It seems most of the hockey universe is ready to write off Kasperi Kapanen, from most Pittsburgh fans that I talk to they sincerely believe he’s a nothing burger, it seems that every hockey journalist thinks the same.
Not so fast, the kid is on the brink of that breakout if not on it already, what makes me say that? Surely I can’t think this blip of a hot streak is anything special, as he’s had them before, then followed that hot streak with a cold streak the size of Antarctica.
So lets dig just a bit, across Kapanen’s last 4 games he has 5 PTS, with 4G and 1A. He netted himself a hat trick against, St. Louis which is where most of his points came from, now I understand that St. Louis has been on the struggle bus, they have themselves a atrocious 3.89 GA/GP and don’t get me started on what a disaster Jordan Binnington is.
But the stats that are leading me to believe Kapanen has climbed over the hill towards breakout territory, is his Hits & SOG per game. He was a healthy scratch for 9 straight games which is crazy, but it seems it worked because he has 15 Hits and 11 SOG in 4GP, with a 18.5 S%.
The most important stat in all of that is Hits, why? Because hits show me that a player is engaged in the game, which has been, at least in my opinion Kapanen’s greatest weakness. He normally is just floating around the ice like casper the ghost, accomplishing nothing, which was the same eye test assessment I gave Jesse Puljujarvi.
In the Penguins last outing against the Blue Jackets, Kapanen got himself 5 HITS! He also registered a 1 SOG, he didn’t register a point, but that dosen’t bother me, he kept hitting which means he’s still on track and he’s still engaged.
Now Kapanen has done all this only averaging a 12:17 time on ice, which makes it even more promising, that means every shift he’s working to get something done. All this being said, this is indeed a small sample size, it’s only around 4-5 games since his 9 game scratch, so what I’ll be looking for is if he can continue this another 5-10 games at this same level of HITS, BLKS, SOG. He isn’t going to continue to have a 18.5 Shooting % as that’s Leon Draisaitl numbers, but he had a 16.2 S% in his 20-21 season so I would want him to return to those numbers. He’s not to far off from that so he’s only 2% above that production.
If he can continue then I have no doubt this year is his breakout, and I would expect that in the remaining 56 games he can pull off a 45-55 point season. He has himself so far 10PTS in 17GP with 5G & 5A, and 5 of those points coming in the last 4GP is very promising. If he continues but then falls off again, and continues his up and down ways, then he has one more season before you can call him what he is and that would be a 30 -40 point – 3rd/4th liner.
So what is Kapanen’s actual skill level? What kind of production can you expect from him next season if he breaks out? The following is based upon of course stats but also my eye test, which I consider myself to be good at as I predicted players potential before they had done anything or anyone was talking about them, like William Karlsson, Evan Rodrigues, Ivan Barbashev, Matt Boldy, just to name a few.
Based on watching Kapanen for awhile, with his shot and speed, and the caliber of players he’s playing with I think a 50 – 60 point 30 goal scorer isn’t out of the question. I think his celing might be even higher actually, if he really commits I think he could reach close to or at PPG numbers, I know, I know crazy right?
It is easy as a fan or journalist to say Kasperi Kapanen will never come close to those numbers, as he’s been close to invisible before his healthy scratch. I really trust my eyes, but its not just my eyes that haven’t let me down, looking across Kapanen’s stats I see a average S% from 11% to 16%. His best year his S% was as low as 11% in which he notched his highest season of 44PTS with 20G-24A in 78GP.
For perspective Patrik Laine averages a S% of 12% – 16%, Alex DeBrincat averages around 15.5 S%, Patrice Bergeron averages a S% of 12% – 15%. Those are just a few examples of top scoring produces and Kasperi Kapanen is on track across his seasons to be there with them, sometimes it takes players longer to breakout, espically in todays NHL, look at Jack Hughes who’s been on a absolute heater.
Of course Kasperi Kapanen is not in the same caliber class as Jack Hughes, but the fans and journalists have too quickly jumped the gun to say Kapanen is done and he is what he is. He is currently at 338 career games, now if he hasn’t broken out after 400 games, you can offically right him off, normally players around his size (6’1 – 194 LB) break out around the 250 – 350 range.
Kapanen could be on the brink, the volcano might burst, and the Maple Leaf tears will continue to run.
Hey Caleb,
If you look back to a post I had on Nov. 30th “The Penguins on Average”, you will see at that time the league average for Primary Points/60 5-on-5 for forwards was 1.33 and Kappy was at 2.02, well above the league average, yet all of the fans and the coach were whining about him. He was 4th on the team at that time and they were complaining. They weren’t complaining about Carter, Archibald, Rust, or McGinn, just Kapanen.
I have always liked Kapanen. He is also very defensively responsible, having one of the lowest 5-on-5 TGA/60 of any forward on the team.
I would love to see him pop off right now, not just for his sake but for the team’s sake.
Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening. The negativity that has been heaped on him by Coach and fans alike to see him play better, he has been playing very well will make it hard for him to perform in Pgh. So, I agree that Kappy is good but I don’t see him do it here.
I wish Sully would play him on the PK. He played well on the PK in Toronto and his speed gets him a lot of shorty chances. I don’t understand why Sully refuses to play him on the PK. Like I said, it’s not like he doesn’t have a history of playing well on the PK.
Kappy is definitely super talented. I still don’t think the contract is gonna be a good one though. I don’t think any Pens fans did at the time of the signing. They signed him for the same amount that Toronto signed him coming off a 20 goal and 44 point season.
I thought it should’ve been 2.5M-2.8M per. That extra 500-700K would have let them carry a 23rd man on the roster. But I always route for Kappy and if he does “breakout” it’s makes the Pens a much more dangerous team.
Well, well, well. The Prodigal Son returns… 🙂
Seriously, welcome back to the writing side, my friend. And a nice bit of work.
I know you have an eye for guys on the verge of a breakout…you sang Rodrigues’ praises well in advance of his hot first half last season. But I’m afraid I’m not as optimistic about Kapanen as you. Don’t get me wrong…I think he’s got all the attributes to be a 20-goal, 50-point guy. Decent size, speed, good hands and a sizzling shot. But it’s the application of those skills that concerns me. There were just so many nights last season when he was invisible. I know he lost his confidence, which was a huge factor in his poor showing. But I worry that he’s still going to be prone to those emotional swings.
I do think Mike Sullivan dumbied it down for Kappy. Keep it simple, use your speed, drive to the net and shoot. As long as he follows that edict, he should produce in a way that’s commiserate with a middle-six player. But I think he’s going to need constant reinforcement…especially if he goes through a dry spell and his confidence dips.
Rick