Now that the Alexis Lafreniere lottery (otherwise known as Phase 2 of the NHL Entry Draft) is past, it’s time for the Penguins to set a course for the coming offseason. (Seems weird to say that in August, but then again there’s nothing normal about these times or this hockey season).
Unfortunately, the Rangers landed the No. 1 pick and the right to draft the Rimouski phenom, denying us the chance to add yet another franchise-type player. Still, it’s hard to cry too much given our extreme good fortune in the past with a couple of guys named Sid and Mario (Geno, too). And we do have the 15th overall pick in the upcoming draft—provided we don’t send it to Minnesota as part of the compensation in the Jason Zucker trade.
So now that the dust has settled a bit from our disappointing loss to Montreal, where do we go from here? Maybe the first question to ask is who’s going to lead us there?
Front Office
It’s hard to imagine given the magnitude of the disappointment surrounding our embarrassing postseason exit that GM Jim Rutherford and coach Mike Sullivan are on especially solid ground. Following back-to-back Cups, they were the toast of the town. But three-straight early postseason exits have dulled their luster. What have you done for me lately?
One of our sage commenters, 55 on Point, observed that this feels a lot like 2014, when we blew a 3-1 second-round series lead to the Rangers, which led to the stunning dual dismissals of Ray Shero and Dan Bylsma (on the heels of a 51-win season).
I agree. There’s something about the way the current group lost that leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
Of the two, I think Rutherford is a little less vulnerable. Over the past 17 months, starting with the second Brassard trade, he did some decent work—up to the trade deadline. We’ll come to rue the Dominik Kahun-to-Buffalo deal. And if JR hadn’t acquired a waaaay-over-the-hill Patrick Marleau in a failed attempt to provide leadership and inspiration, perhaps a younger, hungrier player might have filled his slot and contributed during the recent series.
We know GMJR is adept at plugging gaps and swinging deals that benefit the team in the short run…sometimes dramatically so. And he’s pretty good at fixing his mistakes. Those are his strengths.
What we don’t know, because he’s dealt away so many picks, is how well he drafts and develops young talent. And that may well be the key factor in determining his job security going forward.
For the record, his most notable black-and-gold draft picks include present Pens Anthony Angello, Sam Lafferty and Dominik Simon, along with Kasperi Kapanen and Daniel Sprong. Forwards Samuel Poulin and Nathan Legare and defenseman Will Reilly flash NHL potential.
At age 71, does ownership feel he’s the man to restock a prospect cupboard that’s mostly bare?
For now, the jury’s still out.
Behind the Bench
Sullivan did yeoman’s work through the first four months of the season by keeping a team crippled by injuries (over 300-man games lost) humming and on track. The very fact that the Pens were in first place in the ultra-competitive Metropolitan Division as late as February 18 is a testament to his fine work. At the time, I thought he deserved Jack Adams consideration.
Then the bottom fell out. Actually, fell out is putting it mildly…it Chernobyled. Save for a strong effort against New Jersey in what turned out to be the regular-season finale and Game Two of the qualifying round some 21 weeks later, the Pens were mostly MIA while losing 11 of their final 15 games. A shocking reversal of form. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team lose it as quickly and thoroughly as this bunch did. One minute we’re in first place. And the next…
Perhaps the most disturbing aspect was how listless we were in Game Four. With our playoff lives on the line, we looked tentative and uninspired if not downright timid at times. Part of a coach’s job is to make sure his team’s ready to play, and the Pens most assuredly weren’t.
Sullivan’s in-game performance wasn’t so hot, either. He made precious few adjustments, tactical or otherwise, to try and give his sagging team a boost. Needless to say, the loss didn’t look good on him…or the organization.
If anybody’s counting, we’ve now dropped 11 of our last 13 playoff games under Sully dating back to 2018.
His strengths are his ability to communicate, motivate and hold players accountable. Yet for the second-straight postseason his message seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Could he be reaching the end of his shelf life?
