and Calgary’s altitude affects players hustle. This was not mentioned in the stats.
I mentioned Simon’s hustle for the people who don’t watch the game and only look at and/or only quote the stats.
Phil,
I will concede for the time being that you may not have said anything positive about CORSI, since I don’t have the time to look back at all of our discussions. If I have created those phantom memories as I have noted above when stating my ambivalence toward the eye test then I am sorry, but then that would illustrate my point about the uselessness of the eye test.
On the flip side, again, Phil, if Simon is the dynamo your eye test suggests; if he did indeed slow down opponents exiting the zone, how did the Flames get roughly 1 shot attempt against the penguins per shift Simon was on the ice, particularly when Simon only started in his own zone twice?
Furthermore, if he was that great of a forechecker, the evidence would be on the stat sheet in the form of hits or hits taken, or takeaways in the offensive zone – there was none. Simply being a pylon for opponents to skate around, particularly when you are less than 6′ tall, doesn’t equal being a great forecheck.
Outside of a medium danger shot on goal, a blocked shot attempt from a medium area danger shot, a give away and a -1, Simon left no footprint on the game. And a giveaway and a -1 are far from a positive game.
Cycling is a teachable skill and there has to be more than 1 player in WBS that can be taught that skill who could contgribute more than a Gv and a -1. I am not pushing for a change, at least right now, but nor will I accept heaping any kudos on Simon for barely showing up. I don’t give out participation trophies.
The Other Rick / Phil
i have to side with Phil on this one and I made this statement last year. “Numbers lie” It tells you
zero about the intangible things that help a team
win.
Way to easy to manipulate the facts to validate
your position. I’m speaking from experience after
working for Professional teams the last 15yrs.
The Other Rick – great example is Jack Johnson.
People who hate him use all his negative numbers
to evaluate him. If you bring up his ability to block
shots the haters say its his way of making up for
a mistake – if you say he has a +10 then they say
that ‘s a horrible stat to evaluate a player.
There are way to many variables to be considered
when evaluating. Going back to my experience with
stats / numbers. Each year prior the the draft we would submit our Top 50 – 60 prospects. Our analytics people had to do the same – it was a joke !!
Not one player in there Top 20 would be drafted.
Phil – I’m not a big Simon guy either – he works hard at both ends but just doesn’t get anything done. He digs on the boards / forechecks but struggles to win any one on one board battles. And we know he’s
definitely not a goal scorer. I do agree he should be on the Pen’s 4th line although I’m not sure he’s the type of player we need. I would like to see someone a little bigger and more physical. A player that can
wear down another teams top players from a physical stand point.
Rick – great article – Jarry has been unbelievable.
Go Pens
Oh I forgot to address you bringing up Sprong again;
Why are you still talking about him?
But since you brought him up – to tell the truth he worked out about as much as Simon is working out.
Sprong 18 Gs in 89 GP, Simon 14Gs in 143 GP. Advantage Sprong
Sprong a -15 in those games Simon a +4
Advantage Simon
Simon 718:46 min (5 on5) with Crosby, 237:31 with Malkin
Sprong 65:52 with Crosby, 5:55 with Malkin
Hmm…..
Well, that changes everything, Simon gets massive time with quality Centers – arguably the best 2 Centers in the league over the last 3 years but scores less goals, maybe we should say serious advantage in Goals for Sprong
and in the +/- dept, well, defensively, even though you say Sprong was lazy, how much of Simons +/- advantage was Crosby? Well we can look that up. While Simon was on the ice with Crosby he was a +15 (45GF – 30GA when on the ice together) so away from Crosby he is a -11.
Still advantage Simon but really not all that much.
When I wanted Sprong and even Simon to get a chance, I really wanted Sheary gone. Sheary wasn’t getting the job done, particularly in the Playoffs.
How did that workout? It was a push. Sheary isn’t doing anything away from Crosby – just like Simon isn’t. Sprong – well he is a head case that gets everyone mad at him. However, it was worth the risk to look at changing. Sheary wasn’t working so try something different.
Hey Mike,
As you say, people can manipulate numbers to prove themselves right, but the numbers themselves do not lie.
Another problem with numbers is that way too many people either over generalize them or in some way just don’t understand their limitations. People I have worked with when working clinically have often commented that if I sat on an editorial board no research would ever get done because of how critical I look at the numbers and look at limitations.
