It’s almost that time again folks. The Penguins Prospects Development Camp opens this weekend and runs through a scrimmage on Tuesday. The long summer following last season’s playoff failure is now a fading memory. The regular season is almost here. Many of us here, writers and readers have tried keeping up to date; for some the air is filled with unbridled optimism, for others there is only the trepidation wrought by no significant changes.
Several people have asked me recently what I have thought about our team’s chances this coming season. Well, despite my lack of writing recently, I have been following our Pittsburgh Penguins very closely. I just haven’t had time to organize my thoughts into articles and or often simply replying to some great articles our friend Rick Buker has been posting.
There is a lot I can say so I will limit my discussion to just Centers today.
the Centers
The Center position was once the jewel of our Penguins crown. When winning their last 2 Cups, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Nick Bonino, and Matt Cullen, set the standard, at Center, for the league.
Unfortunately, Crosby and Malkin are both injured. Neither will not be in the line up opening night. Furthermore they are 34 and 35 years of age respectively, they aren’t as young as they once were.
Most reports have Crosby out the first 2 weeks, or 4 – 5 games. Some more pessimistic writers are suggesting the captain will be out 4 weeks. Even if Sid is only out the 1st four games, that will mean the team could be in serious trouble to start the season. In those first 4 games, our seafaring Sphenisciformes will be facing perhaps the class of the league in Goal; Andrei Vasilevsky, rookie phenom Spencer Knight, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Anton Khubodin.
If we delude ourselves into thinking this team is a contender, rather than a pretender, then who really cares. The 4 – 5 games sans both Crosby and Malkin and a further 15 games without Malkin, after that, should not mean much in the grand scheme of things. Our hometown heroes may not finish with the Presidents trophy (of that delusion) but they would certainly be loaded for bear once the playoff started, a la the Tampa Bay Lightning did last season.
Unfortunately, in the real world, the world we exist in, the prime material plane of existence, even the first 4 – 5 games without both Crosby and Malkin could be the difference between the last playoff spot and getting a ticket in the Shane Wright sweepstakes. (Quite frankly, I would not be all that upset with getting a top pick in the draft for a change.)
Perhaps the worst part of the opening of the season, without Crosby and Malkin, even though the probability may be low, given the quality Goalies our favorite flightless fowl must face, we may not see a black-and-gold Goal over the first 4 games; an ignominious possibility that is not inconceivable (channeling my inner Vizinni right now).
However, let’s shelf that horror movie script for now (at least until Halloween). Let’s take a preview of the Center position as it stands today.
Sidney Crosby
Last season, Crosby checked in 51st among Centers with more than 500 minutes of 5 on 5 Ice Time (TOI), in Goals (G) per 60 minutes last season (0.75). In terms of Point production, his Points (Pnts) per 60 minutes of 1.84 was 44th in the league. Those numbers would suggest that our Number one Center is really a 2nd line Center. I know that saying that is sacrilege around here but don’t shoot me, I am just reporting the numbers.
Over the last 3 seasons combined our Captains numbers are a little higher in terms of raw numbers (0.81) but they are extremely stable in terms of ranking at 51st in G/60 minutes 5 on 5. In terms of overall Pnts/60, the Penguins Captain fares much better checking in at 10th in the league (2.52).
The reason for the disparity in G/60 and Pnts/60 is easy to identify, it is a lack of shooting on Crosby’s part. Sid’s Shots per 60 minutes (S/60) over the last 3 seasons are the lowest in his career; bearing out New York Islanders Coach, Barry Trotz’ scouting report of last post season, in which he roughly stated his game plan was not to worry about our Captain shooting the puck.
How much of that reticence to shoot was due to Crosby’s wrist injury? I don’t know. According to Nicholas Cotsonika of the NHL web site, “Crosby said the problem with his left wrist didn’t limit him much”. I am not sure how much that means. Crosby doesn’t strike me as one to complain much about an injury. So despite his protest to the contrary, I would think that the wrist injury did affect a portion of the drop in offensive numbers. I don’t think age is the major factor here.
