“I think they should cut their losses and trade him.”
I uttered those very words to Other Rick sometime in late October. At the time the subject of my displeasure, newly acquired Penguins forward Dominik Kahun, had tallied two measly assists in 11 games following an uninspired preseason. Indeed, he’d looked almost singularly unimpressive while toiling mostly in the bottom six.
Another astute observation on my part…not.
Almost from the moment I uttered those words, Kahun executed an abrupt about-face. Over his past 37 games he’s piled up a highly respectable 10 goals and 15 assists for 25 points. Better than a 20-goal, 50-point clip when projected over a full season.
It’s safe to say he’s found his niche with the black and gold after arriving in a midsummer trade for Olli Maatta. In fact, following his sluggish start I think quicksilver forward’s been better than advertised.
He’s closely resembled the player I recalled from last January, when the Pens hosted Chicago. I listened to the game on radio and kept hearing a name that sounded like “Kunitz,” as in former Pen Chris who was winding down his career with the Blackhawks. Then I realized the name was actually Kahun. By the sounds of it, the Czech Republic native was heavily involved each time he took the ice.
More recently, the “Big Kahuna” (my corny stab at a nickname) stepped into the gaping void created by Jake Guentzel’s untimely season-ending injury and blended almost seamlessly with new linemates Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust.
“He thinks the game at such a high level,” Rust told Chris Adamski of the Tribune-Review. “He’s able to make those tight-little-space plays and find open ice. Any time you have a guy like that on your line, it kind of buys you more time to either get yourself to open space or to make a play.
“Also, he works (hard). Any time you have any linemate who works that hard, it makes everything a little easier for everybody else.”
Speaking of Rust, Kahun appears to share many of same attributes. He can really fly, works extremely hard as Rust noted, is creative and has a knack for spotting openings and exploiting them. Although his skill level makes him ideally suited for the top six, he can slot up and down the lineup a la “Rusty.” Another one of those Swiss-Army knife type players (Jared McCann and Brandon Tanev also come to mind) who are so valuable to a team.
That’s why Kahun’s concussion…suffered during Sunday’s scorching comeback victory over Boston could really hurt. The Pens don’t have anybody to effectively replace his skill, speed and versatility.
Let’s hope the concussion’s a mild one…and Dom returns to the lineup soon. We really need him.
Hot Shots
Phil’s and Other Rick’s recent comments prompted me to take a gander at an intriguing stat…5-on-5 Shot Attempts Differential. I confess I found it fascinating.
Guentzel tops the Pens with a shot differential of 139, followed by Kris Letang (128), Dominik Simon (117), Malkin (114) and Brian Dumoulin (107).
The latter’s count is particularly impressive, given that “Dumo” achieved his differential in only 23 games. By contrast, Sidney Crosby has a shot differential of 78 in 21 games. Excellent, but nowhere near Dumoulin’s mark.
I have to confess, Simon’s shot differential impressed me, too. Let’s face it, he’s much-maligned in these parts and especially on PenguinPoop. But it does shed significant light on his overall effectiveness, and why coach Mike Sullivan (and Crosby) value him so highly.
Others I found surprising? Marcus Pettersson, who I rate as having a so-so year, sits at a solid 75 while wunderkind John Marino is well down the ladder at 26. I thought Rust (51), McCann (32) and Kahun (30) would have larger differentials. Ditto Tanev, who’s even.
On the flip side? Disappointing Alex Galchenyuk (-28), rookie Sam Lafferty (-39) and Jack Johnson (-44) bring up the rear, along with frequent call-up Joseph Blandisi (-50).
An interesting look at who’s driving possession and who’s not.
MID SEASON AWARDS – I know this doesn’t pertain to the article but thought
it would be beneficial to post.
ST. LOUIS — The Professional Hockey Writers Association voted on 10 midseason awards for the third consecutive season, and Thursday’s results show that Mike Sullivan is the early favorite for the Jack Adams Award, awarded each year to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success.
Sullivan is followed by John Tortorella and Craig Berube in the Jack Adams voting.
The PHWA does not vote on the actual Jack Adams Award at the end of the season — that is done by the National Hockey League Broadcasters Association.
