If you’re like me, you were pulling really (really) hard for the Penguins to face the New York Islanders in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. I wanted no parts of Boston and Brad Marchand and Tuukka Rask and still don’t (probably the only time I’ll ever root for Washington).
But as the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for because you just might get it.
Historically, the Islanders have owned us in the playoffs, winning four of five meetings (think Penguins-Capitals in reverse). Not only have they had their way with us, but they’ve inflicted some of the most damaging and course-altering defeats in franchise history…the improbable 1975 comeback from a 3-0 deficit that sent us reeling into receivership; the crushing Game Seven overtime loss in 1993 that stopped a would-be dynasty dead in its tracks; the inglorious sweep in 2019.
Chico Resch and bleeping David Volek.
No sense in dwelling on the past. Today’s a new day. And if you’re a Penguins fan there’s plenty of reason for optimism.
First, a brief recap. While the Pens captured the MassMutual East with 77 points, the Islanders wound up in fourth with 71 points. Much of that gap can attributable to our regular-season mastery of our first-round foe. We went 6-2 against the Isles, collecting 12 out of a possible 16 points in the process.
By season’s end, the teams were clearly heading in opposite directions. Following a 2-0 loss to the Islanders on February 28, we closed with a piping-hot 26-8-2 run. Remarkable, given the spate of injuries we endured to key players such as Evgeni Malkin.
As for the Islanders, they stumbled through a 6-7-3 home stretch, a slide that coincided almost to the day they acquired forwards Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac from New Jersey in an attempt to plug the gaping hole created by the loss of team captain and stud power forward Anders Lee to a season-ending torn ACL.
Strengths
They say styles make fights. That’s definitely the case with the Pens and the Islanders. Speed versus structure. Apollo Creed versus Rocky Balboa.
Mike Sullivan’s boys want to play on their toes. We want to exploit the trap, turn the Islanders’ defense and cut loose our high-powered offense. Something we did quite effectively during the regular season.
Under coach Barry Trotz, the Islanders embrace a disciplined, counter-punching style. They’ll clog the neutral zone and wait for us to grow impatient and turn the puck over. Then they’ll try to capitalize on those opportunities. A formula that worked to perfection during the 2019 postseason.
Up front, both teams boast plenty of depth and can roll four productive lines, including gritty nettlesome fourth lines. However, the black and gold has a decided edge in upper echelon talent. Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust each topped 20 goals. Malkin and newcomer Jeff Carter are big-time scoring threats. By comparison, slick center Matt Barzal topped the Isles with 45 points, 17 less than Crosby.
Lest you think we’re all cream and no substance, we can score by committee as well.
Edge Penguins.
Defensively, it’s a bit more even. For New York, the tandem of Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock graded out as one of the best in the NHL, and former Cup-winner Nick Leddy is no slouch. But the Pens’ top pairing of Norris Trophy hopeful Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin is top-notch as well. Mike Matheson and Cody Ceci could spell trouble for the Isles with their ability to exit the zone quickly.
Between the pipes, Semyon Varlamov was far superior to our Tristan Jarry statistically except where it matters most…wins and losses. Which leads me to…
Achilles Heel
Despite Varlamov’s gaudy numbers (2.04 GAA, .929 SV%, 7 SO), the Pens found a sizeable chink in his armor and exploited it beautifully. Our last six goals against the veteran netminder…and nine of the last 10…have gone in on the stick side. He’s especially weak high to the stick side.
Turning the tables, the Pens are vulnerable to a heavy forecheck. When pressured, our defense tends to unravel. We’re particularly susceptible below the goal line and close to the cage. (For a gruesome reminder, watch clips of our 7-5 loss to the Bruins on April 3).
To make matters worse, our forwards have difficulty winning puck battles when we’re pinned in our end. A recipe for disaster against a big, strong Islanders squad that excels along the wall.
Too, where the New Yorkers rarely take a shift off, we’re guilty at times of playing in spurts. Sixty-minute efforts must be the rule and not the exception.
X-Factor
I’d mentioned the Pens’ top line earlier. They’re the X-Factor in this series. During the regular season they tore the Islanders apart. Sid had three goals and nine points, Rusty five goals and eight points and Jake a goal and seven points. For good measure, Letang owned the Isles (four goals and nine points).
Combined, the fearsome foursome accounted for 13 of the 25 goals we scored against the Fish Sticks (sorry, had to get that in there).
I’ll add Carter and the flourishing third line to the mix as well.
For the Isles, it’s Jordan Eberle. Since joining the blue and orange in 2017-18, he’s tortured us to the tune of a dozen goals, including four during the 2019 playoffs and four more this season.
Still, it’s five against one. Pens in six.
It is hilarious to read the internet sports sites analysis of the series. Every one picks the Islanders. Every one. The so-called experts who write these columns know nothing about the Penguins. My favorite is the one from Prime Time Sports Talk.
My particular favorite paragraph is:
” The same could be said for second-year player Noah Dobson. His partner, Andy Greene, is much more stable. Pittsburgh has some big names, like Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin. Letang is not the same player he once was but did have four of his seven goals against New York this year. John Marino and Marcus Pettersson have been a great pair and Mike Matheson and Cody Ceci are a replacement-level third pairing. This is easily the closest of the groups, but the Islanders’ top pair slightly edges them out.”
Even with the article is positive about the Pens, it get it wrong:
“while somewhat recent trade acquisitions Kasperi Kapanen and Jason Zucker have fit in with Malkin nicely.”
The article never mentions the Carter or the third line and the huge advantage it gives the Pens. It never mentions the Pens dominance in the regular season series.
I don’t know if the Pens will win, but going in, they have be the favorite. I assume that these articles are all written by NY writers.