Penguins Update: A Peek Inside the Numbers

Being an old-timer, I confess to going a lot by the eye test when I evaluate players. And I’ll be the first to admit that I’m a little behind the curve when it comes to utilizing the plethora of advanced stats available these days.

Corsi For and Against, Fenwick For and Against, Scoring Chances For and Against, High Danger Scoring Chances For and Against. Whew! A guy could literally drown in a sea of stats.

With our Penguins idle last night, I thought I’d peruse Natural Stat Trick to get a feel for how our guys are doing on an individual basis. For my evaluation, I decided to keep things simple.

In my mind, the aim of any hockey player is to be on the ice for goals for your team while helping to prevent goals against your team. So I ranked our players based on the difference between actual Goals For Percentage and Expected Goals For Percentage. All values are for 5v5 play.

I confess there are some surprises. Among the forwards, kids Anthony Angello and Radim Zohorna are far exceeding expectations, as is Kasperi Kapanen. Mark Jankowski and Zach Aston-Reese have performed much better than I thought, at least against expected values.

On flip side, our big guns are in the middle of the pack. Not to pick on him, but Jason Zucker’s negative metrics reinforce the notion that he’s underachieving. Ditto mistake-prone Sam Lafferty and, surprisingly, Evan Rodrigues and Frederick Gaudreau.

The defense was more true to form. The values serve to reinforce the notion that Cody Ceci, Brian Dumoulin and Kris Letang are enjoying strong seasons. I was mildly surprised to learn that Marcus Pettersson has been on the ice for the fewest 5v5 goals against among the regulars and that, overall, he’s done a decent job. A clear-cut case where the stats don’t necessarily match my perception.

It should be noted that metrics don’t take a lot of things into account. Namely, how a player is deployed and what role he fills, who he plays with and who he plays against.

Still, I found this interesting. Hope you will, too.

Back in the Saddle

Gaudreau and Evgeni Malkin are cleared for contact and have joined the team for the road trip to Washington. Sparkplug Brandon Tanev, who skated with the taxi squad but isn’t fully recovered, will also make the trip.