Other Rick and I were talking hockey and discussing our favorite team the other day at Wright’s Gym. As you can imagine, the conversation became rather animated and passionate. We touched on a lot of issues and concerns that you, our faithful PenguinPoop readers, have read and commented about on this blog countless times before.
I’ll try to give them a fresh spin. Hope I succeed.
There’s a sameness about our players that, in my humble opinion, holds the team back and diminishes our chances for success. Especially among our forwards.
Obviously, there’s some variation in ability, makeup and skill. But when you boil it all down, Teddy Blueger is Jake Guentzel is Jared McCann is Evan Rodrigues is Bryan Rust is Colton Sceviour is Jason Zucker. I’ll exclude Sidney Crosby for obvious reasons and Brandon Tanev because he brings an extra spark. But physically…they’re cut from the same cloth.
We’re built that way by design. Coach Mike Sullivan wants to play a speed game, and the team’s tailored to suit his preferred style. Understandable to a degree. But these guys are almost too homogenous, right down to their demeanor. It’s almost as if they’re automatons cranked out on an assembly line. Small ones at that.
It shows in the way we play. The guys have a tendency to go around obstacles rather than through them. Or to make that extra pass. Again, understandable. If I’m a 5’11”, 190-pound forward and I see a 210-pound defenseman looming in my path, I probably do the same thing.
For all of our considerable talent, we’re not built to penetrate and excel in the prime scoring areas. Which is why so many of our shots seem to come from the perimeter or long range.
I did an informal analysis of the average length of our goals at 5v5 compared to our opponents, based on data from Natural Stat Trick. Excluding our 5-4 overtime win over Washington (no data available on shot length), the average length of our opponents’ goals is 16.7 feet. Our average is a little over 22 feet. A significant difference.
Not surprisingly, the Pens also lag when it comes to generating chances from the high danger scoring areas. Again, according to Natural Stat Trick, we average 9.64 shots per 60 minutes at 5v5 in the ‘hot’ zones…18th best in the league.
To our credit, we do finish once we get there…an average of 1.77 high danger goals per 60 minutes at 5v5…tied for sixth best in the league. A testament to our skill level. It’s the getting there that’s the problem.
Some functional size and aggression might help.
That goes for our defense, too. Although it’s tough to properly evaluate our rearguards due to the Biblical plague of injuries we’ve endured, the Pens have yielded an average of 2.28 high danger goals against at 5v5 per 60 minutes. That’s 29th worst in the league.
Defense is a team endeavor and some of the leakage surely falls on the forwards and goalies, not to mention a general lack of structure. But Sullivan’s preference for stick-on-puck (or air) defense is a major culprit, too. As a group, our defensemen touch nary a soul around our net.
I’ll bet Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith wouldn’t complain a lick if our new GM brought in a physical defenseman or two to dispatch opposing forwards from their doorstep. They’d probably treat him to a full-course dinner at a five-star restaurant.
So what’s the optimal mix of players? Think Montreal, currently occupying second place in the Scotia North Division with a sparkling record of 7-2-2. Yes, those Canadiens…the ones who dispatched us lickety-split in four easy games last fall.
Sure, the Habs have skill and speed to burn…players like Tyler Toffoli, Nick Suzuki, Jonathan Drouin and Jeff Petry to name a few. But they also feature a Mack truck like Josh Anderson and abrasive veteran Corey Perry up front, and bangers Shea Weber, Ben Chariot and Joel Edmundson on the back line.
Think anyone impedes Carey Price’s sight lines for very long?
I’ll pose another question. Think we’d survive a playoff series against these guys…or other teams constructed along the same lines (Boston, Philly)?
Not likely.
It’s truly going to require a paradigm shift in our organizational philosophy in order to build the type of team that can compete for a Stanley Cup. Frankly, Sullivan, good coach that he is, may need to go. He’s far too wedded to his preferred style…and type of player.
It’s time to think outside our traditional box.
Although the Pens’ talent pool is short on aggression, there are some players who could help. Right wing Nathan Legare, for one. The 19-year-old spitfire plays an abrasive game, and he’s got great hands to boot. Perhaps a natural successor to Patric Hornqvist.
Hulking Anthony Angello and Sam Lafferty could provide some jam, too, although the latter appears to have taken up permanent residence in Sullivan’s doghouse. All-too-reminiscent of “Sully’s” treatment of bedrock defender Ian Cole.
I’ve used this analogy before but it bears repeating. Skilled though they are, you wouldn’t stock a football team solely with wide receivers and expect to get very far. You need the big guys to block and tackle and do the dirty work in the trenches.
Likewise, you wouldn’t build a basketball team with point guards. You’ve got to have forwards and big men to play around the hoop.
The same goes for hockey. Let’s hope our future GM gets it.
Hi Rick, et. al.
You’re dead on, as usual.
This team succeeds or fails with its top six. If they aren’t scoring, early and often, they’re going no where. They aren’t built to defend. They aren’t built to shut down (in the third period). They’re built to out score. Unfortunately, that doesn’t work either if they can’t hold a lead.
