Penguins Update: Rating Rutherford’s Moves (2019-20)

1. Hey Rick,

   Did you see the article by PHN where JR said they will be giving Nolan a look during camp?

   Bigger question, even if JR pressures Sully to keep him on the NHL roster, will he get playing time, or sit the bench? Even Kingaski acknowledge that even if he gets an NHL contract, the likelihood of him seeing more than an eyedropper full of TOI is really low.

   Just throwing that out there.

2. Hey Rick and Mike,

   If you haven’t done so yet, read Pgh Hockey Now “Can Penguins Roster Handle the Compressed, Series-Style Schedule?” It doesn’t completely support your (our) Lack of physicality complaints but certainly opens the door for the discussion and highlights what you/we have bemoaned for years.

   I do love the quote, “Against teams such as New York and Buffalo Sabres, the Penguins’ speed and grit should be advantageous.

   However, against tougher teams such as the Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, and New York Islanders, the Penguins will be the bug, not the windshield.”

   1. Hey Other Rick,

      I did see that article and was going to note it as well. It only seems to underscore our concerns about our lack of size and physicality.

      If, and it’s a big if, Lafferty and Angello (and Poulin?) wind up skating a fairly regular shift. then we’ll have at least a degree of those elements in the lineup. But given Sullivan’s aversion to that type of player, I’m not holding my breath…

      Rick

3. Hey Other Rick,

   I’m going to stir the pot…and squirt a little gasoline on the fire.

   There are a couple of interesting articles about Kris Letang on other blogs. Both make for an eye-opening read and might make us rethink our oft-times negative opinion of No. 58.

   Pensburgh: Will 2021 be the year the Penguins finally manage Kris Letang’s workload?

   Pittsburgh Hockey Now: Offseason Changes: the 5 Penguins Issues You Can Ignore

   I thought this statement from the Pensburgh article…backed up by numerous charts depicting a variety of advanced stats…was especially interesting.

   “With Letang on the bench, the Pens are essentially a league average or worse team in terms of generating shots and goals. With no. 58 on the ice, Pittsburgh is beyond elite at both.’

   I’ll await your incoming missile…lol

   Rick

   1. Hey Rick,

      Hockey is a game of out scoring your opponent.

      The rolling average for Even Strength (EV) Team Goals For per 60 min (TGF/60) 5 on 5 among Penguins Defensemen according to Natural Stat Trick (Pensburg used a 3yr rolling avg so that is why I am too)

      1. Oleksiak (3.22), 2. Dumoulin (3.03), 3. Letang (2.93), 4. Marino (2.84), 5. Cole (2.83), 6. Pettersson (2.67), 7. Maatta (2.47), 8. Hunwick (2.3), 9. J. Johnson (2.13), 10. Trotman (2.12)

      So, in terms of TGF Letang still appears to have some value. Only Oleksiak, whom the front office didn’t deem worthy and Dumoulin are on the ice for more GF. There appears to be a pretty fair drop off from Oleksiak to Dumoulin but from Dumoulin down to Cole the numbers are relatively even. There is no real drop off until at least Pettersson at 6th, some may argue Maatta at 7th.

      Since Dumoulin actually is better than Letang and almost always paired with Letang, how much does Dumoulin have to do with Letang’s offense?

      Defensively over the last 3 years Letang’s EV Team Goals Against per 60 min (TGA/60) 5 on 5 is 2nd worst among defensemen (2.82). Matt Hunwick was the only defensemen less capable of protecting his net than Letang (3.06).

      Turning that into a +/- Letang is only a +0.11/60 min EV 5 on 5. Hardly worth the volume of TOI he gets per game, nor worth the $$$$ he eats up in Cap space. Furthermore, in games where the Pens lose the battle of the Special teams, they will lose the game with pedestrian 5 on 5 stats like that.