The rest of the results of the PHWA’s midseason awards, as voted on by 117 writers from all 31 chapters is as following:
Hart Trophy – to the player adjudged to be most valuable to his team.
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
2. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
3. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
Norris Trophy – to the defenseman who demonstrates the greatest all-round ability in the position.
1. John Carlson, Washington Capitals
2. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators
3. Dougie Hamilton, Carolina Hurricanes
Selke Trophy – to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
1. Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers
2. Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
3. Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues
Calder Trophy – to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition.
1. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
2. Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
3. Victor Olofsson, Buffalo Sabres
Lady Byng Trophy – to the player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability.
1. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
2. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues
Vezina Trophy – to the goaltender adjudged to be the best at his position.
1. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
2. Ben Bishop, Dallas Stars
3. Darcy Kuemper, Arizona Coyotes
Jim Gregory GM of the Year Award – to the General Manager adjusted to have contributed most to his team’s success.
1. Joe Sakic, Colorado Avalanche
2. John Chayka, Arizona Coyotes
3. Doug Armstrong, St. Louis Blues
Rod Langway Award – to the defenseman who best excels in the defensive aspect of the game.
1. Jaccob Slavin, Carolina Hurricanes
2. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Roman Josi, Nashville Predators
Comeback Player of the Year Award – to the player who returned to a previous high level of performance that was interrupted by subpar play, long-term injury or major illness.
1. William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs
2. Anthony Duclair, Ottawa Senators
3. Max Pacioretty, Vegas Golden Knights
Thanks Mike,
I did see the Jack Adams stuff, but I didn’t see anything about the other awards.
I may not be a Sullivan fan but realistically he has to be given consideration. As much as I don’t like Tortorella deserve to be on that short list. He has his FA decimated back in the Wild Card hunt. Beube, he does have his Blues still riding high and looking like a possible repeat team. They all look like good candidates but I may want to find a way to put Tocchet’s hat somewhere in that group, not sure where. It looks like he is doing a good job bringing the Coyote’s back from the brink and get them into a playoff position.
The rest of the season will tell.
Unfortunately with all of the injuries, no Penguins player really is in a good position for hardware this year.
Thanks Mike. Great stuff!
I’m a little baffled as to why Jim Rutherford isn’t in the hunt for GM of the year. But I think the league tries to spread awards around. And with JR going into the Hall of Fame…
I still think he and Sullivan deserve recognition for the Pens’ incredible turnaround. Especially with all the injuries to key personnel.
Player-wise, I think Malkin deserves to be in the mix for Comeback Player of the Year.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Great stuff, Kahun is a huge loss, hopefully Kahun makes a full recovery. I hate the idea of them trying to work Galchenyuk in on Malkin’s line, but there aren’t a lot of options at this point.
Tanev is a machine. Not a lot was said about it last game, but Tanev standing up Pasterquak (sp?) at the blue line last game is what led to the game winning goal. Also, I believe the Penguins did a great job of standing up to the Bruins and won most of the battles.
On the whole Simon thing… I know tOR inflated his Simon’s offensive zone starts below, I’m sure by accident. Simon really has 61.2% offensive zone starts.
Other great stats for Simon is that he is #3 on the team in amount of takeaways and #1 on the team in takeaways compared to giveaways. He is a puck control guy.
Crosby has only played 21 of the 49 games Simon has played and Simon hasn’t been on Crosby’s line the whole time Crosby has been playing. Simon has put these numbers up on his own without Crosby or Guentzel.
Simon passes my eye test. Watch Simon in the offensive zone non stop getting the puck and throwing perfect passes to wide open players, especially defensive players.
If people don’t see that Simon does an above average job filling in a roster spot as a minimum wage role player so the Pens can have more high value skill players, I can’t help them.
I am assuming you are looking at Hockey References Stats, where they just put out a number and ask you to believe it.
Try looking at Natural Stat Trick. Natural Stat Trick puts the raw numbers out there and allows you to back check their math. 155 O Zone starts 58 D zone starts. 155/(155+58)=72.77
My numbers are very, very accurate. Before casting derisions it is a good idea to back check.
tOR,
Hockey reference counts even strength numbers, not just the 5 on 5 like natural stat trick. It includes 4 on 4 and 3 on 3. Which is included in the shot differential on NHL.com that Rick used above.
