Are the Penguins Good Enough to Win the Stanley Cup?

Given the total uncertainty over when we’ll emerge from the coronavirus pause, this feature may be totally moot. But with nothing else in particular to do, I thought I’d take a stab at answering my own question.

Are the Penguins good enough to win the Stanley Cup?

I’ll start with another question. Who are the real Pittsburgh Penguins? The group that showed incredible character and pluck against enormous odds to pile up a 37-15-6 record and snatch first place in the Metropolitan Division? Or the one that dissolved immediately afterward into a dismal 3-8 funk?

Our Cup chances depend greatly on our true identity. As of the pause, I’m not sure that’s crystallized.

A Quick Review

I really liked our Cup chances earlier this season. The players had bought into Mike Sullivan’s system hook, line and sinker and were executing his north-south style to a T. Even noted freelancer and drop-passer Evgeni Malkin was playing a straight-line game, to great effect. All four lines were getting on the opposition and forcing turnovers with an aggressive forecheck. They were converting on those opportunities, too. All the while cutting way down on our odd-man breaks against.

Then the bloom started to come off the rose in January. Actually, it probably began to fade the minute Jake Guentzel lurched off the ice with what looked like a season-ending shoulder injury shortly after notching his 20th goal on New Year’s Eve. Jake was enjoying an MVP-type season and there’s just no way to replace a guy like that.

Too, the team was beset by injuries. It’s a heck of a lot easier to list the guys who didn’t miss any time due to injury and illness…Teddy Blueger, Jack Johnson (67 games and a pair of healthy scratches) and Marcus Pettersson…than those who did. Suddenly, the Pens seemed to hit a wall.

Nor did it help that Sullivan elected to shorten his bench, rarely giving his fourth line more than five or six minutes a game…sometimes less. It appeared to wear down a core group of forwards who were already overextended.

To remedy the situation, general manager Jim Rutherford made three trades to bolster his forward depth. Jason Zucker, Patrick Marleau, Conor Sheary and Evan Rodrigues were added prior to the trade deadline, while promising Dominik Kahun was shipped to Buffalo. Although Zucker produced well (six goals and 12 points in 15 games) while teamed with Sidney Crosby, the others seemed to be feeling their way along.

Getting Healthy

If there’s a benefit to the pause, it gives our guys a chance to get healthy. The Pens lost a whopping 298 man games to injury…the third highest total in the league. Many involving impact players such as Crosby and Guentzel.

Key defensemen Brian Dumoulin and John Marino returned to the lineup just prior to the shutdown and were playing their way back into form. Zach Aston-Reese was quietly having an exceptional year defensively before being felled by a lower-body injury in mid-February. His absence coincided with the team’s unexpected tumble, and his “Grind” linemates Blueger and Brandon Tanev were far less effective without him.

But of course, the biggest boost of all could be the return of Guentzel. He combined with Malkin and Bryan Rust to form a lethal line. Getting “Jake the Snake” back would enhance the Pens’ Cup chances ten-fold.

Since I’m touching on personnel, let’s take a look at the crew on hand.

Forwards

Rutherford did his best to add forward depth at the trade deadline. If everybody stays healthy…and that’s a big if…this is what the line combinations could look like:

Zucker-Crosby-Sheary/Simon, Guentzel-Malkin-Rust, Marleau-McCann-Hornqvist, ZAR-Blueger-Tanev with Nick Bjugstad, Sam Lafferty and Rodrigues in reserve.

That’s a pretty good bunch in anyone’s book. My concerns? Will Zucker fully mesh with Crosby? Will Sheary and/or Simon produce enough to support them? Will the third line somehow coalesce? It’s been a black hole since the HBK Line flourished back in 2016.

Defense

Not to sound like a broken record, but health is the key…especially on defense. If any of our top six go down for any length of time…a distinct possibility during the postseason cauldron…we could be in for a world of hurt.

Dumoulin is the only guy who can effectively cover Kris Letang’s arse when the mercurial defenseman freelances. With his strong all-around game, Marino is huge as well. Pettersson proved to be only so-so with lesser partners.

I’m not entirely sold on the third pairing of Johnson and Justin Schultz. In a best-case scenario, it’s the ideal marriage of a rugged stay-at-home defender with a skilled puck mover. However, both were struggling before the pause.

Chad Ruhwedel is a decent seventh d-man in a pinch, but not as effective over the long haul. Pray the Pens don’t need to rely on him. Juuso Riikola has all the tools but apparently not the confidence of the coaching staff. He tends to space-out at times in his own zone.

Goal

After riding each for a stretch, Sullivan rotated incumbent Matt Murray and All-Star Tristan Jarry with mixed results. Both proved they can carry the team when hot. But neither was at the top of his game prior to the shutdown.

I’ve gone on record as being a Jarry guy. He’s a superior puck handler and I like his athleticism, coolness under fire and the way he stands tall in the net.

Having said that, I’m 99 percent sure Sullivan will ride Murray. Matt’s won two Cups and has shown flashes of his old self here and there, but for the most part he’s been sub-par this season (2.87 GAA, .899 SV%, .421 QS%).

Whoever gets the nod, they’ll need to steal some games. You don’t win a Cup without front-line goaltending.

Intangibles

I was so impressed with the Pens’ heart, soul and grit earlier this season. No matter what form of adversity the hockey gods served up, our guys gamely pulled together and surmounted it.

Then came the cold snap and the bottom fell out. Suddenly, the Pens looked disinterested, disheartened and, at times, downright timid. Sloppy, too.

Yeah, every team goes through a slump now and then. But I’m concerned that we lost our identity in the process. Not a good thing come playoff time.

Too, I worry if the Pens are physically built for the rigors of Stanley Cup competition. Our brain-trust assembled a quicksilver squad in the image of our 2016 champions and speed does kill. However, can we withstand the pounding we’re sure to take at the hands of teams like Washington, Boston or even Tampa Bay?

I don’t know.

No Passengers

Early in the season the Pens were getting offensive contributions up and down the lineup. It was one of the team’s strengths. But too many guys have vanished from the score sheet.

The poster child is McCann, who hadn’t scored a goal in 22 games prior to the pause. He had company. Tanev hadn’t scored in 16, Dominik Simon in 12 and Blueger in 11.

Passengers are great for sailboats, but not Cup contenders. All oars need to be in the water and pulling in unison.

The Competition

There’s plenty of stiff competition, not only around the league but in the Eastern Conference. Washington leads the Metro and is loaded with firepower, although I think goaltending will prove to be the Caps’ undoing.

The Flyers are much improved and dominated the Pens at times during their last two meetings. They’re extremely well-coached, with Alain Vigneault at the helm and former Pens coaches Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo serving as assistants. As much as it pains me to say it, I think they’re a more complete team.

The same with Boston and Tampa Bay. I’m not sure we survive a seven-game set against either of those clubs.

If we do somehow emerge from the east and make it to the Final, our chances improve. None of the leading contenders in the west…St. Louis, Colorado, Vegas and Edmonton…scare me.

However, getting there will be the problem. And ultimately, I don’t think we have enough to beat the top teams in the east.

Hope our guys prove me wrong.