Conundrum. Merriam-Webster defines it as an intricate or difficult problem. An apt word, I thought, to describe the Penguins’ present predicament with goaltender Matt Murray.
I’m sure coach Mike Sullivan would love to get his erstwhile No. 1 goalie some starts to boost his sagging confidence. But therein lies the rub. When Murray plays, pucks get behind him. At an alarming rate. Just like last night during a lackluster 4-1 loss to Vancouver, for instance. The Thunder Bay native yielded those four goals while facing only 14 shots on goal.
For those of you who aren’t good at math, that’s a .714 save percentage. Matching his numbers against the Canucks back on November 27, when he was yanked like an aching tooth in favor of Tristan Jarry.
Mind you, I’m not pinning last night’s loss entirely on Murray. He had help. The Pens appeared sluggish, as might be expected playing on back-to-back nights while wrapping up a pre-holiday swing through Western Canada. Hell and Dominik Simon (more on him later) conspired to put us two-men short for what seemed like the entire back half of the first period. There’s only so much 5-on-3 you can kill.
Still, Jake Guentzel knocked in a power-play goal from the doorstep at 15:28 of the second period to pull us to within 2-1. Our guys were still very much in the game. That is, until Murray yielded the back-breaker to Elias Pettersson 44 seconds later on an eminently stoppable wrister. From that point on, it was pretty much game, set and match Canucks.
Again, when Murray plays, pucks go in…often at the worst possible times.
Since being pulled against Boston on November 4, the former Cup hero’s posted a bloated goals against average of 3.71 over his past 11 games, to go with an .854 save percentage. Positively sieve-like. His overall quality starts percentage? A shockingly poor .409.
During that same stretch, Jarry’s goals against (1.82) and save percentage (.939) are exemplary. His record, 10-3 versus Murray’s 3-3-3.
Talk about two goalies trending in opposite directions! Small wonder Jarry has snatched the goaltending reins from his more heralded counterpart…and shows no signs of handing them back.
Which brings me to the second part of the conundrum. What to do with Murray?
He’s in the final season of a cap-friendly three-year-deal that pays him $3.75 million per season. I sure don’t want to sign this guy to a long-term deal for big money. If anything, it may be time to consider moving him. Toronto’s rumored to be in the hunt for a goalie.
I guess time will tell how the Murray saga plays out. For now, it’s hard to see him regaining his old form. Or his starting job.
While We’re Talking Conundrums…
…I’ll toss out two words. Dominik Simon.
If ever there was a poster child for the gap between metrics and tangible contributions, it’s the Czech forward.
Not being a metrics maven, I won’t delve too deep. But No. 12 currently has a Corsi for of 56.8 percent. Outstanding…fifth-best on the team behind some very notable guys (Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin). For his career, it’s 55.7. Again, very impressive.
It basically means Simon’s on the ice for a lot more shot attempts for than against. Hinting that he helps drive offense while playing well defensively.
And that’s where the gap between perception and reality…or more accurately…metrics and production occurs. A pronounced one at that.
Simon simply doesn’t contribute on the score sheet. He has two goals in 36 games, and that’s with spending considerable time on a line with Crosby and Guentzel, a practice that mercifully halted with Sid’s injury.
With nary a point, Simon’s completely dried up during the Pens’ recent 7-2 hot streak. Oh, and he’s a minus-4 over that span. A minus-10 since the beginning of November (with four measly assists).
So much for his defensive prowess.
As for my eye test? Simon has some hockey smarts, skates well and does a good job of cycling once the puck gets down low. He’s crafty, generally handles the puck well in traffic, and has some subtle skills. When he’s on the ice with highly skilled players, he can be an effective complimentary player.
Having written that, his shots never seem to get through to the net, let alone contribute to a scoring play. Ditto his passes, as evidenced by his paltry assist total over the past two months. Nor does he have a knack for finding the seams, a necessary trait to produce in today’s NHL.
Should the Pens stick with Simon? Or should they give someone else a try…say Adam Johnson. For the record, the latter possesses blazing speed and presently has 16 points in 16 games with the Baby Pens, including three goals.
He could hardly score less than Simon.
Jarry..#1. Casey #2.
I know folks say I am crazy but boys seem less sluggish and alive with Jarry.
Good article. I unfortunately think Murray is broke for the Pens. He may be able to resurrect something of a career elsewhere with a better system fit for him, but the style the Pens play needs an athletic goalie who can make big stops…specifically thinking of Jarry`s 2 on 0 stop a couple nights ago. Anytime Murray is faced with a breakaway I hope he stands still and the shooter shoots into him. No hard feelings towards him, but i don’t think we win a cup with him.
and the part about Simon is dead-on
Finally….someone said it.
