It’s the purpose of any NHL general manager. Especially one who has a talented core to build around. Improve your team over the off-season in order to have a legitimate shot at winning a Stanley Cup.
In the wake of our embarrassing defeat at the hands of Montreal in the qualifying round of the postseason, Penguins GM Jim Rutherford promised to make changes.
He’s delivered on that promise, adding six new players to the NHL roster (I’ll count Evan Rodrigues who was traded away and re-signed) while shedding eight others. That’s a lot of turnover…roughly one-third of the team.
Still, it begs the question. Are we a better team now than we were in August? I’ll attempt to answer that question in call-and-response fashion. I’m going to ignore financial implications and focus on how the moves will affect us on-ice. Highly subjective, of course.
First Line Right Wing (Incoming: Kasperi Kapanen—Outgoing: Dominik Simon/Conor Sheary)
I won’t devote a whole lot of time to this one. Even if Kapanen doesn’t improve on the 13 goals he tallied last season with Toronto—highly unlikely—he’s a significant upgrade over the Simon/Sheary combo (the Two-Headed Hamster?) that skated beside Sidney Crosby last season. Plain and simple, he’s a more complete player than either of the departed. Verdict: Thumbs up.
Third Line Center (Incoming: Mark Jankowski—Outgoing: Nick Bjugstad)
In some ways, Jankowski resembles the guy he’s replacing. Big frame, moves around the ice in a similar fashion. Will drive to the net. That’s pretty much where the comparison ends. “Bugs” is more physical, versatile and productive (.47 points per game vs .31). Provided Bjugstad stays healthy… Verdict: Thumbs down.
Third Line Right Wing (Incoming: Evan Rodrigues—Outgoing: Patric Hornqvist)
Talk about your polar opposites. Rodrigues a versatile, possession-driving water bug. Hornqvist, an on-ice Stridsvagn 103 tank, steamrollering opposing defenseman and goalies alike with reckless abandon. Dart and ding vs. crash and bang. Although his numbers suggest some playmaking skills, don’t look for Rodrigues to score a ton of goals. Conversely, with 17 markers in 52 games (a 27-goal pace over a full season) Hornqvist was still quite productive in 2019-20 despite spending less time in a top-six role. To say nothing of his grit, heart, spirit, leadership and net-front presence…especially on the power play. Perhaps the only saving grace? Rodrigues is probably better suited to third-line duty than “Horny.” Still, in terms of output… Verdict: Thumbs down.
Bottom Six Forward (Incoming: Colton Sceviour—Outgoing: Patrick Marleau)
This isn’t really an apples-to-apples comparison. Sceviour is a gritty, fourth-line defensive specialist who can slot in at right wing or center. Marleau, a future Hall-of-Famer whose once supreme skills have eroded, plays left wing and center. He was a huge disappointment during his brief stay in the ‘Burgh. Although Sceviour doesn’t figure to produce much (11 goals combined over the past two seasons) this one’s addition by subtraction. Verdict: Thumbs up.
Third Pairing Defense (Incoming: Mike Matheson—Outgoing: Justin Schultz)
I’m going against Egon’s wishes in Ghostbusters and crossing the streams, comparing a port-side defenseman with a right-sider (and vice versa). On the surface, Matheson and Schultz appear to be cut from the same cloth. Both are regarded as offensive defensemen. But digging a little deeper, they’re dissimilar in many ways. I give Matheson an edge in terms of shot, skating and physicality. Durability, too. Schultz gets the nod in terms of vision, puck-distribution and trustworthiness with the biscuit. In stark contrast to Matheson, Justin had a ridiculously low number of giveaways (111) during his four-plus seasons here. It should be noted that he had far fewer takeaways, too. In fact, over the past four seasons Matheson registered 229 takeaways, compared to Schultz’s 50 (and Kris Letang’s 177). Numbers that suggest he’s very involved. A key concern. Given his rather flat assist totals, does Matheson possess the vision and passing skills to move the puck quickly to the forwards per Mike Sullivan’s wishes? Or is he strictly a puck-lugger? Still, with Schultz’s game in decline… Verdict: Thumbs up.
