Following an encouraging five-game winning streak built largely on the stellar goaltending of Tristan Jarry, our Penguins have hit the skids once again and are teetering on the thin edge of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. For the most part we continue to ring up impressive possession numbers (seventh in the league in Corsi). Lots of razzle-dazzle. But the puck’s not going in.
There are myriad reasons the offense has been in a deep freeze (seven goals in our past four games). Evgeni Malkin and now Bryan Rust are out of the lineup and Sidney Crosby is still playing his way back into form. That’s three of the team’s top offensive players missing in action in one form or another.
Lacking a true power element aside from an aging Jeff Carter, we have difficulty breaching the prime scoring areas against teams that clog the shooting lanes. And we’re getting next-to-nothing from our defensive corps (a paltry four goals).
Obviously, changes are needed. Coach Mike Sullivan’s same-old-same-old ain’t cuttin’ it.
It’s pretty much a given that Jake Guentzel should stay with Crosby. While Sid’s hardly at the top of his game, it’s no coincidence Jake’s point scoring streak started roughly when No. 87 returned to the lineup. They go together like peas and carrots, or peanut butter and jelly if you prefer.
The “Grind Line” has been fairly effective as well. Teddy Blueger and newcomer Brock McGinn have combined for 11 goals. While Zach Aston-Reese needs a Sherpa guide to find the net, he provides a solid defensive conscience with a degree of physicality (a team-high 80 hits).
The middle six? A whole ‘nother matter. Sullivan needs to blow things up and start from scratch. Actually, Sully just needs to swallow his ego or whatever’s getting in the way and reunite a combination that was working wonders until he mysteriously consigned it to mothballs.
During the stretch when Covid and injuries combined to wipe out half our team (or so it seemed) assistant coach Todd Reirden assembled the Evan Rodrigues–Jason Zucker–Kasperi Kapanen line for the November 4 clash with the Flyers.
Although they didn’t register a point that night, the trio had the best Corsi (57.14) of any black-and-gold unit. The next game E-Rod, Zucks and Kasper broke onto the scoresheet in a big way. The line accounted for two of the Pens 5v5 goals, with Kapanen adding a third tally while skating with another unit.
The trio was once again held off the score sheet against Chicago, but had a dominant game possession wise (72.22 Corsi). During a November 11 clash with high-flying Florida they paced all Pens lines in Corsi (66.67) and contributed a clutch goal by Rodrigues as well.
While we cratered against Ottawa in an awful showing north of the border, the line put on a show. Rodrigues tallied two goals and Kapanen added a third. For the night, the trio combined for three goals and five points.
Despite their extraordinary chemistry, the line was broken up by Sullivan ahead of the lopsided and dispiriting 6-1 loss to Washington on November 14.
I understand…to an extent. Crosby had returned to the lineup, reclaiming his customary spot on the top line between Guentzel and Rust. In turn, bumping Carter to the second line between Kapanen and Zucker. A combo that, frankly, has been an unmitigated disaster.
In the 10 games they’ve skated as a unit, Carter’s tallied two goals and four points to go with a minus-four. Kapanen, a goal and four helpers (minus-two). With a goal, an assist and a minus-three, Zucker’s completely dried up over that stretch. His lone marker actually came during a rare shift with Rodrigues on November 22 against Winnipeg. Since then he’s gone stone cold (no points in five games).
Now contrast that with the E-Rod-Kapanen-Zucker trio, which combined for six goals and 13 points in five games. I’m no rocket scientist, but which line would you rather have?
Exactly.
To me it’s a no-brainer. Resurrect what was arguably the team’s best line this season and use Carter’s unit as a melting pot of sorts. Given that Carter just takes the puck and goes to the net…part of the reason he doesn’t work with Kapanen and Zucker, who both like to carry the biscuit…team him with Danton Heinen, who specializes in sneaking in behind the play and cleaning up the type of garbage Carter creates with his shoot-first approach.
Plug rookie Drew O’Connor onto that line as well to create a bit of a power unit (Heaven forbid). Until a better solution presents itself or Rust returns, I’m okay with parking Dominik Simon next to Crosby and Guentzel in the short run. He’s worked at least reasonably well with them in the past.
Another option…recall the “Big Z,” Radim Zohorna from the Baby Pens and find a spot for him.
My two cents for how to jump-start our offense.
Morning Rick,
Did I read that possibly Bryan Rust could be a trade candidate soon ? That is an interesting speculation.
He had a career year last year and if he had played a full regular NHL season he would have had 32 goals theoretically. His $3.5 million dollar current salary will probably be much higher next year. Maybe $ 5.5 to 6 million ?? Compare Rust to Zucker. No comparison.
