It might be a little premature to pose such a question. After all, the season’s barely a quarter of the way done and we’re still in the playoff hunt. Heck, Evgeni Malkin has yet to play a game for us due to knee surgery. His presence may well be enough to lift us out of our present state of mediocrity.
However, when PenguinPoop writer and commenter Jim questioned whether we should consider trading Bryan Rust, it got me to thinking. Will we be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? Or more to the point, should we be buyers or sellers at the deadline?
How does that old saying go? If you come to a fork in the road take it? Well, that kind of describes the plight of our Penguins. To tear down or not to tear down.
I’m notoriously bad at making predictions. But I’m going to skip ahead and make some any way.
I think this Pens team is WYSIWYG. In other words, what we’ve seen is pretty much what we’re going to get. Malkin’s return could give us a boost. But even with Geno in tow, we don’t match up any more with the league’s elite.
Yeah, we were competitive against Florida and Toronto. But the Capitals destroyed us, 6-1. Calgary’s dominated us in two meetings. The Oilers cut through our tissue-thin defense the other night like a knife going through hot butter. After they recovered from their Cup hangover, the Lightning torched us 5-1.
No sense kidding ourselves. The Pens are a mediocre, middle-of-the-pack bunch. Eighteenth in the league in goals for. Eighteenth in goals against. Dreams of a last stab at a Stanley Cup are just that. Dreams. Even when fully healthy, as presently constructed this team has no chance.
Does this mean GM Ron Hextall should do his best Jim Rutherford imitation and start wheelin’ and dealin’ to upgrade?
Uh uh. Too many flaws…too many holes. You can only patch a worn-out tire so many times before you need to buy a new one. To say nothing of our egregious lack of cap space.
We’ll start with the defense. Although Kris Letang is still a special talent, his goal production is waning and he’s a UFA at the end of the season. Tanger almost would surely bring a decent haul should Hextall elect to deal him. Rather shockingly, defensive pillar Brian Dumoulin appears to be in decline (minus-seven, Corsi of 48 on a strong possession team). He’s got another season left on a team-friendly contract that pays him $4.1 million. He, too, could be trade bait.
Wunderkind John Marino appears to have stalled. Mike Matheson possesses wondrous skills that for some reason don’t translate into production. Chad Ruhwedel is a No. 7 d-man masquerading as a No. 6. Only Marcus Pettersson, much more assertive this season and one of the team’s most pleasant surprises along with Tristan Jarry, is exceeding expectations.
In other words, it would take a major overhaul to bring our defense up to Stanley Cup snuff. An overhaul we simply aren’t in a position to make.
While we’re evaluating needs behind the blue line, we could use a backup goalie to replace an ineffective Casey DeSmith. Maybe attainable. Maybe not.
I like our team better up front, especially when Malkin returns. We have decent depth with players like Evan Rodrigues and Danton Heinen in support roles, mitigated to an extent by the continued struggles of top-sixers Jason Zucker and Kasperi Kapanen. I personally think we lack a power element that youngster Drew O’Connor may provide if given a chance. Not a given under veteran-oriented coach Mike Sullivan.
Barring any significant upgrades, especially on defense, I think we’ll pretty much be standing where we are now as we approach the March 21 trade deadline. Perhaps a handful of games above break-even and scratching and clawing for an Eastern Conference wildcard spot.
If so, as my esteemed colleague Other Rick has so often suggested, perhaps it’s time to opt for the tear down. Distasteful though it may be, flip pending UFAs Letang, Malkin and Rust for assets in the form of up-and-comers and/or draft picks. Maybe RFA-to-be Kapanen and Zucker, too, if you can move them.
I’m not saying it won’t be painful. Parting with treasured all-timers like Geno and Tanger will hurt deeply, emotionally and artistically. If we move out all the players as suggested, we’ll need to promote a pack of not-ready-for-prime-time kids from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton who, at this early stage of their development, are hardly bona fide big-leaguers.
For a stretch it would be a return to the early 2000s or worse yet, the early ‘80s pre-Mario “Boys of Winter.” God, were those teams awful.
The good news…our new ownership group has deep pockets and should be able to sustain a few lean years while we rebuild.
The talent pool in the upcoming drafts is reputed to be strong. Take your medicine now. And build for a brighter future.
I agree with the person who said trade for E. Kane. I think we should keep Crosby, Malkin and Letang. I do think it is time we shop Rust, Zucker, Marino, Kapanen, Matheson, and Pettersson.
I think you could still make it work with the core we just need to get better players around them.
I think Hextall should look to deal for wingers for the 2nd line and new D. With this being said I think E. Kane would be a solid player for either of the top 2 lines and top PP.
I think they should look into acquiring Filip Forsberg if available, Linholm, Giordano, Chiarot. I know Hextall isn’t JR so he would probably only trade for a few players if not just 1 or two, but I think you revamp the D and the second line and hopefully we would see some better results. I wouldn’t shop Letang unless there were players available to replace him. I would consider trading Malkin because following the season there are a few good 2nd line center options available.