I’m tired of seeing opponents standing in the our crease with nary a Pen within 10 feet, like Eberle yesterday. I’ll admit our goaltending hasn’t been quite up to snuff so far this season, but they’ve had little help.
The rest of the league is not only getting faster, they’re getting bigger. The “heavy” game is on the upswing. Defense is on the upswing. We need look no further than our own division, which is a murderers row of bigger, meaner teams that defend well. Montreal has finally caught on, after years of speed and smurfs. The Pens could have done that, too, except… Sullivan.
This team has played some good hockey this season. It simply hasn’t been enough. There are things missing and if they aren’t going to address them, if they aren’t going to change with the times, then let the rebuild begin. They’re wasting Sids and Genos time.
— 55
Hi Rick,
This really should be a subject for a separate article. I came across the Forbes most recent 2020 NHL Team Financial Evaluations in which they noted that the Penguins Value had dropped to 650 million, good for 8th place in the League. While reading I read some very disturbing news in the article that should concern ALL Hockey fans everywhere.The title for the excellent article was..
” NHL Team Values 2020: Hockey’s First Decline In Two Decades.”
“Revenue for the league totaled $4.4 billion during the 2019-20 season, 14% less than the previous year. Operating income was $250 million, down 68%. That’s left many owners scrambling for a lifeline.” Income 68 % down !!! They writers go on to say “The league’s FIVE most valuable teams—the New York Rangers ($1.65 billion), the Toronto Maple Leafs ($1.5 billion), the Montreal Canadiens ($1.34 billion), the Chicago Blackhawks ($1.085 billion) and the Boston Bruins ($1 billon)—accounted for almost a quarter of the league’s revenue. WITHOUT THEM, the league would have LOST FIFTY MILLION DOLLARS LAST YEAR.” That is not good Rick.
It gets even worse when they said, ” Nine teams posted double-digit operating losses—four more than in the 2018-19 season. The 2021 Champion Lightning posted an operating loss (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $11 million, according to Forbes estimates.
Some teams have borrowed money to mitigate losses, with average team debt rising to $144 million, from $127 million last year, by our count. More losses are expected from the abbreviated 2020-21 season, so the league is looking to tap the private placement market for more debt.”
Over 50% of the NHL teams lost money last year, including the 20 million in TV revenues that each team receives.
The Pens made 14 million dollars this past season the report said.
The real issue going forward Rick is the League is in real trouble because teams are using debt to prop up their operating losses and that is unsustainable.
Plus Bettman’s trick of selling NEW NHL Franchises for $ 600 million and then saying that the entire league is worth that is ludicrous. The Pens are not worth $ 650 million in today’s climate and we are ranked 8th in the league…
Can you imagine the bottom 50% and how their owners feel now..?
Tampa Bay wins the Cup and losses 11 to 14 million dollars depending what article you read. Not good at all buddy.
The NHL is not alone in their economic woes….
Just wanted to add this to the discussion.
Cheers
Rick.
I found an interesting article on the Hockey Writers…”2020 NHL Owners and who they are.”
“NHL players are extremely well known to fans. Even many coaches and general managers are recognized by those who watch the game. But what about the owners? The people who finance your favorite team aren’t as easily recognizable despite having huge impacts on the team and the league as a whole.To better understand the owners of the 32 NHL organizations, this piece will look at their business ventures outside of the hockey clubs, how they came to acquire the teams and how the teams have performed under their leadership.” This article is dated January 3rd, 2021.
Here is what they said about our beloved Pens..
Pittsburgh Penguins
Operating Entity: Lemieux Group LP
Owner History
Mario Lemieux, of course, is one of the greatest players to ever play in the NHL. In 915 games, the Pittsburgh Penguins star collected 690 goals, 1,033 assists and 1,723 points. He was a 10-time All-Star, two-time Stanley Cup champion, six-time Art Ross Trophy winner, four-time Ted Lindsay Award winner, three-time Hart Memorial winner, and added a Calder Trophy, Bill Masterton Trophy and a Lester Patrick Trophy. In 1997 he was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame.
Ronald Burkle is an American billionaire and the co-founder and managing partner of The Yucaipa Companies, LLC. This organization is a private equity and venture capital firm that specializes in underperforming U.S. companies in the distribution, logistics, food, retail, consumer and light industrial sectors. Over his time, he’s owned stakes and investments in A&P, Whole Foods, Golden State Foods, SeatGeek, SoundCloud, Airbnb, Three Lions Entertainment, among many others. He’s also the lead investor trying to bring an MLS team to Sacramento.
Penguins Under Ownership:
The story of Lemieux’s transition from a player to an owner may just be one of the best stories in NHL history. With the team declaring bankruptcy in 1998, owing over $90 million to creditors including $32.5 million to Lemieux himself for deferred salaries, he converted his owed money into equity–enough to give him controlling interest in the team. He turned the team around, paying off all creditors by 2005.
The team is worth $650 million (2020).
Great article…. I don’t want to toot my own horn…. but I have repeatedly said that our team needs more balance, not just small guys with speed.
Look in the past, how did win cups?
