The State of the Penguins Part 6: The Goalies

At one time, Goaltending was considered a strength for our Pittsburgh Penguins. Matt Murray stunned the NHL, winning the Stanley Cup at the tender age of 21 – before he even his rookie season. He posted a 0.923 Save Percentage (Sv%), winning 15 of 21 games and the Cup. Backing him up was another Cup winner and at one time 1 number overall pick of the NHL Draft, Marc-Andre Fleury. Behind those 2 was a developing Tristan Jarry, a Free Agent (FA) surprise in Casey DeSmith, a 2nd round draft pick Filip Gustavsson who jumped from the Swedish SuperElit league up to the SHL posting a 0.928 SV% in the SuperElit and a 0.912 SV% in 15 Games Played (GP) in the SHL.

Now, the team is down to Murray, Jarry, DeSmith, and newcomers Alex D’Orio and Emil Larmi.

Matt Murray

Murray went on to have even a better season during his rookie year, he posted a 0.937 Sv%. During that season he finished with an explanation point of 2 Shut Outs (SO) against the Nashville Predators, starting a SO streak that lasted into the next playoffs, going 224:49, from game 4 of the 2017 Stanley Cup Finals until his 2nd game against the Philadelphia Flyers in 2018, 47 minutes longer than Jarry’s regular season record of 177:15.

Unfortunately, that was then, and this is now. After that 2nd Cup run, Goaltending Coach Mike Bales bailed, and Mike Buckley took over. The Buckley/Murray combination has been quite a bit farther South than the Bales/Murray combination. Coaching does make a huge difference.

Murray was not the reason the team lost against the Montreal Canadiens, but he did not help. Perhaps the Bales/Murray could have helped but Buckley/Murray did not. Murray has been playing deeper in the net and giving up shots over his short-side shoulder (a weakness Jarry shares as well)

Many, fans are now calling for Murray’s head and want to trade him. In their frustration, they want to trade a 26-year-old Goalie, even though Goalies do not hit their prime until their late 20s.

Fleury is hands down, at this moment the best Penguins goalie in history. Comparing Murray to the benchmark of Fleury over their age 21-25 seasons we see that Murray had a higher Our friend Rick Buker likes to look at a stat called Quality Start (QS) and QS% – a stat developed by Rob Vollman. I don’t know what goes into that stat. I look at Complete Game Percentage (CG%) and turned in a higher percentage of Games Started with Sv% above 0.900 (GS>0.900). I can understand those numbers and can see their value. Using those stats Murray is tracking to be better than Fleury.


Fleury Regular Season – 91.0% (CG%), 53.5% (GS>0.900)
Murray Regular Season – 91.7% (CG%), 61.7% (GS>0.900)

Fleury Playoffs – 95.2% (CG%) 61.3%, (GS>0.900)
Murray Playoffs – 98.0% (CG%) 68%, (GS>0.900)

Some try to say that Fleury had to play on bad teams and that is true. However, the difference between Murray and Fleury is even more pronounced in the post-season where the discussion is limited to only playoff teams and if anyone had a team advantage it was Fleury since he was on a rising team and Murray is on a team on the decline.

Oh well, with the vitriol being spewed toward Murray, maybe it is time to trade him. It does not look like Murray will be afforded the opportunity to reach his potential in the ‘burgh’ particularly if Murray asks for more than a bout $5 million on his new contract (he is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) and even if he doesn’t, Buckley is still here.

Fortunately, there are GMs out there who understand hockey and are already contacting Jim Rutherford.

It grieves me to say but Murray is probably gone.

Tristan Jarry

Jarry had a fairly solid breakout season, even in the face of a team imploding. As mentioned above he set a team record for longest regular season SO streak.

It may be that Jarry has to thank Salary Cap issues for his break. He had been having trouble getting consistency in his game in previous season and many thought he would be starting last season in Wilkes Barre – Scranton, but since he only counted $675,000 against the Cap and DeSmith would have $1.25 million Jim Rutherford gambled and won, sneaking DeSmith through waivers to save Cap space and Jarry got the nod as Murray’s back-up. And to his credit, Jarry took the opportunities he was given to show that he was a capable number 1 Goalie on the team.

Jarry only got to play 1 of the playoff games and acquitted himself well in the final loss. Another playoff elimination game where the skaters failed to show up.

Jarry is a keeper.

Casey DeSmith

DeSmith had a couple of good seasons, looking like he could inherit the back-up role in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, the same fate that gave Jarry a chance robbed DeSmith. DeSmith’s salary cost him a chance to back-up Murray. After getting sent down to WBS, DeSmith struggled. Maybe getting sent down was a blow to his ego and caused him to play sub-par for several months but for whatever reason he struggled in the AHL.

