Here’s what I think is happening based on the moves that Ron Hextall has made thus far.
The Talk
When Ron Hextall was brought on, a discussion was probably had, Hextall most likely wanted to build a team for the future, as is his style. I think that Brian Burke & Mario Lemieux understand this as well, I don’t feel that Lemieux would ever let the Penguins get like the Red Wings. So they all sat down and had a chat, Brian and Mario probably laid it out like this to Hextall, “try to win us one more with the core of Crosby, Malkin, Letang, if we don’t win a cup this year, then start building us for the future”.
So with Hextall’s strict budget, he got to work, found similar replacements to the players we lost, almost all of them on one-year contracts, except for Brock McGinn, who he got at a bargain price, especially if he improves, which I think to be likely from watching him play for a while. (I’ve been a fan of McGinn, glad to see him in a Pens jersey.) All while hoping the new acquisitions may perform better with a change of scenery and being on a team like the Penguins, as quite a lot of them have room for growth still.
Letting the Core Walk
This seems to be a do or die, one last big run for the cup with the old crew, before the beginning of the new, the more I look at it, the more it becomes clear. Hextall signing a ton of one-year contracts, no extension for Malkin & Letang offered “as of yet”, the signing of a stud prospect goalie in Filip Lindberg, the talent ready for NHL play this or next season in Zohorna, Poulin, Legare, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, the table is set, a changing of the guard is coming.
One. Last. Run. Can the boys do it one more time, before the inevitable rebuild?
So, what if we completely tank? There is a strong possibility of that, with our shaky defense, and goaltending, unless a trade is made soon. Let’s come to reality for a second, even if we make a trade for a defenseman, it would have to be somebody special to make any meaningful change, I just can’t see who that could even be, or who would give up someone like that. If a trade is made, it would have to be a goaltender, which is easier said than done. I would think that discussions are still being had with the Ducks for Gibson, calls are probably going back and forth as of right now.
I think that the team potentially tanking is also a part of the plan, we still have our first-round pick, and I know Hextall is drooling at the thought of having a chance at superstar prospect Shane Wright. Why wouldn’t he be? Multiple teams are purposely selling off their teams for a shot at him, Sabres & Coyotes being the two big ones having fire sales. If I’m being honest, from watching Shane Wright play, he reminds me a lot of Crosby himself, imagine getting that as the Penguins. That means we would have had, back-to-back-to-back generational superstar draft picks, I can already see the internet losing their minds saying it’s rigged.
How does letting Malkin & Letang go help?
I can already hear it, “Malkin and Letang still have a lot of years left”, “you’re crazy, no way they let the core go”, I’m sorry but this is what I’m seeing, I had to be real with myself and take off the rose-tinted glasses. Letting Malkin & Letang walk next season free’s up to $16,750,000, that’s a big sum to pay for two guys who’re 34, yes, I know, they’re still good, but the decline has already started.
I can really only see Letang doing a team-friendly deal, but Malkin on the other hand? Sorry, don’t see it, especially after the ludicrous $9,500,000 contract Ovechkin just got, my god, that contract will sting when Ovi’s 38+, shame on Ovechkin for accepting that deal if he wants to try and win another cup, if he just wants to ride off with a big payday before he retires, not worrying about another cup then more power to him. Talk about kissing your chances at a cup goodbye as the Capitals, now have $32,250,000 in four guys who will essentially play till age 40 or close too, getting paid the same as when they were in their early thirties and twenties.
I don’t think the Penguins plan on going this route, I think they understand the problems with that.
If we look at all the one-year contracts Hextall made this year, and we also have all the players whose contracts are up next year. All these players are up for scrapping next year if they don’t perform.
Players who’s contracts are up in the 2022/2023 season.
- Evgeni Malkin – $9,500,000
- Kris Letang – $7,250,000
- Bryan Rust – $3,500,000
- Kasperi Kapanen – $3,200,000
- Jeff Carter – $2,636,364
- Danton Heinen – $1,100,000
- Evan Rodrigues – $1,000,000
- Sam Lafferty – $750,000
- Chad Ruhwedel – $750,000
- Mark Friedman – $750,000
- Total = $31,661,364
Phew, that is a chunk of change, a lot you can do with that kind of money, things aligned nicely that a lot of the Penguin players contracts are up, it’s a smart move to let most of them walk. Now obviously not all these players will be let go, some will be re-signed, but you get the idea, on top of all that fresh cash you still have a 1st Round Draft Pick, “for now”, and Hextall isn’t in the business of trading first-round picks, which is exactly why I think he was selected to GM.
