Following the Penguins’ inglorious qualifying round defeat at the hands of bottom seed Montreal in August, general manager Jim Rutherford made his direction for the offseason crystal clear.
“This could be a year where we try to get younger but in a way that we feel that we can still win,” Rutherford said. “Bring that new, young energy in.”
It took a while to discern exactly how the venerable GM planned to implement that strategy. But with the makeover complete and the Pens roster more-or-less set, the results are plain to see. JR’s plan was to acquire or sign former high draft picks who, for whatever reasons, hadn’t panned out. In each instance at a favorable rate.
No less than five former first-round picks joined the Pens over the offseason (I’m counting RFA Jared McCann), including one of JR’s own (Kasperi Kapanen). Cody Ceci (15th overall 2012), Mark Jankowski (21st overall 2012) and Mike Matheson (23rd overall 2012) round out the list. For the record, Vancouver took McCann 24th overall in 2014, two slots after the Pens took Kapanen. One of only two first-round picks (Samuel Poulin the other) during Rutherford’s tenure.
Of course, we’ve been dealing our top picks in an effort to add the missing elements that helped contribute to our back-to-back Stanley Cups.
And now? It’s almost as if JR’s trying to retroactively restock the cupboard in one fell swoop.
So who’s the best bet to shine among the former first-round picks? Here’s my purely subjective two cents, for what they’re worth.
Walk on Water
Kasperi Kapanen: The Pens are committed to playing Kapanen on the first line with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. A combination that could dazzle. We all know the 24-year-old Finn can fly. Give him a step and…pfft…he’s gone. Like greased lightning. But Kapanen also possesses some nice finishing skills to go with those wheels. He’s got a quick release, a rapier of a shot and he can pick his spots. Handles the puck pretty well, too, with some shake-and-bake. Kasperi’s got a little sand in his game to boot. I don’t think 25 goals is out of the question. My only (mild) concern? The majority of his goals appear to come off the rush. How will he produce on the cycle?
Mike Matheson: I’m going out on a limb. I think Matheson’s going to be a pleasant surprise. Of course, a great deal will depend on his defense partner, who right now appears to be Ceci. But Matheson’s a terrific skater and who excels at lugging the puck. He shares a lot of Kapanen’s attributes, including an excellent shot and a quick release. The key? Whether assistant coach Todd Reirden can curb Matheson’s tendency to skate himself into trouble and turn the puck over. A flaw that diminished to a degree last season under the watchful eye of Florida coach Joel Quenneville. A trend that, hopefully, will continue.
Tread Water
Jared McCann: I like McCann a lot. Especially since the Pens plan to play him on wing. He can skate, transitions well, and he’s got a wicked shot. A bit of a track record as a goal scorer, too, with 25 goals in his first 76 games with the black and gold. However, a chunk of that production came while skating in a top-six role beside Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Barring injuries or an unforeseen shuffle, McCann won’t be sharing the ice with Sid or Geno a whole lot this season, but rather Jankowski and Evan Rodrigues. Big difference. It remains to be seen if they’ll develop any chemistry…or if his linemates can get him the puck. There’s hope for Rodrigues, who skated alongside Jack Eichel at Boston University. But Jankowski…
Sink
Mark Jankowski: I’m dubious about how well Jankowski will fit. First…there are positives. He plays a fairly straightforward game and drives to the net, something we haven’t seen a whole lot of in the ‘Burgh lately. Once he arrives, he isn’t shy about using his big frame to screen the goalie. Most of his goals are of the garbage variety that stem from plays near the crease. The drawbacks. He doesn’t have a strong shot or great release, isn’t all that creative, nor is he especially handsy in terms of playmaking. Although he covers the ice okay, he isn’t fast. I’m wondering how he’s going to mesh with a pair of fleet wingers in McCann and Rodrigues, although that dynamic worked in spades for the HBK Line.
Cody Ceci: I put Matheson in the Walk on Water section. However, as I mentioned, a lot of that will depend on his defense partner. Which looks to be Ceci. I confess, I probably know the least about the 26-year-old Ottawa native. But from the limited video I’ve watched… Although Ceci sagged to one goal with Toronto last season (a career low) he’s netted as many as 10 goals in a season and does appear to have a decent shot that he can elevate. However, getting into position to use that shot could be a problem. Foot speed may be an issue, and we saw how well that worked for Jack Johnson. And it’s odd that Ceci totaled only eight points with the Maple Leafs while skating a fair amount with the likes of Auston Matthews and William Nylander and paired with offensive stud Morgan Rielly (whose numbers dipped). Too, I just can’t get those ghastly 5-vs-5 shot attempt differentials (minus-342 in 2018-19 and minus-358 in ’17-18) out of my head.
