Now that Penguins general manager Ron Hextall has signed Zach Aston-Reese and Radim Zohorna it appears our roster for the coming season is pretty much set. Although Hextall mentioned he’d like to make a few tweaks, with only $121,000 left in cap space? Aside from purchasing a bag of new pucks and a few replacement parts for the Zamboni, it doesn’t fill me with hope that any significant changes are coming.
For better or worse as the marriage vows go, our team appears to be in place. With a heavy emphasis on the worse.
I’ve been critical of Hextall’s work this summer in terms of the type of player he’s added, with depth forward and Mike Sullivan pet Dominik Simon serving as the lightning rod for my dissatisfaction. But Hextall’s hands were clearly tied to a large degree by the messy cap situation he inherited from Jim Rutherford.
As president of hockey operations Brian Burke so aptly stated in a recent interview, “It means [during free agency] you’ve got to shop at Kmart and not at Nordstrom.”
Anyway, enough with my lead-in ramble. My question is, are the Penguins going to be any good?
Let’s start by looking at the opening day lineup. Assuming Evgeni Malkin starts the season on IR, here are some possible combinations:
|
Forwards |
Defensemen |
Goalies |
|
Guentzel-Crosby-Rust Zucker-Carter-Kapanen McGinn-Blueger-Aston-Reese Heinen-Zohorna-Rodrigues |
Dumoulin-Letang Pettersson-Marino Matheson-Friedman/Ruhwedel |
Jarry-DeSmith |
Obviously these units are fluid and subject to change. Especially the bottom-six. But it’s a starting point.
I have to say, I’m decidedly underwhelmed. While other teams in the Metro, most notably the Rangers and Flyers, took aggressive steps forward, our Pens appear to have regressed. Maybe Brock McGinn will be a suitable replacement for Brandon Tanev. But Danton Heinen’s at best a poor man’s Jared McCann. And Simon? Don’t get me started …
On defense? Unless prospect Pierre-Olivier Joseph makes the difficult switch to the off-side or Hextall miraculously moves Marcus Pettersson (rumored to be in play albeit for a hefty price), last season’s waiver pickup Mark Friedman or veteran Chad Ruhwedel will likely replace the departed Cody Ceci. Given the way Cody played last season (plus-18), no easy task.
Ceci’s loss comes with a double-whammy. He was an effective partner and stabilizing influence on Mike Matheson, who showed precious little chemistry with anyone else. John Marino, in particular, seemed confounded by the Quebec native. Plus, Ceci was the most consistent physical presence on a defense that’s otherwise “sof” as pudding in Michel Therrien-speak.
Back to the forwards. As a group there’s precious little bite or aggression. All of the long-pants rhetoric basically went pfft when the rubber hit the free-agent road. No offense intended. But when the 6’0” 187-pound McGinn’s your toughest player in a division populated by Tom Wilson and now Ryan Reaves and Rasmus Ristolainen, you’ve got issues in the physical play department. While it’s possible Anthony Angello and/or Sam Lafferty could crack the lineup and add a little sand, that’s not going to move the needle a whole lot.
Then there’s the not-so-little matter of scoring. Last season, the Pens finished second in the league in goals. With the team’s core a year older and Malkin on the shelf to start the campaign, we’ll be hard pressed to duplicate that feat.
Yes, Sid is still Sid, and Jake Guentzel’s a proven sniper on wing. But Jeff Carter’s unlikely to match his phenomenal stretch run. And top-sixers Kasperi Kapanen and Jason Zucker…even Bryan Rust…remain question marks. In the best of times they’re 20-plus goal scorers. But things don’t always go according to plan or form. And we’ll surely miss McCann.
The bottom-six, frankly, is uninspiring. I think Zohorna is a potential diamond in the rough, but in a middle-six role and not as a fourth liner seeing perhaps seven minutes of ice time per game.
There’s always hope Samuel Poulin or Nathan Legare or Drew O’Connor will dazzle in training camp and crack the lineup. But Hextall prefers a patient approach to developing young talent and Sullivan doesn’t have a kid-friendly track record.