      I don’t like talking bad about him. He is one of the few players with sand on this team, but he is not the hockey god that the team makes him out to be. I would have moved on from he a few years back when his trade value would have been higher. I may have been able to garner a top pick for him then.

      1. Wow, Other Rick.

         I must say I’m impressed with your study. Excellent work, and you certainly put things into perspective. Interesting that only Hunwick did a poorer job of keeping pucks out of our net.

         Well done!

         Rick

4. Hey Rick,

   With all the maneuvering there was certainly lots to try and grade.

   The Maatta/Kahun trade; had Sully actually used Kahun and JR not traded him, this may have been an A+ trade and a possibly (given his youth) a bridge to a Penguins return. But alas, Sully never deployed the kid properly, never showed any of the confidence he gave Rust, Sheary, Kuhnhackl, etc, when winning Cups. So for what limited contributions he was able to make in the TOI Sully, grudgingly doled out to him, I am sorry, I only give the trade a C+.

   Kessell/Galchenyuk trade? Sorry, this is a decided F. I am not saying that I would want Kessell and more precisely his contract back on this team. I say this is an F because Kessell was coming off one of his best seasons. He was even one of the few players to actually put out in one of the most uninspired playoffs I ever witnessed. Perhaps, only last season’s qualifying round, prior to the playoffs was the only less inspiring performance. Unfortunately, the pathetically unprofessional complaining about Kessell in the media – for two seasons, displaying an absolute lack of leadership by blaming the RW for all the team’s ills destroyed any trade value.

   Also, I am not sold on Zucker or P-OJ. Zucker has a serous track record of fading across the marathon of a season – putting up his best numbers at the beginning of the season inexorably fading at the finish line. With Kessell on the roster the team never missed the playoffs, without him, but with Zucker, they failed to qualify for the playoffs, while Az actually got into the 1st round.

   P-OJ, hmm, with a different coach and GM, maybe. However, with Dumoulin, Pettersson, Matheson, and Riikola ahead of him and Dumoulin without a doubt the best LHD on the team and the financial investment (which appears to be a serious qualifier to get TOI) put into Pettersson and Matheson, and with JRs penchant for throwing away kids, P-OJ may never get the chance to try and redeem something from the trade. Odds are fairly high that he will get traded for a veteran at the trade deadline by the Penguins version of Abbott and Costello.

   Marino for a 6th round pick – certainly, a steal but I am not going to give it an A+. There is no doubt he showed tons of promise, but he is not yet a topflight D-man, just a promising one. And 2 seasons ago we were all hailing the McCann trade as JR redemption. But now there is no certainty that he will still be on the roster come Apr, May, whatever. If Marino does not pull a Pettersson or McCann and not only doesn’t regress but builds on last year, I may eventually give this trade an A. For now, I only give this a B and that is because a 6th round pick is almost like getting him for free.

   Martinsen for Gudbranson – sorry, I give this a D at best, really an F. Gudbranson had a decent and the Penguins have no assets left from this deal.

   Zucker/Galchenyuk – as above, I am not sold on Zucker, but Galchenyuk was a complete dud. Giving up Addison may or may not hurt the team but the 1st pick, that is a killer. Unless the team wins the Cup and Zucker is a major contributor, this is a C trade for me.

   Barber, Varone/Blandisi, Lucchini – yep a C for swapping spare parts.

   Marleau – Hindsight is 20/20 but so, I may agree that it was a D, but I understand the thought behind it.

   Cheary and Rodrigues/Kahun, sorry this is decidedly an F. Kahun was a contributor, Rodrigues was effectively unused, but Sheary is an oxygen thief, only a fraction above Simon in contribution.

   Signings;

   Ruhwedel and Trotman, Cs, pay them nearly nothing but neither more than an insurance policy.

   Tanev, started off strong, but contributions waned across the season. I understand peoples desire to give this a B but for me a C, particularly with the contract lasting 6 seasons

   Agozzino and Noessen, Cs for me. They didn’t cost the team much but when called upon they kept the team competitive until Sully’s veterans returned and the team fell apart.