Rick “Long time no hear”!! Lol
Hope you’re well.
First I do think Kapanen will work out well with Crosby and
Guentzel. Playing with Crosby should help him round out
his overall game – If he stays healthy I predict 25-30 goals.
Matheson seems to be the type of player to fit in well with
Sully’s system. People frustrate me when they look at
nothing but the negatives. Matheson coming off a 20pt
season (8g – 12a) and a +/- rating of ( – 1). He also cut his
giveaway numbers in half if he would of played in 81 games.
Letang had 80 giveaways while playing in (2) more games
than Matheson.
Jankowski – I do like the fact he’s a defensive minded Center
and has shown the ability at times to score goals. The thing
that bothers me he’s your 3rd or 4th line center and in 56 games
he had a total of 14 hits “that scares me”.
Ceci – Like you I don’t really know a lot about him. I do like his
size and he’s probably good for 160 or so hits in a full season.
Offensively I think with the Pen’s he could be a 20pt guy. I’m
hoping he can give us some much needed toughness when
clearing out opposing forwards in front of our net.
The big question I have is who gives us any kind of toughness or
grit except for Tanev????? It amazes me that with Horny and
Johnson we were considered one of the softest teams in the NHL.
We got rid of both which I have no problem with at all but you
have to replace their contributions to the team. IMO JR failed
in doing so.
With our top 6 we should waltz into a playoff spot but this team
structured the way it is will again be an early exit come playoff
time.
GO PEN’S
Hello Mike,
So sorry for the delayed response. It’s always good to hear from you and I always look forward to reading your comments.
In watching clips of Jankowski, he doesn’t avoid contact and he willingly ventures into the traffic areas. He’ll post up around the net. It’s just that he doesn’t seem to initiate hits, if that makes any sense. He’s probably not a good enough skater to go running around looking for contact without taking himself out of position. He’s just kind of a no-frills plumber with size.
It does appear that Ceci will put the body on people. But when I searched for his hockey fights to see how he handled his dukes…cue the crickets. He hasn’t had a fight in the NHL…at least none that I can find.
Why doesn’t that surprise me?
Regarding our favorite bone to pick…a total lack of a real physical presence. I know, Mike, I’m truly at a loss. Not to hammer a nail that’s already been driven into the two-by-four, but we all saw the type of teams that went deep into the playoffs. Skilled, yes, but more than able to handle themselves and compete when the going gets rough and the checking gets tight.
About all we have is Sam Lafferty, who’ll hit people, and Anthony Angello, if he makes the team. A big IF. Angello can actually throw a little, although when the other guy returns fire he tends to stop punching…almost like a deer in the headlights.
Oy.
I keep thinking about Washington with Tom Wilson and Garnet Hathaway and Brenden Dillon. When we played the Caps on February 23 (a 5-3 loss), Dillon went right after Evgeni Malkin at the end of the first period. Of course with no retribution.
Geno can handle himself okay…he’s probably the toughest guy on the team…but do you really want him dealing with this crap at this stage of his career?
Absolutely not.
As Other Rick noted a while back, we’re the only team that doesn’t protect its stars. It makes no sense at all.
Which brings me to our coach. Overall, I like Mike Sullivan. But I really feel the no tough guy thing is his design. For that reason alone, I almost want to see us replace him, just so we can get a semblance of physicality back in our lineup.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Great stuff!! It does look like JR is trying to undo some of the lost draft pick pick damage. I never thought of it in that way.
So in my turn I will venture my thoughts on how the off-seasons moves will shake out;
1. Kapanen will be the best of the moves, in the short term but Blomqvist may be the best move long term. In fact, I think there is a possibility that some may forget that we didn’t have to pay a 1st round pick for him and try and justify giving up more than we had to cede.
Over the last 3 seasons Kapanen has not exactly been playing with elite play makers. The Center he played most with has been Matthews but Matthews is a more than a bit selfish – a gifted goal scorer who doesn’t share the puck much. Matthews best 5 on 5 A season has only been 24 and that was the only time in his 4 year career that he tip the 20 mark. Putting Kapanen out there with Sid should put our former 1st round pick in a position to easily score 20 and possibly even close in on 30.