Third Pairing Defense (Incoming: Cody Ceci—Outgoing: Jack Johnson)
Less than two weeks after buying out the last three seasons of Johnson’s contract, GMJR signed what appears to be a virtual clone in Ceci. In comparing their skill sets, metrics and descriptions of their play it’s downright scary how similar they are. In fact, it really isn’t a stretch to describe Ceci as a 26-year-old version of Johnson. Perhaps sans the leadership and locker-room presence. While Cody’s only signed for a year, it’s hard to shake the notion that Rutherford could’ve done better. Too, it appears the Pens plan to pair Ceci with fellow reclamation project Matheson. As we learned so painfully with Johnson and Schultz, two wrongs generally don’t make a right. Verdict: A wash.
Goal (Incoming: Casey DeSmith—Outgoing: Matt Murray)
Although DeSmith isn’t new to the organization, he spent the entire ’19-20 season in exile in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. For the sake of making a comparison, I’ll include him as a newbie. Frankly, this is a hard one to rate. While Murray obviously stands head and shoulders above DeSmith in terms of pedigree, his play over the past few seasons was spotty at best. By contrast, DeSmith squeezed the most out of his abilities during his two-season stay with the Pens. His numbers compare favorably to his more heralded counterpart. DeSmith (2.66 GAA, .917 SV%, .610 QS%, 8.9 GSAA). Murray (2.67 GAA, .914 SV%, .518 QS%, 12.2 GSAA). Still, if starter Tristan Jarry falters or is sidelined for any length of time… Verdict: Thumbs down.
The votes are in. I count three thumbs up and three thumbs down, with one wash.
What do you think?
Rick
Very good article and it does put things into perspective. The point I would
like to make on JR’s additions is this.
Maybe JR added Jankowski and the crew for depth – meaning there could be
the possibility that they have plans to give our younger kids a chance. I’m
keeping my fingers crossed that this is indeed the case.
I agree with the majority of your conclusions. I do think with our goalie situation its actually a wash – Although I’m sure we’re all in agreement the comparison
between DeSmith and Murray is an easy one I do think this is a plus for the
development of Jarry. As long as Murray was on the roster they would be splitting time and Jarry needs more games to reach his potential. He should be in goal
for 70 – 75% of our games with DeSmith playing in the neighborhood of 20 to 25%.
If Ceci doesn’t win the 3rd pairing battle who will keep the crease clean from opposing forwards – I get sick every time I think about the chaos that’s going to exist in front of Jarry.
Keep the articles coming – just think right now we would be 10 -15 games into the
season. Can’t wait to get things back to normal.
GO PEN’S
Thank you Mike.
As much as possible, I wanted to do an apples-to-apples comparison between the newbies and the guy(s) they’re replacing. Subjectivity aside, I hope I was able to do it justice.
Excellent point about the kids and, frankly, one I overlooked. I do think the Pens have reasonably high hopes for Poulin and O’Connor, and I personally hope Sullivan can overlook his usual biases and give Legare an honest shot, too. Speaking of shots, Nathan’s got a bomb, and he’s feisty, gritty and involved. As you and I have mentioned, we could sure use a dollop (more like a truckload) of that.
Too, the Pens seem to be high on Pierre-Olivier Joseph, although his path appears to be blocked…at least for now. Perhaps Marcus Pettersson gets moved down the road to make room.
Excellent point about the goalies as well. I love Jarry, too…I think he has a chance to be special. My main concern is if DeSmith has to take the reins for any length of time. I think he’s a solid backup, but I’m not so sure about him over the long haul. Kind of like Chad Ruhwedel, only in goal.
Rick
PS–I wish the season was starting soon, too. I’m running out of ideas. And it’s a little late for Other Rick to do his statistical expose on Dominik Simon … lol
Hey Rick & Mike,
I Agree with Mike here, I talked to you about this Rick. I believe that Rutherford is coaching by proxy. He saw that Sullivan should have been starting Jarry and couldn’t stop starting Murray. Even though Murray would be the better backup than DeSmith, he had to let him go because Sullivan couldn’t help himself. Same with Dominik Simon. Simon would be a very solid 4th liner, but Sullivan couldn’t keep him off the #1 line. So Rutherford took that option away from Sullivan.
Hey Phil,
So good to hear from you!!!
