Penguins Preview (2022-23): the Centers

Well our Boys of Winter open training camp today. So, to celebrate the return of hockey, after another way too early playoff exit, I figured a series of preview posts could be a good idea to catch people up with the changes that occurred to our Pittsburgh Penguins this off-season.

If you haven’t guessed by now, I can be a bit methodical, so let’s start with the team’s Centers. There are a couple of new faces in camp, but Coach Mike Sullivan has his same top 4 pivots returning from last season.

There was some speculation as to whether our Penguins would have all 4 of their Centers return for the start of another season. Evgeni Malkin was an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) going into the off-season and even though he hinted that he would want to return and retire a Penguin, there were some bumpy roads during the negotiations. However, GM Ron Hextall managed to get them all back and at team friendly prices.

There is some good news and some bad news with the team returning with the same 4 Centers that manned that position last season. On the plus side, looking at the table below, during 5 on 5 conditions, over the last three seasons all 4 of returning pivots can contribute to the team offensively, in terms of Goals (G), Points (PTs), and Shots on Goal (SOG) per 60 minutes of ice time. Perhaps more importantly is that all are on the positive side of the Goals For (GF)/Goals Against (GA).

(I used a three-year average to eliminate any anomalies)

Even though some fans would have liked to see Malkin gone his personal offensive production 5 on 5 has been better than our Captain’s (Sidney Crosby). And although his defensive numbers in terms of GF vs GA isn’t close to Crosby’s numbers, it is still on the positive side of that ratio and it isn’t the worst of the returnees GF%.

Now for the bad news; a quick look at ages tells anyone looking critically at our roster, our Centers are old (hockey old, not regular population old). The average age of our top 4 pivots entering camp is 34 years.

Why is that important tOR? Let’s look at that table again. I included a ratio of Games Played (GP) versus Team Games (TG) played.

These 4 skaters have accumulated a lot of man games missed. If we multiply those percentages against an 82-game schedule, Teddy Blueger will play 70 games this season, Jeff Carter – 75 games, Crosby – 65, and Malkin – 51. Now I don’t expect those percentages to play out quite that bad, hopefully, after their surgeries, Crosby and Malkin will not miss quite that many games. If they did that would represent 78-man games lost at Center. However, I would still expect to see in and around 40 – 50 man-games lost at Center, particularly if Sullivan continues to allow opponents to take liberties with our players.

With the realization that our Penguins will have many games lost at Center, the question now becomes who will fill in when one of the top 4 goes down to injury?

My guess is that Hextall signed Ryan Poehling for that inevitability. Maybe. Anything is possible. The lackluster of a season he had last season may be due to how bad the entire Montreal Canadiens team played. But, then again, maybe he was part of the reason for that race to grab the number 1 overall Draft Pick.

Personally, I am hoping Jordan Frasca will have a stunning first half of an AHL season, much like Jake Guentzel has in his first pro appearance. I didn’t see or hear much about him during Rookie Camp, but from the Game films that I watched of him, I am hoping his game translates well into the pro level.

I am not going to hold my breath though.

Sam Houde is not signed to a Penguins contract. He is just an invitee to camp. He needs to first earn an Entry Level Contract (ELC) before his name can be tossed into the hat.

If I were a betting man though, I think the laws of probability would suggest that with the number of players listed as Left Wings (LW) that can also play Center, the next man up line should start with Drew O’Connor, Radim Zohorna, or even Sam Poulin, after his Rookie Camp performance.

Predictions

As it stands right now I expect Crosby to still Center the top line. Skating with at least Guentzel and either Bryan Rust or Rickard Rakell I don’t see any slowing down of our Captain. He should still finish the season with somewhere around 30 G and 90 points.

Malkin will still pivot the second line. With the dearth of likely LWs for Malkin, I don’t see the big man maximaizing his ice time. I still see him getting his share of Gs and Pts but nothing compared to the potential that would be there with right line mates. In the back of my mind, I wonder how the second line would look with Rakell or Rust (whichever one isn’t playing with Crosby) flips to LW and putting Valterri Puustenin or Nathan Légaré on the Right Wing (RW).

I doubt Malkin wil play 82 games but I would think that even without the right line mates he will be on pace for a 40 G pace for an 82 GP season and be between 80 and 90 pts for that 82 GP. With the proper line mates I can see him easily putting up numbers higher than that.

Expect Carter to man the third line. Mind you, I would not get too upset to see Blueger get a little third line time at all but Carter will more than likely get that nod. Carter has shown over the last 3 seasons that he is still very durable and can still find the back of the net. He should still hover around a 20 G pace.

I do have concerns about his overall play though, after the last playoff season.

Finally, Blueger will anchor the 4^th line. Given the limited ice time the fourth line gets and the higher defensive zone starts they tend to get, I don’t see him netting 20 G or 4 Pts, but he has been slowly raising his own bar season after season and at 28 he is at his prime.