I was thinking about our favorite hockey team as I am wont to do, and the question popped into my head. Are the Penguins a playoff team?
How I wish I could answer in the affirmative. But there are so many “ifs.”
Even general manager Jim Rutherford admits as much.
“It’s always exciting when you make changes,” JR said. “It’s exciting, but you’re a little nervous too because you don’t know exactly how it’s going to play out. We have some new guys that are coming in that have had good years and they’re good players, some coming off a little bit of off years for them. So, it will be interesting to see how their game plays out. Of course, we have our fingers crossed that they’ll all get back to the level that they were at their best.”
In other words, there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding this team.
Heck, even among the comparative sure bets there are questions. Can Bryan Rust duplicate his break-out success of last season? Will Kasperi Kapanen mesh with Sidney Crosby and achieve his potential? Will Jason Zucker find chemistry with Evgeni Malkin? Will the aging core remain productive…and healthy?
Again, minor concerns, but legitimate nonetheless.
However, there are weightier issues that are causing me some sleepless nights.
The Competition
The Pens did not draw the easy straw…not by a long shot. Indeed, the East promises to be by far the toughest of the four new divisions. A virtual murder’s row featuring five of the top 11 clubs in points percentage last season, Boston, Washington, Philadelphia, our Pens and the Islanders. For good measure, the talented young Rangers could be ready to make a move, and even have-nots like Buffalo and New Jersey won’t be pushovers.
For the record, the Pens were 32-15-3 against the rest of the league in 2019-20 and a lackluster 8-8-3 against their new division brethren.
I’d say there’s ample cause for concern.
The only thing that might mitigate in our favor? The Islanders have lost some key players, and the Rangers might not be quite ready for prime time. But if either of those teams surprise, our boys could be in trouble.
The Third Line/Bottom Six
JR made fixing the nettlesome third line a priority over the off-season. To that end he signed former Calgary center Mark Jankowski and Evan Rodrigues, who we acquired, traded away, and then resigned on the first day of free agency. The intent is to place them on a unit with incumbent Jared McCann.
Jankowski put up decent numbers for the Flames before the wheels fell off his wagon last season. Rodrigues has hinted at being a productive NHL skater (25 points in 48 games in 2017-18, 29 points in 74 games the following season) but he’s never quite gotten there.
Two of those fingers-crossed gambles Rutherford was referring to.
Of course, it would be great if they bounce back and team with McCann on an effective third line. But if they don’t? Then it leaves the bottom-six in an all-too-familiar Mulligan stew jumble.
If the newcomers falter…and there’s every chance they might…perhaps Teddy Blueger and Brandon Tanev join McCann on the third line as Mark Madden suggests. That combo has a nice feel to it. Lots of speed and tenacity.
Then perhaps Jankowski and Rodrigues drop to the fourth line with Sam Lafferty.
For now the orange construction cones remain firmly in place. But the bottom six will be a key factor in determining the black-and-gold’s success…or failure.
The Third Defense Pairing
I confess, I keep waffling back-and-forth on this one. Well, make it a half-waffle.
I’ve been dubious from the get-go about Cody Ceci. His playing style and metrics are eerily comparable to the departed Jack Johnson, right down to his heavy feet.
I’ve been more upbeat about JR’s marquee acquisition on defense, Mike Matheson. The raw tools are there…skating, shot, puck-lugging ability…for this kid to be a strong contributor.
But on the flip side…a staggering number of giveaways. I was hopeful that new Pens’ defensive coach Todd Reirden might be able to fix Matheson and turn him into a solid performer and perhaps he can. However, as other blogs so aptly noted, this is where the abbreviated 10-day training camp really hurts. It provides precious little time for Reirden to work out the kinks in Matheson’s game.
Envision this nightmare scenario if you will. Metrics show that opponents get a ton of shots from the high-danger areas when Ceci’s on the ice. If Matheson turns the puck over in those areas and Ceci is typically slow to react…
…too painful to ponder.
Goaltending
I love Tristan Jarry. I love his athleticism, the way he moves in the net. I love his quickness, his glove hand, his ability to handle the puck. In short, I think he has the makings of a terrific goaltender.
I don’t mind Casey DeSmith as a backup. During his two-season stint in the ‘Burgh he was fairly solid. He even started 30 games for us (and appeared in 36) in 2018-19 and held up pretty well…a 2.75 goals against average and respectable .916 save percentage.