Here is the rub Rick…Letang will resign for a lesser amount.He has said that in Canadian sports news programs this past summer. So if he resigns for new $ 5.3 million contract and Rust resigns at $ 5.5 million, they basically cancel each other out. Plus Mario is staying around and that makes things easier for Letang.
Then there is Geno. You think he will resign for $6 million ? Not after his good buddy # 8 resigned for $ 9.5 million for 5 years..Not going to happen. Maybe 7.5 million or 8 million short term for 3 years .That is more realistic. So at the end of the day we may save 1 to 2 million in Cap space Max !!! Sorry folks but that small $ amount does not work.
We already know from the last 3 years of FAILURE that these above individuals can NOT deliver us a Stanley Cup alone.
We need more elite level talent on the cheap! How do we do that ?
We need several first round draft picks or the equivalent in first year prospects .
Just a thought..
Why not trade Rust for Evander Kane and let them retain half of his salary and take their first draft pick in 2022 as compensation ? Before you shoot me Rick, remember Phil Kessel in Toronto before he won us 2 Cups. Toronto brass was so pissed off they paid us to take him … They retained salary… I think the same could be said with Kane.He has 3 more years on his contract as well. He was drafted #4 over all. The NHL cleared him of any wrong doing regarding the gambling allegations and BTW a Judge just gave him SOLE CUSTODY of his young child and ordered his ex-wife to under go a psychiatric evaluation, and ordered her to stop defaming Kane reports say. I think it is worth a look. We did it before and it worked.
Your thoughts…or anyone else’s.
Cheers
Jim
Good morning, my friend.
See my newest article that you inspired with your question about Rust.
Rick
Hi Rick,
Great points as always sir.
Something has to be done to the bottom six if we expect to be a play off contender come April- May.
For me the fact that the Pen’s sale is 99% done and everybody will have their BIG pay day, maybe now the real long term plans can start to occur. I wondered why earlier in the summer that the Pen’s ownership did NOT try to sign Letang and possibly Malkin to contract extensions.They obviously did not feel that they would help their sale process.
Now that is over and time to get serious. As we said many times, the Pen’s farm system is rated LAST in the league and we have no Cap space to improve it.There is only one way to fix that problem.
Goal scoring…. the real reason we do not score goals is our bottom six and all our so called talent in WBS are not pure goal scorers… They are just journey men players or older players in the decline of their careers.The Pen’s need a refresh of real talent . I am amazed at the rapid progress of Chicago, Detroit, Carolina,Ottawa, New Jersey ,Rangers, Minnesota, Columbus,Calgary…I am missing a few….but you get my point.
I agree with what you wrote but in my opinion it does not go far enough.The status quo is not acceptable…
One last terrible thought Rick,and we need to be reminded of it….This new Covid variant may shut down the league again or at best restrict fans coming into the rinks and that WILL DRIVE DOWN THE SALARY CAP for 2022 . What happens if the new salary cap for 2022-2023 drops 5 million ???? That could happen.Many other countries are shutting down or banning large sporting events and or large gatherings of people. The NHL will take another hit.
Plus remember Rick the entire league is vaccinated…. Covid is still out of control…
Not good.
Jim
This bottom six you refer to needs to be greatly upgraded if we plan to have any success chasing a Cup in 2022.
Rick & The Other Rick
Just a couple of quick points:
Everyone’s getting way too excited on Rodriguez – The guy is actually playing on our first Power Play unit “Geeeeesssshh
This is not an ingredient for long-term success. This is his 9th season in the NHL and has never scored more that (9) goals in a season – he currently has 8. I’m already seeing signs of regression in his play. Also, he’s another guy that can slide by during the regular season but will have zero impact in the playoffs. “I’m not drinking the E-Rod kool-aid”.
As for Crosby he’s the last guy on the planet we should be worried about. It’s just a matter of time before the rust
comes off and he’s clicking on all cylinders.
Has anyone else noticed that the Kris LeTurnover that we all know is slowly but surely beginning to rear its ugly head.
I’m watching him in the Edmonton game and he’s making tape-to-tape passes to the Oiler players “WT?” He was back
to his old ways and handling the puck like it was Covid 19. How many times did he get caught up the ice that lead to
odd-man breaks for Edmonton? You can’t beat the best offensive team in the league giving up 2 on 1’s the entire game.
Hey Mike,
Not going to argue with you over E-Rod’s long term value, but I would love to try and build his stock up as much as possible and trade him at the deadline.
Letang is Letang. He is Jekyll and Hyde. When he is on offensively he gives the Koolaid drinkers something to talk about. Defensively, even when he is at his best he is a nightmare. I also give 58 credit for his grit, but defensively, he is at the bottom of the rung.