So you were comparing apples to oranges to make your point. Your number are very accurate if you wanted to make an apple look better than an orange. I’m sure you weren’t trying to do that though.
No Phil,
Hockey Reference has an Ev Strength Stat and a 5 on 5 Stat.
I quoted 5 on 5, look below, when you wrote above about 61.2, I looked at several different sites to see where you got the 61.2; the only place I could find that stat was Hockey Reference 5 on 5 – not Ev Strength.
Therefore, I started talking about 5 on 5. You wondered where my 5 on 5 numbers came from and looked at Hockey Reference. You may have thought you were looking at Ev Strength stats and were trying to compare your oranges to my apples, but you were in fact comparing apples to apples. Or you did try and compare apples to apples. looked at the right data but now a day and lack-luster performance by our Pens later are making that mistake now.
When I saw your comment, I wanted to back check myself, to see if I had made a mistake, so I looked. Hockey reference is still quoting Simon’s OZ% start at 60.9 while Natural Stat Trick lists it as 72.15. Simon’s current Hockey Reference Ev Strength OZ% is listed 0.1 lower at 60.8
Since they do not list raw numbers to back check their data, I can’t compare the 2 sites. It looks like the 2 sites are on different pages.
Hockey-reference is ALL even strength. NHL.com is ALL even strength. Apples to apples.
Natural Stat trick is only 5 ON 5, or oranges. You quoted Natural Stat Trick oranges to Rick’s NHL.com stat apples.
It’s that simple.
Look again Phil, Rick B’s Quote is;
“Phil’s and Other Rick’s recent comments prompted me to take a gander at an intriguing stat…5-on-5 Shot Attempts Differential. I confess I found it fascinating.” That is why I talked about 5 on 5.
Also, look again at NHL.com, they quote 5 on 5 SAT stats, both as Percentages and as +/- differential
The Header on NHL.com Reads “SAT Counts (5v5, since 2009-10)” for Shot differential.
As I wrote elsewhere here to Rick, I am by profession a Scientist, I read research all the time (Stats). I always look to compare Apples to Apples and Oranges to Oranges and am always mindful of confounding variables, hence my discussions here on influencing factors such as zone starts, situation factors (Leading/Trailing), line mates, opponents you skate against. I am very meticulous about stuff like that.
Hey Phil,
I feel like I keep repeating myself. But this team’s grit and character are off the charts. Even guys who aren’t overly physical work hard and battle and compete.
I do wish we had a Kreider-type forward to give us a power element. And I wish that someone could handle their dukes well enough to be at least a little bit of a deterrent. But the latter really is picking nits on my part.
This group really competes and, considering they don’t have a heavy, stands up for themselves pretty well.
I see a lot of the things you see in Simon, too. He hustles, possesses some good instincts and subtle puck skills. I think he’s an effective complimentary player, especially when he’s skating with guys like Sid. My lone lament is that he doesn’t seem to find the open seams or, when he does, be able to finish consistently enough.
Having said that, I think he’s shown improvement in that area of late. His goal against the Bruins was a thing of beauty…a goal-scorer’s goal.
Rick
Sorry Rick,
Shot differential alone doesn’t impress me. There are many confounding variables that need accounted for. For example Offensive/Defensive Zone starts (if you start in the attacking zone you should have a better differential).
Others, Shot vs Shot Attempt differential. HDCF differential (not all Shots represent a good scoring opportunity). What the score is (many teams go into a shell and are willing to give up perimeter shots but protect theHD areas). Who your line mates are, who the opposition was and the grand daddy of them all, Goal Differential.
So, the big question I have is why does Dominik Simon have a high 5 on 5 Shot differential, it is even above 50% on HDCF% differential, but his 5 on 5 goal differential is 23rd on the team at 48.28. Tanev and Galchenyuk are the only 2 regulars with worse 5 on 5 G differential. But in Tanev’s case he only had 34.00% offensive zone starts while Simon had a 72.77% O-Zone start.
You’re right, Other Rick. Stats do have a tendency to distort when taken standalone and/or out of context.