However, I would hope that Sully has the good sense to have read Kingarski. Kingarski has shown that it would be smarter to skate Zucker – Crosby – Kapanen and then Guentzel – Malkin – Rust. Last season was no fluke. Guentzel has a ton of Chemistry with Malkin. Yes Guentzel had good chemistry with Crosby, but it is better with Malkin. Malkin – Guentzel nets about 1 more G/60 than Guentzel – Crosby. Furthermore, Zucker showed absolutely no Chemistry with Malkin but some with Crosby.
Zucker – Malkin – Rust will flat line.
In fact Kingarski has suggested that Zucker may be a mid season trade bait, and I think that is a real possibility, if they can find a taker. As I wrote before, I would have tried to deal him for Risolainen or Pesce. McCann has shown more promise with Crosby and even Malkin, and $5+ mil is a ton to throw on the 3rd line.
Kapanen? Walking on water? Maybe not, just high probability of return.
2 – 3 resigning McCann and Rodrigues.
If Sully plays McCann back up with Crosby, with newcomer Kapanen and allows Guentzel to play with Malkin and Rust, I think the Pens top 6 will be very electric. However, Sully will first have to have the wisdom to recognize McCann’s value with as a Wing, remember how well they played together when McCann first arrived, and then have the intestinal fortitude to move Zucker out of the top 6 even though he is getting $5+ million.
So, McCann’s return is really dependent on Sully.
To a lesser extent, so will Rodrigues’s success be tied to Sully deploying him properly. Rodrigues will be infinitely better suited to 3rd line center. If Caleb’s fave is to succeed it will be there with Zucker as one of his Wings – maybe even recreating a somewhat lesser 3 headed monster.
Treading water/ Yes that could be a fair description.
4. Cody Ceci. Yes, I disagree with you here. Ceci’s numbers were horrible in Ottawa, but aside from their run against the Penguins in the Conference finals in 2016-2017 they haven’t been that strong of a team. in fact they have been down right deplorable since then, so almost every time Ceci took the ice for Ottawa, the players he was going against far better than the players he was playing with.
As for Tor last season, Ceci played better, but I do see where you may be a bit concerned. He was playing for a much more talented team but when I look at the top 5 opposing skaters on the ice with Ceci, I see Pastrnak, Marchand, and Bergeron, and then when I look at his Corsi 5 on 5 when the game is within 1 Goal and it was 50.37%, I start seeing a different player than you do. I see a player who may who could be a middle to bottom pairing D man on an average to contending team.
As for Skating with Nylander and Matthews, neither likes to share the puck. Those 2 only totaled 36 A combined 5 on 5 last season. Even Reilly who you described as an Offensive stud only managed 17 Pnts 5-on-5 (2 G and 15). seeing that, it is understandable that Ceci only had 1 G and 7 A.
The only thing that will keep him from delivering will be pairing him with Give away artist Matheson.
Ceci is not really treading but skating on thin ice. However, he will not be skating on thin ice through any fault of his own, but due to circumstance. Marino and Letang will skate ahead of him on the right side paired with Dumoulin and probably Pettersson, leaving Ceci to skate with the Catastrophe, Matheson. Furthermore he will only cost the team $1.25 mil for 1 yr.
5. Jankowski. Jankowski’s offense has been dropping for 3 straight seasons. This may be in part due to his ever dropping % of O-Zone starts. Last season he only had 60 O-Zone compared 70 D-Zone.
I know you wrote about some web site hailing him as a defensive Center but I just can’t grasp that logic. Last season he was on the ice for 23 GA 5-on-5 but his xGA was only 15.69, the previous season it was 33 Ga vs 29.59 xGa, and 3 seasons ago it was 33 GA vs 32.36 xGA. In each of those 3 seasons the expected GA was lower than the actual. In my book that means he was failing if he was giving up more than expected.
The only good thing is that he is only costing $700k for 1 season and pretty much all of that can be hidden in WBS not if but when he clears waivers.
For me I see Jankowski listing heavily to port.
6-8 Lafferty, Angello, and Gruden. I would list all 3 of these players as having more potential to help this team than Jankowski, and Lafferty and Angello probably will if/(when) Sully and JR get termed. However, since I doubt they will get any chance to play until Sully is gone, they too are listing and in danger of foundering.
9. Matheson. Sorry, Rick I do have to disagree with you over Matheson. If Matheson is paired with Ceci, Ceci will be the one to suffer. Neither of these two D-men would be players of my choosing but Matheson is worse. Matheson may have a great shot, but he is a defensive nightmare far worse than Johnson or Letang.
My greatest fear (particularly for Jarry) is Sully pairing Matheson with Letang. That combo could be fatal. If given an 82 game season together they could approach 300 Gv together, leaving Jarry to face uncountable number of breakaways, odd man breaks and wide open shots from high danger areas.