It may be better for the team if they could sneak through next season with both Murray and Jarry rather than rely on DeSmith as a backup. However;

DeSmith stays and will probably be the back-up again.

How do I see the Penguins Goalies next season?

TBD

Our friend and fellow writer on Penguin Poop, James Arthurs posed the question to Rick Buker, “What would you do if some team makes a better offer for Jarry than for Murray” (paraphrased). To me everyone is tradable, Jim. I would trade the player that gets the Penguins in the best position; if that is Murray, then he is gone. If that is Jarry, then Jarry is gone. However, I am not just looking at who the Penguins get in return, but how stable I can keep the Goaltending (is the team better with the trade?)

As I wrote above, there are already GMs inquiring about a Penguin Goalie, probably Murray. If one of them is the Toronto Maple Leafs, I would deal if I could get Kasperi Kapanen, not quite the right-handed sniper the team needs but a right-handed shot with tons of speed. I would try to make it a multi-player swap to include Alexander Kerfoot for the 3rd line Center.

Some writers are also talking about the Edmonton Oilers as a Murray destination, but they are coveting Jesse Puljujarvi who sat out the entire season in a contract dispute. Sorry, I don’t want another teams problems. Yes, I would deal with Edmonton, but I want Raphaël Lavoie and Edmonton has tons of young guns but no goalie.

However, regardless what happens on the trade market between Murray and Jarry, that leaves a big hole in goal. As I wrote above, I don’t trust DeSmith anymore and Larmi and D’Orio haven’t shown that they can even make it to the AHL level, let alone the NHL level. They both toiled in Wheeling of the ECHL.

Last summer, I suggested that Rutherford look at two European Free Agents (FA); Vasili Demchenko and Adam Reideborn. Demchenko, a 26 year old, 6’-1” 165 lb Russian Net Minder had a 0.932 Sv% and a 2,20 Goals Against Average ( GAA) in 46 GP for Traktor Chelyabinsk of the KHL in 2018-2019 when I wanted Rutherford to sign him. He didn’t quite repeat those numbers in 2019-2020; in 22 GP for Traktor Chelyabinsk his Sv% dropped to 0.908 and in 14 GP for Metallurg Magnitogorsk it was 0.906. However, Montreal signed him for the coming 2021 season.

After posting Sv% of 0.937 and 0.929 in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 respectively, for Djurgardens of the SHL, Reidedorn jumped to AK Bars Kazan of the KHL and still had a very respectable 0.913 Sv%. He is still with AK Bars Kazan, on a contract extension.

But our Penguins do have Emil Larmi in Wheeling.

With Demchenko and Reideborn off the market, I would suggest the team sign Michigan State University Goalie product John Lethemon. He is 24 years old, 6’-3” and 190 lbs. He had a 0.935 Sv% and 2.13 GAA in 33 GP last season. The only scouting report I found on him was by Chris Dilks from 2014. The article cited balance and poise as his Lethemon’s biggest assets. It also said that he squares up to shooters well and has a strong lower body that allows him to move quickly to take away the lower areas of the net, while still staying up to cover the upper portions.

With nothing else in the Organization, I think he is worth a FA look.

Another option to rebuild the Penguins decimated Goaltending pipeline would be drafting Yaroslav Askarov, the 6’-3” 176 lb, 18-year-old kid from Omsk Russia. He is a bit of an oddity in that he is a right-gloved Goalie. He had a 0.920 Sv% with a 2.45 GAA in 18 GP for SKA-Neva St. Petersburg of the VHL last season. He didn’t fair quite as well in the World Juniors, his Sv% dropped to 0.877.

Peter Baracchini of The Hockey Writers writes of Askarov “The soon to be 18-year-old has high-end vision, movements and reflexes, making the most difficult of saves look easy.”

Cam Robinson of Dobber Prospects writes “Hits all the markers – size, composure, puck-tracking, elasticity, and competitive fire. Was very good in the VHL as a 17-year-old – something we never see.”

Mike G. Morreale of NHL.com writes “The 17-year-old already is an intimidating presence in net with great poise, athleticism and a quick glove. Askarov was 12-3 with a 2.45 goals-against average and .920 save percentage in 18 games in Russia’s minor league.”

Steve Koumianos writes “From a technical standpoint, Askarov’s style draws a lot of attention. Not only does he catch with his right hand, but he remains perfectly upright throughout his shuffling with his stick blade on the ice and his head totally locked into puck movement. To some, this may seem nonchalant or overconfident, but Askarov can snap into a textbook butterfly ready stance in an instant when facing a shooter.”

NHL Central Scouting Analysis writes “A technically sound goaltender with good instincts capable of reading the game well. He’s good at communicating, can react quickly and offers a very quick (right) glove hand. He’s a solid pro prospect.”

It is well past time to restock. After Jarry (most likely the Goalie kept) there is nothing much left.