At the time it seemed like the ultimate no-brainer. On the eve of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, it was a foregone conclusion our Penguins would be far better served to protect budding star Matt Murray over franchise icon and former No. 1 overall pick Marc-Andre Fleury.
After all, the then 23-year-old wonder boy was fresh off backstopping the black and gold to consecutive Stanley Cups…technically while still a rookie.
Murray represented the future…Fleury the past. The kid was way cheaper, too, earning $628K per season at the time (soon to be $3.75 million) to “Flower’s” whopping $5.7 million.
Yet while hindsight is always 20/20, I’ve decided to pose the question.
Did we make the right choice?
It’s based mostly on my perception that, solid numbers aside, Murray hasn’t been the same ice-water cool goaltender he was early in his career, at least in terms of making the key saves. A perception that would seem to be shared, at least to a degree, by none other than Pens GM Jim Rutherford.
When asked about his club’s present progress in a recent interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Matt Vensel, JR didn’t mince words.
“Our goaltending has been good at times,” he said. “We’re giving up some goals at key times that are stoppable that I think would have changed our record. We just have to get that consistency level. We have goalies who are capable.”
It’s been my gut feeling that over the past couple of seasons, Murray has developed a disturbing penchant for allowing the goal you don’t want to give up, precisely when you don’t want to give it up. I honestly can’t remember the last time I felt as if the rangy Thunder Bay native stole us a win.
I’ll back up my negative views with a few examples.
During a Stadium Series match-up on February 23, 2019, the Pens battled heroically with four defensemen only to watch Murray allow two goals in the final three minutes of regulation to enable Philly to rally from a 3-1 deficit. Claude Giroux scored at 1:59 of overtime to cap the collapse.
A week later, in a near-instant replay, Murray surrendered a softy from the blue line to allow Buffalo to tie with 152 tics left on the clock before yielding the overtime-winner to ex-teammate Conor Sheary.
On March 17, the embattled goalie lost a lead…and a shutout bid…with 19 seconds remaining against the Flyers. Then he leaked for the overtime winner to Sean Couturier with four seconds left in the extra stanza.
Need more proof? During the ill-fated playoff series against the Islanders last spring, the Pens grabbed a lead in Game 2, only to watch Murray yield the game-tying goal less than three minutes later. A similar scenario played out in Game 3, but this time it took the Islanders all of 28 seconds to notch the equalizer. In Game 4…94 seconds.
Granted, Murray wasn’t entirely to blame, especially in the playoffs. The Pens were, to be kind, atrocious and defensive support was at times nonexistent.
Still, the goalie is the last line of defense. A big save can serve as a turning point and rallying cry for a team, especially one down on its luck. I just don’t see Murray doing that all that often. At least not at critical junctures.
As for Fleury? He’s enjoyed a marvelous resurgence out west. In 2017-18 “Flower” led the expansion Vegas Golden Knights all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, where he experienced a meltdown against the Cup-winning Capitals.
For that matter, so did Murray, who yielded two critical third-period goals in a pivotal Game 5 loss to the Caps a month earlier, followed by the overtime and series winner in Game 6, ending the Pens’ two-year reign as Cup champions.
Back to Fleury. Last season he finished second in the league with eight shutouts. This season he leads the league in wins. At age 34, the Gumby-esque goalie is still cat-quick and going strong.
Would we have been better off keeping Flower? I’ll let you decide. As a send-off, here are Murray and Fleury’s numbers since the start of the 2017-18 season.
| Goalie | GP | MINS | GA | SH | GAA | SV% | W-L-T/O | QS | QS% |
| Fleury | 121 | 7108 | 284 | 13 | 2.40 | .920 | 73-37-10 | 73 | .608 |
| Murray | 111 | 6301 | 289 | 6 | 2.75 | .914 | 63-33-10 | 57 | .533 |
Fleury. Might have.gotten one more cup.
yes fleury
Fleury
FLEURY
Fleury
Fleury
Fleury
OK Rick,
I thought your bias against Murray was a MAF or Murray vs both are good goalies.
Sorry, I don’t believe you don’t have to be in one camp or another. I believe you can like both goalies.
So let me add these stats for you;
at 5 on 5
Sv% Murray .922 vs MAF .923 (equal)
HDSv% Murray 0.852 vs MAF 0.815 (Murray far better on high danger chances)
SA/60 Murray 31.1 vs MAF 29.58 (MAF better insulated)
HDC/60 Murray 8.3 vs MAF 7.68 (MAF better insulated)
Rush Att/60 Murray 1.74 vs MAF 1.58 (MAF better insulated)
Rebounds/60 Murray 3.33 vs MAF 3.28 (MAF slightly better at rebound control)
Avg Sht Lngth 36.75 Murray vs MAF 36.54 (MAF slightly better insulated)
Age 25 Murray vs 34 MAF
Now the big one
Salary $3.75 million Murray vs $7 million MAF.