With toughness and size, speed and strength us veteran leadership.
Way back in the 90’s, with Mario and Jagr we had Toochet, Ulf, Trottier.
Then when with Sid snd Geno guys like Gill, Malone, Robert’s, Kunitz, Kessel.
Pens don’t really have that kinda team right now and it shows on ice.
My opinion…. this team stays the same course of smaller fast players until Mike Sullivan is no longer the coach.
Any comments on how much longer he has?
Will Morehouse get rid of him or does the new GM bring in a new one?
I heard Ron Hextall getting a interview.
You know my opinion Pens4ever, Sully is at least 2 years past where I would have moved on. Not only does his teams have no balance, but he, himself, appears to be so afraid to lose that he has stopped coaching to win.
However, my guess is that he has until the new GM comes in.
Hey all,
Another interesting read over on Pensblog (The Sports Daily). “Ten (Or So) Numbers After the First 10 Pens Games.”
Rick
Rick
Couldn’t agree more and it’s one of the reasons I’m hoping management
goes outside the organization to hire a new GM.
it’s funny you wrote the article when you did – I was just talking to my
brother about the Pen’s lack of toughness and the way this team has
been built to succeed in the regular season and fail in the playoffs.
We both felt like the Bruins team is was built much like you would expect a team
from the Burg to look like – Skill, speed, size, and toughness.
We need a makeover!!
I agree, Mike.
Speaking of makeovers. For a number of years, Toronto tried to play a straight speed/skill game like us and got nowhere in the playoffs.
Following Tampa Bay’s blueprint from last season, the Leafs focused on adding toughness, character and leadership this fall. They signed Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza, Zach Bogosian (who won a Cup with the Lightning) and Wayne Simmonds.
Simmonds isn’t the player he used to be when he was scoring 30 goals a season. He never was great 5v5 and that hasn’t changed. But he’s still tough as nails and he can still score on the power play. And he’s a former Messier Leadership Award winner.
Last night he pounded the Canucks’ Jordie Benn in a fight. You can’t tell me that doesn’t lift a team.
Of course we’ll never know because Sullivan has no use for tough guys. A reminder…the Pens were reported to be looking into acquiring Simmonds (also Bogosian) at the trade deadline last season. There were split factions in the organization. It doesn’t require much guessing to figure out where “Sully” stood. So we go out and get Patrick Marleau, Evan Rodrigues and Conor Sheary instead.
We know how well that worked.
By the way, the Leafs are 8-2-1 and in first place in the North.
Rick
PS–You mentioned Boston. I was hoping the Pens might give their director of player personnel, John Ferguson, Jr. a look. Like you, I really like the way the Bruins are built, and Ferguson certainly has had a hand in that. His first run as GM from 2003-08 with Toronto was regarded as an epic fail, so perhaps the Pens will shy away. But like you, I’m a fan of the way the Bruins play.
Rick
Agree on all points – For me Boston checks all the boxes. Skill, size,
speed & toughness and they have great leadership although I think
losing Chara and Krug hurt.
Wayne Simmonds has (3) goals for the Maple Leafs and they recently
moved him to their 2nd line. For me any goal from him is a bonus – the
value is with his toughness and chaos he creates in front of the net.
Crosby and Malkin would have a field day on the PP.
Go Pens
So true Rick.
For a decade or more the Leafs thought they just needed more skill, like the Red, white and Bleu of Quebec to win. They were wrong,because recent Montreal teams forgot the lesson of the old championship teams as well ! You have to be able to play BOTH ways because regular season and play-off Hockey are so different.
Size matters….Skill matters…..Speed matters…Brains matter….
Rick,because we have had lower level draft picks and US college kids in our system ,(the basis of our team,) we are at a serious disadvantage.We need young elite level talent to win.At all positions! Plus the all mighty dollar !!!
One thing the new NHL did do was bring in the salary Cap.The great equalizer… Every team has the same limits to spend but in all reality probably 50% or more of the NHL clubs can not afford to spend $ 81 million dollars plus on wages every year ,because then they will lose TO much money. You have to go far in the play-offs to make money.
Remember last season Mario said to Jimmy we may have to cut the wages for 2021 ??
It never happened yet but if the Pens miss the playoffs, that could mean a 15 to 20 million dollar loss for the team. This team nor it’s owners can afford that to happen…. but they may have no choice…
One last point Rick, no one ever mentions… the debt on the team. President David Morehouse announced when they moved to the new Arena that the Pen’s obtained a “One hundred million dollar plus credit line” for the team moving forward. I read it in a financial magazine way back when and he was doing an interview.
I just wonder at what level their Team debt really is.That also puts added pressure to win on a Team.In the recent Covid situation you can see that many NHL TEAMS are in trouble…
Cheers
Hey Rick,
Spot on!!!! I am not going to bet that the team will read or take what you wrote to heart, but truer words were never written!
Going along with balancing the team with skill, speed, and size, there are big guys out their with size as well as skill and speed; Washington’s hit man TOm Wilson comes to mind. He actually has as many points as Crosby right now. The Pens need to get over their prejudice that big guys can’t skate.