Then there’s the goaltending. Can new goalie coach Andy Chiodo fix a Tristan Jarry who’s badly in need of mending, particularly with the mental aspect of his game? I personally think Casey DeSmith’s mentally tough and a solid backup. But I fear having to ride him too long if Jarry goes down for any length of time.
To sum up, this group has the feel of…well…Hextall’s Philly teams from a few years back. Ergo, a few top-end players surrounded by a mostly no-name supporting cast of worker bees. About as bland, too.
Those teams weren’t overly successful (two playoff appearances in four-plus seasons). Forgive me for being negative. I don’t think our Pens will be, either.
Hope all the Penguin poopers are doing well and enjoying the summer.
I really believe this season will be tough for our Pens.
As some of you have pointed out and I agree, the defense is worse, goaltending is a big question mark, “the core” is a another year older and slower…the teams in our division are better and improving, it’s going to be really tough for Pens to be getting a playoff berth.
As far as the lines(even though it’s August) I would bet on Simon being on Sid’s wing with Jake on the other side.
Rust will move to 2nd line with Carter.
Jake/Sid/Simon
Rust/Carter/Kappy
Zucker/Bleuger/Mcginn
ZAR/ERod/Heinen
That’s my guess for opening night.
Hey Pen’s4ever,
Everyone I know fears exactly what you write, Sullivan going back to the Pylon Simon on Sid’s wing. No one believes the malarkey about that millstone was only a depth signing.
Hi Rick, great article as always. I agree with you.
In my opinion this year we will be on the outside looking in as they say. Indeed Sidney has slipped in his game and he can not carry this team to the promise land. We have failed the last 3 years. He is still a great player and probably still the best the Pens have, but we as a team have never gotten any better when the league around us has. I remember when other teams had to dismantle and rebuild and today they are the the teams on the rise while the Pens continue to sink.
Please, don’t blame Hextall. He is not the problem. No one has the real courage to make the tough choices and eventually as we sink the fans will grow restless and will no longer come to see a losing team night after night.
One more season of a missed play offs or an early First round exit and I fear the worse will happen. The first start will be a new ” Budget” where by we can no longer afford to spend to the Cap limit due to lower revenues from declining ticket sales. What happens when we only have $ 71 million to spend on players salaries instead of the current $ 81 million ? I don’t care who the General manager is ….We are done for as we currently know it when that day comes. This team has to win this year period !!!
cheers
Jim
Hey Jim,
Love hearing from you, so I can’t help myself jumping in here.
Re: Sid, I am not sure how much of his skills have deteriorated with age and how much of his current dip in play is due to the same issues that plagued him at the end of the Bylsma era and brief Johnston interlude. Barry Trotz summed it up best during a playoff interview this past season, I can’t remember the exact quote but it was something to the effect that defensively his team knows that Sid will not shoot the puck and that all they have to do is play pass. Cut down the passing lanes and you shut down Sid. I am sure that if he starts taking command of the puck and driving the net again, there will be lanes for him, particularly early on when defenders and goalies are playing pass. And once they have to respect Sid’s shooting again, they will be forced to open up some passing lanes for his wingers. He’ll never be the Sid from 2015 thru 2017 again, but he probably still can be the Sid who takes a back seat to no one and will not finish 129th in points per 60 5 on 5 again.
Re: other teams getting better, yes some teams have been getting better and there just may be an upheaval in the Metro this year, both the Pens and the Caps may find themselves on the outside looking in. It is possible that only CBJ will finish below us and the Caps.
I for one am not going to blame Hextall for anything yet. When JR was hired, several people warned that he will trash the team for seasons to come if he stayed very long, his track record in Carolina was a clear road map and darned if they were not right. JR could not stop tinkering with the team trading and re trading players and handing out ridiculous contracts to unproven players has this team denuded of any real farm system and Cap strapped with underachieving over paid players.
