The past couple of months haven’t exactly been the best stretch of hockey for our Penguins. Since a 5-1 victory over Columbus back on March 22, we’ve gone a sub-pedestrian 4-7-2. Since we ran off a six-game winning streak that concluded with a victory over Arizona on January 25? We’re 16-13-6. Hardly the stuff of Stanley Cup champions.
By comparison, our 2015-16 Cup winners finished with a red-hot 14-2 flourish. The following season? We stumbled down a 7-8 homestretch.
Okay, so maybe there’s hope for postseason success after all.
Or maybe not. There’s a whole lot that needs fixin’ in order for our guys to be competitive in the postseason. In no particular order, here are some areas that need attention.
Defense
There’s an old adage. Championships are won with pitching and defense. Oops…wrong sport. Well, not the defense part. Keeping the puck out of your own net greatly enhances your chances of hoisting the Cup.
The Pens haven’t been doing so hot at goal prevention of late. During the aforementioned 13-game span we’ve yielded 45 non-shootout goals, an average of well over 3 per game. Over a 28-game stretch we’ve allowed four goals or more nine times. Give up four goals in a playoff game and chances are pretty good you’re going to lose.
The breakdown in the team’s defensive structure started out gradually and seems to have accelerated of late. The NHL schedule-makers didn’t do us any favors, pitting us against a prolonged and murderous run of games against the league’s elite. But we were having difficulties before then.
Brian Dumoulin’s decline has hurt. The previously rock-solid defensive bulwark has been noticeable this season…for all the wrong reasons. Although his underlying numbers, 49.38 Corsi aside, are still fairly solid and he leads the team with a plus-21, he’s been slower and more mistake prone than at any time in his career.
The dip in his quality of play led coach Mike Sullivan to drop him to the second pairing alongside John Marino while elevating Mike Matheson to the top tandem with Kris Letang. With a 5v5 goals for percentage of 64.29, Letang-Matheson have been exceptional. However, on the flip side Dumoulin-Marino have been an unmitigated disaster, yielding 12 5v5 goals against to only 6 for.
The shuffling has had an unwanted trickle-down effect as well. Although they’ve enjoyed a strong Corsi of 54.41, the Marcus Pettersson–Chad Ruhwedel pairing has been outscored 9-4 at 5v5. Mark Friedman and Ruhwedel have fared better (6 for and 7 against), but they’ve hardly been great.
The solution? Restore the original Dumoulin-Letang, Pettersson-Marino, Matheson-Ruhwedel defensive pairings used through the early part of the season. Each pairing had a positive Corsi. The top two pairings were in the black on 5v5 goals for and against, the third pairing only slightly underwater. In particular, such a shift would throw Marino and Pettersson, woefully ineffective with other partners, a much-needed life line.
Still, it’s hardly ideal, especially burying Matheson…arguably our best defenseman over the past couple months…on the third pairing.
Another option? Pair Matheson with Friedman, which seemed to work in limited action. Or, and here’s a real stretch, recall all-but-forgotten Juuso Riikola, who’s had a strong season with the Baby Pens (34 points in 48 games), and team him with Matheson. The pair had a 77.27 Corsi in a very brief time together.
Of course, your defense is only as good as your goaltending…or vice versa. With Tristan Jarry on the shelf for the foreseeable future with a broken bone in his foot, the makeshift combo of Casey DeSmith and Louis Domingue must prove up to the task.
While I love the way he battles, DeSmith seems to play just well enough to lose on many nights. I must admit I’m intrigued by Domingue, who’s larger and has shone with the Baby Pens (.924 save percentage). Louis also turned in two stellar performances for the Pens, one in preseason and the other a 40-save effort against San Jose on January 15.
The fact that he catches with his right hand? It just might throw opponents off.
Depth Scoring
Although it’s showing signs of coming around, the Pens need more consistent scoring from their bottom nine forwards.
Teddy Blueger has one goal in his past 23 games. Kasperi Kapanen, two in his past 35. Evan Rodrigues, three in 44, including one put in by an opposing defenseman. Brock McGinn, two in his past 20.
Simply unacceptable.
Although he’s been lethal on the power play, Evgeni Malkin hasn’t exactly been burning up the track at even strength either (nine goals and 18 points in 37 games), although his paucity of production can be linked to an extent to a virtual revolving door of linemates.
Hopefully some consistent playing time with Rickard Rakell and/or Bryan Rust will help jump start Geno’s 5v5 game, although the latter’s been slumping (no points in four games) since being pulled from the top line.
The good news? Danton Heinen’s been hot of late. Big Brian Boyle has four goals and 10 points in his past 18 games. And Jeff Carter has six goals and seven assists in his past 20, numbers mitigated by a ghastly minus-12 over his past 10 games.
Bottom line? We’re still predominantly a one-line team. And one-line teams don’t win in the playoffs.
Structure and Coaching
For the better part of the second half of the season, the Pens have resembled a fire-drill on ice. In all my years of watching hockey, I don’t think I’ve seen a team yield as many odd-man breaks as we do.
Sullivan seems wedded to his forechecking game. When it works, it’s a thing of beauty. When it doesn’t work…an ever-increasing phenomenon over the last couple of months…we have no fall-back plan.
