Penguins Previews and Prognostications

Let us cut to the chase; in truth, this is the weakest incarnation of our Pittsburgh Penguins, to be put on the ice, in nearly two decades. Nearly a full generation of Penguins fans have never suffered a team with less skill or with less grit.

With an opening statement like that, you have probably guessed that I do not hold any Great Expectations (sorry Mr. Dickens) for this season.

Having said this, you may be asking yourself, “What do you expect tOR?” What was it that Owen says in the movie “Dodgeball” when Peter Lafleur asks him “What’s our team motto?” – the response, “Aim low?”.

Well, that is my prediction, my expectations; Aim low

the Forwards

The Penguins best hopes rest on the shoulders of Sidney Crosby. As I have noted in the recent past, the captain’s shot totals per 60 minutes have been trending downward and at least one Metro division Coach has noted this and has been exploiting it. Barry Trotz of the New York Islanders, during this past post-season told an interviewer that he doesn’t worry when Crosby has the puck. He knows the probability is low that Sid will shoot, so he clogs the passing lanes.

If Crosby’s reticence to shoot the puck was tied to his wrist injury and the surgery was truly successful, then I do expect big things from Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust. If Sid starts taking advantage of the shooting lanes that other teams are giving him he will score a lot of goals out of the gate. Then when teams start respecting his shot again, that will open up the ice for Guentzel and Rust to start knocking down Goals (G).

However, if the captain’s decreased shooting stems from any other reason, aging, fear of going into traffic, or just plain complacency, then I expect nothing more than slightly above average seasons for that trio and a very long season and off season with the only ray of hope being a lottery chance for Shane Wright.

As I noted above, Guentzel’s fortunes are tied to Crosby. If his pivot comes back with any semblance of Crosby of yore, then Guentzel will have a big season. If Sid doesn’t return to form, then Guentzel will have a moderate season. Furthermore, Jake will take the same pounding he took last season. If opponents don’t have to respect Crosby shooting the puck and with the lack of an enforcer on this roster, Jake will be a punching bag for every goon out there. The kid is tough, and he will keep motoring, but his stat lines will not reach their full potential.

Like Guentzel, Rust’s season hinges on the captain. Rust is solid two-way performer and will earn his keep on the team, but his offensive numbers depend on which version of Crosby takes the ice (shooting or passing Sid).

Watching Kasperi Kapanen this preseason, I do believe he is on the verge of becoming a top Winger in the League and justifying the price the team (Jim Rutherford) paid to get him back. The young Finn’s face has been a face of intensity all preseason. With the team missing so many big guns, I don’t necessarily think the points will come at first. However should the team be able to sport all of its top forwards for any length of time, I do expect Kapanen to really collect the points. In the meantime, he looks as though he is willing to do his level best to keep the team afloat.

Evgeni Malkin is expected to miss at least two months of this season. After that two moth delay, Malkin will return to form and he will be the Malkin of at least last season. Even on a bad knee, the big Russian was the best offensive force during the playoffs for us last post-season. Furthermore, once he gets back and if Mike Sullivan reunites him with Kapanen, they should do a lot of damage offensively.

Defensively, Malkin is not as accomplished as Sid however with Kapanen’s apparent commitment to a 200’-0” game, Geno’s +/- will be a lot better than last season.

Jason Zucker has a history of being Mr. October (don’t confuse him with Reggie Jackson though). The former Minnesota Wild Winger starts out strong and then fades across the season. The Pens need Zucker to stay true to form. They need him to be the one to carry the team until Crosby gets back. Unfortunately I don’t have confidence that Zucker can shoulder the load. Against the low-end talent, the Penguins faced this preseason, the Penguins Left Wing (LW) was at best average. I don’t hold out hope for a return to glory for Zucker.

Jeff Carter was a huge surprise last season, coming over here and lighting the lamp with regularity. However, without the protection of at least Crosby, Carter is going to have to face top defenders to start the season and produce. So far this preseason the pressure to carry the team seems to have Carter trying to over-compensate right now. The veteran Center rang the post on many occasions this preseason but didn’t really reach the score sheet.