Sorry Rick bottom line is the differences a very minimal with in my opinion Murray being a hair better, a lot younger, and a lot cheaper. In a Cap era the Penguins made a great choice! The only problem was paying a draft pick to Vegas to take MAF – That was ASININE JR
Hey Other Rick,
I’m certainly not suggesting Murray’s been a washout by any stretch. He’s done a decent job. Especially when you consider the Penguins’ team defense over the past couple of seasons…particularly in 2018-19…has been abysmal.
He’s been hung out to dry more often than the family bed sheets on wash day.
Along those lines, I agree that Vegas does a better job of insulating their goalies. Most teams do.
However, it doesn’t alter my perception that Murray has been vulnerable at crunch time. At least until I decided to do some ciphering and look up his record in regular-season games decided by a single goal since the start of the 2017-18 campaign, which I would consider high-pressure affairs.
To my surprise, Murray’s record is 25-9-8. Highly respectable and…honestly…much better than I would’ve thought, especially given his struggles in 2016-17 (2.92 goals against average, .907 save percentage).
I checked Fleury’s record in games decided by one goal over the same span. It’s 30-13-10…again very good. So perhaps there isn’t as much separating the goalies as I initially believed.
Still, I’d to see Murray make the big save a little more often at critical junctures.
Rick
Ask and you shall receive Rick
5 on 5 in 1 goal games up or down
Sv% Murray 0.923 vs MAF 0.919 Murray better
HDSV% Murray 0.846 vs MAF 0.799 Murray wins again in High Danger
SA/60 Murray 31.24 vs MAF 29.73 (MAF still insulated better)
HD/60 Murray 8.41 vs MAF 7.64 (MAF still insulated better)
Rush/60 Murray 1.82 vs MAF 1.55 (MAF still insulated better)
Rebound/60 Murray 3.39 vs MAF 3.34 (MAF slightly bettter)
Sh Lngth Murray 36.6 vs MAF 36.31
So not only does Murray edge MAF in SV%, his goes up under pressure while MAF’s goes down. Murray’s HDSv% drops .06 while MAF’s drops .16, significantly more.
So Murray is better under pressure, younger and cheaper.
All the while in general Vegas acatually protects MAF a little better in 1 goal games than they do over all. In the mean time, the Penguins as a team protect Murray less when the game is tight, relying on the guy kid that won them 2 Cups before his rookie season ended.
I still take Murray, but I still won’t disrespect MAF.
Oh and Rick,
If you want to compare MAF at 23-25 to Murray at 23-25, a span of time where MAF was on a team with Crosby and Malkin in their prime and going to the finals 2x,
MAF actual ties Murray for over all Sv% EV within 1 goal 0.923% but Murray still stops more HD chances but by a much smaller margin.
And for Phil at the same age MAF had a 0.914Sv% on those teams Cup teams with a HDSv% of 0.804
MAF and Murray are rather interchangable no matter how you look at them objectively.
What was it that Rush sang? “An ounce of Perception, a Pound of Obscure”. Perception does way too often obscure truth.
MAF was good. Many people complained about him in his youth the same way you complain about Murray. Go back if you can to the chatter between Cups when Vokoun and others out played MAF in the Playoffs – how quickly we forget.
MAF may still end up holding all of the Penguins records when Murray retires, even if Murray survives the unwarranted blame game to redirect attention from a team declining faster than it need to due to bad GM and coach decisions.
I would have wished for a different environment in the NHL, one that would have allowed MAF retire a Penguin – with Murray and Fleury sharing the role and perhaps winning 1 more Cup with Vegas taking Sheary rather than MAF.
Hey guys great stuff, interesting.
Rick’s point is that Murray doesn’t seem to have the “ice water” cool that he used to have in pressure situations.
That being said, tOR, i noticed in your numbers that you do not include the playoffs. The highest pressure situations. MAF 9.22 sv% Murray 9.07 sv%
Regular season, Murray’s actual save % (not tOR’s cherry picked stat) 9.14% Fluery’s 9.20% Why would we not include power plays and short handed. Once again very high pressure situations.
If Fluery has a slightly better save % and If Murray is “far better” at high danger chances, I’m assuming that means that Murray lets in “far” more easy to save goals.
I would much rather have Murray do better than Fluery and all other goalies in the league. That is just not happening.
Phil,
I didn’t include playoff numbers because Rick didn’t.
