Penguins Update: Corsi and the Cup

A week or so ago I was reading an article on another blog that displayed the Penguins’ possession stats at 5v5. They were impressive across the board. Yet there we were, sitting 5-5-1 at the time with one regulation win.

Scanning team Corsi rankings this morning, I noticed the Flyers…seventh overall in points percentage…are dead last (44.55) and the eleventh-place Capitals aren’t much better (25th at 47.51). The Islanders, also ahead of us in the standings, are only marginally better than the Caps with a Corsi of 48.72.

Meanwhile, the Pens with their glistening 53.64 Corsi sit a distant 20th in points percentage.

It got me to thinking. How important is puck possession with regard to winning the Stanley Cup?

I decided to do a little digging.

Before I review the results, a little background. Corsi is an advanced statistic used in the National Hockey League to measure shot attempt differential while at even strength play. This includes shots on goal, missed shots on goal, and blocked shot attempts towards the opposition’s net minus the same shot attempts directed at your own team’s net.

The first table displays the Corsi and corresponding Corsi ranks for Stanley Cup champions, President’s Trophy winners and our Penguins dating back to 2007-08, when the statistic was first kept.

Not surprisingly, there is a strong correlation between Corsi and capturing the Cup. From ’07-08 through ’15-16, Cup winners ranked a shade above 5th in team Corsi, and that includes our ’08-09 Pens…an anomaly at 19th. Three Cup winners led the league in Corsi, three others…including the ’15-16 Pens…finished 2nd.

However, over the past few seasons there’s been a pronounced shift. The average Corsi rank of the past four Cup winners is 13.75, and that includes last season’s Lightning squad that ranked 5th.

There’s a similar skew among Presidents’ Trophy winners. Going back to the ’14-15 Rangers (20th in Corsi), top regular-season point getters have ranked an average of 12th in team Corsi. The present league-leader in points, Toronto, ranks 16th.

New Pens president of hockey operations Brian Burke took some heat recently from metrics-oriented blogs with the following observation:

“Pittsburgh’s the last team to win with a small, fast team. The last three Cup winners have been big, they play long pants hockey, they play ugly hockey. I think we need to look at that and see, have we kept up with the Joneses here?”

You know what? The numbers appear to support Burke’s claim.

	Stanley Cup Champion			Presidents’ Trophy Winner			Penguins
Season	Team	Corsi	Rank	Team	Corsi	Rank	Corsi	Rank
20-21				TOR	49.75	16	53.64	5
19-20	TBL	52.25	5	BOS	50.85	12	50.86	11
18-19	STL	51.50	10	TBL	51.59	9	49.73	15
17-18	WSH	47.96	24	NSH	51.48	10	52.28	5
16-17	PGH	50.14	16	WSH	51.81	4	50.14	16
15-16	PGH	52.72	2	WSH	51.04	14	52.72	2
14-15	CHI	53.60	2	NYR	49.48	20	52.82	5
13-14	LAK	56.82	1	BOS	53.85	4	48.64	22
12-13	CHI	54.14	4	CHI	54.14	4	48.99	18
11-12	LAK	54.74	2	VAN	52.75	7	54.23	3
10-11	BOS	50.71	14	VAN	52.23	6	52.73	4
09-10	CHI	56.54	1	WSH	52.88	3	52.06	6
08-09	PGH	48.07	19	SJS	54.22	5	48.07	19
07-08	DET	58.77	1	DET	58.77	1	45.48	29
Average			7.8			8.2		11.4

I also looked at the overall league standing (based on points percentage) for teams that led the league in Corsi and for those that had the worst Corsi.

The results were somewhat more predictable. Teams that paced the league in Corsi generally (but not always) finished higher in the standings, and teams that had the worst Corsi were usually among the worst teams.

In conclusion, is puck possession important? Yes. But it’s not the be-all-end-all factor that some might lead you to believe.

	Best Corsi			Worst Corsi
Season	Team	Corsi	Standing	Team	Corsi	Standing
20-21	COL	56.63	8	PHI	44.55	7
19-20	VEG	54.76	8	DET	45.99	31
18-19	SJS	54.87	6	OTT	44.90	31
17-18	CAR	54.48	21	NYR	45.92	24
16-17	LAK	54.99	22	ARI	45.04	28
15-16	LAK	56.37	8	COL	44.20	21
14-15	LAK	55.34	18	BUF	37.53	30
13-14	LAK	56.82	9	TOR	42.82	22
12-13	LAK	56.30	8	CGY	47.36	26
11-12	DET	54.90	9	MIN	44.26	24
10-11	SJS	53.56	5	ANA	44.34	9
09-10	CHI	56.54	3	FLA	44.57	28
08-09	DET	57.25	3	PHX	45.40	26
07-08	DET	58.77	1	ATL	42.89	28
Average			9.2			23.9