You know, there are times when I feel bad for our friend Rick Buker. (After all, he has to put up with me multiple times per week.) Then, there are days like yesterday — you see, Rick isn’t as squeaky clean as he tries to appear here on Penguin Poop. He loves to poke the bear.
Like any long-time reader, Rick knows my not-so-humble opinions – particularly the negative ones, and he has a propensity for stoking the fire. Yesterday, he took great delight in ruining my good humor by directing my attention to yet another propaganda article trying to justify Dominik Simon’s wearing a Pittsburgh Penguins sweater.
Plain and simple, if Dominik Simon is the answer, then the question is stupid. If you were on Jeopardy and Simon’s name was revealed behind the tile, the answer could only be “Who is the least talented ECHL level Forward to steal the most NHL ice time in the history of Hockey?”
Now, there are those like Seth Rorbaugh, who wrote the aforementioned offending article, who lie about Simon’s efficacy as a player. (Rick has been pushing me for over a year to post this article – as you wish!)
The Lies Behind Dominik Simon
In the X-files episode E.B.E., Deep Throat tells Fox Mulder “A lie, Mr. Mulder, is most convincingly hidden between two truths.” I love that episode. More importantly, it is a great opening for my exposé. Dominik Simon is not a good hockey player; he is a millstone to any team foolish enough to tie him around their neck.
The “Friends of Dominik Simon Society” will tout the ersatz NHL Forward’s CORSI stats. Certainly, our friendly neighborhood pylon does have some fair 5 on 5 stats wearing the Black and Gold. If you look below, over his 3 full seasons in the ‘burgh, his 54.14% ranks him 2nd or 4th depending on if you want to count marginal playing time or not.
Rank |
Player |
Po |
GP |
TOI |
TOI/GP |
CF/60 |
CA/60 |
CF% |
1 | Evan Rodrigues |
C |
7 |
63.48 |
9.10 |
61.43 |
35.91 |
63.11 |
2 | Josh Archibald |
R |
3 |
26.85 |
8.95 |
58.1 |
40.22 |
59.09 |
3 | Sidney Crosby |
C |
202 |
3129.21 |
15.49 |
66.42 |
54.93 |
54.73 |
4 | Dominik Simon |
C |
168 |
2089.10 |
12.44 |
62.15 |
52.67 |
54.13 |
5 | Jason Zucker |
L |
15 |
221.00 |
14.73 |
63.53 |
54.03 |
54.04 |
6 | Carl Hagelin |
L |
97 |
1266.40 |
13.06 |
61.78 |
53.11 |
53.77 |
7 | Jake Guentzel |
C, L |
203 |
3043.70 |
14.99 |
64.89 |
55.81 |
53.76 |
8 | Kris Letang |
D |
205 |
3845.07 |
18.76 |
63.2 |
54.43 |
53.73 |
These numbers are an undeniable truth. However, the importance of the CORSI is questionable (but I will get to that in a moment). Let us continue examining the Simon myth.
Truth 1
Using this CORSI stat out of context is like a stage magician drawing attention to his left hand away from his pocket picking right, or like a very effective criminal lawyer cutting off a a witness from telling the whole truth and only allowing the jury to hear a portion of the truth, the portion that makes his client look innocent and hides the rest of the truth that convicts his guilt.
The Lie Between the Truths
With the veil drawn, these illusionists then lie saying Dominik Simon is a great player.
Truth 2
After asserting their lie, these practitioners of verbal legerdemain then assert that stats never lie. (Sorry Mike, they don’t lie.)
However, people do lie and this how they lie: they ignore the confounding variables that play into Simon’s CORSI stats. If one were to look deeper into all of the factors that affect a player’s CORSI, those who rely on the eye test would be justified in their disgust at seeing the empty sweater of Simon once again haunting their dreams of Penguins victories with his prowling on the fringes of the rink and his reticence to take the puck to the danger zones.
Which confounding variables am I talking about? Let’s examine some of the factors that go into the CORSI numbers, factors such as who was on the ice with him and where did he start his shift?
So, who did Simon play with?