The Goodbye
So, a possible goodbye to one of the best players to play the game, no not Crosby, our own Evgeni Malkin. As much as I yell at my screen telling Malkin to backcheck, he’s a special player, and I love having him, he’s a superstar. Every moment where I am yelling at him in frustration is a moment where I am yelling in amazement. Watching him go off into the sunset, will hit hard, not going to lie, it’s that realization that the Penguins have aged, they can’t be the superstars that they once were, and we shouldn’t put that pressure on them either. Malkin is really showing his age out there, even though his skill is still there, he’s also injured, and he’s injured a LOT, it’s hard to watch.
I have a soft spot for Letang as well, even though he frustrates the hell out of me, and he plays more like another forward than a defenseman, but there is no denying his talent, he’s had his own share of dazzling moments, and I’ll miss seeing his name in the black & yellow 🙁
Hopefully, they can manage with this team, just one more, one more for the old boys, Crosby, Malkin & Letang, a perfect way to end, the lads celebrating together, hoisting the cup up…….just, one, last, time….they deserve it. No sugar coating It’s going to be hard, as the team as a whole is generally the same as the one that just lost in the first round, if not a slightly worse version, the problems we had are still there, tougher needed defense, better goaltending, no girt. Maybe just maybe though, this group of gents will pull it together, fight with every fiber of their being, and bring the Cup back home.
A Message to Penguins Fans
Yes, the ending of an era, letting Malkin & Letang, and inevitably Crosby go, a lot of penguins fans will hate this article. SACRILEGE! They’ll say, you don’t know what you’re talking about! They’ll never let Malkin and Letang go! You’re just wrong! They’re still great!
Well, I say life’s tough, and sometimes tough decisions have to be made. The number of comments I’ve read on social media from most Penguins fans over the past couple of weeks is just plain embarrassing, it really shows how little the majority of the fans know about hockey, what bothers me the most, are the insults thrown at each other. You have two groups of penguins fans, “the everything we do is wrong group”, no matter the trade, no matter the performance, the motto is “we suck” these fans don’t bother me as much as the second group, which I’ll get into. This group tends to be the casual (not always) viewers, they enjoy a beer with the buds, ranting about their team, going on Twitter and Facebook and rant about how they are not watching, etc. It’s just kind of a “what you do” as a sports fan kind of deal, they share their opinions, laugh, yell at the TV, and have a good time, at least “generally”. Some are a little too serious.
Then we have the “everything the penguins have done is great and they can do no wrong group”. Ugh, I shudder just saying it, this group can be “Know it alls” a lot of the time. To quote Penguin Poop writer “The Other Rick”, “Stop drinking the Kool-Aid”. We’ve been eliminated in the first round multiple times, it’s not a fluke, and it isn’t better luck next time, wake up. There are some major flaws with the team, it isn’t sunshine and rainbows out there, love me or hate me, (probably mostly hate) but I call it as I see it, sometimes the truth hurts. Every signing, the Kool-Aid drinkers, strike again, straight to social media, saying stuff like “another great depth add” & “great player, he’s going to be a good fit” they’re like robots, they think they know about hockey. I can almost guarantee most of them have never really seen these guys play, they hurry and start tapping away on their keyboards to type up the player’s hockey DB, or watch a couple of YouTube videos on them, then comment like they know what kind of player they are, be real, you don’t. You only watch the Penguins and occasionally another team you like, I know you have a life, it’s hard to watch all that hockey, that’s fine, but don’t start spewing nonsense about players you don’t know, or talking in an echo chamber of people who all think the same.
I write about hockey, and obviously, I watch a lot as well, but I still don’t know a lot about certain players. Taylor Fedun is a great example, guy was completely off my radar, I only slightly recognized the name. I wrote a quick news piece on him, but I didn’t act like I knew much about him, yet the Twitter experts apparently knew, and boy they knew all about him, sharing what a great defenseman he’ll be for WSB, “like any of them have really watched a WSB game”.