My take? I think he’ll remain coach for now, but with very little rope should the team stumble out of the blocks next season. If Rutherford decides to make a change? Former Flyers and Predators coach Peter Laviolette could be an option. Same with Baby Pens coach Mike Vellucci, a former Calder Cup winner in the AHL. Both have ties to JR.
In Part II of my write-up, I’ll attempt to evaluate the players. Who stays, who goes.
Stay tuned.
Rick
Before the Alexis Lafreniere powerball pick…my 19 year old son said “Dad , its gonna go to the Rangers”. He said it definitively. I asked him why and he said ” The Rangers are in the biggest market (New York) thats currently in doubt given the riots and mass exodus of people leaving New York….. they have to create excitement and interest in that market or a huge piece of league revenue goes away”.
Well we’ll see what happens when they pick it live. And then he says…what makes you think what you see won’t be pre-recorded?
So thats one my mind as I watch the whole Yolanda Vega picking the powerball thing with Gary Bettman……..
When the Rangers ball pops up, my son laughs and leaves the room…..
Hey Rick,
Good article my friend. I understand your thought process and I can honestly say that your logic is NOT flawed.You make a lot of sense as usual.
But you know me, if i have something to say I will.
I am taken back to my first days here on the Pens Poop Blog and it was the year that Edmonton was drafting for Connor Mc David. I suggested trading Geno for the rights to Mc David and another roster player. A lot of PP readers thought I was delusional. I wonder what would have happened if that trade was made? Would the franchise be a such a sad state as it is today ? No !!
In that same vane I want to once again speak boldly to the real issue of the Pittsburgh Penguins and the entire NHL. The Pens have failed to advance in the playoffs for the past 3 years. This affects the value of the Team. When you win the team values go UP ! Given the fact the Cap has not moved for 2021 the league is saying,Revenues will be FLAT . That is not good for business Rick.
There is a real good chance the revenues could actually drop next year because of the Covid situation. Not as many fans coming to the games !! Less revenues. Down maybe 20% ? That would be terrible for the Pens.
This threat is real for all sports franchises !!
In that back drop Rick I would say to the Penguins Ownership you start your rebuild today. Do not put it off because even if you could keep the team together next year the Pens will not advance past the First Round of the playoffs.
Then what happens ? A year older. No salary cap to be able to rebuild because of falling revenues.The only option I see is to Trade Matt Murray and our 15th pick, maybe Letang and see if you can land a top 5 pick. Then talk to Malkin and see if you can trade him, and others to secure another top 5 pick in this years draft. Then salary dump what ever you could and start your rebuild NOW.
It goes with out saying you add a New Coach and a new GM..
It is not going to happen Rick just like when I suggested we trade Geno for Mc David and a roster player all those years ago.
I found out later from people in Edmonton Rick that they were looking to get away from all the Kids and they wanted to add a 26- 27 year old Star to lead them to the playoffs.. ???
I do not expect anyone to listen but just remember Rick, this Team today has LOST A LOT OF $$$ Value from 2017. Hundreds of millions? That has to hurt !
Winning is everything in sports.
Looking forward to read part 2 Rick !
Cheers
JIM
Hey Jim,
Forgive me for jumping in here but….
The writing has been on the wall for 2 years now. What did Paul Simon write “The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls”
And whispered in the sounds of silence.”
Some people (and we know who they were) have been shouting out their warning and still the egos of others cover their eyes and bluster in disbelief of the obvious and bury their heads in the sand.
I would be seriously surprised if the Penguins management will have the strength to do what is necessary and cut ties with their downward trending Coach (Regular Season W% 0.657, 0.677, 0.610, 0.610, and 0.623, Playoffs 0.667, 0.640, 0.500, 0.000, and 0.250) and going 3 and 7 in their final 10 games of the regular season.
Even after the Penguins were only capable of winning 30% of their final 10 games, some people were delusional and thought the team would make a Cup run once the post season started. Really? Losing to Montreal in 4 games is the mark of 0.300 team which they were.
Unfortunately, management is probably among those Ostriches. I have no doubt they will not have the courage to cut ties until, as I mentioned below, the heart attack occurs.