Rank |
With |
Po |
TOI With |
TOI Away |
CF/60 |
CA/60 |
CF% With | CF% Without |
1 | Matt Murray |
G |
1143.73 |
49.53 |
63.27 |
53.25 |
54.30 |
63.04 |
2 | Sidney Crosby |
C |
899.25 |
810.10 |
68.52 |
51.24 |
57.21 |
49.93 |
3 | Kris Letang |
D |
774.93 |
1011.92 |
66.90 |
49.78 |
57.33 |
50.05 |
4 | Brian Dumoulin |
D |
572.32 |
875.53 |
68.14 |
48.23 |
58.56 |
53.21 |
5 | Tristan Jarry |
G |
563.77 |
36.20 |
58.11 |
53.96 |
51.85 |
66.67 |
6 | Jake Guentzel |
C, L |
546.95 |
1216.90 |
71.74 |
48.38 |
59.73 |
53.2 |
Looking down the list of the most common players on the ice with Simon (outside of the Goalies), Crosby, Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, and Jake Guentzel represent some serious talent to hide behind. What is really interesting here is if you were to compare the CF% With column and the Simon CF% Without column. Again, outside of the Goalies, when Simon is not on the ice with the above mentioned elite NHL skaters, his CORSI numbers plummet.
Therefore, it should have come as no surprise to anyone capable of critical thought that Simon failed in Calgary last year — as evidenced by his not so stellar 46.45%
Season |
Team |
GP |
TOI |
CF |
CA |
CF% |
2015-2016 |
PIT |
3 |
18.22 |
19 |
13 |
59.38 |
2016-2017 |
PIT |
2 |
25.10 |
21 |
26 |
44.68 |
2017-2018 |
PIT |
33 |
357.87 |
401 |
332 |
54.71 |
2018-2019 |
PIT |
71 |
871.97 |
914 |
727 |
55.7 |
2019-2020 |
PIT |
64 |
859.27 |
849 |
775 |
52.28 |
2020-2021 |
CGY |
11 |
100.85 |
85 |
98 |
46.45 |
Line mates really do matter. Some players pick up their line mates — others do not.
Season |
Team |
GP |
TOI |
CF |
CA |
CF% |
O-Zone Starts |
N-Zone Starts |
D-Zone Starts |
On The Fly Starts |
O-Zone Start % |
2015-2016 |
PIT |
3 |
18.217 |
19 |
13 |
59.38 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
15 |
80 |
2016-2017 |
PIT |
2 |
25.10 |
21 |
26 |
44.68 |
6 |
11 |
5 |
18 |
54.55 |
2017-2018 |
PIT |
33 |
357.87 |
401 |
332 |
54.71 |
57 |
95 |
54 |
284 |
51.35 |
2018-2019 |
PIT |
71 |
871.97 |
914 |
727 |
55.7 |
149 |
224 |
109 |
713 |
57.75 |
2019-2020 |
PIT |
64 |
859.27 |
849 |
775 |
52.28 |
188 |
211 |
86 |
680 |
68.61 |
2020-2021 |
CGY |
11 |
100.85 |
85 |
98 |
46.45 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
85 |
61.76 |
Yep, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Pundits precious pylon has always started more shifts in the offensive zone (Off. Zone Start%) compared to defensive zone starts. Every season, even in Calgary, he has gotten prime shift starts. Now, Gentle Readers, let’s look down the CF% Column (the CORSI%); most of the numbers are above 50%, meaning the Penguins get more shot attempts than their opponents when he is on the ice. However, outside of 2017 – 2018, the CF% is lower than the Off. Zone Start%. Starting in the Offensive Zone certainly gives a player a better opportunity to get a CF and limit the number of CA. Sorry, but unless you are looking through kaleidoscope eyes, these numbers should at least cause one to question Simon’s value.