And I agree with what you have to say regarding Rutherford making personnel decisions by proxy. If I’m not mistaken, the decision to start Jarry in Game Four of the qualifying round came from above…and I’m talking above JR. I think it came from ownership.
Understandable that Murray was Sullivan’s guy…he won him two Cups. But I agree…Sully would’ve kept turning to Murray at Jarry (and the team’s) expense.
Actually, I think there’s been a bit of a behind the scenes power struggle going on for some time regarding personnel. It’s very clear what type of player Sullivan prefers…smaller, quicker guys who fit his system.
It’s interesting to note that none of our top forward prospects…Poulin, O’Connor and Legare…I’ll add Zahorna…fit that mold. It’ll be real interesting to see how Sullivan handles these guys.
Although the dynamic’s different…these kids are prospects…if he does what he did in the cases of Reaves, Oleksiak and, to a lesser extent, Gudbranson…more or less forcing Rutherford’s hand by not playing them…it could cost him his job.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Great idea for an article, great article; it gets one thinking.
My Look is a little different than yours.
First line – Kapanen over Pylon 1A & Pylon 1B? Yes, a major thumbs up. This is like trading in you Yugo, maybe not for a Ferrari or Lamborghini, but at least a Mustang
Third Line Center – Jankowski over Bjugstad? Yes, Major thumbs down.
Jankowski will be the next Jimmy Hayes. More importantly he will be taking up roster space for usable players. As it stands now, barring JR getting Haula in here, Rodrigues would be a better option or Lafferty. You get what you pay for. Jankowski is not making much because he isn’t worth much. $700K is something you pay a kid breaking into the league. If all you feel a 26 yr old is worth is $700k you are saying you got kids in WBS that are as good as him so why do not use them instead. Even Adam Johnson would be an upgrade over Jankowski, and they are both the same age.
Third Line Right Wing – Rodrigues over Hornqvist Yes Major thumbs down.
As you said Hornqvist was coming off a really good season. He may be iffy in the health dept., but the man had his highest 5 on 5 G/60 and 2nd highest 5 on 5 Pnts/60. More importantly, Rodrigues would be better thrown into the mix at Center than Wing. Also, there are other players who could slot in here. Lafferty would be a step down from Hornqvist too, but he is younger and just as versatile as Rodrigues and the money saved from not signing Rodrigues could be going towards a legit 3rd line player (Haula).
Angello is also a step down from Hornqvist of last year, but at least he brings or potentially can bring some of Hornqvist elements to the team that Rodrigues and even Lafferty can’t.
That is why this is such a Major thumbs down.
Bottom six forward Sceviour over Marleau?
Like at 3rd line, this isn’t simply a one for one swap. Sceviour isn’t just replacing Marleau, he will conceivably be bumping Lafferty, Angello, Bjorkqvist, and many other players. This is once again a thumbs down because it isn’t a one for one trade out and it makes signing a player like Haula, who could really help, something more like a pipe dream.
Third Pairing defense Matheson over Schultz?
As you noted this is comparing apples to oranges. Matheson will be taking the slot of either Petterson, Johnson, Riikola, or Joseph. Comparing him to Riikola it is a major thumbs down. Comparing him to Pettersson it is a minor thumbs down. Comparing him to Joseph is impossible to say anything other than at least Joseph won’t be taking up as much Cap space now or in the future. Matheson v Johnson, the only possible way of suggesting a thumbs up but only slightly. But at least in Johnson’s case Johnson would have really tried.
If you want to compare Matheson to any RHD that would be Letang and as much as it scares me, Matheson is one of the few D men that makes Letang look like a defensive genius.
No, this is a thumbs down.
Third Pairing defense Ceci over Johnson?
Again, apples to oranges. This is more like comparing Ceci to Schultz. If we are talking about Schultz of last season this is a win. If you are comparing to a pre-injured Schultz, this is a major thumbs down.
The only way I give Ceci a thumbs down is if I consider his signing blocked signing Benning.
So, I guess I say 2nd thumbs up.
Finally, in Goal; DeSmith over Murray? Is this even a question? Major thumbs down. DeSmith is only a backup on a non-contending team.
In the end I only see 2 thumbs up Kapanen and Ceci and the rest, 5 thumbs down. As you noted in a previous article, JR panicked and signed players to sign players without really thinking everything trough.