Also, when talking playoffs, it is not fair to compare statistics since Conference teams do not crossover until the Finals. When comparing MAF to Murray against the Capitals MAF’s Sv% in 2018 was 0.853, Murray’s Sv% was 0.905 against the Caps that year.
Again, no disrespect to MAF, Ovie and crew were on fire that year, but I still take Murray.
No matter how it is sliced the Penguins made the right choice, especially considering the salary. How much worse would this team look if you had to drop more players to afford that additional $3.25 million in 1 goalie rather than skaters.
I don’t know who cherry picks more, you or Mike Bossy. lol.
Hmm….
You mean not liking to compare Apples to Oranges? Only comparing Apples to Apples (games against the Caps from the same season)?
Or do you mean comparing Oranges to Oranges (Staying with Rick’s Regular season stats)?
Bossy had a Shooting% of 21.1%, 9th best for players who have played 82 games or more; one of the premier snipers in the league. I’ll take that, comparison. You are over complimentary but again I’ll take it and say thank you.
9th best shooting pct since they have been tracking that stat.
Hey Rick & Phil,
1 more parting shot before I move on.
In the 1st 2 months of his final season (Oct – Nov 2016) in Pgh MAF posted a Sv% of 0.904, hardly all star stuff. The MAF haters were out in force and the Narrative on Murray was that he had ice water in his veins taking on the best of the best and not flinching. Your perceptions are extremely obscured. In the Playoffs from 2009-2010 and 2015 – 2016 MAF posted Sv% of under 0.900 every year. In fact in his 11 Playoff Seasons he posted Sv% above 0.900 on 5 times, less than half.
I hate having to post these items to give the MAF haters fuel and have them act just like you two Murray haters (and that is what your arguments read like) with ridiculous popularity contests.
Hey Other Rick,
Now you’re putting words in my mouth…and in writing…that I didn’t remotely say. At no point did I say I hate Murray…nor did Phil.
I simply pointed out that he has a penchant for giving up goals at inopportune times…and cited some solid examples that your blizzard of stats do nothing to refute.
He had a poor outing against Boston (so did Jarry) that cost us a win. Then he comes in and leaks a goal 19 seconds into his next start…and proceeds to yield two more. Yes, he made amends with two huge saves…momentum turners…and had a huge hand in the win over the Islanders.
But I stand by what I said. We need more efforts from him like last night when he looked like the Murray of old…stiffening at crunch time…instead of vice versa.
Jim Rutherford thinks so, too. To dismiss JR’s opinion…a former NHL goalie…is just plain silly.
As for digging up numbers from when Fleury was young? Talk about a shell game. I was specifically talking about the past two seasons leading into this one. And I think the numbers show that Fleury has been every bit as effective over that span as Murray. Perhaps more so.
Rick
Sorry Rick, but again you show a bias (overtly or inadvertently) by saying he leaked in a goal in the 1st 19 seconds. Murray had to hold that near post, the body language of both Pettersson and DeColle was that the puck would come back up the near side. He did his best to get back across the crease and would have stop the puck had Cisikas pushed the puck like a lot of players (Simon?) would have done but Cisikas showed some skill in lifting the puck up and over Murray but under the crossbar (again – unlike Simon?).
The goal was a combination of a bounce and good play by the shooter. There are always 2 teams on the ice. The only goal I (a former goalie – someone who knows what it is like to have to try and stop that play) hold Murray accountable for is the SHG.
But you do have media company in your bias, Jay Caufield an NHLer, but a wing and a marginal one at that said in the post game review that Murray let in 3 goals. He didn’t say NY scored 3 goals he pushed JR’s pablum and said Murray let in the goals as if Murray was a bum.
Caufield never played goal and he was as I said marginal so I take what he says with a grain of salt. JR has a 2-fold vested interest in creating an illusion that Murray is a problem, 1) He can use the court of public opinion to try and keep down Murray’s value at the end of the season, and 2) He can use his blame game to CYA his culpability for the poor job he has been doing for the last 3 years.
As for Murray v MAF, I did agree with you that their numbers are relatively equal. However, considering MAF is more insulated and Murray has slightly better SV% in HD and high leverage moments, I give Murray the edge as to who the Penguins should have kept.
It is just a guessing game to actually know if MAF could put a better number in the same circumstance. However, as many people keep glossing over, Murray is younger and vastly cheaper, so MAF would have to out perform by at least double to justify the Penguins having kept him.
The team MAF just doesn’t want to acknowledge the NHL realities. Yes he was good, so far the best in Penguin history. But given all variables, Murray is and was the best choice any other argument is a discussion of popularity not utility.