Since the Penguins won their second of back-to-back Cups in 2017, there’s been an audible shift in the makeup of teams that have captured Lord Stanley’s coveted chalice.
While speed-first squads have mostly fallen by the wayside, Washington and more recently, Tampa Bay, have triumphed with a hybrid style, blending speed and skill with size, physicality and structure. In a throwback to the Devils of the Martin Brodeur era, St. Louis prevailed in 2019 with a muscular, defense-first, counter-punching style.
The trend has continued this spring. Three of the four teams that made it to the Conference Finals employ the balanced style mentioned above.
The lone exception?
Colorado.
Bucking the recent trend, the Avalanche are channeling a Penguins-style puck-possession game that emphasizes speed, skill and an aggressive forecheck. They’re second in the postseason in Corsi at 57.72, behind only Calgary. The last team standing with a Corsi over 50 (the Lightning and Rangers are well down the list).
On the surface, their success appears to be an endorsement of the type of hockey we play under Mike Sullivan. They skate and compete hard…ferociously as a matter of fact…just like our Pens. They’re disciplined and generally don’t initiate the rough stuff or extracurricular scrums. Again, very Penguin-esque.
However, looks can be deceiving. The Avs possess an important element we lack.
Size.
Seven of the 14 forwards who’ve suited up for the Avs this postseason tip the scales at 200 pounds or better. Leading scorer Mikko Rantanen goes 6’4” 215, fellow top-six winger Valeri Nichushkin 6’4” 210. Team captain and two-time 30-goal man Gabriel Landeskog, the quintessential power forward, weighs in at a burly 215 pounds. Buzzsaw checker Nicolas Aube-Kubel, 214.
Megastar Nathan MacKinnon? An even two-bills, just like his Nova Scotia compatriot Sidney Crosby.
On defense Colorado boasts three 200-pounders, including Josh Manson (218 pounds) and the Johnson boys, Erik and ex-Pen Jack (225 and 227, respectively).
The Avs aren’t the only team among the conference finalists to value size. This spring the Lightning have employed 11 skaters who go 200 pounds or better, the recently ousted Oilers 10 and the Rangers an even dozen.
At the opposite end of the spectrum? Only six black-and-gold skaters were at or above the 14-stone, 4-pound mark, four forwards and two defensemen. That includes Crosby and Kris Letang. Hardly behemoths.
With an average weight of 206 pounds, the Lightning are the heaviest team in the NHL. The Rangers are fifth at 202 pounds. The Avs, 13th at 199 pounds and the Oilers 20th at 198. Our Pens? Thirtieth out of 32 teams at 195 pounds.
It should be noted that eight of the 11 lightest teams missed the playoffs.
Does size guarantee a Cup? No. But it sure doesn’t hurt. Especially when it comes to withstanding the rigors and physical pounding absorbed over four best-of-seven sets that follow directly on the heels of a grinding 82-game regular-season slate.
It’s no secret our Pens favor smaller, quicker players under Sullivan, a philosophy that’s extended to the draft table. Indeed, of the 28 position players selected in the Entry Draft since Sullivan took over the coaching reins, only six have weighed 200 pounds or better. Out of those half-dozen, only three…forwards Sam Poulin, Nathan Legare and Judd Caulfield…remain in the organization.
When it comes to player development? Big-and-tall players like Anthony Angello and Radim Zohorna appear to get a quick hook, while small but fast players like Dominik Simon have nine lives. Again, playing to Sullivan’s preferences.
Going forward, the Pens would do well to break from their Sully-driven mold and make room for some sizeable players. The better to mimic an Avalanche club that in some ways is imitating us.
One that seems poised to win a Cup.
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Hey all.
You're probably already aware, but Pensburgh is doing a "Season in Review" series on all the Penguins. It's a great read and very enlightening. Lots of analytics, including WAR, zone entries and exits, etc.
Rick
Hey Rick,
Spot on! Size doesn't preclude speed a fact our Coach doesn't seem to understand. Giving all else equal, he seems to always goes for the smaller of 2 players.
I do want to add another big difference between the current Avs roster and our roster, age. The Penguins biggest guns, Crosby, Malkin and Letang are 34, 35, and 34 respectively. While in the real world, mid 30s is young, in Hockey terms it is old. Colorado's stars are play with the speed, skill, and size of bygone Pens teams. This Pens teams highest skilled players this passed season cannot play at that speed, with that skill anymore. Yes, they still could play to Center or D on most teams in the NHL, but they aren't the best anymore, just one of several 2nd tier players. The drop off between a young MacKinnon and Makar abd Crosby and Letang is extremely noticeable.
