By all accounts, our Penguins did a lot of good things last night. Stats-wise, we dominated our blood-rival Capitals, piling up a 79-52 edge in shot attempts and a 47-32 advantage in shots on goal. We had 19 high-danger chances to the Caps’ 12. We struck for three, count ‘em, three power play goals.
And we lost, 4-3, in overtime.
Following a blazing 17-2 run, I guess a bit of a course correction is to be expected. As the old saying goes, you can’t win ‘em all. And we did manage to squeeze a point out of the affair.
Still, we’re backing into the All-Star break on an 0-1-3 slide. Worse yet, there are some disturbing trends coach Mike Sullivan and his staff will need to correct moving forward.
At this stage I’m going to dispense with a traditional game summary and ramble. Bear with me if you will.
After playing like a well-oiled machine through the first half of the season with each player doing his part, the Pens increasingly have become a one-trick pony…in more ways than one. During our mini-skid, a staggering seven of our nine goals have come with the man advantage. While it’s great that the power play is finally clicking, thanks in no small part to Evgeni Malkin’s return, our boys aren’t scoring 5v5. A huge concern.
Along those lines (no pun intended), secondary scoring has all but evaporated. It’s as if Scotty beamed up our bottom nine forwards to the starship Enterprise along with Kirk, Bones and Spock. Indeed, only a handful of players…basically the Sidney Crosby–Jake Guentzel–Bryan Rust line along with Malkin and Kris Letang…are contributing.
Last night the five guys not named Moe accounted for all three of our goals and all nine of our points. In fact, during our four-game skid, they’ve accumulated all seven black-and-gold goals and all 23 of our points. No one else has tallied so much as a second assist!
You have to go all the way back to Brian Boyle’s third-period dazzler against Arizona eight days ago to find another player registering on the scoresheet. Even then the fab five dominated, notching four of our six goals and 10 of our 14 points. Extraordinary, and perhaps not in a good way.
The list of players who’ve gone stone cold is egregious and lengthy. Previously piping hot, Evan Rodrigues hasn’t scored a goal since January 6, a span of 14 games. A frequent resident of Sully’s dog house, Kasperi Kapanen has one tally in his past 13, and that one an excuse-me goal that glanced in off his skate. Hustling Brock McGinn has one goal in his past dozen despite seeing prime ice time next to Geno. Danton Heinen, currently nursing an upper-body injury, hasn’t tickled the twine since December 19. Zach Aston-Reese has one goal…period.
I could go right down the lineup and cite a similar paucity in production. But you get the picture.
Injuries have certainly played a part. No doubt we miss jack-of-all-trades Teddy Blueger, scrappy Jason Zucker and Heinen, all on the shelf at the present. It’s been a challenge for Sullivan and the coaching staff to cobble together three effective lines, let alone four.
A mild beef. Sully seems to overlook combinations that work. During their brief time together, the Malkin-Radim Zohorna–Jeff Carter trio dominated in terms of possession. Sullivan hasn’t gone back to it. Likewise, Rodrigues and Kapanen displayed terrific chemistry earlier in the season. Again, for whatever reasons, they haven’t been reunited.
Too, Sullivan seems insistent on playing E-Rod at right wing. The numbers clearly show he’s far more productive at center and left wing.
Granted, with so many moving pieces, it’s a difficult puzzle to figure out. But right now, the coaching staff isn’t putting guys in a position that gives them the greatest chance to succeed. Hopefully, this can be resolved over the break.
I’ll throw one more log onto the worry fire. Tristan Jarry hasn’t been Tristan Jarry Superman of late, at least not the one who mimicked the Rock of Gibraltar early on. Over his past nine games he’s posted a save percentage of .897, .887 over his past four.
While he’s faced down a plethora of odd-man breaks in recent weeks behind our watery team defense…certainly a contributing factor…you wonder if Tristan’s wearing down under an uber-heavy workload (second in the league in games played).
I understand the temptation to ride a hot goalie, especially when backup Casey DeSmith’s been iffy at best. But Sullivan needs to figure out how to shield Jarry down the stretch, even if it means sacrificing a precious point or two or three during the regular season.
Anyway…my concerns for what they’re worth.
Puckpourri
Rust (two) and Malkin (one) scored for the Pens. Dmitry Orlov (two), Nick Dowd and old friend Daniel Sprong tickled the twine for the Caps.
