With 27 games down, roughly a third of our Penguins 2021-22 schedule is in the books. Since it’s a simple matter of multiplying present production by three (okay, technically 3.03) I thought it might be fun to do some projecting and see how our Pens might wind up, stats-wise.
The lone exception is Sidney Crosby. I assumed Sid will play in all our remaining games and projected his numbers accordingly. (Hope I didn’t unwittingly invoke the dreaded PenguinPoop curse.) Since he has yet to play, I plugged in Evgeni Malkin’s numbers from last season.
Here goes:
|
SCORING |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Skaters |
Pos |
GP |
G |
A |
PTS |
|
Jake Guentzel |
LW |
72 |
45 |
36 |
81 |
|
Sidney Crosby |
C |
69 |
18 |
51 |
69 |
|
Evan Rodrigues |
C/RW |
82 |
24 |
33 |
57 |
|
Kris Letang |
RD |
69 |
3 |
48 |
51 |
|
Jeff Carter |
C |
72 |
24 |
21 |
45 |
|
Kasperi Kapanen |
RW |
82 |
18 |
27 |
45 |
|
Danton Heinen |
LW/RW |
82 |
24 |
15 |
39 |
|
John Marino |
RD |
82 |
3 |
33 |
36 |
|
Brock McGinn |
RW |
82 |
21 |
12 |
33 |
|
Teddy Blueger |
C |
82 |
18 |
12 |
30 |
|
Jason Zucker |
LW |
82 |
12 |
18 |
30 |
|
Evgeni Malkin |
C |
33 |
8 |
20 |
28 |
|
Bryan Rust |
RW |
36 |
6 |
21 |
27 |
|
Mike Matheson |
LD |
72 |
3 |
24 |
27 |
|
Zach Aston-Reese |
LW |
75 |
3 |
21 |
24 |
|
Marcus Pettersson |
LD |
69 |
3 |
15 |
18 |
|
Drew O’Connor |
C/LW |
48 |
9 |
6 |
15 |
|
Brian Dumoulin |
LD |
66 |
0 |
15 |
15 |
|
Dominik Simon |
LW/RW |
63 |
3 |
9 |
12 |
|
Mark Friedman |
RD |
33 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
|
Brian Boyle |
C |
54 |
6 |
0 |
6 |
|
Tristan Jarry |
G |
64 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
|
Chad Ruhwedel |
RD |
69 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
|
Sam Lafferty |
C/RW |
21 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
|
Juuso Riikola |
LD |
15 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
|
Casey DeSmith |
G |
18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Pierre Olivier-Joseph |
LD |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
GOALTENDING |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Goalies |
|
GP |
SH |
AVE |
SVPCT |
|
Tristan Jarry |
G |
64 |
9 |
1.92 |
.934 |
|
Casey DeSmith |
G |
18 |
3 |
3.04 |
.905 |
The numbers are eye catching, especially with respect to Jake Guentzel (a projected 45 goals) and our middle-six forwards. Based on current production rates and barring injuries, GM Ron Hextall’s key free agent pickups, Danton Heinen, Brock McGinn and Evan Rodrigues all are on pace for 20-plus goals. So is Jeff Carter, Hextall’s big acquisition at last season’s trade deadline.
Other clubs have gotten far less from higher profile signings. Boston’s Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno (five goals combined) come to mind.
If present trends continue, Crosby and Kris Letang will enjoy strong seasons offensively, despite a bit of a dip in goal production. John Marino is emerging as a solid point producer from the back end. I’ll take 18 goals from Teddy Blueger any day of the week. Likewise, if Tristan Jarry stays on course he’ll far exceed expectations.
Among the most glaring disappointments? Kasperi Kapanen (from whom much is expected), Jason Zucker (on pace for only a dozen goals) and Zach Aston-Reese, although ZAR’s offensive shortcoming are mitigated to an extent by strong defensive play and a willingness to take the body (a projected 288 hits). Given his elite skating and puck skills, you’d like to see more from Mike Matheson.
Although he’s shone in terms of possession (59.5 Corsi), ditto Dominik Simon.
As a team? The Pens are on pace for roughly 99 points, give or take a point. It’s generally believed that 95-96 points will be enough to qualify for the postseason.
Rick
Love the projections. I don’t think E-Rod will reach his 24g and 33a projection for a couple of reasons. Once Rust and Malkin return his ice time both 5 on 5 and on the Power play will be significantly reduced. Second I think his overall game will begin to slip.
I’m looking at Letang’s numbers which to me are a problem – He’s playing a 100 minutes a game and 1:30 on every Power Play opportunity and he has 1 goal yet fans are talking about how well he’s playing. That’s a head scratcher for me.
Hey Mike,
I hear ya’ about Letang’s goal production…or lack of. But count me among the folks who think he’s played really well this season. Actually, in my eyes, the last couple of seasons. And believe me, I used to tear my hair out and scream bloody murder over some of his decisions in the past.
I don’t know if it’s attributable to the fact that maybe Tanger’s lost a step, but he seems to be playing more within himself these days. When he does that, honestly I’m more than okay with him. Too, those handful of games we played without him this season were a real eye-opener. At least to me, he really is a vital cog. Perhaps second only to Sid in terms of importance.
Rick