Penguins and Rangers: Who’s Gonna’ Win?

Over the past several seasons, I’ve gone with my heart over my head when evaluating the Penguins’ playoff prospects. Well, that’s not entirely true. Last season I genuinely believed we had a team that could go a few rounds and even challenge for the Cup.

Wish I felt that way this time around. Especially with it in all likelihood being the last dance for our big three of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.

Reflecting on our upcoming first-round matchup with the Rangers, I’m reminded of a song from the Broadway musical Annie Get Your Gun. Anything You Can Do (I Can Do Better).

I think that pretty much sums up this series…and unfortunately our chances. During our four regular-season contests (three of them New York wins), the Rangers consistently beat us to the punch in terms of speed and forechecking. In effect, beating us at our own game.

In terms of talent, the Metro rivals are fairly even. Both possess plenty of firepower at the top of the lineup. The Rangers boast “The Breadman,” 96-point scorer Artemi Panarin, eel-slick Mika Zibanejad and power-forward extraordinaire Chris Kreider (52 goals). The Pens counter with the dynamic duo of Crosby (84 points) and Jake Guentzel (40 goals) and a still-dangerous Malkin (20 goals in 41 games).

Both clubs feature a decent cast of support players; the Rangers Ryan Strome, former No. 1 pick Alexis Lafreniere and trade deadline pickups Andrew Copp and Penguin-killer Frank Vatrano; the black and gold Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell and Jeff Carter.

Each team possesses a pair of double-figure goal scorers and puck movers on the blue line, Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba for New York and Letang and Mike Matheson for the Pens.

If the Rangers have an exploitable weakness, it’s their fourth line and third defensive pair.

However, the New Yorkers hold a considerable edge between the pipes…one that could ultimately be the deciding factor. Although Casey DeSmith has performed admirably and even valiantly in relief of injured starter Tristan Jarry, he isn’t in the same class as Blueshirts puck-stopper Igor Shesterkin, who limited us to a paltry four goals during the regular season. (No one is.)

It doesn’t help that the Pens responded to Shesterkin’s dominance the wrong way. Instead of keeping it simple and putting shots on goal and then crashing the net for follow-up chances, we got too fancy and tried to make the perfect play. A tactic that almost never works in the postseason, when time and space are at a premium.

Factor in our poor finishing? Not exactly an ideal setup.

While we’re at it, I’m also worried about Kreider, who scored three goals against us during the regular season. Although rail-thin Marcus Pettersson tries to move guys away from the net, we simply don’t have anyone who can match up physically with the imposing 6’3” 217-pounder. Combined with our stick-on-puck philosophy when it comes to defense? Kreider likely gets to set up shop in front of DeSmith unfettered.

It brings back chilling memories of the 1989 playoffs and Flyers behemoth Tim Kerr, who scored 10 goals against us in seven games.

I have other concerns. To be blunt, I question whether we’re physically able to withstand the rigors of postseason hockey, let alone employ a playoff-style game. Especially with an aging group. The Pens are at their best when opponents cede them time and space to make plays. A luxury the quick-transitioning Rangers aren’t likely to provide.

I mentioned the following points in my previous post but they bear repeating. When we score, we’ve developed a nasty tendency to let up and allow the other team to counter right away. This isn’t a new phenomenon, but one that first reared its ugly head during our four-game sweep at the hands of the Islanders in 2019. As an extension, we don’t seem to be able to play with or protect a lead. A must if we’re going to succeed at all.

Unless coach Mike Sullivan’s able to give the troops a crash course in Playoff Hockey 101, I just don’t see those negative trends changing for the better.

Special teams will undoubtedly play a key part as well. Unfortunately, our power play has flat-lined in recent weeks.

Add it all up and toss it in a blender? I think our only real chance for a series victory is a Shesterkin injury. Which would force the Rangers to turn to a generally ineffective Alexandar Georgiev (.898 save percentage) or journeyman Keith Kinkaid.

If Shesterkin remains hale and healthy? Although it’s possible the Pens will rise up and give an impassioned effort on behalf of Sid, Geno and Tanger, the naked truth is we haven’t been playing sound fundamental hockey for quite some time. It’s hard to imagine us finding the elusive ‘on’ switch at this stage.

As much as I hate to write it, look for an inglorious end to the Crosby-Malkin-Letang era with the Pens bowing in five…maybe six games.

So Who’s Going to Win the Cup?

I think it’ll be one of three teams from the West…Minnesota, Calgary or Colorado. I especially like the way the Wild and Flames are constructed, with an optimal, playoff-style blend of skill, size and grind, along with stellar goaltending.

As an aside, I think former Pens assistant GM Bill Guerin has done a masterful job in building the Wild into a legit Cup contender. Simply brilliant.

The team I don’t see going all the way? Florida. As deep and powerful as the Panthers are, the goaltending duo of Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight is suspect.

So there you have it. Given how notoriously bad I am at making predictions, I’d go out and double down on the exact opposite occurring…lol.