   Sorry for me, JR gets a C-. When the smoke cleared from all of his wheeling and dealing, about the only thing the team may is a Marino (if he doesn’t follow McCann and Pettersson) and Zucker (who will no doubt start of strong again but fade again as GP mount and rest becomes a rare commodity.

   1. Rick & The Other Rick

      Not even sure where to start. Hope you guys are well. Looking forward
      to the season getting underway!! Prayer we don’t have a delay.

      The Other Rick

      1) Zucker – Your claim that he tends to fade may be accurate but
      he’s never had the opportunity to play with (2) players the
      caliber of Crosby and Malkin.

      Rick

      1) Zucker – Price was steep to get him but I wasn’t a huge Addison
      fan and Galchenyuk never fit in. It really comes down to giving
      up a 1st round pick for a Top 6 forward. B+

      The Other Rick

      2) Kessel trade was a no brainer – i know your not crazy about the
      return but personally i would of taken a “warm” six-pack to get
      Phil the Thrill out of town.

      Rick

      2) Kessel – Totally agree with you on this one. He had to go and I’m
      not sure how many takers there were for his services. B+

      The Other Rick

      3) Marino deal was a “Homerun” – Even if his play levels off next
      season he’s a Top 4 Defenseman just with his intangibles alone
      and I see him becoming more of a factor offensively.

      Rick

      3) Marino – Big time move by JR & Company. A+

      The Other Rick

      4) Kahun – I was also a fan but theirs something missing with this kid.
      (3) teams in 2yrs and a total of (5) hits in 56 games. I’m over the hill
      but I could actually stumble into (5) hits. It will be interesting to see
      how he fairs in Edmonton.

      Rick

      4) Kahun – Loved his speed and potential skill set but i didn’t see him
      as a Top 6 forward. This goes back to my theory that a player like
      Kahun is either top 6 or he has to go. Not a 3rd or 4th line player.
      C+ – Sheary and Rodrigues are non-factors.

      The Other Rick

      5) Tanev – IMO the Pen’s couldn’t pay him enough. JR gets an A just for
      addressing a serious need for physicallity. The only negative here is
      we need 3 or 4 more just like him.

      Rick

      5) Tanev – I know JR slightly overpaid to get him but I’m not sure he had
      another option. We desperately needed some grit/toughness. My only
      regret is JR stopped here. B+ due to contract / length.

      1. Hi Mike,

         Always good to hear from you.

         You and I seem to be aligned in our thinking. I sure didn’t hate Kessel and maybe he could’ve had another productive season in the ‘Burgh. But all-in-all, I think JR dealt him at the right time. Something I should’ve played up more in my article.

         It is odd that Kahun’s with his fourth team already…after just two seasons! It does make you wonder what’s lacking, or at least perceived to be lacking.

         Based on my eye test and everything I’ve read about the kid, he’s a keeper…for all the qualities you’ve mentioned. Plus, he’s excellent 5 vs 5, picks up a lot of first assists, is fast, creative and plays a 200-foot game. Yeah, I hear ya’ about the lack of physicality, but in his case I’d make an exception.

         I happen to think he’s the perfect third-liner and skilled enough to slot into the top six in a pinch.

         I like Tanev, too. Just wish we had another guy with his bite that went…say…6’2″ 210 and could fight.

         Rick

         1. Rick

            Agree – Grit / toughness is still to me a major concern for
            this Penguin team. I just don’t see it coming from an
            internal source.

            As for Kahun I believe Edmonton is a perfect match. I hope
            he does well.

   2. Hey Other Rick,

      I know I left some hanging curveballs for you to swat out of the park, but wow!!!