Matheson did improve last season in his penchant to cough the puck up, but that is only because he really couldn’t get that much worse. In truth, the only reason Matheson’s Gv appeared to be cut in half last season compared to the previous season was cut in half. He still posted his 2nd worst Gv/60 5 on 5.
What is worse is that JR gave up the 1 player willing to go into the dirty areas offensively in exchange for this disaster and the destruction Matheson will bring will reverberate for years to come – 6 total to be exact with the last 3 years costing $6.5 million and starting next season a m-NTC.
Matheson isn’t sinking, he is sunk and a total loss.
Sorry, I was writing too fast and missed completing my thoughts on Matheson.
1) Matheson didn’t get worse because he was pretty much at rock bottom with only one way to go, up.
and
2) Matheson’s ice time was almost cut in half last season so that accounted for the large reduction in Gv. His Gv/60 was the 2nd worst of his career.
The Other Rick
I respectfully disagree with you on a couple of things.
One – I do think Guentzel can pretty much play with anyone and
have success but I do think he and Crosby are a better fit than
he and Malkin. Guentzel needs a set up guy to score goals.
Matheson played 18:02 min per game last year which is going
to be close to the minutes he plays for the Pen’s. If the NHL
would of played a full season he would of cut his giveaway
number by 50%. Also in 2016-17 playing in a full season
he only had 65 giveaways and saw 21:03 min of ice time. I
do think he’s been inconsistent but at 26 he still has time to
grow and I think our system is better suited for his type of
game.
Also, you may disagree with the terms of the trade but Horny
had to go. His body is beat down and its good business to
move him while he has value. My complaint is JR didn’t
replace Horny with the same style of player.
I asked Rick the same question – other than Tanev who gives
anything in terms of toughness / grit?? – Ceci “maybe” but
you need more than that to advance through the playoffs.
Hey Mike,
I 100% agree with you in that trading Hornqvist wasn’t the worst thing in the world. However, not only did the JR show any exit strategy in terms of the grit we lost – as you point out – but we took on more salary in the trade than we gave up, and Matheson will cost $6.5 million per year in real money over the last 3 years of a contract that will be a m-NTC.
Hornqvist was also coming off pf his best Pnts/60 of his career. JR should have been able to do a whole lot better is my only point over Hornqvist.
I can’t answer your question though about who will fill the toughness void. I would like to think that if given the chance Angello could step up, but I don’t see him getting the chance. Maybe Bjorkqvist could too, he appears to be over his injury and leads his team in scoring over in Liiga, but I was under the impression that he was loaned for the duration of Liiga’s season, so he wouldn’t be here until the playoffs at the end of the season.
I hear what you are saying about Guentzel, over the last 3 season skating with Crosby, the combo has scored 3.16 GF/60 when they are on the ice 5-on-5. However, the team has scored 3.84 GF when Malkin and Guentzel are on the ice 5-on-5, that is almost a full GF/60. Now in the brief 10min of 5-on-5 time Malkin and Zucker shared the team did manage to average 5.67 GF but gave up 11.34 GA.
Crosby – Zucker on the other hand were only on the ice for 2.85 GF/60 but they also only were on the ice for 2.53 GA/60. That is still a + in GF/GA.
If we drop Zucker to 3rd line, then I could agree with you about Guentzel – Crosby. However, as long as the team is going to try and force Zucker into a top 6 role on this team, I have to put him with Crosby.
Matheson? He averaged 3.27Gv/60 5-on-5 last season. You are close, that was 65% of what his Gv/60 were last year, but as I wrote above, that only looks good because of how truly awful his 5.03 the previous season was. To put in perspective, at his very worst, which was last season Letang only coughed the puck up 2.92Gv/60 5-on-5. In other words, he did improve but he was so far in the whole that he is still the worst! even after cutting his Gv by 65%.
I am sorry, this is one where we will be on opposite sides. Anything is possible, but the probability of salvaging Matheson has to be approaching zero.
Ceci? I am willing to give him a chance, but I fear he will be given the calamity of trying to mitigate Matheson.
The Other Rick
Just a couple of quick points.
1) Zucker in my opinion is a 30 goal scorer and last year
he would of ended up with close to 30 had he played
a full season. While with the pens for 15 games he
produced a solid 12pts …..6g & 6a. More impressive
is 107 of his 132 career goals have come at even
strength. A penguin weakness for sure. My point
being he’s a Top 6 player.
2) From my understanding JR shopped Horny to every
team in the league and took the best offer. We always
want more but it was inevitable he had to move him.