The Other Rick
I'm nit-picking here but Letang has already turned 35, Malkin will turn 36 in July and Crosby 35 in August. I'm
in agreement we need an influx of young talent. This is why you can't give Geno or Letang more than 2yr
deals between 5 & 6mil per year. If Hextall gives them more term it will set the organization back for several
years. GO PENS
Hey Mike,
Truthfully, my first preference would be move on from them for that very reason you give; hanging on to them was a serious mistake this trade deadline. Unfortunately, the team chose to futilely chase another Cup, rather than prepare for the future. Now, after passing up the opportunity, team friendly deals like you mention can make sense, so long as the deal remains team friendly. If Montreal offers Letang $8 Million for 5-years and Washington offers $7 Million to Malkin to unite him with Ovie, no let them go. If Montreal and Washington want to be stupid, great for Geno and Kris but GMRH better not join their brain dead club and get into that bidding war.
Hopefully tomorrow I will have the time to finish my What I would do fantasy piece, so you will see what I would do about 71 and 58, but my thoughts aren't all that different than yours.
I can't deny that I have thought about what another 1st round pick this draft and Anton Lundl could do for this team in the near future, but that ship sailed a while ago.
Well said Coach. Rick did a great job on the article above.
There is another variable I want to add in to the mix besides size, speed and age. That is hockey talent and high Hockey IQ that comes from playing in International play,World Junior Championships,National Championships, at the Olympics, or the Memorial Cup. Competition makes elite players better by playing against the best talent on the planet at their age group.
Usually fourth ,fifth or higher round draft picks do not get this kind of training at a young age.So when you get first round draft picks, and the top 15 first round draft picks, you are getting the best of the best usually.
This is another advantage the Avs have over us.
FYI. Cale Makar was drafted 4th overall and the first defense man taken in the draft. Bowen Byram was also the first defense man drafted in his draft at 4th as well.How many 20 year old's do you know that could play in the Stanley Cup play offs and play as well as he did against Edmonton and St.Louis? This is the type of talent that wins cups Coach.
Erik Johnson was drafted first over all and Jack Johnson was drafted 3rd over all in their respected drafts.Ryan Murray was drafted 2nd overall in his draft year. 5 defense men all the best of their draft class. That is impressive team building my friend.Then add in the exceptions to the rule. Sam Girard, taken 47th who is a phenomenal offensive talent and Devon Teows drafted in the fourth round who is as good a 2 way defense man as any on our team and you have a juggernaut on the back end. Big Josh Mason 6'3" and Kurtis MacDermid 6'5" 235#,add more snarl to the line up. That is 9 defense men when healthy.All cap compliant as well.
On the forwards Nate MacKinnon first over all , Gabe Landeskog 2nd overall, Nazem Kadri taken 7th over all, Mikko Rantanen and Valeri Nichushnkin both taken 10th in their respected drafts, both Martin Kraut and Alex Newhook taken 16th and Andre Burakovsky taken 23rd overall and Andrew Cogliano taken 25th.
That is 14 first round picks in total the Avalanche have to draw from. That is what you call depth of talent Coach !!!!
FYI, JT Compher was drafted 35th, Nicolas Aube-Kubel drafted 48th and Artturi Lehkonen drafted at 55th. All great role players you need to win a Cup.
Just wanted to bring this up to show just how deep the Av's really are and Sidney Crosby and our core can NOT compete with the best in the league as you often have said.
Age, Speed , Size and High Hockey IQ !!! The keys for success....Plus great Coaching and Cap Space......
We can not forget those 2 key ingredients as well.
Look at the farm system we have and it is non existent compared to the top 10 - 15 teams in the league.
That is the real problem Coach.Bringing back Letang or Malkin will not solve this fudemental issue.
Cheers
JIM
PS--I didn't mention Kurtis MacDermid among the sizeable Avs in my article because he hasn't played in the postseason. But he played in 58 games for them during the regular season and he's as tough as they come. On a very short list of guys (Nicolas Deslauriers being another) who can hold their own with Ryan Reaves when the gloves come off.
Rick
Hey Rick,Thanks for the kind words my friend. FYI,
The Av's signed Kurtis to a two year extension about 3 month's ago when GM Joe Sakic said because he plays defense and also 4th line left wing he is a necessary part of our team. He does everything we ask of him !
I wonder what he meant by that Rick ? Just maybe if he was on our team Trouba would never have laid a hand on Jake or Sid.
Cheers
JIM
Great comments, my friend. And they dovetail perfectly with a piece over on Pittsburgh Hockey Now written by Dave Molinari where he lists players who've been taken with the 21st overall pick (our slot this season) in recent drafts. In most cases, these guys have been very ordinary players or worse.
As you so aptly noted, you've gotta draft high...probably in the top five to ten picks overall...to get quality players. With so much more emphasis on scouting and analytics, the chances of unearthing gems like Alex Goligoski (second round) and Kris Letang and Jake Guentzel (third rounders) in the later rounds are far less likely these days.
Since we didn't go the trade-your-stars-while-they-still-have-value route, I fear we're going to eventually have to go through an extended down stretch to stockpile high draft picks. And even then, there's no guarantee of getting a franchise player like Mario Lemieux or Sidney Crosby.
Rick