And I don’t think it is necessarily the worst thing if this team drops to 7th this season. That brief fall could give the team a shot at a 1st overall and wake ownership out of a lethargy for serious change from smurf city. The reality of what you write and what you and I have warned for 3 stinking years, that 1st and 2nd round exits will eventually become to much of a financial hardship for the team to continue with their drunken sailor spending on duds instead of studs. Lack of money will eventually force them to stop over-valuing marginal talent.
To that end, that is why I was so hopeful that the team find a way to both sign Saad and trade for Gibson. Getting to Pgh boys back in the burg’ should have skyrocketed jersey sales and merchandising, giving at least some financial cushion thru ancillary sales to defray there abysmal on ice playoff efforts.
Hey Mike,
Rick and I have both talked about this and at least he and I feel as you do, the Sullivan is getting everything his way. And I can easily see this team slip to 7th – maybe not, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened.
One thing I said to Rick that he is not quite on board with is that I am not surprised by these Sullivan friendly moves; they feel like Hextall is giving Sully enough rope to hang himself. I could see Hextall wanting to move on from Sully and putting his own man in but higher-ups not giving him that carte blanche, so he [Hextall] wants to magnify his point.
Unlike you, I have not worked in the front offices of any sports teams, so maybe the rarely work that way, but I have been fairly high up in the private sector and it happens behind close doors fairly often. I have had to get very creative to move some deadwood out or people stealing from me and the company, who were being protected from above me, in the past. Or in Sully’s case, simply unwilling to adapt.
And in the plus column, for the Pens, if they fall far enough, they could get there first overall pick (Shane Wright) since Sid..
Sorry, that was me.
Hey Rick, Dennis, and Mike,
First, I agree that this incarnation is a weaker version of last season’s team. However, I don’t want to make any predictions on where our Pens will be by Playoff time. I thought NJD and PHI would have been better down the stretch run last season and they weren’t. It would take a miracle for the team to finish above 4th in the division this year though and even 4th in the division may not be enough to get them in the playoffs.
I could also see them finish 7th in the division, at this point.
2nd CAPFRIENDLY lists the Pens Depth Chart as Follows;
Guentzel – Crosby – Rust
Zucker – Malkin (Carter) – Kapanen
McGinn – Carter (Blueger) – Heinen
ZAR – Blueger – Rodrigues
with Lafferty and Angello the swing men.
on D
Dumoulin – Letang
Pettersson – Marino
Matheson – Ruhwedel
They list Zohorna as starting in the minors behind Chaput, the Dominator – Simon, and O’Connor. I am not sure what they’re drinking.
Crosby, not sorry, if Trotz is willing to go on TV during a playoff series against the Penguins and say that they (the Islanders) do not worry about Crosby shooting so they just sit back and play pass, that is seriously telling and explains why he, Crosby, only checked in at 129th among forwards in Pnts/60 5on5 last season. The Captain has slipped back into that late Bylsma laise and even he will not help the Offense until he starts driving the net again and stopes looking to defer the shots to his Wings and D.
Without Ceci, Matheson could very easily turn back into the millstone that dragged Fla down. His with or without you numbers are very telling.
Given Sullivan’s history, I seriously don’t see Zohorna, Legare, Poulin or any kids getting a crack at the roster unless there are injuries.
Dennis, I too am willing to give Hextall a little more time but I am not as confident anymore. JR dug a nasty hole, but as Mike pointed out, Hextall was told to (at least for PR sake) to make one more Cup run with Crosby-Malkin-Letang and his signings do inspire confidence in that. It seems to me better options were passed over and the D is still the same inept crew (shy only Ceci) that gave away games 5 and 6 last season.
In the mean time, almost all of the rest of the division (at least on paper) improved.
Rick
The answer to your question is “NO”. IMO if Hextall would have added some toughness and found a way
to keep Tanev the playoffs were still a possibility. Theirs just way too many holes. I agree with your
assessment of Matheson but would point out that he outperformed both Marino and Pettersson last
season. If that’s our 2nd pairing we’re in big, big trouble.
