This feature actually began as a reply to Mike, one of our faithful and astute PenguinPoop commenters. As I began to fashion my response and the juices began to flow, I figured I’d make it into a full-blown article.
So Mike, this one’s for you.
You mentioned that numbers lie, which reminded me of an old adage popularized by Mark Twain. “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
I’m not saying advanced stats don’t have value when evaluating a player’s performance. Obviously, they reflect certain aspects of a player’s game.
Do they tell the whole story? Of course not. They don’t reveal those wonderful intangibles that make us who we are. Do we have heart? Do we have character? When push comes to shove, do we stand firm or melt in the face of adversity?
I give Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford high marks because he looks past a player’s stats. Describing his 2015 trade with Chicago for Trevor Daley, JR provided insight into his approach in an article for The Players’ Tribune.
After looking at the deal from every angle, what I asked myself before I got on the phone with Stan Bowman in Chicago was the same question I’ve used to guide almost every move I’ve made over the last 30-plus years.
“Does this guy have the heart?” Call me old-fashioned, but I think that question will take you a long way in this game.
Erik Gudbranson and Jack Johnson are classic examples. Advanced stats say these guys–ironically each a former third overall pick–are terrible defensemen. That’s not what I see when I watch them play.
Johnson’s a war horse. He shows up, shift in and shift out, and gives you everything he’s got. He firmly plays the man (a career-high 199 hits and counting) and blocks shots (124). His best offensive days are behind him, but he still makes a nice outlet pass. In fact, Johnson ranked sixth best among NHL defensemen who logged at least 1000 even-strength minutes in completing outlet passes from the defensive zone to the neutral zone last season. To my eye, that aspect of his game hasn’t diminished.
I’m sure he absorbs a physical beating, yet he comes to play night after night and gives the same effort. While other black-and-gold defensemen have dropped like flies in recent weeks Jack’s been a bulwark, averaging nearly 24 minutes of ice time over the past seven games, including a season-high 31:08 in the recent Stadium Series square-off with the Flyers.
A good guy in the locker room, too.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence the team has turned around since Gudbranson’s arrival at the trade deadline. You can see Erik’s character in his bearing on the ice. Nobody on opposing teams trifle with him, including the tough guys. It reminds me of the way foes would steer clear of “Battleship” Kelly back in the day.
His presence has had the desired effect on our psyche. When was the last time we matched the Columbus Blue Jackets hit for hit? When was the last time you saw a Pens defenseman knock an opposing forward on his butt, as Gudbranson did to Boone Jenner on Thursday night?
That has a huge psychological effect on a team. Something you can’t quantify with metrics.
Our skill players seem less skittish, knowing they don’t have to worry as much about who’s going to run them or whether they might have to drop the gloves to defend themselves or a teammate. They can concentrate on hockey instead.
The results (4-0-1 in our past five games) are plain to see.
From a performance standpoint, Gudbranson’s been way better than advertised…way better than his previous metrics would suggest. He’s been solid in all aspects of the game, including penalty killing. He’s shown some surprising offensive flair, too, jumping into the play at opportune times. His decision-making seems sound as well. Enough to earn coach Mike Sullivan’s trust (over 20 minutes of ice time per game).
I’m glad JR didn’t pay attention to the numbers (or the critics) and looked at the heart instead.
Hey all,
I don’t mean to seem like I’m picking on the kid. But could somebody please explain to me Mike Sullivan’s apparent love affair with Dominik Simon?
The top line was doing fine with Jared McCann. So Sully yanks McCann off, sticks Simon next to Sid, and the line grinds to a halt.
Yes, Simon has some skill. But he’s doing nothing, and I mean N-O-T-H-I-N-G when he’s on the ice. The departed Conor Sheary didn’t exactly light it up playing with Sid, but he at least scored a few goals and provided some speed and energy. Simon’s barely involved when he’s out there.
Frankly, that’s what drives me nuts about Sullivan. He tries to fix what isn’t broken, and he has a penchant for playing and promoting his favorites, even when it isn’t warranted.
Rick
Answered.
Hey Rick,
I don’t get the Simon thing either. Maybe it’s Sullivan still looking for that elusive scoring third line.
I don’t think the Simon for McCann switch made much difference last night. They were simply outskated and outplayed. And, while they are credited with 10 giveaways, you can easily double that and not be wrong.
And, whew… Boston up next. Better not be toe picking on the blue line tonight.
— 55
Hi Everyone,
Hope all is well.
I have some thoughts on the team to share with you guys . I will probably wait to comment about it. It will be to long.
All I can say it’s a bless in disguise to see Letang out of the lineup. Penguins are better without him . Always . Johnson has been ok. Good enough. He doesn’t fit this team and don’t really bring nothing spectacular. He should not be playing in the top 4 and I feel so bad for Malkin with Kessel. Schultz too.
I would rather see Määttä back in the lineup. He hung ties Schultz a lot. With other players as well. IMO. I would like him gone.
I would rather Oleskiak because he was cheaper and was improving.
