When I was a little kid, I confess on more than one occasion to standing outside a store, my nose pressed against a display window, staring at a toy I coveted but couldn’t afford. Kind of like Ralphie ogling the “official Red Ryder carbine action, 200-shot, range model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing that tells time” through Higbee’s window in A Christmas Story.
I’m no capologist. However, after taking a cursory glance at our present salary cap situation, I wonder if the same thing’s going to happen with our Penguins when free agency hits on July 28.
According to CapFriendly, we’re presently sitting at $82.7 million…roughly $1.2 million above the limit. Puckpedia, which lists Anthony Angello, Kasper Bjorkqvist, P-O Joseph, Drew O’Connor and Juuso Riikola as non-roster players, paints a somewhat rosier picture, giving us roughly $2.5 million of cap space.
When you consider the Pens have four unrestricted free agents and four restricted free agents among their present roster? I’m scratchin’ my head trying to figure out how GM Ron Hextall is going to work this out, let alone fill some areas of perceived need (a goalie, a physical forward and defenseman) from the free-agent market or through a trade.
An unfortunate end result of Jim Rutherford’s spend-to-the-hilt ways.
Among the internal candidates, I figure we’ll let Colton Sceviour (UFA) and Mark Jankowski (RFA) walk. That still leaves RFAs Zach Aston-Reese, Teddy Blueger and Radim Zohorna and UFAs Frederick Gaudreau and Evan Rodrigues among the forwards and UFA Cody Ceci on defense.
While I’d think Hextall would have an interest in bringing all of them back, obviously that’s wishful thinking unless we somehow clear a significant amount of cap space.
A lot hinges on the upcoming expansion draft, slated for July 21. There’s always hope the Seattle Kraken will select Jason Zucker, sure to be left unprotected. That would lighten our cap load by a cool $5.5 million and give Hextall some much-needed wiggle room.
Perhaps some sort of deal can be struck to induce Kraken GM Ron Francis to pick Zucker, similar to what Rutherford did back in 2017 when he sent a second-round pick to Vegas to ensure the Golden Knights took Marc-Andre Fleury.
Problem is, we don’t exactly have prime draft picks and/or expendable young talent growing on trees. And it’s hard to imagine Francis taking on that kind of salary, especially when comparatively inexpensive and more appealing players such as Aston-Reese and Blueger (and possibly Jared McCann and/or Brandon Tanev) will likely be available.
Although Hextall might opt to open up cap space by trading a Jake Guentzel or a Marcus Pettersson, most teams aren’t looking to take on added salary in the face of COVID-induced flat-cap economics.
What’s a GM to do?
Wish I knew.
Muddying the waters even further, all of our RFAs except for Bjorkqvist are arbitration eligible, giving them extra leverage in negotiations. It’s been suggested on other sites that the Pens non-tender their RFAs and try to work out team-friendly side deals to avoid the arbitration process.
Bottom line? It adds up to a pretty messy situation that’s going to be a real test of Hextall’s management skills. While I have a lot of faith in him, it’ll be a monumental challenge to say the least, one that’ll require a Midas touch. Let’s hope he’s up to the task.
If not, our Pens could be a lot like that little kid from Bethel Park, nose pressed against the glass, staring longingly at the free agents and potential trade targets as they pass on by.
Movin’ On
Two players who were on the black-and-gold payroll last season have moved on. Forward Josh Currie signed to play for Metallurg Magnitogorsk of the KHL on June 11. Goaltender Emil Larmi signed a two-year pact with Lahden of Finland’s Liiga on May 31.
Puckpourri
Assistant coach Mike Vellucci was a candidate for the vacant Columbus Blue Jackets coaching position. The Blue Jackets wound up hiring long-time assistant Brad Larsen.
I love opening night, I love watching the Penguins in
the playoffs, but I love this time of year… offseasons.
Playing arm chair GM!
I would trade this guy or I would sign him, I would let him go..I love all the rumors and talk, it’s just fun.
It will be a tough off season for Ron, no cap room , one pick in the first 4 rounds, players I want to see gone, only a couple prospects.
I agree with the Other Rick…. keep Gaudreau and ZAR. Maybe resign Ceci, he will get a good pay in free agency.
If Hextall can unload Zucker, Matheson and Petterson that is what -$15 million, even if bring back a bad contract….still farther ahead on cap issues.
I have said it before but, I definitely think we need a big, tough power forward and a mean defenseman.
Just look at the 4 teams left, all have exactly that.
Teams need speed and skill, but you need players who aren’t afraid of paying the price.
I think Ron should take a look at Lavoie, a young player to help with the future, or someone with similar size that could help now and may benefit from a change in scenery.
Hey Pens4ever,
You hit the nail on the head when you described the fun of the off-season…playing armchair GM and trying to figure out what moves we’ll make.
Normally, I’m right there with you. But our cap situation is especially dire and I’m really having a tough time seeing how Hextall’s going to navigate this.
