As part of my never-ending argument with fellow PenguinPooper, Other Rick, over the comparative merits of the Penguins’ goalies, I decided to take a gander at what I’ll refer to as crunch-time stats as a way of evaluating how they perform in the clutch.
It’s been my assertion that Matt Murray yields an inordinate number of goals at crucial times. So I decided to put my perception to the test.
Before I do, I want to be clear. I don’t have a vendetta against Murray, as Other Rick might suggest, nor am I trying to tear him down or impugn his character. He’s won us two Cups. By all accounts he’s a good guy and a better teammate who’s working hard to overcome his present shortcomings and difficulties. And he has shown improvement of late.
I am trying to provide a clear and objective look at Murray’s performance this season, which I’ve maintained all along is checkered at best. Or at the very least, not up to the admittedly high bar he established for himself early in his career.
To digress, few things can drain the life from a team more than an untimely goal. So for the basis of my analysis, I decided to tally the number goals Murray and tandem-mate Tristan Jarry have allowed early and late in periods, along with game-tying and go-ahead goals yielded, to help determine how the goalies perform when it matters most.
What constitutes an early or late-period goal? I arbitrarily decided on a three-minute time frame at the beginning and end of regulation periods, and one-minute intervals for overtime. Go-ahead goals allowed include game-opening goals where the opposition scores first.
First, the early and late period goals:
| Goalie | 1st Period | 2nd Period | 3rd Period | Overtime |
Total |
||||
| Early | Late | Early | Late | Early | Late | Early | Late | ||
| Jarry | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Murray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 |
Keep in mind, Murray has played 259 more minutes than Jarry…roughly four more games. Taking that into account, Murray allows .779 early/late period goals per game, compared to Jarry’s more palatable mark of .598.
It’s interesting to note that Jarry’s more susceptible to giving up early/late period goals during the first half of games, while Murray tends to fade in the back half of games. He’s especially wobbly late in second periods.
Next, I’ll look at game-tying and go-ahead goals allowed:
| Goalie | Game-Tying Goals | Go-Ahead Goals | Total |
| Jarry | 7 | 15 | 22 |
| Murray | 11 | 24 | 35 |
On this count, Jarry far outshines Murray, especially when it comes to yielding backbreaking go-ahead goals. On a per game basis, Murray yields 1.44 tying or go-ahead goals, Jarry 1.1.
It supports my argument that Jarry should continue to receive the bulk of the starts, unless his performance declines sharply and/or Murray catches a little hidden vigorish and goes on an unexpected roll.
Let’s hope coach Mike Sullivan resists the urge to play favorites and continues to do what’s best for the team.
Rick
All good points / comparisons – Im also glad to see the numbers match up
with my eye test. For a split second there I thought I was loosing my touch!! lol
As far as Simon and Galchenyuk both definitely have their warts. I’ve never
been a fan of Simon’s but I would caution the Pen’s on making any drastic
moves that would affect this Pen’s team chemistry “Its special”.
Thats all I got – Go Pen’s
Thanks Mike.
Although right on cue Jarry didn’t play his best game last night, allowing two tying goals and a go-ahead goal. (Me and my big mouth.)
Still, he stiffened with the game on the line (five saves in OT) and was superb in the shootout (seven stops on eight shots) including a big glove save on Carl Soderberg at the end.
Of course, there’s no way of knowing. But in my mind, we don’t win that game with Murray in goal.
Rick
Rick,
I have never argued that Murray had a great November or December. I have only argued that all goalies have ups and downs. Jarry had a stellar December with 3 SOs but have you checked his last 3 games, he is trending downward 1-1-1 w/sv% 0.906, 0.912, 0.912.
Murray on the other hand is trending upward 3-0-0 w/Sv% of 0.917, 0.929, 0.903
And Rick, the simple fact that you keep bringing this up tells me that you do have something against Murray, just like I keep bringing up Sully, JR, and Simon. The difference is I admit it. And even though I admit I don’t particular fall under their spells, I am hoping that I am wrong for the teams sake, since not even Simon appears to be moving on.
Hey Other Rick,
The point I’ve been trying to make all along is that Murray gives up goals at really bad times, a trend that actually dates back to last spring.
And, yes, maybe I do have a bias against him. I just don’t think he’s reliable with the game on the line. As I mentioned in my response to Mike, Jarry didn’t have one of his better games last night. Yet he stiffened when it mattered most…in OT and in the shootout…and contributed heavily to the win.
I just don’t feel as confident with Murray in those types of situations. And I think my little ‘study’ reinforces my trepidation to an extent.
Rick
Sorry Rick but not really,
Your study does not control for a host of potential confounding variables. Your numbers don’t lie, numbers are incapable of lying but the story they tell is not a conclusive story to support your bias.
As an example lets look at the team since the Christmas break
Matt Murray has played 3 games with a total 14:39 leading by 1 goal. In that 14 minutes + he has faced 20 shots, 9 of them were considered HD shots which equal 81.91 shots per 60 minutes total shots on goal 36.86 HD shots/60. He has gotten NO protection from his teammates in that time.
Tritan Jarry on the other hand has played 6 games with 53:56 minutes leading by 1 goal but has only faced the same amount of total shots, 20 and even less HD shots. 6. Looking at that in relative terms it gets pretty darn startling; that is 22.31 Shots/60 vs Murray’s 81.91 and 6.69 HD Shots/60 to Murray’s 36.86. That is night and day my friend.
Murray’s Sv% under that barrage? 0.900
Jarry’s Sv% against that trickle? 0.850
The average shot distance also are disparate;
Murray faces an average shot 27.60′
mean while not only does the D circle the wagons for Jarry and cut down all shots, the ones that do get through come from 40.90′
To really understand the true narrative I would also have to look at who all the shooters really were because as I think Mike mentioned here, there is a difference in shooters. And let’s not forget Simon proves that quite often with the number of open nets he misses.
So your numbers are an interesting starting point, but my numbers show a different story. There is far more detail to them.
Murray has won 2 – Cups, he has stood on top of the world staring down the best shooters on the largest stage, but struggled in Nov and Dec this year and Oct and Nov last year.
Jarry has never won a Cup and a horrible 2 game stint with the big club last season before being sent back down to WBS but had a stellar Dec this season.
Hockey like all sports is about what have you done for me lately. Murray was up for a long time – 2 years but has had a couple of valleys since, but also peaks. He would appear to be on the rise again, since Christmas, at least a better option that Jarry.
Jarry had about a month or more of playing good hockey, now he too is experiencing a down turn.
Am I down on Jarry? NO, in fact, I would have rather written nothing on this subject rather than say something negative about Jarry right now. I only did so to illustrate the baselessness of your prejudice.
I was glad when the team could boast Murray and Fleury. I am glad that they can now boast Murray and Jarry or if your prejudice needs it, Jarry and Murray. Play the hot one and ride him til he goes cold.
One important question that no one ever brings up: During the two cup runs all you Murray supporters keep mentioning, how many series did he win by himself (i.e., without Fleury playing at all)? My memory is only one.