Another factor, and probably a major contributor, to the downturn in shots and subsequently Gs in Crosby’s game can be found in a compliment Sid’s Coach has bestowed upon him. The Penguins Skipper has anointed Crosby as the best 200-foot Center in the game. Thanks to the opposite world that Mike Sullivan seems trapped in, where Defensemen are expected to drive the Offense and the Forwards are tasked with defending their own zone, our Captain cannot have a whole lot of energy left upon entering the attacking zone. It has to be really tough to have anything left in the tank after consistently covering for defensive lapses of Defensmen skating about like 6 years olds, clueless to their coverage in their own zone or routinely drifting below opposing faceoff dots in an effort to score points. If you will recall just a few short years ago, just prior to the glory days of the back-to-back Cup runs, then Coach Mike Johnston wore Sid down, having him overly insulate the Defense, fans questioned whether or not Sid had lost a step as his shooting and scoring trickled slower than a leaky faucet,
Prediction: Baring a change in Coaching; Coach and/or Style I would look for a continued weak showing in our Captains 5 on 5 play, particularly if Rod Serling scripts a return of millstone Dominik Simon to crush the first line. I also do not see a real improvement in Power Play production barring the above-mentioned change in Coaching. If Sullivan doggedly clutches to the current system, trying to get lightweight Jake Guentzel to fill Patric Hornqvist’s role, expect much of the same futility on what has become a powerless play. Unless Todd Reirden adopts the more umbrella attack, he used with the Washington Capitals or switches to Anthony Angello, Radim Zohorna, or a larger, more physical player, although the Captain will still get some scoring bounce but not nearly what we are used to seeing.
What I am hoping for is a lot of 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 ice for our star Center. That is where I see Crosby trying to make up ground in the scoring race.
Evgeni Malkin
If anyone actually knows the timeline for Pittsburgh’s own Russian Bear’s return, they are keeping it a Manhattan Project like secret. The best hint I have seen, concerning Geno’s return is about 2 months. That would cost the team about 20 games without his services.
Last season, saddled, most of his 5 on 5 time, with Jason Zucker, a very good but not very creative Winger, the Penguins pivot suffered. Malkin’s G production was worse than Corsby’s (0.4/60, ranked 165th), while his Pnts production stayed above average and significantly better than Crosby’s (2.28 Pnts/60, ranked 22nd). However, 2 seasons ago when Crosby was the one out with a protracted injury, as he always does, Malkin stepped up his game and led the league among Centers in Pnts/60; better than Connor McDavid, Austin Matthews, and Nathan MacKinnon. (1.19 G/60 and 3.43 Pnts/60).
Almost every Penguins fan marvels at how Geno picks up his game when Crosby is out of the line-up, while Sid doesn’t seem to reciprocate in quite the same manner. Yet almost no one ever seems to take a critical look as to why. So let me pose this answer, it very well could be that Sid almost always plays with the best wingers on the team while Malkin is rarely flanked by top 6 Wingers. So when Geno is out, nothing really changes but when Sid is out, Malkin inherits top 6 Wingers.
Two seasons ago, when the Russian Center had occasion to get considerable TOI with Guentzel and Bryan Rust, he led the league in Pnts/60, the same 2 Wingers that Crosby had last season.
Prediction: I would think a 2-month timetable for Malkin’s absence is reasonable. When he does get back, I could see him put up 5 on 5 offensive numbers at the least equal to Crosby’s; probably better if Sullivan does the unexpected and gives Samuel Poulin or Zohorna, or maybe even Valterri Puustanen a shot with Geno. Zohorna has already shown creativity than Zucker, so he would seem a better fit and as for Poulin and Puustanen, at least they couldn’t be worse.
Defensively, I don’t expect Number 71 to set any +/- records, particularly with the ragtag defense our waddling waterfowl will probably deploy. Malkin’s defense isn’t as bad as the “I hate Malkin” club frequently voices and voices extremely loudly, but compared to Crosby’s defensive game, Geno pales.
As with Crosby, on the PP, I can see Malkin get some Pnts, but unless or until the PP gets an overhaul, I don’t see Geno get not nearly enough lift this team.
If by some miracle our Penguins make the playoffs, Malkin will still be the top scorer.
Jeff Carter
At 37 years of age, Jeff Carter is the Oldest Penguins Center and he will be hard press to fill the large skates left in the wake of Crosby’s and Malkin’s early season absence. In the days of his youth, I would expect Carter to acquit himself quite well. Last season, even with splitting time with a sub 500 team like the Los Angeles Kings (0.438), he had better 5 on 5 G/60 than both Crosby and Malkin (1.38, ranked 6th). Carter’s 5 on 5 Pnts/60 were also better than Crosby’s (2.05, ranked 38th) but not quite as good as Malkin’s Pnts/60.