Memo to Mike. We aren’t the fastest team in the league any more, not even in the Metro. Nor are we the most skilled.
Might it behoove the Pens to downshift the attack a notch in favor of a more disciplined, counter-punching style? An earlier version of black and gold used the 1-4 delay to great effect on the way to the 1992 Cup. Sullivan himself adjusted a couple of years ago during a similarly porous stretch by keeping a forward back to help with defensive zone play and exits.
Which begs another question. Is Sully capable of coaching the team he has, and not the one he wishes he had? As a general rule, he tries to make his players fit his system, rather than adjusting his system to fit his players.
Okay. Back to my original question. Can the Penguins be fixed?
Surprisingly, my answer is yes. But it’s going to require 100 percent buy-in from everyone, not to mention the coaching staff making all the right moves and pushing all the right buttons.
I’m not sure that part’s attainable.
Rick,
I appreciate your optimism my friend.
I think my question is What is there to fix ? We are an old team with aging stars and NO YOUNG SUPER STARS to help carry the load across the finish line.We have NO talent in WBS ready to go today that will make any difference with a round 1 match up with the powerful Panthers or the Rangers or Carolina. I am afraid to say there is nothing to fix Rick.
Our team is just in decline.
It is like taking a 10 year old race car and driving it a full throttle on a NASCAR track and then it blows up after 25 laps because it can not stand up as it once did. The New cars can go 75 laps at an even higher speeds before anything happens. There is nothing wrong with the 10 year old race car….It was how it was used is the problem.
Same as the Pen’s. They are a good team and during the regular season they can do above average wins but coming in to the play offs our weaknesses show and we get beat .Like so many times previously in the play offs.
So as I say there is nothing we can fix that will make any real difference in the 2022 playoffs short of a Coaching Change as Coach said above, that is not happening…… yet !!!.
I stand by my earlier statement of a few weeks ago…” We are watching the last dance unfold before our eyes “. I plan to enjoy every moment until the very end and remember the 16 wonderful years of following my Pens !!
Cheers
JIM
You need a new team if you want to win the Stanley Cup.
Hey Rick,
Great question! Great piece!
Of course you know my answer, it is the antithesis of yours – no this team, as it stands right now, today, it can’t be fixed.
How can I say this you may ask;
1) There is no balance
A) in the lines.
The greatest line I have ever witness play was the Gilles – Trottier – Bossy line. It was perfectly balanced. Gilles was the grit/grinder, Trottier the play maker, and Bossy the sniper. Unfortunately, our Penguins, even though they may have the pieces parts in the system, they refuse to accept balance. Way too often, our Coach trots out 3 play makers on a line and they skate the perimeter, each and every one of the three, looking for that last best pass to shoot, rather than just putting the puck on net.
B) or in the Defense
There is no shut down defensemen on the roster or perhaps even in the system, anywhere. In a recent Tribune Revue articel Matt Vensel listed his All – Time Penguins Stanley Cup team. He recognized the need for defensive defensemen, and he made sure that outside his top pairing of Coffey – Murphy, the other 2 pairings were balanced, Ulfie with Letang and Orpik with Gonchar. When time and space are taken away from these “Mobile, Puck Moving Defensemen” (and I put those words in quotes as I don’t believe they really are) these stick waving milquetoasts are lost. They can’t defend. They have no idea how to play their position in the defensive zone.
2) There is no grit. This team is not hockey tough, despite Sully’s delusional assertions to the contrary. Taking hits from opponents doesn’t make you hockey tough, there is a totally different appellation for people that love to be smacked around. Boyle, Carter and Rakell maybe the only 2 forwards on this team that are willing to consistently go to the blue paint. The rest of the team like to dance around the perimeter.
In the defensive zone, only Letang seems willing to put body on body, everyone else just waves their sticks at people.
And Sully’s allergy to True Grit (great movie) is perhaps the primary reason for Jarry being on the shelf right now. If this team had an Ulfie on it, precious few opponents would dare run a Penguin Goalie for fear of Ulfie’s open ice retribution.
3) The Coaching
A) Outside of Vellucci’s PK the rest of this team has been beyond inconsistent, they have been down right Jekyll and Hyde.
B) With Kapanen and Rakell and some of the other players on this team, physical team speed isn’t the real issue as to why other team’s look faster. Opponents beat the Penguins to the puck and to open areas because Sullivan doesn’t change anything. Opponents do not have to guess, there is no hesitation for them, they just take off flying to the puck or the dead spot.
C) Even if the team had picked up a legit back-up at the dead-line, Sullivan’s allergy to grit would have left the team sans it starter. Even if the team picked up tougher players at the deadline, just like Sullivan’s lack of using Reaves, those players wouldn’t have played. Even if the team picked up a couple of faster, more skilled players, the schemes would have remained the same and opponents still wouldn’t have to hesitate, they could still just go all out in attack mode.
The only thing that could salvage this season is a coaching change and that isn’t going to happen.
Looking at the influx size that Mr Hextall is bringing in, the off season may bring change, but this season, it is a total loss.