Crosby, my fear is that in an effort to increase gate receipts, they rushed him back and potentially caused some permanent injury. Nothing ticked me off more than when I read Dan Kingarski whining about ticket sales. No doubt there are still some people afraid of going to a game. But as you said, Crosby more than likely will get back around. People wrote him off right before the Sullivan era and he went on to win 2 Conn Smythe trophys
Hey Mike,
Good to hear from you as always. Normally you and I are in agreement about pretty much everything, but I’m going to push back a bit about Rodrigues. I think he’s turned into a nice little player for us who can slot up and down the lineup and fill a variety of roles. Unlike some of our guys who seem dependent on playing with certain linemates, E-Rod’s been playing well and driving possession no matter where he’s slotted. I thought he worked especially well with Zucker and Kapanen. They just seemed to have an innate chemistry. Kind of like the HBK Line when Sullivan first put them together.
Having said that, do I think he’s going to be a 60-70 point scorer? No. If we get 15-20 goals out of him, honestly that would be great. Kind of like found money.
Wish I shared your confidence about Sid. I need to keep in mind that he missed training camp and then some and is essentially playing his way back into game shape. And I know full well from personal experience you can’t underestimate the negative effects of Covid.
It’s just that he’s making mistakes that I’ve never seen him make before. He’s normally so sharp and spot on.
I haven’t been focusing on Letang too much. A quick glance at his stats tells me his turnover rate is pretty much in line with where it usually is…about one per game. He does have a tendency to try to do too much at times and that’s when his game unravels.
The player I’m concerned about is Dumoulin. Dear Lord, he’s been awful…a shadow of the defensive pillar he’s been. I hate to think he’s in decline at age 30, but he’s not moving very well and seems out of position a lot. Maybe Covid’s had an effect on him as well.
Rick
Hey Rick,
I may have to disagree with you a bit here. I don’t think Sullivan is using any of his line combinations right.
Hands down the top line (most effective) right now was and once again should be
Guentzel – E-Rod – Kapanen
Sillivan won’t get over his idiocy and his personal issues. I am talking about his scapegoating of Kapanen. The moron coach is dumping all his hatred on Kappy, since he doesn’t have Malkin around right now. He stupidly benched The Finn and paid the price. Until the clown coach pull off that brain dead maneuver, the team was knotted up 2 – 2. After Smellivan benched Kappy, the Oilers ran off 3 straight, unanswered goals. Edmonton’s own McD served up more Goals than the hamburger chain serves up patties thanks to our Coach shooting his own team in the foot.
Coach Mike is the problem not Kappy. Send the glorified doorman to the press box, he will do less damage there.
Oh, wait. let him keep going and I will get my wish a top 5 pick, maybe even Shane Wright.
After Z-R-K, the 2nd line really should be McGinn – Blueger – Heinen
No offense to the Captain but he isn’t playing all that well 5-on-5. For the teams sake, he should only be skating 3rd line right now. (Zucker – Crosby – Carter)
with the 4th line; ZAR-Boyle-O’Connor-Lafferty.
Again that is if the goal of the team is to get into the playoffs and only until Geno and Rust get back, but I am all for status quo this year. Letting Sullivan stumble and bumble his way through the season will only increase the probability that we get a good draft pick. Granted, even a blind squirrel can find a nut at some point, and should Jarry get hot again, anything is possible but I would rather take a step back this year to set the future table.
Just my 2 cents my friend
Sorry not Z-R -K but G – R – K
Hey Other Rick,
I agree that Sullivan is at least partly culpable in the Kapanen situation. You keep running a player out there with linemates he doesn’t have chemistry with and sooner or later things are bound to turn sour. The same thing happened last season with Zucker and, to a lesser extent, Kapanen. Zucker had absolutely no chemistry with Malkin, yet it was like they were bolted together.
I truly don’t get Sullivan’s obstinance at times. Like cutting off your nose to spite your face…just to a prove a point. Meanwhile, the team suffers.
Having expressed that, I will say that Kapanen has a little bit of dog in him at times. I’ve seen him coast and give up on plays more than I’d like. And is it me, or does he look slower this year? I just haven’t seen too many examples of that blazing speed he’s displayed in the past.
Again, my answer would be to put him back with Rodrigues and Zucker. According to article on Pittsburgh Hockey Now, Sullivan did shake up the lines in practice. Alas, E-Rod-Zucker-Kapanen wasn’t among the combinations (surprise). All they did was lead the NHL in expected goals for percentage during their time together.
Who needs that? (Sarcasm.)
Rick