Last fall Rutherford did a terrific job of identifying and signing lost-cost guys like Ceci, Gaudreau and Rodrigues (who, I confess, grew on me as the season progressed).
I think Hextall’s going to need to perform similar magic this summer. If anything, we’re even tighter against the cap than last year.
I don’t dislike them, but if we could find a way to shed Zucker and Pettersson ($9.6 million), it would really help. I think Matheson is unmovable due to his contract…unless we take on someone else’s problem contract.
I agree wholeheartedly that we need significant alterations in order to better compete in the playoffs. Fast and gritty just isn’t gonna cut it any more. As you suggest, would love to see us land a power forward and a snarling defenseman.
Problem is, those guys don’t exactly grow on trees these days, and the teams that have ’em aren’t too anxious to part with ’em. In the long run we’re going to need to draft and develop that type of player…not exactly the Pens’ MO.
In the meantime, adding Radim Zohorna and Nathan Legare to the mix could help us take baby steps in that direction. Kasper Bjorkqvist is reported to be built like a brick shite house (6’1″ 198) and is said to play a power game. And Samuel Poulin certainly has the size (6’2″ 213). Just not sure about the disposition.
I wouldn’t rule out Anthony Angello as a fourth liner. He can skate for a big guy.
Defense is another matter. Just about every d-man in the system, save maybe for Ceci, is built to Sullivan’s specifications. We’re going to have to bring in someone from the outside. Gudbranson’s probably going to be available, and probably at a reasonably cheap rate. But he’s bounced around so much, you wonder what effect that’s had on his psyche.
Anyway…I’m rambling. It will be interesting to see what Hextall’s able to do.
Rick
Pens4ever
Not sure I understand your logic with dumping Pettersson or Matheson. The
right move here in my opinion is keep the young players and move Letang.
With Matheson and Pettersson you drop around 8.9mil – just dropping Letang
you can save 7.25mil. Then drop Zucker it puts you just under 13mil. it’s a
difference of about 1.4mil. My preference would be to keep the younger
players.
I’m not a Pettersson fan and if we decide to move him I’m hoping it’s for
a physical defender or Goalkeeper.
Go Pens
Hey Mike,
For the record, I’m not unhappy with Matheson. I thought he did a lot of good things and really helped our transition game…until the playoffs.
Then it was kind of like ripping the needle off the phonograph record (I’m showing my age). He had a decent Game 5 (six shots on goal), but the rest of the series I thought a lot of his old positional weaknesses resurfaced, particularly down low in our zone.
Of course, our ‘d’ as a whole didn’t play that well. Even Dumoulin and Ceci were minus players.
Anyway…my two cents for what it’s worth.
Rick
It’s more of Salary dump I was suggesting, I liked Matheson.. he wasn’t terrible, everyone makes mistakes! Dumping those 3 would save a lot, even if we had to bring back a “bad contract “.
I an not a fan of Letang, too many mistakes but he won’t be going anywhere, unless he decides to leave next summer.
If Penguins lose or trade Zucker and Petterson, I would be happy with that.
It is going to be tough for Hextall to make too many changes, with the flat cap and cap room.
Hey Rick,
I have been putsing with these numbers myself for a while. The good news is that Angello, Bjorkqvist, Joseph, O’Connor, and Zahorna are/or at least were waivers exempt (have to check to see if they still qualify for that) but signing Bjorkqvist and Zahorna could be done a lot easier as their salaries could be hid in WBS for a minute to clear Cap space later.
Re Zucker, he really hasn’t meshed here. I would love to move on like we did with Perron but I don’t think or support throwing him away like we threw away MAF. Yes, I would expose him to the expansion draft, but if Seattle passes on a bona fide NHL scorer, then that is their stupidity. Furthermore, if Hextall cannot barter a fair deal for Zucker before opening night, as the season progresses teams needs will change and I am sure someone will eventually be willing to cough up value for him.
Also, McCann is a low cost Cap player that could be traded before the expansion draft that could make Zucker look like the best option for Seattle to take.
Sorry, Rick but it is time to move on from both McCann and Zucker.
Re ZAR, not going to apologize, but I will shed no tear whether ZAR stays or goes. He is a depth guy that is all. And now he is aging, so if he wants too much $$$$ go with a younger option.
Among the Fowrwards you mention only Blueger and Gaudreau should be considered as serious attempts to re sign.
Defensively, If the team can it needs to look at shedding both Pettersson and Matheson and signing Oleksiak and maybe plying Hague off Vegas. Lose Pettersson and Matheson and the team can sign Ceci, Oleksiak and maybe even Gudbranson.
Oops, I forgot, Sullivan is still here, scratch that idea – this will still be smurf city until he is gone.
Here is an interesting rumor I heard (so don’t put too much stock in it yet); someone I know reported that there is chatter that Edmonton may be ready to part with a kid I wanted the Pens to draft in 2019 (if you recall), Raphael Lavoie; 20yr, 6′-3″, 205lb C.
I definitely would kick the tires here, particularly if we lose Blueger instead of Zucker in the Expansion draft.