Two seasons’ ago, Carter’s G/60 and Pnts/60 were 1.02 and 1.48 respectively. Carter’s numbers ranked him 38th in Gs but 148th in Pnts
Predictions: So long as he doesn’t get injured, the Carter may be the best, most affordable option for top line Center on this team during Crosby and Malkin’s absence. His play might not result in the same amount of offensive fireworks that Sid and Geno spark but don’t get too discouraged. Unless someone else explodes on the scene Carter will have no protection from teams loading up all their top defensive players against him.
However, when Crosby and Malkin get back, Pivoting the 3rd line behind the Two-Headed Monster can be a great place to hangout and provide leadership for kids. By January the Penguins top 3 Centers could be top to bottom the best 3 Center combination in the league.
Teddy Blueger
Protecting both Carter and Blueger during the expansion draft makes a lot of sense now. Ron Hextall probably was already hedging his bets against having to start the season the way he now has no choice in. Hextall keeps his cards close to his chest so he endured the rancor of many fans preferring Blueger to be gone and Brandon Tanev still here. Even though I didn’t lambast him for his decision I did wonder at why he played it the way he did. Now it all makes sense, and I would have done the same had I been in possession of the Crosby intel.
Last season, Blueger had 5 on 5 Pnts/60 numbers to rival Crosby’s numbers (1.8), while his G/60 weren’t as good as Crosby’s but on par with Malkin’s (0.4). The G/60 like so many other forwards on the team, Blueger saw his G/60 drop from the previous season (0.65). Considering Coach Sullivan’s desire to drive offense through the defense that shouldn’t come as a surprise. However, the Centers Pnts/60 jumped up from the 1.02 he posted in 2019-2020.
In the end, it isn’t Bluegers offense that is his forte, it is his defense. Despite very low offensive zone/defensive zone starts (29.61%), Blueger had a positive GF% 5 on 5 (52.38%).
Predictions: Sorry, I don’t see Blueger getting a great jump in offensive numbers. As Marko Zlomislic of the Hockey Writers pointed out, NHL aging Curves show that forwards enjoy their best season at about 25. At 26 Blueger isn’t going to get much better than he was last season. Any boost in scoring will come from more quality TOI. Once Crosby and Malkin get back, Blueger’s TOI will get limited again.
I know a lot of people who are expecting and hoping for a large jump in Gs and Pnts from Blueger, but let me add another limitation, besides age, before Crosby and Malkin get back, even with higher quality TOI, he will also have to play against higher quality defense. And once Crosby and Malkin get back, he will once again get limited quality TOI.
Evan Rodrigues
Sorry Caleb, Evan Rodrigues’ numbers aren’t all that impressive. Last season your Center’s G/60 was better than all of the above Centers (0.75) but that isn’t all that impressive. However, his Pnts/60 were the lowest of the Center’s that I have already covered (1.69), Rodrigues’ G/60 was up from the previous season 0.55 Pnts/60 were up from 1.09. These numbers may be on the low side, but it may be due to poor Coaching. Quite often over the last 2 seasons, Rodrigues has been deployed in a bottom 6 role. However, this Center has never shown the skill set to play bottom 6.
Predictions: If Sullivan elevates Rodrigues to 2nd line while Crosby and Malkin are out, or at least 3rd line, Our friend Caleb may be happy for a while. We could see a bit of flash Rodrigues displayed at Boston University in 2014-2015 when he notched 21 Gs and 61 Pnts in 41 Games (GP). However, while Blueger is still within range of that magic number for age of peak performance, Rodrigues is much farther removed from his prime. He is 28. At his best, I can only see Rodrigues becoming a center similar to Randy Robitaille of the Penguins Dark Ages of the early 90s early 2000s., serviceable but that is all.
Sam Lafferty
After posting a G/60 of 0.68 and a Pnts/60 of 1.62 (5 on 5) in his first season in Pittsburgh, Sam Lafferty backslid last season, pretty much like the rest of the team, struggling to only get 1.12 Pnts/60 without a G. Unlike Rodrigues, Lafferty does have enough sand in his game to play bottom 6 but he needs to regain his scoring form.
Prediction: I hate to say this, because I like Lafferty, but I can see him getting lost in the shuffle. If the team struggles early on in scoring, Sullivan will continue to implode himself with over-reliance on older players and retarding the growth of younger players.
Brian Boyle
I do think giving Brian Boyle PTO was inspired. Having missed a full season and at 36 years of age, I doubt this former 1st round choice could really make it back to the NHL, particularly on a Contender type team. However, on this team, it will cost the team nothing if he fails to make the team after 90 days. However, if the team really has dropped to the point that Boyle can stick around after Crosby and Malkin are back, then Hextall looks like a genius. The GM will have a plan “B” or “C” should the kids fail.