You’re on social media insulting fellow Penguins fans because they have a critical opinion of your team, that needs to stop, get off your high horse, as Uncle Joe Biden would say “C’mon man”, discussing is fine, insulting and belittling is not. I am aware there are fans out there that know what they’re talking about, they do watch games outside of the pens, follow news around the NHL, watch prospect players, but these fans knowledge comes across in what they say, these are my favorite fans/commenters, just talking good hockey talk 🙂
In honesty both groups are wrong, sometimes your team does the right thing, sometimes they do the wrong thing, stop being all negative, stop being all positive. View the team and the changes objectively and just enjoy hockey! It’s great if we’re good, and it’s okay if we’re bad, we all love hockey that’s what it’s all about! Take a chill pill and have fun!
Thank you Caleb for saying the things that need to be said. Hanging on to “the core” for dear life is killing this team! I’ve been vocal about finding a way to send Geno to Siberia and I am usually met with the, “You know nothing about hockey” or “You are not a true Penguins fan” responses. The reality is that we have won ONE playoff series in the last 4 years – not acceptable. Sports is a “what have you done lately” profession but yet our ownership and management, and much of the fan-base, hangs onto winning the Cup 4 and 5 years ago as reason not to change. It’s time for us to rip the band-aid off instead of leaving it on because it might hurt in the process of removing it. The postseason game has now passed us by and we have turned into the Canucks by celebrating regular season success. Somehow we are peachy-keen by lowering our standards as long as the beloved “core” is here (and with the fantasy that they will save the day). Keep up the great work Caleb…and I am happy to share the hate-mail responses with you. I guess I know nothing about hockey.
Hey Jeff,
Just curious, are you aware that over the last 3 seasons Malkin’s Points per 60 minutes 5 on 5 among Centers (2.77) 4th in the league over that time, only behind McDavid (3.04), and Marchand (2.95). Sid doesn’t check in until 9th (2.52).
No, I am not going to say you know nothing about Hockey, because you want to move on from high salaries, but I will question your knowledge of Hockey based on your comment of sending Malkin to Siberia, when he has been the 3rd most effective offense force 5 on 5 among Centers over the last 3 seasons. You may not be letting personal biases interfere with your Hockey judgment, but that Siberia statement does make me wonder.
There is going to come a time to move on from Malkin and it may be this summer. After Ovie got $9.5 million/yr for 5 years, Malkin’s wife may try and force him to ask for a similar contract and yes then it would be time to move on, just as it will time to move on from Sid one day and was time to move on from Mario. Youth eventually must be served – but there is no need to ship anyone off to Siberia. Geno is still the best Goal producing Center/player on this club.
Thank you Caleb for saying the things that need to be said. Hanging on to “the core” for dear life is killing this team! I’ve been vocal about finding a way to send Geno to Siberia and I am usually met with the, “You know nothing about hockey” or “You are not a true Penguins fan” responses. The reality is that we have won ONE playoff series in the last 4 years – not acceptable. Sports is a “what have you done lately” profession but yet our ownership and management, and much of the fan-base, hangs onto winning the Cup 4 and 5 years ago as reason not to change. It’s time for us to rip the band-aid off instead of leaving it on because it might hurt in the process of removing it. The postseason game has now passed us by and we have turned into the Canucks by celebrating regular season success. Somehow we are peachy-keen by lowering our standards as long as the beloved “core” is here (and with the fantasy that they will save the day). Keep up the great work Caleb…and I am happy to share the hate-mail responses with you.
The time for Tanger, Geno, even Sid to exit stage left is coming. Some sooner than others, MAF for instance. Time waits for no one. But I’m an old fart, and have watched my teams ebb and flow like the rise and lowering of the tides. It’s a bit of tear jerker, but it is also an opportunity for new faces to leave their mark.
The question becomes: can their inevitable departure bring some return? or will they be permitted to skip out of town as an UFA?
