At this stage of the summer, our Penguins resemble “a jigsaw puzzle with a couple of pieces gone,” to borrow from the old Jim Croce classic, Bad, Bad Leroy Brown. Actually, “pieces out of place” is more appropriate.
Specifically, we have a glut of nine defensemen under one-way NHL contracts, including newcomers Jeff Petry and Ty Smith, while appearing to be at least one bottom-six forward shy. Not to mention the fact that we’re roughly $480 K over the cap limit according to CapFriendly following the (generous) Kasperi Kapanen signing.
Obviously, something has to give before the start of the season.
Smith can be sent to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton without passing through waivers, which would pare $863 K from the payroll and make us compliant, right?
Well, no. That’s because CapFriendly doesn’t list Pierre-Olivier Joseph and his $825 cap hit on the current roster. Even with Smith pared from the roster, we’d still be about $440 K over.
So who should we move?
Defenseman Mark Friedman is a likely candidate. He isn’t waiver exempt and would likely be claimed if we attempted to send him to the Baby Pens, lopping $775 K off the books. Personally, I’d hate to lose Friedman. I love his feistiness, not to mention his speed, versatility and penchant for jumping into the play.
Now that we have Jan Rutta in tow, Chad Ruhwedel could also be a casualty, although certainly not of his own doing. Chad did a solid job in a third-pairing role last season and has been a sturdy No. 7 defenseman throughout his career. Hold the phone on moving him, at least for now.
If GM Ron Hextall seeks to free up a bigger chunk of dinero? Brian Dumoulin and his $4.1 million cap hit could be on the move, perhaps to a team like Arizona that has plenty of cap space. It’s no secret that our heretofore stalwart endured a difficult 2021-22 campaign. Still, trading “Dumo” would likely destabilize the left side while leaving it in the hands of unproven kids like Joseph and Smith. Which would also create the not-so-small challenge of finding a suitable partner for Kris Letang.
Ironically, the player I don’t think we should move? The oft-speculated-to-be-on-the-block Marcus Pettersson.
This isn’t to suggest MP is without blemish. There’s his cap hit for one, a shade over $4 million for the next three seasons. Another Jimmy Rutherford overpay.
Pettersson’s shot won’t break a pane of glass. Although always willing to compete and even mix it up on occasion, his gangly 6’3” 177-pound frame mitigates against him being a physical force.
Yet for all his perceived flaws, Marcus is an effective stay-at-home defenseman. Very effective.
According to data provided by JFresh, Pettersson’s overall WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 74 percent over the past three seasons. His even-strength defensive WAR? An uber-impressive 97 percent. Last season his numbers were very similar, 75 percent WAR overall and 96 percent on the defensive side of the ledger, which speaks to his consistency as well as performance.
Although decidedly not an offensive threat, Marcus handles the puck well and makes a nice first pass.
Sure, he appears awkward at times. But the bottom line? He gets the job done while serving as a stabilizer for his partners. Jack Johnson and the recently departed John Marino played their best hockey for the black and gold when paired with the rangy Swede.
I think he’d do the same for high-profile newcomer Petry, who works best when paired with a defensive-minded partner. A role Pettersson seems born to play.
Another possibility? Dealing Pettersson and shifting Rutta to the left side on the second pairing, which would open up a full-time slot for Ruhwedel, not to mention considerable cap space. But beware. Rutta’s three-year overall WAR is a less-than-stellar 33 percent and his even strength defensive WAR is 54 percent. Metrics that pale in comparison to MP’s.
No, Pettersson’s not perfect. But he may be the perfect partner for Petry. Or at least as close as we can get among our current batch of blueliners.
Hey Rick,
Don’t want to throw a wet blanket out there but you know me, I always like to look at as many sides of a problem as I can; chemistry is a very important factor, chemistry between defensive partners. Last season. Over the last 3 seasons Pettersson’s best pairing has been with Letang, in terms of GF% 5-on-5 (68.18%, TOI 213:51) but they were not paired together that much. His next best pairing has been with Marino (53.47%, TOI: 1518:31) but Marino is no longer here. After that, Justin Schultz ( 51.16%, TOI: 482:28) But Schultz isn’t here anymore either. After that, the only other pairing that Pettersson. In no other pairing with a TOI at or above 100 minutes has Pettersson been above the break even point 50%.
Petry is a solid D man, I would hope that he could play with Pettersson, but the question before the court is, “will Pettersson be an asset or an anchor to that pairing? with Ruhwedel he was a 40.74%.
Just throwing that out there Rick
This what they call in the trade “p-hacking.”
Looking at with or without you stats are hardly P-Hacking, it is more of trying to understand the a potential confounding variable. Denying the impact the skill sets of teammates and opponents present on the ice is far more misleading.
At heart, P-hacking is the practice of making comparisons until you find the one that support your hypothesis. Denying that fact that variables are not linearly separable is even more misleading.
I am very familiar with the term P Hacking but thank you for providing me with your understanding of the term. I apologize if you read my response in such a way as to interpret it as variables being linearly separable.
And thank you, you make my point for me, players do not exist in a bubble on the ice. They act and react to their opponents actions and reactions as well as the behaviors of their teammates. As I wrote above, looking at with or without you is not P Hacking but the first step in trying to understand the confounding variables that impact the results on the ice. I did not state or infer that it was the be-all-to-end-all, nor have I advanced any hypothesis at all right now, I just cautioned that there are many variables at which to look.
If you are interested, there are other tools out there that allow a person to look at whole 5 man units or 4 man units etc. Please do not interpret that as me saying that is these tools are the be-all-to-end-all either. One would have to also look at each 5 man combination vs the opposing 5 man combination.
I may be impossible to distill every combination of teammate and opponent. It would certainly require more than single dimensional or 2 dimensional thinking as well as humility and the willingness to try and understand all of the moving parts. One would have to be able to see the forest and the trees at the same time.
Petterson isn’t much of an overpay, if any. It must be remembered that the first year off his ELC he signed for his ELC amount t($894,167) to give the Pens cap relief. If you tack that on to his current 5 yea contract ($20,125,875), he gets *exactly* $3.5 million/year over the 6 year span, which is at worst is a several hundred K high. No, Rutherford did not make a mistake. He simply sucked cap space out of the first year.
Zeidel
You make a good point. Also, considering the total cap number hasn’t increased due to Covid his
salary would even look more appealing. GO PENS.
Rick
Hope you’re well. It would seem to me that if the Pen’s are in a win now mode the Pettersson will be the guy
Hextall looks to move in a trade. I do believe someone has to go in order for the Pen’s to shore up there
bottom six. Right now they remind me of the Lakers (NBA) with most of their money tied up in the top 6 and
very little depth coming off the bench. Not a good situation to be in.
Personally to get done what needs to be done it looks to me as if Hextall will have to move several players –
most likely a wing and a defenseman.
On another note how about the Florida Panthers?? Tkachuk, Bennett and Hornqvist on the same
team? Wow you talk about Havoc? Lol. GO PENS