Prediction: Boyle will make the opening night roster but will not still be in Pittsburgh by the end of the season.
Filip Hållander
I was intrigued by the scouting reports on Filip Hållander when he was first drafted. However, even though Hextall and some pundits opining on the web would seem to think Hållander is NHL ready, I am not. To date, Hållander has not played in North America and that is a big change.
On the plus side, the young Swede did pot 13 Gs and notch 24 Pnts in 51 GP with Lulea HF of the Swedish Hockey League. How that translates into the NHL or even the AHL is unknown.
Predictions: It may take Hållander some time to acclimate to North American culture let alone Hockey. There is a good possibility that Hållander may not have that strong of a training camp, justifying Sullivan to send him down to Wilkes Barre – Scranton (WBS).
Radim Zohorna
Some people have suggested, with the absence of Crosby and Malkin, Zohorna will get an opportunity to play Center. And that is the only reason I talk about him now. I would like to see Zohorna but I don’t consider him a Center.
Prediction: I do think we will be treated to seeing Zohorna, at least during the opening of the season when the Penguins forwards will be tested. However, I don’t see him playing Center. Not that I don’t think Zohorna can do well. I do think, if given a chance, he will deliver. I just don’t see Sullivan giving him a chance to play. Even though he isn’t a heavy hitter, he is well above the height of the Smurfs our Coach likes to put on the ice. Furthermore, the team is deep with players capable of playing both Wing and Center. I would think that those players are better served filling in at Center.
Dominik Simon
No, No, No. Dominik Simon! Please that would be a nightmare I can’t handle. I refuse to even consider it. I blame Rick Buker for this early Halloween trick. He conjured it up.
Jordy Bellerive
I was extremely impressed with Jordy Bellerive when he burst onto the Penguins scene earning a Entry Level Contract. I was so impressed; I followed his Junior career pretty closely. Then He burned his hands pretty badly in a freak accident. Prior to burning up his hands, Bellerive notched 46 Gs in 71GP and 33 Gs in 68 GP in his last 2 seasons in the WHL.
For me, seeing Bellerive make to the NHL would be a great feel good story. Against the laws of probability, forgive me for pulling for this.
Unfortunately, Bellerive has had a hard time overcoming the accident. In his first full professional season, he struggled to score 12 Gs. Last season, he did seem to regain a bit of his scoring touch notching 10 Gs in 29GP.
Predictions: As much as I like him, I am not sure Bellerive is NHL ready yet. Even if Bellerive shows a complete return of his scoring touch, I don’t see Sullivan giving him a chance. Despite Kasper Bjorkqvist, Sam Lafferty, and Nathan Légaré being the best line in the preseason a couple of years ago, all 3 were banished to the minors or Juniors.
Hey Coach,
Great article as always !! Lots to think about. I first must congratulate you on your honest analysis of Sidney Crosby. He is indeed a number TWO center on a Cup Winning team at this stage of his career.That is not a criticism of him in any way but simply the reality. For any Pen’s fan who may think otherwise, just wait and see when the roster for the 2022 Canadian Men’s Olympic team is published. Crosby will be third Center behind Oiler’s McDavid and Colorado’s MacKinnon. There a few more younger Centers that are up there with Crosby as well that could make things interesting..
Jeff Carter will be asked to do the impossible. As you correctly pointed out for the first month or so he will be over shadowed by the oppositions best lines and it is there you will see the true Jeff Carter emerge. He has had a wonderful career but I don’t see him as a major factor over an 82 +game season. He is a better option than the no names, less talent we have behind him but the league is full of those type of players. In order to win it all you need TALENT & Size….and we simply do not have enough of either.
I purposely left Malkin for the last Coach. Respectfully I disagree with your assessment of him moving forward. Don’t misunderstand me please, I like Geno a lot and I would argue if we were all being brutally honest, there were times during the past 15 years where GENO WAS THE BEST PLAYER ON OUR TEAM !! Only Jagr and Mario were any better and some may say they were all equal, depends on the given night. With that saying, I believe Geno may not heal so quickly as others have said and if he does he still remains Injury prone. Therefore I can not count on him playing a full season and at the level we need him to be. In order for us to be a real Cup Contender we need Geno to be 90+ points come end of the regular season. On top of that his wife, and some Russian media say he wants to return home to play In the KHL before he officially retires from hockey and that thought has to be entering in to his mind. When do you say goodbye NHL… just a thought….