Digging Deeper – It Doesn’t Appear That Simon Helps Sustain Offensive Pressure
Season |
Team |
GP |
TOI |
O-Zone Starts |
N-Zone Starts |
Def. Zone Starts |
On The Fly Starts |
O-Zone Start % |
O-Zone FO |
N-Zone FO |
D-Zone FOs |
O-Zone FO % |
2015-2016 |
PIT |
3 |
18.22 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
15 |
80 |
6 |
9 |
1 |
85.71 |
2016-2017 |
PIT |
2 |
25.10 |
6 |
11 |
5 |
18 |
54.55 |
7 |
14 |
6 |
53.85 |
2017-2018 |
PIT |
33 |
357.87 |
57 |
95 |
54 |
284 |
51.35 |
107 |
124 |
109 |
49.54 |
2018-2019 |
PIT |
71 |
871.97 |
149 |
224 |
109 |
713 |
57.75 |
271 |
309 |
211 |
56.22 |
2019-2020 |
PIT |
64 |
859.27 |
188 |
211 |
86 |
680 |
68.61 |
318 |
281 |
198 |
61.63 |
2020-2021 |
CGY |
11 |
100.85 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
85 |
61.76 |
33 |
26 |
21 |
61.11 |
Now let’s compare Off. Zone Start% to Off. Zone Faceoff% (the ratio of Offensive to Defensive Zone Faceoffs); the Off. Zone Start% is always higher than the Off. Zone Face Off%. Sorry, but that seems to me that the Penguins’ Opponents start tilting the ice back the other way when Simon is on the ice. To me, this shift in Percentages seems to indicate a lack of sustained Offensive Zone pressure with Simon on the ice, even with the number of quality-line mates he is given here in Pittsburgh.
Rank |
Player |
Po |
GP |
GF/60 |
GA/60 |
GF% |
1 | Patrick Marleau |
C |
8 |
4.64 |
5.3 |
46.67 |
2 | Adam Johnson |
C |
13 |
4.59 |
3.82 |
54.55 |
3 | Jamie Oleksiak |
D |
83 |
3.22 |
2.45 |
56.78 |
4 | Evgeni Malkin |
C |
201 |
3.2 |
2.87 |
52.74 |
5 – 21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 | Patric Hornqvist |
R |
191 |
2.6 |
2.11 |
55.26 |
23 | Jared McCann |
C |
98 |
2.6 |
2.21 |
54.08 |
24 | Dominik Simon |
C |
168 |
2.56 |
2.58 |
49.72 |
25 | Olli Maatta |
D |
142 |
2.47 |
2.41 |
50.56 |
26 – 48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
49 | Tom Kuhnhackl |
R |
69 |
1.23 |
2.47 |
33.33 |
50 | Carter Rowney |
R |
44 |
1.19 |
3.97 |
23.08 |
Simon’s relatively low positioning in GF/60 (24th out of 56 players during this time frame) would back up the idea of a lack of sustained pressure. If the team wasn’t scoring goals and the O-Zone FO% was lower than O-Zone Starts%, the puck had to be going somewhere (out of the Offensive Zone?)
Simon the Ineffective Player
The biggest laugh I had yesterday is when I read Rorabaugh quoting Mike Sullivan, “The thing that we’ve always had so much respect for Dom’s game is his strength on the puck,” Sullivan said. “He’s so strong on the puck,…” Simon is the paragon of our Penguins failures. He is a perimeter player who can’t get to the paint and who drags the offense to a crawl. Despite with whom he gets to play with he generates very little offense (2.56 G/60) while the team gives up more Gs with him on the ice (2.58).
The lack of G/60 5 on 5 isn’t a shocker considering that the team doesn’t have a very high Shooting Percentage S% when he is out there (see below).
Rank |
Player |
Po |
GP |
On-Ice SH% |
On-Ice SV% |
1 | Adam Johnson |
C |
13 |
15 |
87.8 |
2 – 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
9 | Evgeni Malkin |
C |
201 |
9.09 |
91.06 |
10 | Anthony Angello |
C |
8 |
9.09 |
88 |
11 | Bryan Rust |
R |
196 |
8.94 |
91.69 |
12 | Jared McCann |
C |
98 |
8.79 |
92.17 |
13 – 18 |
|
|
|
|
|
19 | Sidney Crosby |
C |
202 |
8.37 |
91.52 |
20 | Marcus Pettersson |
D |
126 |
8.26 |
92.72 |
21 | Kris Letang |
D |
205 |
8.24 |
90.65 |
22 – 28 |
|
|
|
|
|
29 | Dominik Simon |
C |
168 |
7.5 |
91.13 |
30 | Jack Johnson |
D |
149 |
7.47 |
92.13 |
29th out of 56 in On-Ice S% with the human pylon on the ice.
