Compliance and the Cap: Who Might the Penguins Trade?

Tick, tick, tick…

If you listen closely, you can hear the time on the Penguins’ offseason clock inexorably ticking down. Indeed, as the golden days of August continue to fly off the calendar, we have 62 days to go before the start of the regular season on October 13. That’s when our favorite flightless waterfowl will need to be salary cap compliant.

According to CapFriendly, we’re presently $1.48 million over the cap limit of $82.5 million. They list us as carrying 14 forwards (including Drew O’Connor), eight defenseman (including Mark Friedman but sans Pierre-Olivier Joseph) and two goalies for a total of 24 players. One over the limit.

PuckPedia pegs us at a more favorable $780 K over the line, based on a 23-man roster. They include Joseph ($825 K) but not O’Connor ($750 K) and Friedman ($775 K).

Any way you slice it, we’re over the spending limit. Following the PuckPedia model, the simplest way for us to get compliant is to send recently acquired defenseman Ty Smith to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

That works, right?

Well…sort of. While farming out the waiver-exempt Smith would shave $863 K off our cap total and enable us to limbo under the line, that’s about all it would do. With barely $83 K in cap space, the Pens wouldn’t be able to recall a player from the Baby Pens in the event of a short-term injury. Which would place us in a dicey spot, indeed. Especially with a veteran team that’s sure to get dinged up.

So who among the Pens might be traded? As the old saying goes, “Follow the cigar smoke and find the fat man there.” Or in this case, follow the dollar signs.

Who outside of our core and the recently signed make the most coin?

The trail leads directly to left wing Jason Zucker, in the final year of a contract that pays him $5.5 million. Close behind are defensemen Brian Dumoulin ($4.1) and Marcus Pettersson ($4.083).

It’s difficult to imagine a potential trade partner accepting Zucker due to his cap hit, recent health woes and productivity issues…at least without a substantial pot sweetener. Which narrows the field.

Just a wild guess. I think GM Ron Hextall would be most interested in moving Pettersson. It doesn’t have as much to do with the rangy Swede’s performance…generally effective…as the length of his contract, which has three more seasons to run. Not to mention gaining some much-needed flexibility on the blue line.

Dealing Pettersson would likely facilitate Jan Rutta being shifted to his off side on the second pairing beside fellow newcomer Jeff Petry, while bringing Chad Ruhwedel, solid last season (and inexpensive), back into play on the third pairing. The feisty Friedman might be spared exposure to the waiver wire as well.

However, it isn’t simply a matter of dumping unwanted salary on an NHL version of The Little Sisters of the Poor. In the cut-throat game of salary-cap poker, the teams with cap space hold all the high cards.

Nor are the Pens the only team looking to sell. For example, the Islanders are rumored to have a deal in place for high-profile free agent Nazem Kadri, contingent on creating cap space. They’re reported to be shopping forward Josh Bailey, a dependable 32-year-old veteran with two years left on a deal that pays him $5 million per season, without much success.

The Isles are said to be offering forward prospect and former first-round pick Kieffer Bellows as a sweetener.

Back to my original point. Including the black and gold, 13 of the league’s 32 teams are presently over the cap limit according to PuckPedia…some dramatically so. Ten other clubs have less than $5 million in available cap space.

The three teams that have gobs of available cap space (close to $20 million apiece)…Anaheim, Arizona and Buffalo…figure to be heavily courted. Picture a long line of prospective grooms on the show The Bachelorette. A fourth club, Chicago, has roughly $12 million in cap space and several roster spots to fill.

At first blush, the Blackhawks may be a good suitor for the Pens. They presently have only four NHL defensemen under contract, so there’s a definite need where we have abundance. Whether they’d be enamored of either Dumoulin or Pettersson would be a point of conjecture…the Hawks are presently in full tear-down mode. I can see them being more interested in an inexpensive up-and-comer like Joseph or Smith. But then we don’t get the cap relief we need.

A better option? The Sabres, a team on the rise with more cap space to boot. They appear to have an opening for a veteran defenseman like Dumoulin to help mentor wunderkind Owen Power and serve as a stabilizer for a young and inexperienced blue-line corps.

The Coyotes are rumored to be shopping Jakob Chychrun (although probably not to the Pens) and may be in the market for a veteran portside anchor to replace him.

However, moving “Dumo,” who endured a difficult 2021-22 following several seasons of meritorious performance, could potentially destabilize our top pairing and result in an unwanted trickle-down effect.

Too, Hextall may need to kick in a (high) future pick and/or a prospect like Samuel Poulin to seal any kind of deal. So there’s liable to be some pain involved.

In the meantime, the summertime seconds continue to tick off the clock.

Tick, tick, tick…