I have no problem with Erik Gubranson. I always like him. I thought he could be a great fit here long time ago. I just didn’t like the cap space. I would take Dumoulin, Määttä, Schultz, Gudbranson every day of week. I still like Rikkola and Pettersson to extent . I think they both should a muscle and playing in WBS. Be 7th and 8th D for injuries. I would prefer to play Dumoulin and Schultz together with a new RHD for Määttä. Or Määttä and Schultz with new RHD for Dumoulin. Get a LHD for Gudbranson and have him the top 4 at times with Määttä. Penguins are a better team without Letang and Johnson.
Johnson has had good enough moments here and there. He’s still be bad and don’t like him on the team at all.
Simon experiment needs to be over. Sheary 2.0 McCann or Rust should be playing there. I don’t comprehend it. McCann was doing pretty well them. Simon is a very meh Ahl player…
I will comment about other stuff later..
LGP! 2 points tonight.
Also Ashton-Reese should not playing in the top 6 . Adam Johnson should have his chance there with his speed and forecheck that helps them. ( Malkin) .
Resse is slow and do not read well to get play quick for Malkin. He doesn’t fit there. Malkin and Kessel are clicking with LW that can benefit that line to be hard to play against. A lot of time it just Malkin and Kessel our there. Working down low. Resse only like throw hits and not move his feet. I’m sorry. He’s like one or two injuries out of the league. I would sign to a new deal.
Simon and Resse needs to go. A Johnson and Blueger should be getting 10-12 minutes a night.
It’s amazing Blueger was clicking doing everything with scoring and no long leash for him. It is what it is.
Simon should not be playing on the top line at all.
I CANT WAIT TO SEE SOMEONE KNOCK HIM OUT ON BACK.
Sullivan and Reechi is the big detriment to this team will Letang..
Hello Dee,
Always good to hear from you and read your comments. Always impassioned and well-thought.
While I don’t know if the Pens are a better team without Letang, there isn’t much question they’ve tightened things up with him in the press box. In fact, our recent 4-0-1 stretch has coincided neatly with his absence.
I won’t deny there are times when “Tanger” plays it fast and loose (and none too smart), but I think overall he’s an asset. I also think our defensive improvement stems from a conscious effort to play better ‘d’ with him out of the lineup. I hope that mindset continues when he returns.
Our opinions differ on Jack Johnson. Following an undeniably rocky start, I think he’s been pretty steady. The fact that he’s been back on his natural (left) side since Schultz returned has helped his game, too, something Mike Sullivan mentioned. While it doesn’t hurt to be paired with Schultz, I think Johnson’s held up his end of the bargain.
I hate to say this, but the guy I don’t want to see force fed back in the lineup is Maatta. It isn’t so much that I have issues with Olli as much as it is who we’d probably have to sit to make room for him…Gudbranson. I think pulling the big guy out of the lineup would be a giant mistake…for all the reasons I mentioned in my article.
Bottom line…he makes us braver. And, at least for now, better.
Of course, as we all know, injuries occur. So it might be a moot point before all is said and done.
In terms of your other comments, we see eye to eye. I like Aston-Reese and think he can fill a top-six slot in a pinch, but not full-time. Actually, I’d like to see Adam Johnson get a shot next to Malkin and Kessel. Turn him loose and give him the Carl Hagelin role…hunting pucks, applying pressure with his speed and creating space for his high-profile linemates.
I’m also with you on Simon and Blueger. To me, the former’s done next to nothing for quite a while now. What Sullivan sees in him, I don’t know. One writer on the P-G referred to him as a “cardboard cutout.” Not to be overly harsh, but he’s been practically invisible lately…similar in many ways to Brassard.
Conversely, I thought Blueger was very impressive and provided a real spark in his first few games. Then Sully mothballs him. Go figure.
More importantly, GO PENZ!
Rick
Hey ,
I will reply on Määttä.. l
Määttä should be in the lineup after he feels better to come back. I’m pairing him with Schultz. We can agree to disagree on that . He’s a great second pairing defenseman. Belongs in the lineup.
Jack Johnson is playing ok and that’s all. Nothing special. Have some good moments here and there. He’s slow among other things. He weighs this team for the playing they need effectively..
I see no difference.
He is not a top 4 defenseman. He should not be playing in the top 4 where Sullivan keep deploying him that hurts Malkin and other players..
It’s between Pettersson and Johnson..
I would be surprised to see Rutherford move on from Jack Johnson… soon or later.. I know for certain that if Dumoulin,Määttä and Letang didn’t go down .. Rutherford was gonna Trade Jack Johnson..
We will agree to disagree. I see Letang as asset to move on from with Johnson.
I know that I have no problem with Gubranson and Määttä are younger and will continue to grow.
Penguins are constantly defending with Johnson on the ice. They consistently one and done with him….etccc.. Johnson do not fit this team style of play … He is not good ..
Malkin and Crosby spend to much time defending with him on the ice.. Schultz and Johnson are not good together..
Bad hockey player and bad signing..
Interesting observation, Dee. I’ll have to look for that when I watch the games.
Rick