Hi I R A Darth Aggie,
Like you, I have been around a long time. I go back to the very beginning with our Pens. I was a bit sad when Pronovost wanted to leave. I was saddened when the Battleship left, when Denis Herron retired, when Jagr demanded to be traded and when Mario retired. I even go back longer for the Pirates and Steelers. I miss baseball and wish the city could get a major league team again. I grew up on Clemente gunning down players, Stargell hitting tape measure shots, Maz turning impossible DPs, Veale fanning batters left and right, Bob Robertson’s 3 – run bunt to send the team to the WS.
Unfortunately, I fear the Pens passed on their best opportunity to bring return on certain veterans and tied their own hands on others. Too many teams suffer the disease of gamblers, holding onto hands that they should have folded on. If this kid Shane Wright is as good as the talk is saying, I would love to tank this season and get a shot at drafting him so that there will be no protracted gap.
Hi Caleb,
Great piece of work my friend. It takes a lot fortitude to write a piece like that, especially in this crowd. Thank you. It was very well researched and covers many angles of this serious problem.
I agree with your conclusion regarding Malkin and Letang. I would add we should actually trade them both before they retire to get some thing in return if THEY were agreeable to it. Letang would be a perfect fit in Ottawa or Montreal given his nationality. He would be an instant media star in the Province of Quebec. Both teams need high profile French speaking players to help sell tickets, so for me that would be the logical choice. Maybe a 2022 second round pick in Ottawa for Letang ?
With Geno there is no way I would pay him $ 9.5 million like Ovechkin. That is just not practical from a rebuild position.But if past actions are a predictor of things to come Caleb,I have seen this management group make some really crazy contracts for mediocre players at best, so I am a bit concerned about that.
Finally we will need more than just 1 top 5 draft pick to restart the rebuild..How do we secure another top 5 draft pick for 2022? I am already assuming we will finish in the bottom 5 of the league so the first one is easy to come by..Where do we get the second top 5 pick? I think we will have to trade for it late January2022 and hope we get lucky..
A few years back OTR and myself were beating the trade Letang drum quite a bit but no one listened…I really wish they had.
Thanks again for a great post..
Jim
Hey Jim,
I remember that (pushing to trade Letang), not only did no one want to hear it, they were very belligerently trying to shout down logical reasons with nonsensical rantings.
Also, I am not so sure that 2 top 5 picks in the same draft class will do the trick. I haven’t had the time to really dig into next years prospects but it may not be a very deep draft pool. I believe it was Mike who mentioned the Pens probably being sellers come the trade deadline (something you and I have been pushing for 3 years at least) but if that is the case, I may try and position for 2022, 2023, and 2024 draft picks. This isn’t going to be a rapid rebuild. It looks like it may take some time. A lot of these kids coming up had serious chunks of development delayed by the COVID shutdowns and may take longer to hit their stride, so I am thinking stack the deck as much as possible with ELCs that all do not come to an end at the same time. It may be better to have talented kids on cheap contracts, salting the roster over a long period of time.
When I saw what Ovie got, I am afraid Geno’s wife will never let him take a team friendly contract so as much as I like the guy, I have made peace with the potentiality that he is gone but I don’t see him taking a trade. Letang on the other hand could be a rental for some team trying to make a playoff push.
Sorry Mike but I don’t wait for the trade deadline on Zucker. He only has 2-years left on his contract so he should be movable by Christmas and that will be about the time his production will start to dry up. He has a history of coming out of the gate very strong only to fade down the stretch. I would try and trade him while his stock was rising again.
Who I feel bad for is Carter. He came over here in good faith to help this team and he did, now it looks as if the team is quitting on him.
Shane Wright is a nice prospect, as well as Brad Lambert out of Liiga. Not sure how we’d be able to pull a 2nd top five pick to snag Lambert tho……
Hey Caleb,
As well as Mike and Rick,
As we talked this AM Caleb, I have had the same gut feeling for some time, that is why I laughed about Hextall looking to tank for a top 5 pick a couple of times now.