Still, I worry about what happens if Jarry is injured and DeSmith has to carry the load for any length of time. Actually, my real concern is No. 3 goalie Maxime Lagace, who would slide into a backup role if Jarry were out.
We might have been better off signing Maxime Talbot for our third goalie. Lagace, to be kind, has been horrible at the NHL level and hasn’t exactly shone in the AHL either. He’s a definite Achilles heel.
I’d have felt more comfortable had JR signed a veteran like Craig Anderson to fill the No. 3 slot. Alas, as always seems to be the case, the Capitals beat us to the punch.
Back to my original question. Are the Penguins a playoff team? To be totally honest, my head says no…that there are just too many question marks…too many potential soft spots. But my heart wants to believe, so I’ll answer in the affirmative. But an awful lot of things will have to go right in order for us to get in.
Puck luck plus.
Puckpourri
The Penguins signed defenseman John Marino to a six-year, $26.4 million contract extension on Sunday. The deal begins in 2021-22 and carries an average annual value of $4.4 million.
Acquired from Edmonton for a sixth-round pick, the Massachusetts native enjoyed an outstanding rookie season in 2019-20, tallying six goals and 26 points in 56 games to go with a plus-17…tied for best on the team with Brian Dumoulin.
Known for his skating, poise, puckhandling and superb gap control, the coveted right-shot blueliner teamed with fellow youngster Marcus Pettersson to form a solid second pairing.
In other noteworthy news, it appears Kapanen will miss training camp and perhaps the start of the regular season due to immigration issues and a mandatory seven-day COVID quarantine.
Hardly the puck luck plus I was hoping for.
Yeah great article, I am in the same boat…
my head says no way but my heart says yeah baby!!!
I really hope the flightless birds make it, for Sid’s sake, he never takes a shift off, has give his all to this team and city…but
It will depend on the bottom six and the all 6 d-man having a good year.
I think Jarry will do great, depending on D.
The only player I am worried about is Jake. Remember when Schultz broke his leg crashing into the boards?? In my eyes he wasn’t the same top 4 defenseman after he came back..scared? worried about getting hurt again…
I hope the same doesn’t happen to Jake, not wanting to go behind the net or up against the boards in the corners.
I wasn’t impressed with Zucker, hopefully Rust hasn’t already had his career year.
We can’t compete in this division with only a hand full of players playing well or they will be looking up from the bottom of the division.
Hey Rick,
Saw you added that Addendum.
I am certainly praying Marino avoids the end of the honeymoon jinx to which every player has fallen victim. He showed tons of promise I hope he builds on it, unlike Pettersson and McCann and many others who took a step backwards.
If he does break the mold and progresses, the $4.4 million extension could become a steal.
Hey all,
Interesting read on Pensburgh. “As training camp begins, the Penguins are as strong or as vulnerable as you want to see them.”
Don’t know what the basis is for their statistical analysis. But Moneypuck.com only gives the Pens a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs, and predicts they’ll finish fifth behind the Bruins, Caps, Flyers and Rangers.
Rick
Very Interesting Rick,
I looked it up on that website and the Pens are listed as 22nd in percent chance to make the playoffs. Regardless of the division, they don’t give the Pens much of a chance. They apparently don’t see the Penguins through the same lenses as some people on the Pens organization.
Truthfully, next to Crosby, Malkin, and Guentzel, that may be the best thing going for the Penguins. Teams may take them too lightly and they may be able to squeek out a couple of wins as an underdog.
Hey Rick,
Great stuff as always.
At this time of a season (Training Camp) optimism runs really high. Almost everyone thinks with their hearts and not their heads. So no doubt there will be dissenters, even here on these pages but you are spot on, there are way too many “?”.
If you ask me, does this team have a group of players that could take this team to a playoff-berth? I would say yes. If you asked me if I though this team had a group of players that could challenge for the Cup? I would say no, there isn’t enough talent here, unless the rest of the league has significant injuries. If you asked me will Sullivan maximize the potential of this team? Again, I would say no. He hasn’t done that in 3 years and has not shown any sign of figuring it out.
