Read any Penguins blog or media outlet, including PenguinPoop, and you’re liable to see Marcus Pettersson’s name pop up with stunning frequency. As in, “…if the Pens could only trade Pettersson…”
You’d almost think he’s the poster child for all that ails the black and gold these days.
The native of Skelleftea, Sweden, could be excused for feeling a little like Rodney Dangerfield. I’ll tell ya, I don’t get no respect, no respect…
It wasn’t always so. When Pettersson first arrived in the ‘Burgh in December 2018 following a trade with Anaheim for prickly Daniel Sprong, he proved to be a revelation, almost single-handedly steadying a previously shaky defensive corps. The rangy Swede even received votes for the Calder Trophy.
How did he morph from a player of promise into trade bait? Is he really that bad?
Right or wrong, image counts for a lot. Going strictly by the eye test, the 25-year-old defenseman isn’t the prettiest guy to watch. Although he has a long skating stride and uses his stick and Pterandon wingspan to effectively defend and control gaps, he isn’t very mobile. In fact, for two seasons running Pettersson absorbed the most hits of player in the league. In 2019-20 alone he was mashed 249 times…a staggering 78 more than the runner up. So much for being able to get out of harm’s way.
Although he willingly takes the hits and tries to move opponents away from the net, Pettersson usually gets the worst of one-on-one battles due to his stick-figure physique (177 pounds spread over a lanky 6’3” frame).
Offensively, he makes a nice, feathery outlet pass. But his shot couldn’t break a pane of glass.
All this would lead you to believe that No. 28 isn’t all that effective. However, looks can be deceiving…especially in Pettersson’s case.
His advanced stats, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, tell a completely different story. Here’s how he rated among the team’s top eight defenders in terms of ice time:
Corsi For%: 51.4% (2nd)
Goals For%: 58.0% (3rd)
xGF%: 51.5% (2nd)
Scoring Chance %: 53.4% (2nd)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 47.9% (5th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 8.5% (5th)
On-ice save%: .935% (2nd)
Goals/60: .17 (6th)
Assist/60: .59 (5th)
Points/60: .76 (6th)
With only nine points in 47 games, offense clearly isn’t a strong suit. But Pettersson registered a WAR of 72 percent (with 50 percent being break-even) during what was considered a down year and 80 percent over the past three seasons.
Impressive.
Put in perspective, defensive stalwart Brian Dumoulin had a 71 percent WAR over that span. Kris Letang (59 percent) and Mike Matheson (42 percent) lag well behind, as does Cody Ceci (only 26 percent despite a solid ‘20-21 campaign).
Yet despite his strong metrics, Pettersson’s ice time dipped by nearly three minutes a game while he and partner John Marino were supplanted on the second pairing by Ceci and Matheson. A downgrade from the season before.
So why does Pettersson appear to be so undervalued?
I’ll sum it up in two words…his contract. After agreeing to a team-friendly one-year deal at $874 K during the summer of 2019, former GM Jim Rutherford inked him to a five-year extension in January 2020 worth $20.1 million, with an AAV of just over $4 million.
That’s a lot to pay for a player who seems to be settling into a third-pairing role. Especially given the Pens’ tight cap situation and the fact that Pierre-Olivier Joseph, who appears to have a stronger all-around game, is waiting in the wings….and at a much more favorable rate. Which suddenly makes Pettersson and his contract excess baggage.
Through no fault of his own, Marcus is a “victim of soicumstance,” to quote Curley of The Three Stooges.
Hopefully, things will work out. Perhaps Pettersson will regain the coaching staff’s trust and re-establish himself as an important cog on the Pens’ blue line. Or maybe general manager Ron Hextall will find a new home for Marcus (Anaheim/Detroit/Montreal?) where his quietly steady game and skill-set might be more appreciated.
In the meantime, he figures to be a fixture in offseason trade buzz.
All the analytics aside, any of the Pens games I could get up here.. not many.. in my eyes he didn’t play well, not $4 million a season worth on the third pairing, 9 points in 47 games.
But after the draft , unless something changes on Wed. we are stuck with him and Zucker.
No team will take on either contract, for players who can’t or don’t produce.
So in other words…another 1st round playoff exit??
That is my prediction.
Hey Pen’s4ever,
I agree about the eye test with Pettersson. Maybe it’s because he’s so rangy and lanky, but he often seems kind of discombobulated for a better way to describe it, especially when he’s engaged in a physical confrontation with an opposing player.