However, if or when Crosby and Malkin do get back, the Pens may be the deepest they have been at Center in a long, long time (albeit maybe the oldest). I expect to see Carter to finish the season in the 15 -20 G range.

When the team signed Danton Heinen I was underwhelmed to say the least. However, watching him this preseason, I confess, I did see a potential ray of hope. Granted the opposition he faced wasn’t top tier NHL talent, but he did play better than most other Penguins (I know that doesn’t say much), he was noticeable. He appears to be a capable 3^rd line Wing. He may only pot about 15 Gs but with Guentzel, Kapanen, and Rust those 15 Gs will be respectable.

Brock McGinn still seems to be a disappointment. I heartily agree with our friend Mike, he is a step down from Brandon Tanev. I don’tsee him doing much. He may get to double digits in Gs but barely. The worst part is, unless he was saving himself for the regular season, I don’t see him bringing much energy to the team either. For a bottom six winger he seemed to be a touch allergic to hitting opponents.

Teddy Blueger is a hard read for me. There are times when he looks like he is ready to take the next step and then he turns around and looks very stagnate. Most of this preseason, I barely noticed him and quite often wished Ron Hextall would have exposed him instead of Tanev to the draft. Both Radim Zohorna and Drew O’Connor looked equivalent to Blueger in their preseason auditions as backup Centers.

A lot of would-be experts are thinking that Blueger will have a breakout season this year. I don’t get paid the big bucks like those experts, so take it for what its worth, but I don’t expect nothing more than the same Blueger we have always seen. I expect to see some flashes this season, followed by some disappearances, particularly if Sullivan tries to saddle Blueger with the human pylon Dominik Simon.

Zach Aston-Reese missed the preseason in the COVID protocol. He just resumed skating. Like Zucker he starts out like a ball of fire then fizzles out during the season. He may anchor the 4^th line defensively, even with the millstone Simon tied around his neck, but offensively, after the first month or so, I don’t expect much scoring from him.

I don’t think I have to write anything about Simon. I am pretty sure everyone here knows what I think of him and how low my expectations of him are.

If Sullivan plays Evan Rodrigues in a top 6 or top 9 role while Crosby and Malkin are injured, we may see some good things from him. However, if Sullivan tries to play him in a bottom six role, he is going to struggle. He is not built for bottom six play. So, my expectations are dependent on how Sullivan utilizes him.

the Defense

I expect Kris Letang to be Kris Letang. He will be a Jekyll and Hyde all season. There still will be times he will display the offensive fireworks that seem to beguile the weak minded but then his defensive lapses will play havoc with Penguins Goalies. As fans our best hope is that Brian Dumoulin stays healthy and can keep covering up Letang’s defensive gaffes

I am sorry but Dumoulin did not look his normal self this preseason. I do hope that Dumoulin was just starting out slow because our Penguins need him to be on top of his game. Dumo needs to be in top form with the wandering Letang roving all over the ice, usually out of position.

It pains me to say this, but Mike Matheson may be one of the better defensemen on the team. I am hoping for the teams’ sake, part of Matheson’s preseason performance may be due to our opponents’ lack of a forecheck. The Tom Wilson affect has caused every team except the Penguins to up gun on the heavy forecheckers. I fear what might happen without Cody Ceci to take the hits for him. I fear a return to the Matheson that Florida couldn’t wait to get rid of.

I am going to combine John Marino and Marcus Pettersson because both have been trending downward since their rookie campaigns. Furthermore, neither of them have looked all that much better in the preseason. Capfriendly had Marino and Pettersson rated the Pens number two pairing before the season started. I haven’t seen anything to justify this ranking. If these two are charged with any critical ice time, Penguins Goalies had better take cover.

I am ready to give up on Pettersson but I would like to demote Marino a while and have him work on his game, similarly to the way Justin Schultz was taken in hand. Defensemen don’t hit their prime until about 27, so there is time for him to get back to his rookie season.

Chad Ruhwedel looks to be Ceci’s replacement, at least for the moment. Ruhwedel has proven to be useful in short stints, covering for injuries and is defensively responsible. For the first month or so, I would expect him to be able to cover for Matheson’s lack of Defense, but I don’t see him holding up over the course of a full season.