Since the start of the New Year, Rust has been on an incredible tear. He has a dozen goals and 23 points over a 12-game span. Likewise, his linemates have been piping hot as well. Sid’s tallied seven goals and 16 points in his past 10 games. With 23 goals and 46 points in 40 games, Guentzel’s been lights out all season long. He’s only been held off the scoresheet eight times. Talk about consistency.
Letang has four goals and 22 points in 16 games in 2022. Malkin’s averaging better than a point per game (5 goals, 8 assists) in the 12 games since his return.
We enter the All-Star break in third place in the Metro (27-11-8, 62 points), two points behind the division-leading Hurricanes and Rangers. The ‘Canes have four games in hand. We have one in hand on the Blueshirts.
Rick,
Your comments on Jarry are spot on. He let in something like 4 goals on 30 shots against the Caps and the prior two games weren’t much better.
The Penguins dump and cycle alot. I personally find its a boring approach to offense and second it depends on fast, physical and tenacious forechecking to work. Losing Zucker and Blueger certainly didn’t help them and Rust ( a normally active player) was clearly out of gas in the games against Seattle and Winnepeg. I like Boyle, but he’s not fast and where Blueger always gave us a short handed goal opportunity on the PK, Boyle does not. Even the loss of Lafferty has incrementally worsened the hustle and forechecking needed to make the dump and cycle approach work.
On the D-side, Dumolin has not played particularly well over the full three periods and on any given night LeTang is either one of the best d-men in hockey or he’s making really dumb plays (like the cross ice pass that came back as a short handed goal against the Caps). I also think the D is pinching a bit less than they did which again makes the dump and cycle less productive. I think the D realizes that they don’t have as much speed in the forwards to help cover them if the pinch goes bad and so they don’t pinch as much.
On the subject of Malkin, he’s definitely helped the powerplay, and I personally think he’s playing “better” than he did last year. He’s more physical and seems to generally skate with a bit more energy than last season.
If the Pens don’t get speed and forechecking with aggressive D support on the offensive side…. they may not make the playoffs.
Just my two cents worth.
Hello Lightning,
Sorry to taking so long to respond. I’ve taken a little break from the blog and didn’t see your comment until this morning.
First, let me welcome you to Penguin poop. And second, a very well-thought and astute two cents! You did an excellent job of pinpointing and analyzing what’s gone wrong with our Pens in recent weeks. As you noted, we rely very heavily on our speed and forecheck to turn the oppositions ‘d’ and apply heat. With guys like Blueger, Heinen and Zucker out of the lineup, we’ve certainly lost a step.
Another spot-on observation…our ‘d’ isn’t pinching or joining the rush as frequently (and when they do it seems to be ill-timed). I recall Steve Mears commenting earlier this season that the Pens were moving around the ice as a cohesive five-man unit (like an “amoeba”) which is part of why we were so effective. That’s not happening as much.
I’m liable to draw a broadside from Other Rick, but the team’s structure seems to have come undone with Malkin’s return. I’m not blaming Geno…just that the team seems to play a looser game when he’s in the lineup. I’m specifically thinking of Letang, who I thought was having a brilliant season prior to Malkin’s return. However, in the last handful of games he seems to be returning to his old high-risk ways.
I vaguely recall the same thing happening last year. Then Geno seemed to embrace a more disciplined game and he and the team went on a tear until he hurt his knee against Boston.
Rick
Rick
I’m in total alignment with you on Malkin ‘s impact on the 5 v 5 play of the team.
Rodriguez seemed to be on track to potentially be an impact center before Malkins return and now he’s contributing but clearly his play is less impactful as you noted in an earlier article with him at right wing . ( shades of Jerome Iginla).
Changing direction…
If we can only afford one resigning ( LeTang, Rust or Malkin), I’d only consider LeTang and Rust and I’d be wary of long term extensions. Both are critical today but that’s on a team where their hit to the cap is lower than it will be , ( hence more talent around them now than in the future in theory at least) and they are as young as they are gonna be. ….and it still doesn’t seem to be enough for the team to go deep into the playoffs.