Finally we will NOT be going to the playoffs unless injuries to other teams star players allow it to happen and i do not see that to be the case Coach. Plus all of these other NHL teams have a much better farm system filled with first and high second round picks to pull from. We don’t.!!! Our Farm system is rated LAST in the NHL as you well know. This rebuild has already started my friend…Finally.
The 2021-22 Penguins are like entering a 10 year old race car with worn out tires,a questionable transmission and a rebuilt engine into the Daytona 500.. You could win….but not likely.
Great article…Cheers
Jim
Thanks Jim,
I love your closing, it is spot on; A 10yr old car with worn out tires, questionable transmission and a rebuilt engine does have a chance to win the Daytona 500, but the probability is very low. The afore mentioned car would not really control its own destiny. It must hope and pray for the other cars to have poor drivers, pit crews, and engine and transmission troubles of their own. A break down here and a break down there could move the car up at the finish but to win a lot of cars have to break down.
I wish it weren’t true about Sid and Geno, but they aren’t the Sid and Geno that won Cups, they need pieces/parts to help them. The worst part is that our Coach has hastened their aging process. Sullivan’s aversion to physical players have put bullseyes square on our star centers backs and the pounding that they have taken due to the lack of physical response from their teammates have resulted in bodies far older than 34 and 35.
Now worries about Geno. You may be right, he may miss more than the first 2 months of the season and with the lack of any physical defense (cue our friend Rick Buker’s rant) Malkin may sustain another injury later in the season. He may only play 40 or 50 games. That is one of the reason why I am looking at G and Pnts/60 minutes rather than G or Pnts for the season. Even Sid may have more injuries down the line.
Almost every other team in the division seems bent on an arms race, loading up with heavy-hitting hire-guns, preparing for an Old West gun fight at the OK Corral.
I have heard all of those rumors as well about Geno going back to finish his career in the KHL. And unless he intends on remaining in North America past his career, finishing out his playing days in the KHL makes a ton of financial sense.
I have also heard rumors to the affect that Malkin will resign a contract so that he will stay in the ‘burgh as Crosby’s partner in crime through the length of Sid’s current contract. I am not sure about that one but it is out there.
Personally, I am hoping for the team to fall far enough to get a lottery pick and a shot at drafting Shane Wright. Then resigning Malkin for maybe 1 or 2 more seasons on a reduced, team friendly contract. I know that is unlikely but I can dream can’t I?
I know some people talking about Brad Lambert but I don’t think that he will be ready next season. Now, I don’t necessarily mean NHL ready, but a player the Pens need. Right now, from what I have seen, he is a true Sullivan player. He has talent but an aversion to take the puck into high danger areas. This might be due to age. At 17 and playing in Liiga, he may be a little nervous, he has to be physically immature compared to his opponents. Maybe as he gets more physically mature he will over come that fear but at this point my dream would be Shane Wright in black and gold.
Hey Other Rick,
I just have a moment to comment, but fantastic stuff. Very entertaining and enlightening! Welcome back to the writing side!
Rick
Good article, I can’t wait to watch some Penguins hockey….I don’t think the season goes well.
A defense, except Dumo, that can’t defend or play tough in front of the net and corners.
A big question in goal with Jarry?
With Simon on the top line that is a problem…you guys know Mike will have him up there with Sid…I called it just after Pen’s signed him. No young blood getting a real chance of making the roster.
Playing in a tough division, all the other teams are getting better or are already better.
I really believe , not all Hextalls fault but Pen’s have definitely taken a step or two back, maybe a draft lottery pick???
Thanks Pen’s4ever,
I am right there with you, as you will see as I go through the Wings, Defense, and Goalies, I agree pretty much 100%
As for Hextall, you are right; although I question some of his moves but A) we need to see how they all play out and B) the guy inherited a hole as deep as the Marianna’s Trench (Oaky maybe not that deep – I may be getting carried away – but there are times it feels like it). I also don’t want to throw the blame all on JR, even though the former GM deserves a lot of the blame, there were many times that he tried to do the right thing but our coach arrogantly and stubbornly defied his GM often to the point of insubordination. The ridiculous contracts and lack of draft picks are on JR for over paying for mediocrity, the actual dearth of top players and lack of balance in terms of skills sets is all on Sully.
At the risk of the enmity of the rose-colored glasses set, like you, I would love to see this team get a ticket in the draft lottery.