Honestly though, I am not all that sure I would stock up on just 1 years draft picks. I am still sorting thru the Prospects and I am not sure what I would say, playing the arm chair GM game.
Remember in 2017, you wanted the Penguins to draft F Klim Kostin (he is now 21, 6’3, 212lbs and played his first 4 NHL games scoring 1 goal last year for St. Louis). I wanted the Penguins to draft LD Nicolas Hague (he is also 21 6’6, 221lbs, played 38 games for Vegas last season and had 1 G and 10 A, had +/- of 0, 32 PIM, 26 Blk, 69 Hts, 13 Tk, 10 Gv). But what did JR do, he traded that first Pick and Oskar Sundqvist for Ryan Reaves and St Louis 2nd round pick which turned out to be Zachary Lauzon. Reaves was subsequently dealt to Vegas for Linberg, Lindberg and Elliot were then sent to Ottawa for Ben Sexton retired and Macoy Erkamps is not under contract to the Pittsburgh Penguins but still in the system having split time with WBS and Wheeling, so effectively JR got nothing.
Had he listen to either of us, the team would still possibly have Sundqvist and either Kostin or Hague.
Just saying
Well said Coach !!
Great time to be a Pens fan buddy. If we live long enough just maybe we will see this inevitable rebuild we have been talking about for so long..
Cheers.
Rick
This is obviously a tough call but I think it’s time to place the majority of the blame on the players. Everyone including myself have taken shots at both JR and Sully but at the end of the day the players have to play.
Where was the leadership? Ever since the Pen’s won there 2nd Cup they’ve lost
a little bit of the edge to their game – Do we lack toughness / grit? Yes – The thing
that disturbed me most was our lack of determination / will to win at all cost.
If Sully has a weakness and I realize we could beat him up on several counts its
his loyalty to the players – the guys that brought two cups to the Burg. As a very
wise man once told me theirs loyalty and then theirs stupid loyalty – I think Sully falls under the latter of the two. In this case I’m not sure any Coach could of won with the players in place.
Malkin – Laid an egg – I’ve become weary of the numerous stick infractions.
Crosby – Appeared to be less than 100%
Letang – When he’s playing 25min a game your in trouble (9)To’s tells the story.
Schultz – Hasn’t been the same since his injuries
Guentzel – First games played in a very long time
Murray – Sully’s loyalty gets the best of him
Sheary – Sully’s loyalty gets the best of him (1st line) “no way”
Pettersson – Game has leveled off in a major way
ZAR – Non factor – It kills me when supporters say he’s great on the PK
Johnson – “Scapegoat” had zero impact on the series – Positive or Negative
Rust – Other than his (1) goal if I didn’t know better I think he was a healthy
scratch for the rest of the series.
Marleau – Didn’t produce “period”
McCann – At times looks so good and other times so bad “Inconsistent”
Blueger – I’m a fan but in all honesty guys like him are a dime a dozen.
Tanev – Other than a bad turnover in game #4 I love the guy – he competes
night in and night out and gives you everything he has.
Zucker -Great pick up – he’s a keeper. i think placing him on Malkin’s line
was a huge mistake.
Hornqvist – Like Tanev gives you everything he has – I know his cap hit’s an
issue going forward but Lord who replaces him???
Jarry – Definitely the Pen’s number #1 goalie in 2020-21.
Riikola & Lafferty – Both players give the Pen’s a physical element they sorely
need but both have issues with discipline / positioning especially in their own
end.
Marino – Average in the series at best. Played down to his teammates. Future
1st pairing Defenseman.
Dumo – Huge disappointment in the series. I have no words.
If JR has one weakness it’s holding on to a player until it weakens his value on
the trade market. I think both Malkin and Letang fall into this category. You have
to know when it’s time to move a player – The Kessel trade is a perfect example
of when to pull the plug on a player although the return wasn’t great it still helped
our financial situation and it was more of an addition by subtraction move.
TO DO LIST
Trade Malkin and Letang – the return at this point will be less than flattering but
it free’s up 15 or 16mil if my memory serves me correctly.