I think the Pens have as good of a chance this year as they are gonna get for a couple of years and the focus in the draft/ trade needs to be a big generational defenseman, a goalie that can challenge Jarry, and forwards that can play Sullys uptempo game style. Izerman is essentially going that route in Detroit after doing that in Tampa.
Really like your articles and insights. The blog is the best out there.
Thank you for your kind words about our blog. We’re really just a bunch of Pens fans who like to voice our opinions. At least in my case, wrong ones a lot of the time…lol
Again, very insightful observations. I agree that speed is important, but we do need a power element as well. We don’t do so well against bigger teams that are structurally sound and make it difficult to penetrate the prime scoring areas, like Calgary and even the Kings. They tend to push us to the perimeter.
Thank goodness we do have Jeff Carter. I think Zohorna has promise…and O’Connor, too. If they can be worked into the mix, it should help. Also would like to see us have one defenseman who can play a physical game, but I don’t see us adding that type of player. Sullivan seems to have an aversion to physical players and likes puck movers back there.
Wish we could sign Rust, Letang and Malkin, but I’m not sure how that’s going to work. Not that I’m predicting a Cup, but agree that this is probably our last best chance to nab one for the foreseeable future. A rebuild/retool of some type is coming…
Rick
Rick,
You will not draw a broad side from me, just a warning shot.
I was the first one n this board or any other that I read to recognize the 2015-2016 team was a team of destiny. I called the 2016-2017 season also, that the team would win on their Goaltending and MAF had 2 SO, while Murray had 3 that season. I called the off-season, saying although I did understand that the reasoning behind letting MAF go but that he several more seasons in him (while the MAF haters said he was through) and I called it when I said trading for Reaves was asinine because Smurf lovin’ Sullivan would never play him. I also called it when at the trade deadline I said trading for Bressard was a huge mistake, while everyone else was enamored of the “Jewell” of the deadline (I didn’t want to deal and if I did I said the only player in Ottawa that I would want was Pageau). I also called the sweep from the playoffs the following year and the 1st round bow outs over the last 2 years as well. I really, as of yet, haven’t pulled an I told you so.
I realize that; A) at some point I could be wrong, but B) more importantly, you and all the Malkin haters, like the MAF haters are too trapped in your personal prejudices to see anything objectively.
Obviously, the below .500% Pnts% of the teams before Malkin came back vs the above .500 Pnts% of the teams played since Malkin was back had nothing to do with the difference in the teams fortunes. And just as obvious the below .500 teams played before Malkin returned knew how and did impede Penguins fore-checkers as well as the above .500 teams, that is why there is a disparity in their records. Just as Obvious is the fact that the team D isn’t pinching anymore, since Malkin has returned as evidenced by 4 of Letang’s 5 G coming after Malkins return and Matheson scoring 3 G in the first 34 GP and 3 G in the last 12 GP. The increase in those 2-“D” men’s Goal scoring could not be due to the complaints they were hearing in the lack of their G production before Malkin returned. Nor could Letang’s ego (asking for an $8 mil/yr – 5yr contract) pumped up by All Star talk and the accolades or his every season Jekyll and Hyde make up account for his current streak of mistakes.
As for last season, go back and take a look, without Zucker on his line, Malkin’s 5 on 5 Corsi was 69.91% and his 5 on 5 Goal Differential was 64.71%. Therefore, any problems with the team had to be Malkin and not a rock headed coach that kept trying to pound a round peg into a square hole.
Pray Rick, pray for me to finally be wrong, my friend, and not just for the team’s sake, but because at the end of this April, when we all are dreading that long summer of Pirates failures, while Sullivan has coached the team to another in a long string of early Tee times, I will issue that which I have been hesitant to do. I am saving up for a very big, fat “I told you so!” to get me through the pain I can see coming; barring Divine intervention. (I feel like Gen Buford in the movie “Gettysburg” getting there first and looking over the ground)
Rick
Our secondary scoring has definitely regressed although I think some of that should be expected. Really when
you look at our current lineup other than the Crosby line who can we rely on to score – Carter, Kappy, McGinn
and possibly E-Rod. Hopefully Big “Z” can step up and bury a couple of goals
I get so tired of hearing about possession numbers which to me don’t mean anything if you can translate that
into a goal or two. I mentioned this in a previous comment but I hope management isn’t falling into the same
trap as last year and not add some toughness prior to the playoffs or will again be an early exit.
GO PENS