Unless something changes rather dramatically in the coming weeks, I don’t think we’ve improved this offseason. Maybe some of the kids will step in and surprise, but that’s a big if at this stage, especially given Sullivan’s preference for veterans.
Heck, as currently comprised we may have trouble just getting to the playoffs.
Rick
Hey Pen’s4ever and Rick,
I hate to comment just yet on whether or not the Pens will make the playoffs, teams are changing and it is hard to predict whether for the better or worse. At the beginning of the season this past January, I would have though the Pens to even get into the playoffs let alone win the division; I would never have thunk NJD and Phi would have had such epically horrible melt downs. Nor would I have believed Bos and Was would fade.
So, who knows, maybe all the moving players just won’t gel for their new teams and the Pens sneak back into the playoffs? However, I do fear a tough season.
I did just hear some talk about Kemper again. Maybe they will take Pettersson for him or Zucker? That would free up some Cap space.
.
Hey Rick,
Great Stuff as always.
However, let me remind you that Dominik Simon was the kind of those CORSI stats and he STUNK and he didn’t even finish the season last year in the NHL. Perhaps the biggest reason for this may be the many confounding variables that underlie these stats.
What am I talking about?
Sam Reinhart was the forward who spent the most TOI against Pettersson and as good as Reinhart may be, he was a -28 last season; that could go a very long way to explaining why Pettersson’s CORSI and advanced data didn’t look so bad – he was sheltered.
Sorry, like Caleb wrote below, if JR hadn’t rushed out and signed him to a fairly big and long contract, I would be more than willing to see if Pettersson really grows into his contract. However, unless the team could dump Matheson, they can’t afford to keep him around.
Unfortunately, JR did price Pettersson out to a level that could seriously harm this club. $4 million is way to much for a bottom pairing. (I know, Marino got overpaid too).
Also, I’m thinking to get a team to take him, if outside of the Islanders, they’re going to ask us to retain some salary, In my opinion I would retain no more than $500,000, I think anything over that is to much, and then it won’t really be worth it for us.
I think holding $500,000 is acceptable to get another team to take him, I think it will make it a lot easier for us to move him as well. I think in most teams eyes a Pettersson for $3,500,000 is a lot more reasonable and manageable to take a shot on him.
Rick, great article.
Would love to keep Pettersson on the team if he was about half the price, as you’ve stated the main reason for everyone wanting to unload him, is simply the price tag for what he offers.
In all honesty, our best bet for a trade is with the Islanders, I know, I know try to avoid trading in your division, but they’re a team that can turn Pettersson into the player that he’s costing. They already did it, Adam Pelech & Ryan Pulock have become studs, especially Pelech. So if we really want to move Pettersson and his $4,025,175, then I think that’s the best way to go, as they would probably see more value in him as they could coach him up as they did Pelech
Rick, The Other Rick & Caleb
IMO – there are two reasons why Pettersson is expendable. One and you
spoke on this is his salary and two I think the Pen’s know there is a dire
need for a physical back liner. Just the fact that Letang led all of our D-Man
in hits should send a strong message to management.
Also, Caleb in all due respect Pettersson will not be an Islander. Hextall won’t
trade him within the division and the Islanders although sitting with some Cap
room have important signings that need to be addressed. Pelech, Cizikas, Palmieri, Sorokin and Beauvillier.
Cap estimate: Pelech – 4.0 to 4.5 mil per year
Cizikas – 2.2 to 2.5
Palmieri – 5.0 to 5.5
Beauvillier- 3.0 to 3.5
Then they still have Zajac who even on a team-friendly deal is looking at
2.5 to 3.0. On the low end, it puts them at 16.5 and about 1.1 under the Cap.
On the high end, it puts them at 19.0 and about 2.4 over the Cap.
The Isles have some serious work to do internally. I do think that moving
Pettersson will take a 3rd team being involved and may also require
multiple players. This week should be interesting. GO PEN’S
Amen to that Mike,
This D is full of marshmallows, they need to get rid of half of the clones in the system and get some physicality on the rear guard.
Also, agreed, I can’t see Hextall trading within the division
Meant to say this but got interrupted as typed and forgot where I was, but that is why I liked the Laatsch pick. Not going to say that I think he will ever make the team, but it does feel like a paradigm shift.