I think with Sid on your team you always have a chance but I’m not sure an aging Sid could bring this
team to the promised land. It doesn’t look good.
Also, looking at our line combinations and Malkin back in the lineup Jeff Carter is basically screwed.
Who do you put on his line? ZAR?, McGinn?, Heinen?, ERod. This would be enough to send Carter into
retirement. We have to pray that Lagare, Poulin, and Zahorna can crack the rotation or there are trades
coming. I’m not against trading Zucker but “Jesus” if that happens and you don’t get a potential top
6 forward in return we have no one to fill that spot.
Dennis, I don’t disagree that Hextall in the long run will rejuvenate our farm system and build up our talent
base but he was brought in here with the understanding of chasing another cup while Sid and Malkin
still have something left in the tank. He has failed miserably in that regard.
So by inference, you feel that his bosses must be dissatisfied with him?
Dennis
That would clearly be an assumption on my part but very possible. I’m also willing to give
Hextall the benefit of the doubt in hopes there are more moves to follow. Personally, I’m
hoping he has the courage to make the right moves for the good of this team. Time will
tell.
Hey Mike,
I couldn’t help but notice your answer was in capital letters.
I feel your pain, my friend. And your sense of disillusionment over the direction the team has taken. We were led to believe one thing and got something else entirely.
It didn’t occur to me until I responded to Dennis that Ritchie signed with Toronto for less money and less term than McGinn. Maybe he would’ve chosen the Leafs over us anyway…he’s an Ontario boy and Toronto’s up-and-coming while the Pens are obviously on the downside of the championship bell curve. But I would’ve made a push for him all the same. Don’t know if we did or not.
I hate to say this. But I think as long as Sullivan’s coaching the team, we’ll choose gritty over heavy every time. And I’m really not so sure about Hextall any more in terms of physical hockey, based on the guys he signed. Yes, he was working under constraints. But it appears he went in the totally opposite direction with Simon and Heinen. Fedun isn’t noted for his physical play, either.
I was also surprised to see Bogosian signed with Tampa Bay for less than a million. Or roughly what we’d be paying Fedun at the NHL level. I know they’re different animals…the latter was signed for AHL depth. But who would I rather have?
A no-brainer.
Rick
Hey Rick
I agree 100%. Also, if this is the direction you’re going in the next move should be to trade
Letang. Why keep the core together if you have no shot of winning “makes zero sense” Are
the Pen’s trying to make it look like they want to contend? The Pen’s were a good team in
2020-21 and as you said in a few of your other posts just needed to be tweaked. I took it
to mean adding some size and toughness and the Pen’s could have made another run.
Right now we’ve regressed to the point of not making the playoffs. This is mind-boggling.
So it’s been only six months since he walked into a situation where the team was cap-strapped (to put it mildly), the veterans are aging and the farm system was almost totally depleted. Not sure anyone should’ve had high expectations for this year.
And as to Hextall’s Philly stint where he walked into a similar situation vis-a-vis the cap and farm system, a few years after taking over, Hockey News rated the Flyers’ farm system the best in the league. I’d like to give him a chance.
Hello Dennis. I want to officially welcome you to PenguinPoop and thank you for reading and commenting. It’s always nice to see a new name in the comments section.
Your response is both reasoned and prudent. Hextall, indeed inherited a cap mess from Rutherford and there really wasn’t a whole heck of a lot he could do. I actually wrote a couple of articles to that affect a couple of months ago.
My frustration is two-fold. I thought we had a pretty darn good team last season, surprisingly so, and felt we weren’t that far off from being a legit contender. Despite the cap situation I was hoping, perhaps naively, that Hextall would find a way to upgrade us while adding a desperately needed physical presence, especially given all the “long-pants” hockey talk and the fact that teams went deep into the playoffs combined skill and speed with muscle.
To that end, Nick Ritchie would’ve been a really nice add and at $2.5 million, he wouldn’t have broken the bank. In fact, he’d provide more of what we need for less $$$ than Hextall’s marquee signing, Brock McGinn. (I see Mike Sullivan’s fingerprints all over this one…he much prefers small and gritty to big and heavy.)
