Penguins Update: Goalie Crunch-Time Comparison

As part of my never-ending argument with fellow PenguinPooper, Other Rick, over the comparative merits of the Penguins’ goalies, I decided to take a gander at what I’ll refer to as crunch-time stats as a way of evaluating how they perform in the clutch.

It’s been my assertion that Matt Murray yields an inordinate number of goals at crucial times. So I decided to put my perception to the test.

Before I do, I want to be clear. I don’t have a vendetta against Murray, as Other Rick might suggest, nor am I trying to tear him down or impugn his character. He’s won us two Cups. By all accounts he’s a good guy and a better teammate who’s working hard to overcome his present shortcomings and difficulties. And he has shown improvement of late.

I am trying to provide a clear and objective look at Murray’s performance this season, which I’ve maintained all along is checkered at best. Or at the very least, not up to the admittedly high bar he established for himself early in his career.

To digress, few things can drain the life from a team more than an untimely goal. So for the basis of my analysis, I decided to tally the number goals Murray and tandem-mate Tristan Jarry have allowed early and late in periods, along with game-tying and go-ahead goals yielded, to help determine how the goalies perform when it matters most.

What constitutes an early or late-period goal? I arbitrarily decided on a three-minute time frame at the beginning and end of regulation periods, and one-minute intervals for overtime. Go-ahead goals allowed include game-opening goals where the opposition scores first.

First, the early and late period goals:

Goalie	1st Period		2nd Period		3rd Period		Overtime		Total
	Early	Late	Early	Late	Early	Late	Early	Late
Jarry	3	2	3	2	1	1	0	0	12
Murray	1	1	2	8	3	3	0	1	19

Keep in mind, Murray has played 259 more minutes than Jarry…roughly four more games. Taking that into account, Murray allows .779 early/late period goals per game, compared to Jarry’s more palatable mark of .598.

It’s interesting to note that Jarry’s more susceptible to giving up early/late period goals during the first half of games, while Murray tends to fade in the back half of games. He’s especially wobbly late in second periods.

Next, I’ll look at game-tying and go-ahead goals allowed:

Goalie	Game-Tying Goals	Go-Ahead Goals	Total
Jarry	7	15	22
Murray	11	24	35

On this count, Jarry far outshines Murray, especially when it comes to yielding backbreaking go-ahead goals. On a per game basis, Murray yields 1.44 tying or go-ahead goals, Jarry 1.1.

It supports my argument that Jarry should continue to receive the bulk of the starts, unless his performance declines sharply and/or Murray catches a little hidden vigorish and goes on an unexpected roll.

Let’s hope coach Mike Sullivan resists the urge to play favorites and continues to do what’s best for the team.