So why is the S% so low? Perhaps it the team’s inability to get to the High Danger areas with Simon out there. \(see below)
Rank |
Player |
Po |
GP |
HDCF/60 |
HDCA/60 |
HDCF% |
1 | Josh Archibald |
R |
3 |
15.64 |
4.47 |
77.78 |
2 – 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 | Sidney Crosby |
C |
202 |
13.73 |
11.06 |
55.38 |
5 | Jake Guentzel |
C, L |
203 |
13.58 |
11.75 |
53.62 |
6 – 8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 | Evgeni Malkin |
C |
201 |
12.89 |
11.64 |
52.54 |
10 | Kris Letang |
D |
205 |
12.8 |
11.13 |
53.49 |
11 – 20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 | Dominik Simon |
C |
168 |
11.75 |
9.59 |
55.05 |
22 – 25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
26 | Daniel Sprong |
R |
24 |
11.18 |
8.73 |
56.16 |
27 – 43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
44 | Jared McCann |
C |
98 |
9.09 |
8.65 |
51.25 |
45 – 56 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
In fact, in the first preseason game this year with Simon on the ice, the team got into the High Danger areas zero times, the null set. For all the” sound and fury” that Sullivan seems to see in Simon, it signifies absolutely nothing.
Worse yet is the fact that Simon is now 27. He has never topped the double digits in Gs in a season, nor has he passed the 30-point mark. Research has shown that a Forward hits his peak at age 25. Simon may still be at the top of his game at 27, but if his numbers are this low in individual stats and his on-ice stats vary this widely depending on the quality of his line mates and starting position, then he is not going to get any better. He in not the answer to any but the dumbest questions.
Simon may be a nice guy and the players may like him, but he adds nothing to the team while stealing a roster spot from someone that could be a benefit. Being a nice guy certainly didn’t help our Penguins still had early playoff exits.
Play nice in the sandbox kids. Especially with Rick B.
I appreciate the work you did to prove Simon stinks. All I had to do was watch him
I hear you Horse, but Sullivan and apparently Rorabaugh just can’t seem to get it.
Play nice in the sandbox kids. Especially with Rick B.
Coach Sullivan was hit in the head by a puck last night. What say you the other Rick? Please be nice, kids will be reading your reply, if you choose to do so. Have a nice day.
Hey Comic,
It looks like the Coach is suffering from CTE if today’s practice is any indication of the opening night’s lineup.
Silly has Simon and Rodrigues on the big league roaster and ticketing Zohorna and all the prospects to WBS.
“There is an old saying that goes only an idiot learns from his own mistakes. A wiseman learns from the mistakes of others.”
If there is any truth to that, it begs the question if only idiots learn from their own mistakes, what are the people that never learn from their mistakes. Whatever that is, that is what the Penguins’ coach is. He won with kids but has been on a losing streak with veterans – so what does it appear that he is doing? setting himself up for another debacle.
I sincerely hope this lineup is his noose. I am tired of the losing.
Very impressive my friend.That was a well researched and even better written expose’ of a player whom the Pen’s Management/Coaching staff seem to think will magically fix all the short comings of this team. At best he is a fourth line player and that is being generous Coach.
I am reminded of an earlier time when a telling comment was made. A left winger of limited talent scored 30 Goals one year while playing with Wayne Gretzky and the astute Canadian Hockey media quoted” Even a FIRE HYDRANT would score 30 Goals playing with # 99″….
I think that is an appropriate analogy for Simon as well. Anybody playing regularly with Sid Crosby should get 20 goals a year in a 82 game season. Just sayin.. ???