Short of that, I would’ve have tried to sign Erik Gudbranson to fill the third right-d spot. He played really well in his brief time here and proved he could fit Sullivan’s system. We won’t know until he actually signs somewhere, but my guess is Gudbranson could be had for around $1 million. Other Rick mentioned Zach Bogosian, who signed with Tampa Bay for an AAV of $850,000.
Instead, Hextall signed guys like Simon, Chaput and Fedun. Yeah, I know…two-way contacts, minor-league depth, financial flexibility. Heinen sounds like a cross between McCann and Jankowski, with the latter’s requisite softness.
Again, I guess I was just hoping we’d take one last shot at things with this core. But as you intimated, if it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck…well…it’s probably a duck.
I agree with your assertion that Hextall was brought in for the long-haul and to oversee the rebuilding process that’s looming just ahead, if it hasn’t already subtly begun. And you’re right…it’s unfair to judge him at this early stage. But a word of caution about his success with the Flyers. Yes, he restocked their system with young talent and in a relatively short period of time as you point out. But some of that talent has flamed out. Shayne Gostisbehere, Robert Hagg, Phillippe Myers and, most notably, second overall pick Nolan Patrick. And last season, manned with a significant amount of Hextall talent, the Flyers were one of the most lifeless bunches I’ve ever seen…going back to some of our old-time Penguins teams. A far cry from their hey-day.
For now I agree, we need to give him a chance. But he doesn’t get a free pass, either.
Rick
Rick, thanks for the kind words. I’ve enjoyed the articles here. I agree that Hextall shouldn’t get a ‘free pass’ — I don’t think anyone should; let’s see this chess game play out.
As to Philly, Ron was in year 4 of a 5-year rebuild as agreed to by Ed Snider (RIP) when he was unceremoniously fired by an insecure Paul Holmgren (there’s a lot more to that story). We never got to see the finished product. Also, many in Philly maintain that Vigneault was exactly the wrong coach for that group of youngsters (he was hired after Hextall was let go).
Keep up the good work!
Thanks Dennis, and I appreciate your kind words as well.
You seem as though you have quite a bit of insight into Hextall and the Flyers’ organization in general. Just curious, and I promise you will absolutely not be tortured for admitting to this, but are you a Flyers fan?
I agree with your assessment of Vigneault and his staff. Not that Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo aren’t good hockey men…they helped turn the Penguins around years ago. But they’re pretty dour and intense and you wonder if their approach was too heavy for the kids.
Anyway, again, welcome to PenguinPoop!
Rick
I was a Flyers fan until November 2018.
Sorry, that was me.
Dennis
I can’t speak for everyone but I think most people are disappointed because it appears that the
moves Hextall’s making are being influenced by Sullivan. If Sullivan is dictating the direction of
the team then we can be assured of having the softest team in the NHL. At this moment and I know
it’s early but the Pen’s are a worse team than they were when the season ended. I don’t see how
we make the playoffs with this squad.
Mike, let me just say that I can’t imagine an employee ‘dictating’ to an employer, especially one like Hextall. Wouldn’t seem like a very healthy dynamic.
Dennis
I don’t think anyone is dictating but there are ways to influence a situation when asked
for an opinion. I’m sure Hextall out of respect talks to Sullivan about potential moves.
One move that has Sullivan written all over it is bringing back Simon and if you remember
the quotes from Hextall and Burke they were looking to get bigger and tougher. There
were opportunities to make some of this happen for a reasonable cost yet we bypassed.
Why? My conclusion is Sullivan had Hextall’s ear and every Pen’s fan knows Sully despises
physical play. GM’s confide in the head coach and dictating probably wasn’t the right
word to use – Sullivan is manipulating things to get his way.
Hi MIke — weve probably exhausted this thread, but let me say this — if you’ve followed Hextall’s career, particularly in management, you’d realize he’s probably the last person who would be ‘manipulated’.