      For sure, some of these deals can be evaluated a lot of different ways. I guess if you compare the Kessel-Galchenyuk trade to the almost Kessel and Johnson to Minnesota for Zucker and Victor Rask swap, it pales a bit. But given his reputation, deserved or not, as a difficult player to coach, plus his age and declining overall play (minus-19 his last season here), I don’t think Kessel was going to fetch a premium return. Essentially getting Zucker and Joseph for him (yes, I know you have to factor in the first-round pick and Addison)…well, all things considered I’ll take it.

      I might be tempted to split the difference, grade-wise, on the Gudbranson and Kahun-for-Sheary-and-Rodrigues deals. The former was a salary dump, pure and simple, the one negative effect of Marino’s rapid development. Not that I’m defending the Kahun trade, Lord knows. But Sheary did earn the No. 1 star in the Pens’ lone postseason win. And he did have a two-point game against Ottawa down the stretch, so he wasn’t a total washout.

      He and Rodrigues just didn’t add up to Kahun.

      Rick

   3. Wow, I just reread what I wrote – thanks guys for being able to read thru my typos!

      I do stand by what I meant above (note I didn’t say what I wrote. I was pathetic. Just glad you guys understood).

      I won’t argue the point that at this point in time, Zucker may be a better player than Galchenyuk or even Kessel. And like you Mike, I was not as thrilled with Addison as others may have been. However, in the end, I don’t see the outcome any different, with his track record of failure in the playoffs. I liked Chico (Kehoe); he was a 50 G scorer but absent pretty much every playoff. In the end, had the team not shot itself in the foot, they could have gotten more.

      And Mike, if you argue that since the team gave up nothing but a 6th round pick, I agree – that he was a steal. If you say he is the arguably at least the 3rd best, maybe even the 2nd or even best defenseman the team has, I won’t argue that point but simply say that the statement is like saying he is the smartest idiot in the classroom, there is precious little competition here – only Dumoulin. If you say Marino has shown tru to pairing potential, I still agree. However, I am not ready to anoint him yet. By the end of this season, I may call the deal an A+ but for now, I am only willing to say B, basing the grade solely on last season and how little we gave up.

      Kahun, Mike, I said I believed that the Kahun may have been an A if Kahun was used different but only a C, considering the outcome of how he was used. Many talking heads are calling his signing the signing of the off-season, and I agree. If used properly he could be a gem – I agree.

      I do not need to see hits from a player when his team seems to posses the puck more. To get hits, you have to be at the short end of the possession spectrum.

      Especially on a speed team, Kahun should have been used far more, in the place of pylons like Simon.

      And Rick, refer to what I wrote about Marino and the Pens defense. When the entire team tanked as bad as it did and with Montreal not needing to play all that hard, Sheary being awarded the No 1 star seems to have been more a condemnation of the other players in that game than any real laurel for how well Sheary played. The only good thing I can say about Sheary is that he isn’t Simon.

      Maybe, had Sully given Rodrigues a chance, especially after it was clear Marleau was a bust, I may view this trade in a little better light, but Sully didn’t. He stubbornly held to playing the fossil in his speed game.

      1. The Other Rick

         Marino – I think right now he’s a Top 4 Defenseman on any team
         in the League. That’s not bad for a 1st year player. Put him on
         the trading block and we’ll see how the rest of the league views
         his potential. I would guess everyteam in the NHL would make
         room for him.

         As for Kahun – theirs no questioning his speed or skill set. And
         even I would give him a pass on the physical aspects of his game
         but I didn’t see him cracking our Top 6 and I don’t see him as an
         effective 3rd or 4th line player. I do think Edmonton is the ideal fit
         for his talents.

   4. “Marino for a 6th round pick – certainly, a steal but I am not going to give it an A+. There is no doubt he showed tons of promise, but he is not yet a topflight D-man, just a promising one.”

      This idiotic. Trading a 6th pick for an NHL regular is A+. Your refusal to acknowledge Rutherford’s clear wins shows the you simply have an agenda and cannot be taken as rational.

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