What was the quote Mark Twain popularized? “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
I won’t argue that there are all kinds of mitigating factors, especially in a sport like hockey. Offensive/defensive zone starts among them.
Still, I do find 5-on-5 shot Attempts Differential interesting. And it does tell me in a general way who’s on the ice when we’re controlling the puck and carrying the play and who’s not.
Rick
Hey Rick,
I am not poo-pooing the the 5 on 5 stat, I like all stats. Any single stat can be a good starting point to look deeper.
And in Simon’s case, I too find his 5 on 5 Shot differential interesting, and then when I start digging deeper, looking at other stats, to make sense of it, it only makes that player look worse and worse. The Shot differential becomes easily understood when adding in the O-Zone vs D-Zone starts. It still seems okay when looking at the HDCF stats, since the HDCF% is still on the + side. When looking at who he skates with starts to get interesting, particularly when subtracting out TOI with Crosby. And then when looking at his GF differential, the most important stat of all, since the game is about scoring more goals not getting more shots, the stat really falls apart; How can a guy be on the ice for one of the highest Shot differentials but be among the worst for regular Fs (maybe the worst now after he bought a -2 last night) in G Differential. In fact when a team has such a high team + G differential and he is one of the few with a (-) G differential, that becomes a serious stat to look at, more important than G differential.
Looking at the G differential, O-Zone to D-Zone starts makes the Shot differential nothing more than an excuse to give out Quality Ice time and Line mates based on Favorites not Merit.
Hey Rick,
Just me again.
You peaked my curiosity. You have started me trying to understand how Simon could have such a high Shot differential at 5 on 5 but still have a negative Goal differential on a team that has a significant positive Goal differential under the same circumstances.
So, as I said, one stat leads to another for me, to try and understand what is going on (as you know I am a scientist by trait and profession).
I decided to look at O-Zone Face Offs to O-Zone Starts ratio and then compared it to the D-Zone corollary. My logic – If you are tying the puck up with zone time and getting chances, there would be a high FO to Start ratio.
For Simon 257 FOs/158 Starts was 1.63 The team mean for regulars was 1.75, so Simon was below the average but he was within the SD so, not horribly so. Conversely, Defensively, Simon’s 163 D-Zone FOs/61 D-Zone starts was 2.34 with a team average of 2.17 (Again, on the wrong side of the mean but within a SD).
I am not saying that this is proof positive, other factors may confound, but there is significant reason to think that Simon is close to a 1 and done in the O-Zone, despite our perception that he cycles well, while having a significantly more difficult time exiting his own zone once the opponents get it in there.
If Simon lines are keeping the puck in the attacking zone, they aren’t taking much advantage of that time. They are just skating the perimeter and not penetrating the defense..
Turning to Shot Attempts per O-Zone starts would seem to bear this out. Simon’s 381 team Shots For per 158 O-Zone Starts was 2.41 vs the team average of 3.10 (at the bottom end of the normal range). In the meantime once again the Shots Against per Defensive starts for Simon was on the wrong end (336 SA/61 D-Zone starts for a ratio of 5.51). The Average here was 3.73. This time Simon was out of the normal range of 4.95.
In other words, while Simon is on the ice opponents may only tend to get more Zone time but they get significant chances when they are in the Pens end, hence the Simon’s negative +/- and negative 5 on 5 Goal differential.
Now after last nights -2 performance the only regular Forward with a worse +/- or goal differential than Simon is Galchenyuk (The guy we got in exchange for Kessel.)
As I mentioned to you yesterday, I agree, the Simon goal against Boston was a really good looking goal, but as Tony T mentioned last night when we were talking about that ersatz Winger, even a blind Squirrel finds a nut once in a while. Only scoring 18 goals in 3 season despite about half of your ice time with Crosby is hardly a resume builder. Warren Young got 40 Gs ikn one season and a fat contract off of Detroit that he could never live up to on Lemieux’s LW. Simon only has 18 across 2 1/2 season with Crosby. There has to be at least 1 or 2 players in WBS that can do better. Simon may be less than $1 million a year but he still isn’t all that great of a bargain, not when there is probably others that can do more for less.