With the heaviness of the forecheck most teams in the Metro possess, I can see the possibility of a lot of injuries here, just like last early season only far worse. It would not surprise me to see Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Mark Friedman, and Juuso Riikola get call-ups/Ice Time. Friedman and Riikola would be my choices of call ups if I were limited to what is in the organization.

I like Friedman’s grit. As little as he is, even though he may cross the line with his play sometimes, he is a player that understands the importance of having his teammates’ back.

Riikola is another player I pull for. I don’t think has ever gotten a fair shake from our Coach. I am not deluding myself as to his effectiveness compared other Defensemen in the league. However, comparing him to what is in the organization, he is one of the better players.

the Goalies

Tristan Jarry has to play better, particularly on the High Danger Chances Against (HDCA). Over the last 3 seasons his High Danger Save Percentage (HDSv%) has been the lowest on the team (0.811). I am glad Mike Buckley is gone and I always like Andy Chiodo but I am not sure if he has been here long enough yet to help Jarry with his game. I am hopeful long term for Jarry, but at least at the start of the season, I don’t expect any miracles. The team defense has to be tight for Jarry. If the kid faces to many HDCA he may get rattled for the season.

Casey DeSmith looked shaky all preseason. He has fared better than Jarry in the past in HDCA but I am not sure what is up with him. I honestly thought both Lindberg and Domingue outplayed him. For administrative purposes, like Sullivan, I may have made the same roster decisions, but I certainly would not have kept DeSmith around on merit.

the Coach

Sullivan learned absolutely nothing over these last four frustrating playoffs. He appears to have doubled down on his allergy for physical players with his roster moves already. His insistence on playing higher paid, aging veterans with little to no upside over kids is maddening. Furthermore, his preference of playing veterans is hard to understand, especially when the teams that won the Cups were heavily laced with kids like Rust, Matt Murray, Conor Sheary, Tom Kuhnhackl, Scott Wilson, and Oskar Sundqvist.

Because of Sullivan’s obstinance, allergies to gritty players, and lack of trust in kids I don’t see the Penguins controlling their own fortunes. Barring injuries to other teams, breakdowns in team chemistries of other Metro Division teams, a rash of health and fountain of youth for the team’s veterans, I can easily see this season as the end of the Penguins Playoff appearance streak.

the Fallout

In an exchange of comments, I recently had with Pens4ever we discussed what we though the Penguins should do at the trade deadline if or when (if you see the glass half empty) Hextall finds his team on the outside looking in come trade deadline. His question was do the Penguins try and trade Letang and Malkin. As I see the Penguins chances of doing just that, finishing out of the money in April, let me expand on my reply.

No, I don’t see the Penguins trading either Malkin or Letang. First and foremost, in Malkin’s case, he doesn’t go anywhere unless he wants to go. He has a full No Trade, No Movement Clause in his contract. Unless he wants out, he is here until April.

Letang will be easier to move but not by much. Letang has a Modified No Trade Clause. He provides a list of 18 teams to which he will accept a trade. All he has to do is list 18 teams that will not meet the Penguins asking price and he goes nowhere just like Malkin.

Even if Hextall can trade them, the return he can get isn’t all that much.

No, in the case of the Penguins finding themselves as sellers at the trade deadline my moves would depend on how the kids in Wilkes Barre – Scranton (WBS) are doing. If Nathan Légaré and Samuel Poulin are developing as scouts project them to develop I would look to trade Zucker and Rust. The team should be able to get good return on those players from a team with playoff/Cup aspirations.

I also would keep my eye on Valtteri Puustenin in WBS. He could also make a veteran expendable, or he could be added to in a deal to up a different deal for a higher return.

There still does seem to be some teams that think Pettersson would be worth kicking the tires on. After this season with only three more years after this season left on his contract, someone may takea flier on him. I don’t know what I can get for him, but I definitely try and move him out, if for no other reason than to clear roster space.

If I commit to a full rebuild then Dumoulin would be another trade I investigate. He is a solid, solid Defenseman and could net a really good return from a team in win now mode at the deadline