Penguins Playoff Prospects and Problems

Preface

This was originally going to be a response to our good friend Rick Buker (aka the Silver Fox – at least that is what his hair stylist says all the woman call him, where he gets his hair cut).

There are a lot of Pittsburgh Penguins’ fans out there who were disappointed with the way our waddling waterfowl finished the season. Me, I wasn’t one of them. Look back at what I wrote in my preseason predictions; I thought this team would be hard pressed to make it to the dance. I over-estimated the New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers, and New Jersey Devils. In October, I thought this team would finish somewhere between 4 and 7 in the Division. They exceeded my expectations.

Many of our fellow fans out there are not all that happy right now. They still thought this team was a contender. Their expectations were not met.

Now that our Penguins are back in the show, the question is, “What are the keys to them at least winning a game or 2?”

I am a scientist, an Exercise Physiologist. When not writing here on Penguin Poop, I am constantly looking at laws of probability and trying to maximize results based on the most likely outcome of a certain action or actions. As Rick B, in his last post and a couple of his commenters acknowledged, anything can happen once the play off starts. However, in the world of probabilities, 1 Penguins’ victory over the Rangers, at best, may only be 50-50, 4 victories has got to be down in the 1 in 25 or 1 in 30 range, given the way they have performed, or more so, regressed over the course of this season.

However, nothing is completely impossible – we may see that 1 in 30 shot.

From what I have seen the keys to not getting swept and maybe even maximizing what, in all likelihood, will be the end of an era is,

Coaching

I really was hoping for our Birds of Winter to drop down to the Wild Card spot and play the Florida Panthers. I would certainly rather face Sergei Bobrovsky than Igor Shesterkin. Bobs has a history of choking in the playoffs and as talented as the Panthers are among their skaters, Florida doesn’t play our Pens enough to know this team inside and out, like our Metro Division teams do. As our friend Jim commented on Rick’s last post, “Sullivan is a 1-Dimensional Coach”, making him and the Coaching Staff this team’s greatest liability.

Our Coach and his staff are still trying to Coach the 2015-2016 incarnation of the Pittsburgh Penguins; that team is long gone. Mike Sullivan has to look over the players on this roster and start putting them in positions to succeed, not fail. He has to stop playing favorites, ignore what players have done in the past and consider what they are doing now and what their strengths and liabilities are today not 5 years ago.

Sullivan needs to come up with a plan “B” and “C” and not think that plan “A” will work in all situations. Other teams are not really that much faster than our Penguins, they just look that way because of the SOP (Same Old Penguins) strategies, to which our Coach doggedly, jealously, egotistically clutches. Opponents need not hesitate to see where the Penguins are going to be in any given situation. They always funnel to the boards and play perimeter hockey. It is 5 years past time for new Breakouts, Zone entries, and forechecks for starters.

Sullivan also has to start coaching and not lazily throwing players in the press box. Professional athletes don’t need anyone telling them they screwed up. They know it. And when they are in a slump, they don’t need a Draconian Old School Martinette yelling at them or an uninspired, lazy Coach ignoring them and leaving it up to them to work their way out of the slump. They need help. They need ideas on how to fix what is going wrong to get them back on track.

Finally, reading some of the quotes, from some of the players this past couple of days, they suggest that this team is already defeated. They are talking about their last hurrah, as if it were already a fait accompli. Sullivan has to find a way to boost the team’s morale. The only time a team should talk about its last hurrah is when they are reminiscing with their grand children.

Offense

STOP, and STOP now with this driving the offense through the defense. As I have written several times now, this team is not the 1994 Washington Capitals, with Sylvain Cote, Al Iafrate, Kevin Hatcher, and Calle Johanson manning the blue line. The only two defensemen who should have be given any discretionary rules for carrying the puck, pinching, and pushing the offense should be Kris Letang and Mike Matheson (I can’t believe I just wrote that – but I have to express the truth). Marcus Pettersson’s last game not withstanding (scoring against Jean-Francios Berube is hardly a recommendation for carte blanche – 0.900 Sv% and 4.12 GAA), neither he nor Brian Dumoulin, John Marino, or Chad Ruhwedel should be carrying the puck or jumping below the top of the face-off circles.

The coaching staff has to put the puck back on the sticks of the forwards. With the removal of Dominik Simon and Zach Aston-Reese, there are lot of good forwards on this roster. If the Coach learns how to balance his lines and put each player in a position to exploit their natural gifts they will score. A person may be able to get a way with pounding a nail with the back end of screwdriver or turn a screw with a dime, but it is far more efficient to use a hammer to pound nails, turn a screw with a screwdriver and cut wood with a saw.