Schultz – Let him walk
Johnson – buy out is not an option – throw in on a Malkin trade
ZAR – We have to have better “this is the NHL”
Murray – Bye Bye / Not the same player / Sully displayed “stupid loyalty”
Sully – Rick I’m in agreement with you on this one – Sullivan gets another
year but if they struggle out of the gate his job will be in jeopardy.
My apologies – Another rant.
Hey Rick,
You know my thoughts, clean sweep and start fresh. What is it that they say about the proverbial rolling downhill. The last 2 seasons embarrassments lay squarely on the front office and coaching.
When was the last good trade or signing of JRs? Marino? Well that does look good right now, but what about next season? I thought the dumping of Brassard for Bjugstad and McCann was going to be JRs turn around, a year later and that trade now looks like just one more piece of scrap to heap up on the pile frustration. Perhaps, as we talked, the tarnish is really a result of Sully’s misuse of McCann – he may be more of a Wing and deploying him as a Center was the problem, but as it stands now, Brassard is in the Playoffs and the Pens aren’t. So, I will hold off on crowning Marino.
Add to that messed up financial situation – always up against the Cap from bad trades and signings and his giving Sully an extension after getting swept against the islanders, not making him earn it. No wonder our Pens were almost swept by the 24th ranked team this year. JR has to go just like Shero had to go.
Sullivan? You are probably right, the organization will drag its feat until it is too late. All too often people do their level best to ignore all the signs and symptoms until the heart attack happens. Well not only did it happen again this post-season, it will happen again and again so long as Sully is coach. HIS team, a team of speedy little water bugs with no aggression is the problem. It worked when it was a novelty, Sid and Geno were younger, and we had a really good Goalie Coach keeping our goalies honest, but the league learned and we traded that really good Goalie Coach in for an also-ran.
It really wasn’t a coincidence that the team was winning when the injury bug hit. That bug was an attempt at Divine intervention. Unfortunately, Penguins brass just weren’t in the mood to listen. Before and after the injury bug, when Sully had HIS team together, it lost. When Sully was forced to use players that he didn’t think were good, the team won.
Furthermore, after the Islander series he and JR both admitted no one was listening to him. In other words the team tuned him out. He lost control of the team. No one has said it yet, but the meekness of the Montreal debacle has the same stench. The team looked absolutely lifeless and mechanical, barely eking out 22 shots in an elimination game with most of them from the perimeter.
Age and really poor, trading and signing, and really bad decisions on roster personnel has stripped the club of a lot of its talent. The talent level of the team that Sully deployed got exactly what it earned; a loss to a cellar dweller.
if we can’t acknowledge that we will not be able to move on. Before an alcoholic can recover, the first step is acknowledging there is a problem.
The winning streak that the team went on during the regular season would seem to indicate that under a better coach, a coach that can inspire his team to do something other than roll over and play dead in an elimination game, there still is some hope; maybe not a serious Cup run, but a trip back to the playoffs.
Hey Other Rick.
I don’t dispute anything you say.
Hooks Orpik on Pensburgh noted that Rutherford’s been unusually quiet since the defeat. Could he be pondering a heavy decision…such as replacing Sullivan?
Dan Kingerski on Pittsburgh Hockey Now said the one change that won’t occur is trading Malkin, according to a source with the organization.
Rick
Hey Rick,
All of people, in their frustrations, are forgetting that of the big 3; Crosby, Malkin, and Letang, they either have full blown NTC and NMC so short of a buy out they aren’t gong anywhere (Crosby, Malkin) or a M-NTC (Letang – 18 team list he can be traded to). Furthermore, in the current financial environment even if one of those 3 would accept a trade, there would not be too many teams capable of or willing to on their salaries so that the Penguins would have to eat some portion of that money, defeating a large part of trading them anyway.
The Other Rick
Theirs always way’s to circumvent the Salary cap. If the Pen’s
want to move one of these guys finances won’t interfere with
making it happen. People put to much emphasis on the Cap.
“I know this first hand”
Rick
On Malkin – that could possibly be a strategic move on JR and the
Pen’s part. The last thing you want floating around is your looking
to move a player – it never helps the return.
Just a thought but I guess time will tell.