Thanks for the great work…
Jim
Hey Jim,
Thanks. That is a great analogy. We have seen Sid score amazing goals, bouncing pucks off Goalies etc, yet with all of the TOI, Simon has had with Sid, he has precious little to show for it, other than his CORSI stats. You would think that #87 could have bounced a couple of Pucks off the Penguins Fire Hydrant, but you would have to skate into the blue paint for that and Simon’s allergies to that won’t let him even get close to the net.
The biggest problem with Simon is he lacks the skill set of a top 6 to play top 6 in the NHL (no scoring ability) or maybe even the AHL. Making matters worse, he lacks the skill set to play bottom 6 in any league – he has no grit.
I didn’t want to write this article. I didn’t want to have to point out the obvious but the danger of Simon getting a roster spot is growing
Hey Other Rick,
Brilliant! Simply brilliant!! And to think I may have actually played a (very) small part in this… 🙂
You certainly expose the lie of CORSI For as the be-all-end-all indicator of success. I’ve mentioned in the past that our Pens led the 2019 and 2021 postseasons in CORSI For…and won two out of 10 games.
On Monday night, the Pens had a CORSI For of 65.22. Smokin’ right? Yet we were anything but. Our heatmap told the real story. Nary a shot from the blue paint on out to the high slot. I checked out the heatmaps of some other games and none of them even remotely resemble ours. They show tons of shot activity from the slot and between the circles.
Which segues nicely into my thoughts on Simon. I thought the other night was a fair representation of who he is. He was defensively responsible. He exited our zone with the puck and lugged it through the neutral zone on numerous occasions. He worked the corners and made an occasional nice play. Yet none of it seemed to extend to the prime scoring areas. It’s almost as if there was an invisible barrier there, keeping him away from the places where he might do some damage.
None of this makes Simon a horrible person or even a bad player. He’s just not as effective as the Pens’ brass and Mike Sullivan think he is. He might be a good fit for a team that has some aggression and heft a la Conor Sheary with Washington. But not for our already too small Penguins.
Rick
Thanks Rick,
As I think of Simon, and with respect to your point about Simon’s allergy to getting the puck into the opponents blue paint it reminds me of a quote I read while looking at some prospects for next years draft. Josh Glazer wrote “In the future Lambert will need to use this time and space to create openings in higher danger areas. At times, and predominantly in the Liiga, there is a hesitancy to carry the puck to the slot, settling for chances outside the ‘home plate’ area.” Glazer was writing about Brad Lambert. Lambert is a 17 year old Finnish C/RW. He is an up and comer, playing in Finland’s elite league, Liiga. There is a strong chance when he as he gets more physically mature he will overcome his shyness of the HD areas. Glazer acknowledges the when he continues “Against his own age group at the U18’s, he seemed more comfortable trying to get to that area and take shots”
Simon is 27 years old. He is past the magical age of 25. Probabilities are low that he will learn new tricks.
IF THIS DOESN’T SUPPORT MY NUMBERS LIE THEORY NOTHING DOES!!
I never thought I would have The Other Rick to thank!!
Hey Mike,
Your welcome.
CORSI, by itself is meaningless and all those wizards of Oz like to to hide behind the curtain of that isolated number. Looking at the why’s, the factors that went into that stat tell a different story. The full story of the numbers supports the eye-test, Simon is not the greatest thing since sliced bread; not even close. Unfortunately, some people don’t want to look at the whole story. They don’t want to dig past the surface.
That’s the problem with numbers – everyone grades each component differently in
order to validate their argument. It’s human nature at its best. If you can’t evaluate
a player by watching him play then you probably shouldn’t be trying to break his
game down!! “Just saying”
I do hear what you are saying Mike, people Pick and Choose (cherry pick) what they want to look at and point to it to justify their point all the time. Some of them are deliberate in their choosing, others simply do not know how to really ask the questions that need asking. Then after they make their minds up they would rather die on that hill they created than consider they might be wrong.
On the other hand, others would rather say they only believe in the Eye Test and ignore the evidence, even as the team keeps losing.
The Bottom Line here is that the Eye-Test and Numbers validate each other once a person is willing to look critically at both sides.