Barry Trotz laid out the road map to beating the Penguins and told the whole world last playoffs. He told the world that you need never worry about Sidney Crosby shooting the puck. He always pulls up just inside the blue line, waits for Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust to flow past him, then tries to feed the puck back door for a highlight reel goal. When Crosby is on the ice all you need to do is clog the passing lanes and knock Guentzel on his wallet and you eliminate the first line.

To stop Malkin, pressure him into giving the puck away. Sullivan rarely gives him Wingers or at least Wingers with which he has chemistry, so Geno almost always tries to create the offense himself. All the New York Rangers need to do is attack the big Russian and wait for a mistake.

Several weeks ago, here on these boards, the discussion surrounded the idea of Center drive. Many of our regular commenters beamed over Ricard Rakell and the number of plays he was able to create with the Center drive. Unfortunately, that is a tool, our Penguins almost always leave in the toolbox. The Smurf forwards that Sullivan would prefer to put on the ice, out of survival instinct, eventually adopt a perimeter attack from the boards.

As our friend Mike has hinted at and come right out and openly stated, sit Evan Rodrigues and replace him with a bigger, more effective body. E-Rod is best suited for play 1^st or 2^nd line Center. He doesn’t have the skill set to play Wing or bottom 6. If/When there is an injury to Crosby or Malkin, insert E-Rod in at Center, put him in a position of succeeding not a position for him to get tossed around like a rag doll.

Shake up the lines,

If Jason Zucker is a go, then the 1^st line needs to be Zucker – Crosby – Rakell. As I have written many times, Crosby needs to start shooting the puck and not looking for a back door play to Guentzel or Rust. Rakell and Zucker get to the net. Even if Sid doesn’t score, either Winger will get the garbage goals needed to win Playoff games. Moreover, both Zucker and Rakell are capable enough Wingers, when teams start backing off the passing lanes, Sid can once again start mixing in his favorite give and go plays (as long as he keeps mixing in honest drives to the net)

Rakell will also add that Center drive component, this team desperately needs, to 87’s line.

Put the Guentzel – Malkin – Rust line back together. As good as Guentzel is with Crosby, he is that much better with Malkin. Most importantly, with Malkin, the opponents will not be able to target Jake, they will be too busy watching Geno chasing 71 around to look for Guentzel. He will be able to find soft spots in the opposing Defense and his center will get him the puck.

With the bottom 6, play big bodies who aren’t afraid to play big. As long as they are healthy, the bottom 6 needs to be Danton Heinin, Jeff Carter, Kasperi Kapanen, Brian Boyle, Teddy Blueger, and Brock McGinn. When injuries necessitate changes in the bottom 6, do not, I repeat do not throw E-Rod in. He lacks the skill set for bottom 6 play. Use Radim Zohorna, Anthony Angello, or Drew O’Connor.

Defense

Saints preserve us, this is the weakest area on the team. The best thing our coaching staff can do is try and hide them. Forbid Dumoulin, Marino, Pettersson, and Ruhwedel from trying to skate the puck out. Pass it to a forward. And for my money, I agree with Mike, put Mark Friedman in there. In the history of our Penguins, there has been over 200 defensemen wear the black and gold; I would not rate Pettersson, Marino, or Ruhwedel in the top 100, and based solely on his play of late, Dumoulin wouldn’t make that cut either.

Perhaps, if the coaching staff reins the Defense in, and gets them playing to their strengths rather than trying to get them to mimic Bobby Orr, they will at least not embarrass themselves.

However, with no real tough defenders to support our Goalies and protect our crease, it will be open season on Penguins netminders. Even if the team lasts long enough to get Tristan Jarry back, it won’t be long before he is on the shelf again. He got hurt to begin with, because the Defense couldn’t protect him in the regular season, when referees actually use their whistles, in the post season, when the whistle remains in the ref’s pocket, he will get destroyed.

Goaltending

The skaters need to insulate these guys far better than they did during the regular season. Casey DeSmith has been Jekyll and Hyde all season. If he has to face too many odd man breaks before Jarry gets back, the season will be over before the team’s number 1 can take the ice.

Summing it up

Honestly, I am not going to get wishy-washy, sentimental over the ending of an era, for me the era ended about 3 years ago. Crosby, Malkin, and Letang may still be on this team, but none of three are as dominant as they once were and all need help when on the ice. Crosby may have won the team MVP, and I won’t argue with that. However he earned it more for the intrinsic value and leadership that he brings to the team, rather than the on-Ice contribution. Jake Guentzel really was the main offensive weapon on this team and Tristan Jarry, the defensive gem.

I am just going to sit back and watch whatever comes this spring, this team is already past my expectations. True, I would have preferred them to be sellers at the trade deadline and already move on, setting the table for the generation, but we are here now and I will just enjoy the moment.