Rick
I think the penguins are ripe for a blockbuster trade. Talking about the Penguin Defense I believe Marino’s problems
stem from hanging onto the puck too long and trying to be something offensively that he’s not. With Matheson, I agree
his skill set hasn’t produced points but I think if they ran him out there with the 1st Power Play unit it may make a difference.
I do think it’s time for a major shakeup – Letang, Rust and a young prospect for some size and toughness would go along
way with improving the roster.
Well said brother !!! Very well said. I know that was NOT an easy article for you to write Rick.By nature you are a very loyal person who would like to be a peace maker,not a trouble maker. It is also obvious in the way you write your wonderful books about the Penguins. The Penguins have not a bigger Fan than you. For that you have my upmost respect.
I would really like to see GM Hextal go after Kane ASAP, plus their first round draft pick for 2022 OR their first pick of 2021, William Eklund drafted #7 th over all. He is a Swedish Center or left winger and BTW he was Rookie of the Year in the Swedish Hockey League and also won their Junior player of the year award. He has pedigree Rick. You may have to add a prospect player in return like Sam Poulin,who is NOT a GOAL scorer but a good third line player. Maybe he scores 20 goals a year. Eklund is an elite level talent who has so much more upside to his game. The key thing here is $$$$. To dump Kane
San Jose will have to eat over 10 million dollars in the next 3 and half years. If we were to give back 5 million in an Eklund/ Poulin trade then it starts to make sense. The Pen’s now have the money to do a deal like this.
Maybe we get lucky and they would trade their 2022 First round pick for our 2023 first round pick as part of the package.
One can only hope.
Cheers
Hey Rick,
Not only have I written about this, I have assaulted your ears for the past several months, in person, proposing this very idea; time to sell at the trade deadline.
However, it never ceases to amaze me the hatred some feel toward Malkin, as they always forget he has a full blown No Trade, No Movement Clause. Unless he chooses to go somewhere (and GMs and Owners could make the environment so brutal as to make anyone want to leave – but that would be absolutely classless). Furthermore, unless Malkin is an absolute bust, like Crosby has been, coming back, no I don’t trade him. Malkin and Crosby stay put in my book unless they ask for trades and I can orchestrate a win of a trade. The last thing this city needs is another Jagr for Beech, Lupaschuk, Sivek trade. However, all other pieces should be considered.
Unless Crosby and Malkin are washed up from the injuries they have sustained from every Tom Wilson out their, because Smellivan refused to provide them protection, then they could ease the pain of transition gracefully. Malkin would hav eto be willing to take a team friendly deal, not like the great ape got in Washington. Otherwise I try to transition just with Crosby – but as we are seeing that may be slightly painful.
If Malkin and Crosby do show signs of a couple more seasons in them, then even E-Rod is on the block. If either doesn’t show any real return to form, or Malkin is not amicable to a team friendly deal then E-Rod has to stay. He is not a Winger or a bottom 6 forward, but he can be effective a 2nd line Center on bottom third team. Playing top 6 he won’t help a team win the Cup but he could keep the team from being Arizona. He could even be sought after by a team contending as a 3rd line Center, I personally think that would be a mistake but I would try and market him in either role at the deadline (again assuming I chose to resign Malkin).
Kapanen may be a free agent but he is also young and I do not share your negative opinion of him. If he isn’t playing well, the blame lies squarely on Sullivan’s shoulders as he has opted to put the young Finn in his dog house, since he doesn’t have Malkin to blame right now. It seems that Sully always needs a player to blame when the team isn’t performing and this season he has chosen Kapanen.
However, Rust is aging and so is Zucker, Dumoulin, and as you say Letang. I would try and trade all of them and more. I would even consider trading Guentzel for the right price. He isn’t as old as the others but he isn’t a kid anymore either and he could fetch the biggest return.
This may upset Mike a little, but here me out completely. I do not delude myself on Letang, nor am I doing a hypocritical 180, but with the absolute dearth of RHD on this team, I would sit down with Letang and hash out some sort of gentleman’s agreement that I would resign him in the off-season if he okays any deal I make and not limit me to just the 18 teams or so that he can limit me to.
This team is more than 3 bricks shy of a load and it may take more than just 2 or 3 years to really become contenders again even with a good draft, great UFA signings, trades, and current prospects breaking out. I would want to get every Prospect/Draft Pick I could. JR decimated this team.
Truthfully, depending on what I would project my return to glory, even Jarry could be deemed expendable. In 23-24 he may be asking for $6 million like Murray. If we would be a contender, that may be an okay price but if we are still rebuilding, that would be too much.
Just throwing stuff out there.
They better not lose tonight!!!
I lean toward the tear down/rebuild. New ownership may be inclined to put their stamp on things.
Agreed !!