Look people went crazy when we traded for Schultz
and that turned out well until his injuries mounted.
I just have a good (gut) feeling about Matheson.
3) My biggest concern is toughness – Even with Angello
who I like but for the record he didn’t really assert
himself physically like I was hoping. I know he played
sparingly but he didn’t come across as being a big
hitter. This team is destined for failure.
Hey Mike,
1) My concerns about Zucker are this, his endurance. Looking at his split stats he starts out strong and fades as the season progresses. He has scored 47 pnts in 1027:30 TOI in 65 games played in Oct according to Hockey reference; that comes out to 3.80 Pnts/60. And he is a +14. By January he has scored only 42 points in 1221:46 of TOI in 78 games, or 2.06 Pnts/60 and his +/- drops to 7 over that span. He picks it up again in February after the All Star Break, jumping back up to 46 Pnts in 1123:39 TOI (2.46 Pnts/60) and a +9, only to fade to 8 points 363:59 TOI in 26 games or 1.32 Pnts/60 and a -9.
But to your point about Zucker’s 12 Pnts in 15 Games in Pgh, 8 of those Pnts game in 5 on 5 situations and 7 of those 8 points came while he was on the ice with Crosby. So, if Sully were to deploy him in a top 6, it only makes sense to play him with Crosby. He had 0 G and only 1 A with Malkin.
2) I am not going to dispute you about whether or not JR tried shopping him. He probably did. Not knowing what the other offers were, I cannot truly say one way or the other, but I can’t imagine what offers would have been worse. As I said before, Hornqvist may be old and beat up but he was coming off of his best Pnts/60 5-on-5. If Matheson was the best anyone would offer than it would have been better to hold on to him until the trade deadline. JR took on more in salary than he got rid of and he took on a longer term, back loaded contract with a m-NTC. If Matheson defies the odds and turns it around and becomes the $6.5 million D-man he will get pad over the last 3 years of his contract then JR looks like a genius but I would love to see the odds on that.
When the Penguins traded for Schultz they traded at the trade deadline and gave up a 3rd round pick. Schultz was signed to a 1 yr $3.9 mil contract. The then signed him to a $1.4 mil 1 yr contract, then gave him his big raise after he turned his game around. In his season previous seasons before coming to Pgh his worst turnover season 5-on-5 was 2.47 Gv/60 or almost 1 full less Gv/60 than Matheson last season.
I do hope your gut is right because Matheson is here and there is nothing for it, but I just do not see it. I see a Galchenyuk-esque failure.
3) Angello? I was just spit-balling some thoughts. I would love to see Angello use his physical presence more also. That is why I wanted to see him get the Net – front duty when Hornqvist went down. It would have given him a chance to get his feet wet, or at least see if he had what it took to get in “the Kitchen”.
Probably the biggest thing that is missing from these last 3 Pens teams compared to the 2 Cup teams is that there does not appear to be anyone willing to pay the price. Cole, Bonino, and Kuhnhackl paid the price defensively and Hornqvist paid the toll in the O-zone. However, since those Cup teams, to me all that has donned the B&G is stick wavers in the D-zone and perimeter shooters in the O-zone.
The Other Rick
All good points but as you know I’m not a numbers
guy and I think Zucker’s contributions playing along
side Malkin or Crosby will be substantial.
He has everything you want in a player – speed, skill, Hockey IQ and scoring ability and he surprised me with his willingness to mix it up.
The Other Rick
I wanted to mention Zucker – I disagree with your assessment and
think Zucker played well considering the season was cut short and
he was still getting acclimated to his new team. I look for him to
have a big year.
I’m more concerned about Rust sustaining his level of play from
last year – could be a little bit of fools gold.
“Jankowski. Jankowski’s offense has been dropping for 3 straight seasons”
Buzz. Wrong as usual. He’s had 25-32-7 points in the last three years. But don’t let the facts get in the way of good rant. It is hilarious how you can have such absolute opinions about plays who likely knew virtually nothing about a few weeks ago.
Stratton,
Correct you are wrong as usual, because you do not look before you leap. You read half of what is written and then jump in without even knowing what is being talked about.
The above discussion about Jankowski that Rick and I have been talking about Deals with team Goals GF/60 vs xGF/60 minutes.
Last season the Flames only scored 1.24 G/60 when Jankowski was on the ice. That isn’t going to win anyone a hockey game and that compares with the fat that Calgary should have scored 2.05 GF/60 (xGF/60).
Your desire to argue blinds you to all else.
Stratton, your ego is far in excess of your skill set.