Couldn’t agree more – I love the job Sully is doing with the team but
Simon to me is wearing out his welcome.
IMO – he needs to be able to play in our Top 9 – he’s just not a good
fit as a 4th line player.
Send him on his way
Hi Rick!
First of all, I would like to send you (and also TOR) my best wishes for a holy and peaceful Christmas and a happy New Year 2020.
I didn’t watch the entire game but from what I’ve seen, the Pens looked sluggish. When I looked at Murray’s numbers for the game, it was not impressive. I have already mentioned it and I am going to repeat myself here, but Matt Murray has been struggling for quite a long time. It started last year but it seems worse this year because Jarry is on a winning streak.
Let’s face it; the teams plays better hockey when Jarry is in the net. Players are more aware, they clear the rebounds quickly and they feel more confident. Jarry, in a way, reminds me of Fleury; same eagerness to challenge the opponent, combined with outstanding display of athleticism. Of course, Jarry still has time to improve but I like what I see so far.
But there is something still lurking in my mind: same goalie coach but different results! Do you have an explanation for that, Rick?
As for Dominik Simon, I have noticed his goal drought as well. As you mentioned, he plays well in limited areas and when the task remains simple (the KISS principle as we call it). But he doesn’t ignite things that would change the momentum of the game. I agree with you when you say that Adam Johnson
could hardly score less than Simon. The Pens haven’t given him yet a real opportunity to prove himself.
Rick,
Wow, that escalated or de-escalated really fast. It went from Murry’s the starting goalie to who should be the starting goalie to are the Penguin’s losing points having Murray as the back up? Michel Dion ring a bell?
I wouldn’t pin the loss on Murray last night either, but at the same time there was even another goal against last night called back because Vancouver was offside. Murray is now 50th in the NHL in save percentage.
If Murray is traded before he completely loses all of his value, can the Penguins bring up DeSmith without him having to go through waivers? I don’t know the answer to that. I know a bunch of teams are looking for goaltending right now.
The whole Simon problem in my opinion is that Sullivan plays him on top lines. He fills a solid roster spot for minimum wage. When you are against the cap you need those guys.
Johnson came up then went flat after two games. He may be better, not sure. I do like Lafferty better than Simon. Having too many role players has been a great problem.
Hi Phil!
I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year and hope that 2020 will be a good year for you!
I agree with you when you say that there are too many role players with the Pens. The bottom six has lost its luster. Not a long time ago, players like Bonino, Hagelin, Tom Kühnhackl, Fehr were playing on that bottom six. The current bottom six is interchangeable.
Is it because the Pens coaching staff is not patient enough with the prospects? What are your thoughts about that, Phil?
Hey Jorenz,
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you also!
I was saying that it’s not a problem having too many role players. Lafferty, Blueger, Simon, Johnson, Aston-Reese. Even better if you can send them up and down without having to clear waivers.
These are all solid guys and a bunch of them kill penalties. Johnson wasn’t played much after his big start. It seemed to me that he kind of slacked off. Non stop hustle the first few games then he dragged which is why Sullivan cut his minutes. Maybe after the adrenaline wore of he wasn’t in good enough shape to do it on a nightly basis.
I was thinking with all the Penguins injuries and all of the guys that they call up that the Pens are doing a great job with the prospects. The players seem to come right up onto the big team without skipping a beat. Penguins need solid minimum wage guys so they can pay the big guys salaries.
I would also have to point to the Marino’s, Petterson’s and other guys like that who have failed on other teams and come here and thrive. It would be hard for me to say they don’t do a great job with prospects.
Hey Phil,
Sorry, I misread your comment about the role players. You said it was a great problem and I just saw the word problem…
But I still maintain my opinion for certain bottom six players! :o)
Hey Phil,
Great comments, as always. And an excellent point about DeSmith. I do think he’d need to pass through waivers in order to play for the Pens. As you mentioned, with so many teams looking for goaltending, in all likelihood he’d be claimed. So I guess there are worse things we can do than hang onto Murray for the time being.
And I am reminded that just a couple of short seasons ago we needed both Murray and Fleury, who’d had a rough regular season, to win a Cup. So maybe I’m premature in suggesting the Pens find a trade partner for Murray.
I just don’t want to see JR sign him to any kind of long-term deal. Not with the way he’s playing.
Rick
Phil
I know I’ve said this before but i don’t see Simon as an option on our
4th line. I don’t see him in that role. Just my opinion.