When I consider how bad the players Hextall signed (other than McGinn) are, I can’t think of any other explanation than a deliberate attempt to tank justifies them. All of the players you have named above; Zahorna, Legare, Angello, even POJ and Lindberg, as well as players you didn’t name, Bjorkqvist, Bellerive, O’Connor, Hallander all would put the team in a better position to win than Simon, Fedun et al. The only way I believe the team isn’t trying to tank is if Simon starts the season in Wheeling, while Heinen, Fedun, and Chaput start in WBS.
You know I am a Malkin fan. I will miss him, the day he retires. Even on a bum knee, he was still a larger offensive force than Crosby this past playoff. Part of me hopes Geno signs a team friendly deal and stays a Penguin if he doesn’t retire outright.
Letang? Can’t say I was ever a fan. I would have dealt him several years back. At this point, I merely accept him since there is nothing in the system, nor is there any hope to replace him from without. Had I gotten my way a couple of years back, I do think that Kaski could be a challenger for that spot but that ship sailed past JR.
However, in the end, the march of time is inevitable. I will miss 71 but I won’t blame him if he moves on.
Lindberg, he had better be NHL ready, there isn’t much separating him from his 1st NHL start right now. Alex D’Orio is the only other option in Goal if there is are injuries and as whipped cream soft this D is an injury is almost a fait accompli.
Wow Caleb. Great piece. Passionate, well-thought, well-written.
It feels like somewhere along the line, perhaps just prior to the Expansion Draft, Hextall & Co. switched horses and didn’t tell anybody because they want to give the illusion we’ll be competitive (and sell tickets). It’s really the only way to describe the rather uninspired moves the Pens’ GM has made this summer (and Brian Burke’s surprising silence). Yes, Hextall’s plugged holes (barely). But the Pens aren’t anything you’d hope they’d be. They aren’t faster, they aren’t better and they sure as hell aren’t tougher.
I know he didn’t have much to work with. But it’s almost as if Hextall consciously avoided the players he should’ve tried to sign. I alluded to it a couple of articles ago, but it feels like we crossed an invisible line and have taken the initial steps toward a long, grinding Flyer-esque rebuild.
Rick
Hey Rick, thank you, it was quite the passionate piece as I’ve watched these players for years, to see them possibly go is a very saddening thought, what’s also sad is realizing that they just don’t have what they use to, but alas I digress.
I agree Rick, Burke wants to sell tickets, before the inevitable rebuild sucking pens, haha. It would be a PR nightmare if it leaked, that we’re only going one more year with the team, or as Mike pointed out trading Letang, and what’s left is Malkin and Crosby for one year, especially after they said “we’re sticking with the core for next season.” I think we will keep the big 3 this year, but next I think all that will remain is…
Crosby….
Rick
This morning I listened to an interview on TSN with Brian Burke. He basically said they have no
money, no assets and it was like shopping at KMart. He did say with what he had to work with
Hextall did a great job. For whatever that’s worth.
I think it’s worth a lot. That, coming from Burke, is high praise indeed.
Caleb
Good article. I’m in total agreement with your assessment of letting Letang and Malkin
walk. A word of caution when it comes to free agency, money doesn’t always translate
into players. Granted it will at least get you into the conversation but when this goes
down if it does the Pen’s will take it on the chin for a couple of years. Not a huge attraction
for an incoming free agent.
I also believe if the roster stays this way until the trade deadline we will be sellers. I do believe
Hextall will then try to move Letang – I feel like that’s his best shot of securing any type of reasonable
value in return. He may need to make it a multi-player deal and attach a Rust or Zucker….etc..etc….
This is going to be an interesting season for sure.
Hey Mike,
Thank you.
I agree 100% money doesn’t always translate into anything in free agency, but I would disagree that there is no attraction for a free agent to sign. I would use Dougie Hamilton as an example, as he signed with the Devils and they’re an atrocious team at the moment, I believe he signed for three reasons, the main one being big pay day obviously, the others is that they have some good young talent, he probably thinks he can help make the team a lot better, and the last one..the name, The Devils.
I think the same applies for the pens if we go down this route, a lot of cap, good upcoming young talent, and the franchise name, we could get some pieces.
I think for the most part, as you said, we will take it on the chin and be bad for awhile, acquiring draft picks, and giving the young talent chances to play and grow.
If a trade happens with Letang, I agree we most certainly will give up another player, and most likely retain some salary.