Sorry but it is far to easier to make stuff up when relying on the eye test rather than working to read the numbers and understand what they are truly saying.
In this particular instance – discussing Simon as an example, Simon did not have a good game against Calgary, he really wasn’t forechecking all that hard because it would have been physically impossible for Calgary to get that many Shot Attempts Against. The eye test cannot bend the laws of time. They are not malleable to anything yet known to man.
tOR,
I was only showing my corsi comments, one mentioned Sprong. Sorry.
Your selective stats still give me a good laugh. Didn’t see assists mentioned. Is that because if you include non selfish Simon’s assist numbers that the one advantage you gave to Sprong would be overturned?
I’m not even going to look because I already know that is why you did not include that stat.
Your stats 100% prove my point, actually many of the points I have made, and I thank you for that.
Hockey is way more than just scoring goals my friend. There are actually hundreds of different things players do. Driving to the net, Screening a goalie, sticking up for a injured player, lifting a stick, letting a goalie know which way to move a puck, cycling, I could name a ton. The game is played on the ice, not on the stat sheet.
That is 100% why Sprong cleared waivers and not one team in the NHL claimed him. That is why the 1 dimensional Sprong currently holds the worst +/- on his minor league team and Simon is playing in the NHL. It is that simple.
Phil,
No, not really, hockey is all about scoring, the object of the game is outscoring your opponent. All those little things you talk about, if done right, would contribute to scoring, whether scoring for or preventing scoring against. In Simon’s case they don’t.
Takeout the TOI that Simon was on the ice with Crosby and Simon’s +/- is roughly the same as Sprong’s.
No one took a bit on Sprong when he was waived, you are right. It will never happen, since for what ever reason – insanity or what – Simon would ever get waived, no one would bite on him either.
Last night he did win (Barely) the CORSI race (I know you say you aren’t a fan) but when you subtract out the block shots, Fenwick, he loses the battle again, as well as the SF/SA Percent. Big surprise he wasn’t on the ice for an EV strength goal, once again. He wasn’t on the ice for an EV strength goal against (Thankfully), but he shows his Offensive ineptitude once again.
All of those little things you talk about can be taught, and once again, like when Sheary was here, I say the team wouldn’t really lose a beat if an Adam Johnson or a Sam Miletic would supplant Simon on the team, in the preseason Bjorkqvist and Legare both were better but one was sent to WBS while the other back to his Jr team. Bjorkqvist is injured and even though he may look like he is struggling, I am willing to bet that he would be outplaying him this year.
Next year, only in your mind and maybe Sullivan’s will Simon be able to still be here unless Poulin, Legare, and Bjorkqvist go the route of Bellerive.
Probably the only reason Di Pauli was summoned instead of Johnson or Miletic or even Angello (Who is now scoring again now that Noessen isn’t getting his TOI) is that he is less likely to show up Simon and get the fan base even angrier that Simon is still here.
I really don’t want to argue about changes while the team is winning, I hate talking about changing chemistry. If you argue that, then I am fine with your argument, but please stop it. Reality is that if all of those little things that you and Mike like to try and hide behind are true, eventually they have to find their way onto the stat sheet in some fashion. If you are forechecking, there will eventually be hits in the offensive zone, and limited shots, hits et al in the defensive zone. Eventually they have to lead to goals and improved goal differentials (+/-) otherwise they are delusions, excuses, and enabling devices to justify pathetic players.
Yes, once Crosby gets back and Sully reunites Simon and Sully, Crosby will once again bouy the Millstone up, but that just may kill the “team”.
The Other Rick
Numbers do lie. I’m in agreement with you that a lot of people have
no clue how to gauge each particular stat.
But again the most important stat of all are the intangible ones. This is
something that you can only dissect by having some type of feel
or understanding of the game.
Also, a lot of this is done daily when only a privileged few see the
true value of a player. Your typical fan only see’s what happens on
game day.
Most people that use stats as a reference to evaluate players have
never played a sport. I wish we could have a little contest. I select
my players based on the eye test “I never look at any stat” and you
pick your players based on stats and never see a player play. I
already know the out come.
The Other Rick – You can argue this point all day but I personally
lived thru it.