You spoke of Zucker meshing with Malkin, that is just one example of Sullivan probably not getting it. Zucker hasn’t shown any chemistry with Malkin yet and in the 10 days of a camp, the probabilities are low that he will. Guentzel on the other hand, Guentzel – Malkin – Rust was electric.
Kapanen is in limbo right now awaiting immigration. I do think he was the only move this off season that will prove out, but the probability that he gets out to a fast start is also low and with a truncated, condensed schedule, a slow start has a high probability of being fatal.
Matheson as you mention is only a probably at best, since he has not put his game together under better circumstances, but again as you note in a 10 game training camp, the probability of “fixing” him at all, let alone fast enough to make an impact drops. Add to that the fact that as it stands now, this team will have a player impacting their Cap by $4.85 million playing 3rd pairing really should be alerting psychiatric wards to a potential Coach and GM to be coming to avail themselves of their services. Probability is, well less than 90% here.
Ceci, would also appear to be in a similar boat as Matheson, being in need of Wunderkind Reirden to “fix” him, but having no time to do it. But at least he isn’t hitting the Cap as hard. Again, the laws of probability are working against him.
Jankowski, another reclamation project with limited time to “fix” him. Probabilities again work against him.
Rodrigues still hasn’t delivered at the NHL level, another project with only a probability of success.
If you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance of it coming up heads. If you flip it twice, the probability of it coming up heads is still 50%, but the probability of consecutive heads drops to 50% x 50% or 25%. the probability of it coming up heads 3 times drops to 50% x 50% x 50% or 12.5%.
I am sure that everyone pretty much gets the point here. That is why I used the term probability in so many sentences. Each wishful thought carries a probability, like Crosby, Malkin, and Letang, playing a complete 56 Game or close to 56 Game season.
When each of these probabilities start to get multiplied to each other, the chances get longer and longer.
In the case of kids like Poulin, Legare, Maniscalco, Angello, Lafferty, O’Connor, Zohorna, Joseph, or Lee making a contribution would seem to be statistically close and cheaper. But the team will probably start out with the veterans. They are getting paid a ton and Sullivan hasn’t shown the impetus to play kids since he won Cups many years ago.
The only thing I am counting on is continued excellence from Crosby and Malkin.
I do think Jarry will have a good season, but I am not so sure (like Kingarski) that he will post a Sv% in the upper 0.920s. When you multiply his Sv% per quality of Shot vs the number of High danger shots he faced, his Sv% wasn’t really any higher than Murray’s. His ability to move the puck may negate some of that, but I would think that with him being the Number 1 now, the team will stop insulating him as regularly as they did last year and I expect his numbers to drop about 10 points, into the upper 0.910s, particularly with Gv artiste Matheson in front of him.
Hey Other Rick,
Outstanding comments. Just outstanding. Not much I can add to what you wrote.
Rick
PS–Glad I was able to give you a lead-in…lol
Just another quick note, affecting the chances all of these reclamation projects workout, it really isn’t a 10 day camp. The first day is just physicals and admin stuff, so Matheson, Ceci, Jankowski, Rodrigues et al only have 9 effective days to chase away the ghosts of the past.
Hey all,
I saw an interesting blurb on Pittsburgh Hockey Now regarding former Pen Erik Gudbranson that grabbed my attention. I’ll paste it in below.
“It is a shame to hear Erik Gudbranson on the trade block again,” wrote Dan Kingerski. “Our video analysis and review of his time in Pittsburgh was very positive, and…he is a first-rate human. He has the commanding presence of an enforcer and the salt of the earth personality. Reading tea leaves, and nothing more, I don’t think Penguins GM Jim Rutherford wanted to give him up. He would certainly be a good D-pair with Matheson. I’ll stop now before I openly advocate re-acquiring him. Although, having some toughness who liked the system would help against Boston and Washington, eh?”
My heart skipped a beat when I read this. I would absolutely love to get the big guy back. If there is any way at all to flip him for Cody Ceci (doubtful since Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion let Ceci go in the first place) I’d do it in a heartbeat.
Of course there’s the not-so-little matter of Erik’s $4 million cap hit. But the Sens have tons of cap space (over $10 million) and maybe we could convince them to carry some $$$.
Again, this is a total pipe dream. But I would love (love, love) to have Gudbranson back. Especially since the Caps have muscled up over the off-season.
Rick